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Thread: NFL picks for Week 3

  1. #1

    NFL picks for Week 3

    OK you gambling addicts, here it goes:

    Best picks

    Saints (+3,5) agt Vikings: Minnesota in complete disarray right now

    Chiefs (+2,5) agt Broncos: KC defense is for real, Jake "the mistake" Plummer is not

    Jags (+2,5) agt Jets: things even with C. Martin and B. Leftwich playing. game worthy of watching just because of the Jags' freakish WR Matt Jones

    Buccaneers straight up over Packers
    Cowboys straight up over 49ers
    Carolina straight up over Miami

    Games to avoid:

    Steelers (-3) over Patriots DO NOT BET agt. NE taking a dive 2 straight games

    Bengals (-3) over Bears Not sold on Cincy yet, now they play a great defense and a team can can pound it on the ground

  2. #2
    Retired veteran hobbyist
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    JaJ's Week 3 NFL picks

    Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Indy, Jets, Minnesota, Philly, TB, Rams, Seattle, Dallas, NE, San Diego, KC.

    I have an 85% success rate on my picks.....good luck everyone!

  3. #3

    NFL picks for Week 3

    Angel...I like your way of thinking about the Pats but I think they are going to have some trouble early on this year. I'll take the Steelers and the winner buys a couple of beers when I hit the city in three weeks.

    Beantowner

  4. #4

    NFL picks for week 3

    Bean Towner,

    last year I made 200 bucks on some dude form Massachusetts who gave me 2-1 odds for that Steelers Halloween massacre.

    if you want great ambiance with drinks, chicks and gambling in Montreal, a bar called Champs is the place !!!! place is pcaked for NFL games every single Sunday.

  5. #5

    NFL picks for week 3

    Justa John,

    no disrespect, but an 85% success rate on picks without spreads is not a reference.... and that percentage is based on what, 2 weeks ???

    if you have a 60% rate with spreads over the course of an entire season, now that deserves kudos.

  6. #6
    Retired veteran hobbyist
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    Quote Originally Posted by AngelOfDeath
    Justa John,

    no disrespect, but an 85% success rate on picks without spreads is not a reference.... and that percentage is based on what, 2 weeks ???

    if you have a 60% rate with spreads over the course of an entire season, now that deserves kudos.
    85% on picks without spreads over the past 12 years; 65% on picks with the spread, which is what i bet on to make my money. Parlays are tough to pick, but when they pay out, what a payout!!

  7. #7
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    JaJ's parlay of the week

    Here are my picks for a 4-game parlay with the point spread. Odds were taken from Pro-Line on Wednesday:

    Philly at -7.5
    NY Jets at -2.5
    New England at +3.5
    KC at +2.5

    On Pro-Line, this point spread pays 10X your wager.

  8. #8

    Lightbulb Straight up gambling on NFL? Heres a proposition for you guys.

    I wish I knew a bookie who took straight up bets. In most cases the bookies screw you for anywhere from half a point to a full point over the Vegas odds just to take your bet. Much easier to pick straight up winners and losers than with a spread.

    That being said maybe we could keep all our picks from this week forward in one "NFL thread." For those who care to participate maybe we could have a prize for first place at the end of the regular season. How about one hour with a mid price range SP(180CAD) of your choice paid for by those who choose to participate.

    How about if we all agree to pick 4 games a week like JaJ's "parlay", no spread involved, just straight up winners and losers. At the end of the season whoever has the most wins gets the prize. Your picks must remain posted in the thread with no edits allowed, any edit will disqualify you.

    My picks this week. Dallas, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Indy

  9. #9

    Almost forgot...

    We need a deadline for picks to be in by. How about Saturday by 11pm, that way you've had time to watch all the ESPN NFL "forecast" shows. Any other ideas? We need confirmation by tomorrow night of all who wish to participate so we can post the list.

  10. #10
    [QUOTE=HonestAbe]I wish I knew a bookie who took straight up bets. In most cases the bookies screw you for anywhere from half a point to a full point over the Vegas odds just to take your bet. Much easier to pick straight up winners and losers than with a spread.

    Abe, the site I use takes bets with spreads and straight up for both the NFL and college football.... you can even mix in overs and unders. www.sportsinteraction.com

  11. #11

    NFL Picks Week 3

    Angel,

    Glad you made some $$$ off that guy from my home state. Most Boston sports fans bet with their heart rather than their head. That's why I made some $$ when the Pats crushed the Steelers in the playoffs. Cowher's record is only fair at best in the playoffs and not good at all against the Pats in the Playoffs.

    I've been to Champs before but will be leaving early on the Sunday the 16th but maybe I'll head there to catch some college games or the baseball playoffs (which at this point I don't think will include the Red Sox).

  12. #12

    Parlay for week 3

    4 games with the spread:

    Saints (+3,5)
    Chiefs (+2,5)
    Jags (+2,5)
    Bills (-2,5)

  13. #13

    Unhappy Well alright then.

    Due to apparent lack of interest I guess we won't be having any wagers amongst ourselves. How about for fun then? Same rules and any others anyone can think of which may apply. Enjoy the National pastime tomorrow!

  14. #14
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    Dolphins over Panthers

    I predict the Dolphins will upset the Carolina Panthers (who beat the Pats last week).

    It will be a close game, perhaps the Dolphins winning by just a field goal.


    Ok, ok, sorry to be a smart-ass but I just can't help myself after suffering through last season's 4-12 record.

    I think at the moment I am still in a state of shock that Miami is 2-1.

  15. #15

    Smile 3 out of 4's not bad

    Quote Originally Posted by HonestAbe
    My picks this week. Dallas, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Indy
    Those incredible Pats! They are amazing how they pull out games in the final minute. I would venture to say that next to Tom Brady the most important player to ever put on a Pats uniform is Adam Vinatieri. Not the greatest accuracy of all time, not the strongest leg of all time, but definitely the greatest clutch kicker of all time. If there ever was a guy that a team couldn't afford to lose it would be him for the Pat's. Without him its arguable as to whether or not the Pat's would still be winless in the big game. Of course the same could be said for Brady.

    When I saw Pittsburgh tie it, I looked at the clock and said, "Yeah great, just enough time for Brady to get a couple first downs and Vinatieri to kick the game winner." Pittsburgh did a lot better than in the AFC championship game last year but in the end Cowhers' boys ended up as they always do in big games against great teams, on the short end of the stick. Perhaps its time for Cowher to move on to the front office and give someone else a try. How many times will Steeler fans have to look at that scowl and think "We just got screwed, again"?

    More bad news for the Pats' however as All Pro safety Rodney Harrison and OL Matt Light both go down with leg injuries. Two more starters from last year could be out for a while. Think of the All Pros they have already lost and now add these guys to that list of missing starters from last years Championship team, total starters gone would now total 6! You can't just endlessly replace those caliber of players with some schmo from East Gish University and hope to remain a Super Bowl contender.

    These are the kinds of things that bring down dynasties. The same thing happened with my Cowboys. Michael Irvin goes down with a career ending neck injury at Philly and next thing you know Troy Aikman is getting a concussion every three games. Emmitt couldn't do it all alone and their reign of dominance came to a swift close. If the Pats lose these two guys for any significant amount of time it will kill their secondary in Harrisons case, and result in Brady getting hurried more in the pocket and hit/sacked more than he is used too which will make him rush to get rid of the ball. Rushing to get rid of the ball will often lead to more INT's. Of course a wounded animal is ferocious and no one should take them lightly because of it. I thought Pittsburgh had a chance being at home and the Pats showing signs of weakness on D but give Belichic credit, he found a way to win with his two MVP's.

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