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Interesting: Deflation Hits Oldest Profession In The World: Hookers By The Numbers -

Red Paul

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Deflation hasn't come to Montreal, at least not if you go by the Bank of Canada and my perhaps faulty memory.

When I started, back in 1999, the typical escort rate in Montreal was just edging up to $140 an hour. Now it's hitting $200, with some holdouts still at $180 (bless them). The Bank's CPI calculator says that $140 in 1999 is equal to $190 today. In other words, not much of a change one way or the other.
 

mauricevachon

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Red Paul is right. The Economist does not have a clue what it is talking about....prices are going up everywhere...
 

gugu

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So, yes, the average hourly rate of reviewed girls, particularly in the USA, has gone down. That really does not matter, because we do not view escorts as all being the same, which is what a study of averages with the only distinguishing characteristics being items like BBBJ, takes as a given.

Well of course sexual services markets are segmented. It's hard to know if each market is well represented in each and every review board, including the one on which they made their census (I guess it's TER). It's obvious economics does not have the data to make thorough analysis distinguishing markets, including the very large erotic massage market in Montréal. Prices in the rising MP market, itself stratified, tend to be lower. TE gave no specific city examples on prices trends. We don't know really what they have found specifically for Montréal. Also, the recession has obviously contributed to lower prices all over the world as the the intrusion of migrant workers in the the higher end markets in Europe and here also to a lesser degree.
 

steed

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Intersting article in The Economist "

The Economist is a serious magazine covering world events , a sort of intelligent persons Time magazine . The August 8-15 edition has a long , serious ,thought provoking article on the effects of the digital age on prostitution . It treats the oldest profession as a business case , with an analysis of preffered options , rates of return , success factors , barriers to entry etc in major cities world wide . An interersting read !!
 

gugu

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Brook Magnanti's comment

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/se...-would-decriminalising-prostitution-mean.html

By Dr Brooke Magnanti, formerly known as Belle de Jour1:34PM BST 15 Aug 2014

This week, following in the footsteps of the World Health Organisation (WHO) and The Lancet, among others, The Economist came out firmly in favour of decriminalising prostitution.

Citing arguments to do with public health (as recently highlighted at the AIDS 2014 conference in Melbourne) and workers' rights, the cover story was devoted to an impassioned defence of full decriminalisation.

Currently, in the UK, sex work is technically legal - contrary to popular opinion (mainly influenced by cop dramas). Selling sex is not in itself illegal, but pimps, brothels and soliciting all are. While this sounds a reasonable compromise, it does mean that sex workers are often forced to work alone, or risk being arrested if (say) two escorts work out of the same flat. The general distrust of police has also led to serious problems, as highlighted by the Ugly Mugs project - which allows the sharing of information on potentially dangerous clients, and makes it easier to report assault.

Full decriminalisation in the UK would, estimates suggest, add £5.3 billion to the GDP (while trying to estimate the exact size of the sex industry is always dodgy ground, it's safe to assume that incomes may currently be underreported across the industry, out of fear of police intrusion).

But what exactly would it look like?

In the Netherlands and Germany, legalisation means that only licensed sex workers, working in particular premises (such as Germany's brothels or Amsterdam's famous windows), are working legally. This is also true in the US state of Nevada, where only the highly-regulated and very restictive brothels are legal. Those arrangements have come under fire - by none more so than the sex workers themselves - for fostering abuses in the system that make it, in effect, worse than pimping.

With decriminalisation, by contrast, sex workers could work anywhere - even from their homes, or with other prostitutes - without breaking the law. Legalisation gives the employers the balance of power; decriminalisation returns rights to the workers, making them free agents.

According to The Economist, the move of sex workers online is a boon to the industry and already allows them increased freedom. Sex workers can build 'personal brands' and screen their clients, as well as give and receive feedback. They can operate on a flexible, freelance basis and manage bookings around their other commitments. They can share health information with customers. In other words, the internet is making prostitution more like a regular 'service industry'.


The suggestion that prostitution should be decriminalised has, of course, met with opposition - especially from groups promoting the so-called 'Swedish Model' - which criminalises the purchase of sex, rather than the sale. Scotland considered and rejected such a law last year. While in Ireland and Northern Ireland, the issue has been under debate for some time without a clear outcome.

The Economist piece has attracted much online attention from the anti-sex work crowd. But what is noticeable is how quiet these same voices were when the WHO and Lancet drew the same conclusions about decriminalisation. Why? Is it perhaps easier to attack economic ideology rather than argue public health with the medical establishment. But while neither an economic, or health-based, argument is ideal when the crux of the issue is securing individual rights, to many who have campaigned on behalf of sex workers it is at least a sign of growing support for evidence-based rather than prejudice-based policy.

The economic arguments are rarely taken into account by those who support the 'Swedish model' (or End Demand). By mistaking services for products, they imagine fewer customers would result in fewer sex workers. But this is unrealistic - the assumption that the number of clients and the number of prostitutes is necessarily linked is in itself faulty. If fewer people ate at fast food outlets, would the minimum wage workers there be better off without having to do anything else? Exactly.

The downward turn in income - that you can get 'more bang for your buck' - has been noted by the Economist (and apocryphally elsewhere for several years). It's fair to say that fewer sex workers operating in London earn as much as I did, per hour, ten years on.
According to the Economist, the picture is much the same worldwide. This has not, however, resulted in less supply.
This is in part because people with criminal records, or outed as sex workers, often find it difficult to get into other employment (in some states in the US they are even put on sex offenders' lists). In part because - even in those places where the supply of sex has been decriminalised - women are still highly stigmatised once known as sex workers. And in part because the economic opportunities in general have not been great for some years now.

Yes, more sex workers advertising on the web and the proliferation of review sites and apps, make it easier for both sellers and buyers to compare the market. But the cost of living continues to rise, and those who wish to restrict prostitution and advocate the 'Swedish model' rarely, if ever, propose viable alternatives to the work or campaign to eliminate criminal records.

For many, this will be the first introduction to the workers' rights approach, which is only just hitting mainstream coverage (as espoused by some such as sex worker turned writer Melissa Gira Grant). Such arguments reveal the interesting ways in which workers' rights can and do overlap with individual freedoms.

If that means more minds are opened to a rethink of the current laws, for example incorporating the Merseyside Model - where police have built links with sex workers and declared violence against them to be a 'hate crime' - then all the better.
 

Siocnarf

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My hypothesis is that the girls on the lower end of the pricing scale were available years ago but were not reviewed on escort boards, as they worked offline.

That's my interpretation also. The market in the streets has been declining as they move indoors and online and this has little or nothing to do with the recent criminal laws or the economy.

The problem is often that people who make these studies know little about the industry and don't know what they are looking at. I'm always dubious when I see people trying to study prostitution by numbers. They lack the scientific rigor, which is to make sure that what you measure really represents what you study and to know what are the limitations of your methodology.

I'm sure the internet reviews have increased the average quality and success rate of encounters. So in a sense it is definitely true that you get more bang for your buck, even if prices stayed stable. Also, the ability to find good clients more easily can be more valuable that higher rates to the seller. Not having to spend 6h standing in the freezing rain is probably seen as an improvement.
 

daydreamer41

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That's my interpretation also. The market in the streets has been declining as they move indoors and online and this has little or nothing to do with the recent criminal laws or the economy.

The problem is often that people who make these studies know little about the industry and don't know what they are looking at. I'm always dubious when I see people trying to study prostitution by numbers. They lack the scientific rigor, which is to make sure that what you measure really represents what you study and to know what are the limitations of your methodology.

I'm sure the internet reviews have increased the average quality and success rate of encounters. So in a sense it is definitely true that you get more bang for your buck, even if prices stayed stable. Also, the ability to find good clients more easily can be more valuable that higher rates to the seller. Not having to spend 6h standing in the freezing rain is probably seen as an improvement.

I am not sure that you and Patron are correct and the article in discussion is not correct.

I have seen prices in the US, particular the NY area stagnate. And those prices are not of the lower end, and it's not the higher end either. Why wouldn't demand for sexual services slip if the amount of discretionary spending slips?

Among the middle tier providers ($250 to $350 per hour in NYC area) and some agencies, I see they do have specials when they are experiencing low call demand. They will discount $20 to $40 per hour.

There is one trend I do see, and that is the number of girls pushing short stay or quickies for less, but they become higher volume, which I would not be interested in. But for a guy who has just $100 extra at the end of the month, he will spend it for a 20 minute quickie. To me that is risky.

I think in Montreal the agencies follow the trend. If one agency pushes the price up slightly, the others follow. If they are slow, they may have some specials. Guys may complain at first, but they get complacent, except the change. If they push their fees too high, I think you would see the demand drop off, but not totally.
 

marc7

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Deflation hasn't come to Montreal, at least not if you go by the Bank of Canada and my perhaps faulty memory.

When I started, back in 1999, the typical escort rate in Montreal was just edging up to $140 an hour. Now it's hitting $200, with some holdouts still at $180 (bless them). The Bank's CPI calculator says that $140 in 1999 is equal to $190 today. In other words, not much of a change one way or the other.
140 but no gfe... No internet , all the adds were on newspaper. Meaning for the 180 we get more service , Internet brought information so its easier to find a good quality/price for a courtisane. Rent went up , gas and electricity went up last 15 years meaning that the 40$ were to cover more for the expense than for the pocket.
There is two type of economist , one that predicts the future and the other one that explain why the first one were wrong :)

http://www.wnyc.org/story/233661-how-deep-shadow-economy/
 

daydreamer41

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Another factor is the greater availability of service offerings, such as anal sex, of the younger generation of girls. 5-10 years ago, I had two favorites in NYC that were $300-$400 an hour. Pretty standard services, and I liked both of them. My current favorite in NYC at $500 an hour is equally cute, but loves bondage and getting spanked in addition to the standard escort services that includes BBBJTC. A decade ago, I could just not find pretty, girls in their early 20s that offered fetishes, BBBJTC, and full service; I find this younger generation of girls to be far more open-minded and fun. So I compare the $500 to the $300-$400 and call bullshit on deflation, while forgetting that my more expensive car now has XM satellite radio with a CD player instead of just FM/AM/Cassette.

Maybe there has not been any inflation for a standard CBJ/CFS service. As Mark a Twain said, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Well, the level of service between generations is an odd metric.

In the 1970s for an extra $20, young college (NYU, Hunter) girls would do BBFS. They were all on birth control and if you came inside them, well, they wouldn't flinch. Rates were $100 to $130 an hour back then in NYC. These places were well known in storefronts. You could walk into them off the street on the first floor.

Funny, ten years ago and even before that, I could find girls that would do bbbj rather regularly in the Big Apple for $200 and less per hour. They were in their early 20's and quite attractive. I guess I knew where to go.
 

marc7

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From the late 1980s through the next 20 years, the AIDS "crisis" reduced the availability of GFE services. When the research showed that much of if was merely overreaction and propaganda, the current generation has adjusted accordingly.

aids is still a deadly disease , at the time nobody knew what it was then education came ... and not protecting yourself is playing Russian roulette . The best medecine is prevention ;)
 

Siocnarf

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Some of the analysis is questionable. Since prices vary greatly from city to city, it is impossible to compare prices for body/hair/breast size globally. Those differences could be due to their different distribution in different cities. I’d be very surprise if the average escort could really charge 40$ more just for having longer hair.

I'd be curious to see their analysis on the price of regular dating vs escorts and if that also changed over time :D
 

marc7

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Some of the analysis is questionable. Since prices vary greatly from city to city, it is impossible to compare prices for body/hair/breast size globally. Those differences could be due to their different distribution in different cities. I’d be very surprise if the average escort could really charge 40$ more just for having longer hair.

I'd be curious to see their analysis on the price of regular dating vs escorts and if that also changed over time :D

Why its hard to measure its because its illegal ... The only way to measure is to be on the inside .
Or can do a complex algorithm by just calling a thousand of sp throw North America hopping to a plus minus 20% of error.
We can look at rent , phone , internet , price of adds then subtract that from the price of service , and it will give you a good idea of the net income . The difference of price between montreal and T.O could be only the price of rent or other factors..... gessing that the offer and demand is equal in both city .
TER is also a great source of info if someone knows how to compile in an usefull form all the data.... still not every sp is on ter...
 

BookerL

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140 but no gfe... No internet , all the adds were on newspaper. Meaning for the 180 we get more service , Internet brought information so its easier to find a good quality/price for a courtisane. Rent went up , gas and electricity went up last 15 years meaning that the 40$ were to cover more for the expense than for the pocket.
There is two type of economist , one that predicts the future and the other one that explain why the first one were wrong :)

http://www.wnyc.org/story/233661-how-deep-shadow-economy/
There was different types of escorts 15 to 20 years back ,I was a booker owner back then not only news papers where used but the yellow pages that actually where the higher end clients where coming from the news paper where low end to mid class .
And I had girls that where book at $250 per hour back then with a inflation calculator amounts to $377 in today's dollars.
To carry studies in a underground market is very unreliable .
Had a new partner in 2004 some escorts agencies where booking girls at $90 for a hour ,that is just 10 years ago .
Four reputable agencies from JDM where competing at that price !
Studies !Hummmmm
BookerL
 

Siocnarf

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Yes, and also the average price per hour is no indication of how much money is being spent/earned in total. One makes 120/h, another 180/h and some 600/h. But we don't know how many clients each of them sees on average. Compare the average price of a meal between McDonald's and the Ritz-Carlton. That average means nothing, because McDonald's has a lot more clients. You can't assign the same weight to an indy who sees 4 clients per months and one who sees 4 per day.

Another problem is what kind of average they use. In my example above, the arithmetic average would be 300. But only 235 if we use geometric mean instead of arithmetic, and the median is 180. With the arithmetic average, the very high values are given more weight when the distribution is not uniform. If the 600 drops to 400 and the others stay identical, the arithmetic drops from 300 to 230, a huge drop. But the geometric drops only from 235 to 205 and the median stays the same.
 

BookerL

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Many agencies does not operate on escort forums their statistic are not included !
Being present on search engine ranking first page will provide many clients .And no reviews outside of your purview !
Its a very complicated business to analyse .
The reality may exceed the numbers .
And the average clients seen by agency SP exceeds 4 per shift ,4 one hour calls is not enough most of the time to keep a girl happy !
Warmest Regards
BookerL
 

gugu

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Patron a sample of N=180000 has got to represent something. Is it biaised? Of course it is. It's limited to one very big forum. It's a forum census as a matter of fact. If you want to stretch the line, you could say it's like surveying only catholics to predict election results in Canada. I could also lament that we are ignorant about the erotic massage industry. Is it included? It is very important in Montréal.

I think it's safe to assume that the massage industry is as big as combined street and outcall prostitution in metropolitan Montréal. It has grown as a substitution good for both, driven of course by lower prices and increased security. My personnal experience is between 100$ and a 140$/hour.

In regards with Montréal, I'd suspect most merb contributors are mainly using agency and indy services, a large chunk of those advertizing on merb. They pretty much stayed the same give or take 20$. Howeve, if erotic massage established itself as a lower priced substitution good, the result is lower average price of ALL transactions. TE does not teach us anything about the total amount of money spent in prostitution, neither to total number of transactions. It speaks only of price per transaction.

It seems obvious to me that the huge Western Europe markets were completely changed in the last 20 years, migrant workers having progressively invaded most of their segments pushing prices downward. IMHO, this is the best interpretation of the general price curve disclosed by the TE in addition to the recession.
 

Siocnarf

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Patron a sample of N=180000 has got to represent something. Is it biaised? Of course it is.

Don't forget that this number is spread over 15 years, with probably very few at the beginning and a lot today. The representation of each country over time probably varies a lot also. It would be better to do statistics by country and see if you observe a decrease in each. The best would be to have different studies with different methods and groups all showing a similar decrease. I'm sure many other people have studied this, but I haven't looked for them. Like you say it's obvious that in some countries immigration is responsible for some deflation.

Having a bias is not always a problem if you know exactly what it is. But the problem here is that the bias today and 15 years ago can be very different on that forum. We have no way to know that we are looking at the same ''group'' over time. Doing ''averages'' is also meaningless with that kind of data in my opinion. I think it would be better to look at normal values (the ones that are the most frequent).

Many merb users also use MP, but it is impossible to discuss price/service openly, so there is no record to study. We also fall into the question of what is a sexual service. The article focused on complete intercourse, and I honestly have no idea what is the % of MP where you can get ''real'' sex. Even in the same place you sometimes don't know what will be available from one masseuse to the next. In that respect I don't know if we can say that MP have a higher share than escorts.

In my experience there are two categories of escorts in Montreal, the 120-140/h range and the 180-220 range. I have less experience with MP, but to me it seemed like less bang for my buck. The ones I saw in the past were comparable to the 120/h escorts in term of look and service but the total price was 150 or more including entrance fee and tip.
 

Siocnarf

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Find a TER reviewed provider who has been in business for 7 years, determine if she has put on weight or has otherwise deteriorated in looks, and, if she has not deteriorated or moved to a location, go back through her reviews and profile and see if she has reduced her hourly rate. I repeat a lot with my favorite escorts and I cannot think of a single one that has reduced her rates over time. Most have increased them.

This is true, and I've seen 120$/h agency escort become 180$/h GFE indies. But once again this has nothing to do with inflation/deflation. Women who stay long in the business often have the ''vocation'' for that job. As they gain experience, they increase their value, they also know their value better and can better market their skills. Bad hookers who get old will have to lower their prices. Many quit after a while. But many skilled ones are able to increase their prices when they go indy. At the same time, they often take less clients and do longer appointments as they move upmarket.

Also, the numbers of sex workers and clients are very different. The average $$$ a sex worker earns and the average $$$ a client pays can be quite different. I expect that the group of low-end providers have a larger client base, so the average client pays less than the average escort earns.

From the point of view of the provider, having sex is only part of the job. A lot of it is attracting clients/waiting/moving around, working on their ads, etc. So comparing how much they earn per client does not really tell you how much they earn per hour ''on duty''.
 
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