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Thread: Our National Pastime: 2015 Baseball Thread

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    Our National Pastime: 2015 Baseball Thread

    As we enter another year, I thought I'd kick things off with Ben Lindbergh's analysis of our teams. Note that while the stats project the Yankees to win one more game than the Jays, he thinks the Jays will beat their projection and finish second, while the Yankees will miss theirs and finish last.

    His piece is very long and detailed, so I'll just post the Projected Records and Summaries. The complete article is here: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/m...-rays-yankees/

    Red Sox - Projected Record and Over/Under: 87-75 — OVER. Asked to project the team’s win total on the Red Sox preview episode of Effectively Wild, Providence Journal beat writer Tim Britton said, “There’s what I think this team as currently constituted would do, and there’s what I think this team, if they show a small weakness and try to fix it at the deadline, would do.” That’s a potentially important distinction. To the extent that a buyer’s market can exist in an era when anyone can win, this summer figures to be a favorable time to shop for top-of-the-rotation starters, several of whom will hit free agency at the end of the year.

    Even if the Sox can’t sublet a starter, though, their staff won’t be as big a vulnerability as it seems on the surface. Run prevention isn’t all about pitching: The Sox project to have the AL’s second-best defense, by both DRS and UZR,2 and slick fielders — like Dustin Pedroia, whose glove makes him one of the game’s best second basemen even when hand problems sap his power at the plate — make contact-prone pitchers look good. And that’s without accounting for the full impact of Christian Vazquez, whose defensive DNA appears to be Molina-esque. Vazquez projects to save 28 runs thanks to pitch framing over a full season, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Called Strikes Above Average, which puts him one run off the pace for the major league lead. He’s also superb at controlling the running game: In 55 big league games last year, he led all catchers in another BP defensive stat, Basestealing Attempts Above Average. After accounting for pitchers, baserunners, and game states, Vazquez reduced base stealing attempts by 9.2 percent.

    In a division full of flawed teams, the Red Sox’s unmatched offense, solid defense, and deep pockets make them the favorite.

    Blue Jays - Projected Record and Over/Under: 81-81 — OVER. If you thought Boston’s pitching was shaky, avert your eyes from Toronto’s relief corps. The rotation has promise, though, even without Stroman. As others have observed, Drew Hutchison’s slider seemed to take on new life late last season, which coincided with a dramatic rise in strikeout rate. Maybe he’ll sustain some of that bump. Dickey and Buehrle have historically been locks to eat innings. Rookie Daniel Norris has come a long way in a short while, and could take time to adjust, but he’s more than the classic quirky lefty: He throws 96, and he’s missed bats at every level. And if Sanchez fails as a starter, he’ll become an instant solution to the bullpen problem. The Jays can’t quite rival Boston’s best-in-show offense, but their bats and gloves are good enough to keep them close.

    Yankees - Projected Record and Over/Under: 82-80 — UNDER. If the Yankees had players of the same skill but no-higher-than-normal injury risk, they’d deserve a higher spot. A rotation of Tanaka, Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Eovaldi, rounded out by a combination of Capuano and Nova, could be the best in the division. But the odds of that group staying intact for any significant stretch are infinitesimal. Consider this: The Yankees have nine hitters projected to miss 25 games or more. By comparison, the Braves — a much younger team with only one regular age 31 or older — have none.

    We can’t count on the new, fiscally conservative Yankees to pick up players at midseason, either. So we’re left with what we see: a team that would be better if we could roll back its collective odometer to a point several years in the past.
    The mounties always get their man.

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    The AL Central preview was written by Montrealer Jonah Keri -

    Here's how Jonah sees the Tigers - Projected Record and Over/Under: 84-78 — OVER. For the first time in several years, Detroit no longer has one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Again, losing Scherzer does free up lots of money, but the Tigers’ ace is gone, and he hasn’t been replaced. David Price assumes the mantle of staff leader, while Verlander looks like a mid-rotation starter whose best days are behind him. And you can root for Anibal Sanchez to return to full health, Alfredo Simon to replicate his big 2014 first half despite turning into a pumpkin in the second half, and 26-year-old Shane Greene to fulfill his sleeper potential — but you can’t count on any of that happening.

    Even with those question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen, the Tigers should have enough to at least contend for a fifth straight division title. But the aging stars are a year older, and the competition’s all but caught up. After averaging more than 91 wins during the past four seasons, Detroit is no longer a sure thing to claim the Central crown.

    The entire piece is here: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/2...-royals-twins/
    The mounties always get their man.

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    Just moved on ESPN, Yankees have asked release waivers on Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira following their difficult springs.
    The mounties always get their man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rumpleforeskiin View Post
    As we enter another year, I thought I'd kick things off with Ben Lindbergh's analysis of our teams. Note that while the stats project the Yankees to win one more game than the Jays, he thinks the Jays will beat their projection and finish second, while the Yankees will miss theirs and finish last.

    His piece is very long and detailed, so I'll just post the Projected Records and Summaries. The complete article is here: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/m...-rays-yankees/

    Red Sox - Projected Record and Over/Under: 87-75 — OVER. Asked to project the team’s win total on the Red Sox preview episode of Effectively Wild, Providence Journal beat writer Tim Britton said, “There’s what I think this team as currently constituted would do, and there’s what I think this team, if they show a small weakness and try to fix it at the deadline, would do.” That’s a potentially important distinction. To the extent that a buyer’s market can exist in an era when anyone can win, this summer figures to be a favorable time to shop for top-of-the-rotation starters, several of whom will hit free agency at the end of the year.

    Even if the Sox can’t sublet a starter, though, their staff won’t be as big a vulnerability as it seems on the surface. Run prevention isn’t all about pitching: The Sox project to have the AL’s second-best defense, by both DRS and UZR,2 and slick fielders — like Dustin Pedroia, whose glove makes him one of the game’s best second basemen even when hand problems sap his power at the plate — make contact-prone pitchers look good. And that’s without accounting for the full impact of Christian Vazquez, whose defensive DNA appears to be Molina-esque. Vazquez projects to save 28 runs thanks to pitch framing over a full season, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Called Strikes Above Average, which puts him one run off the pace for the major league lead. He’s also superb at controlling the running game: In 55 big league games last year, he led all catchers in another BP defensive stat, Basestealing Attempts Above Average. After accounting for pitchers, baserunners, and game states, Vazquez reduced base stealing attempts by 9.2 percent.

    In a division full of flawed teams, the Red Sox’s unmatched offense, solid defense, and deep pockets make them the favorite.
    Oh boy!!! Lindbergh is working frantically to rework his projections for the Red Sox after this shattering news that just hit the wire.

    Christian Vazquez, who was to have begun the season as the team's No. 1 catcher, will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Thursday.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12...y-john-surgery

    Buchholz will be next(IMHO).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joe.t View Post
    Christian Vazquez, who was to have begun the season as the team's No. 1 catcher, will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Thursday.
    The loss of Vazquez is probably going to cost the Sox between 1-2 games in the standings. That could be offset to some degree if Swihart is ready by mid-season. While he was projected to save the Sox 28 runs defensively, he was also likely to cost them 10 or so with his bat. 10-12 runs saved is the equivalent of one game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Joe.t View Post
    Buchholz will be next(IMHO).
    In your hilarious opinion? Your bookie just adores your opinions, Joe.

    Quote Originally Posted by lgna69xxx View Post
    Oops! There goes those 28 runs and if anyone needs to be saved from runs it is that pitching staff!
    Again more like 15-20 runs when his bat is taken into account.
    The mounties always get their man.

  6. #6
    Oops! There goes those 28 runs and if anyone needs to be saved from runs it is that pitching staff!

    Next we will hear about how Swihart will be the second coming of Carlton Fisk before he plays one game in the majors
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe.t View Post
    Oh boy!!! Lindbergh is working frantically to rework his projections for the Red Sox after this shattering news that just hit the wire.

    Christian Vazquez, who was to have begun the season as the team's No. 1 catcher, will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Thursday.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12...y-john-surgery

    Buchholz will be next(IMHO).

  7. #7
    Noooooooo! He will do more damage to his own team just being in the lineup. If he goes down they might actually have a better option than Super Clay!
    Quote Originally Posted by Joe.t View Post

    Buchholz will be next(IMHO).

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    Quote Originally Posted by lgna69xxx View Post
    Oops! There goes those 28 runs and if anyone needs to be saved from runs it is that pitching staff!

    Next we will hear about how Swihart will be the second coming of Carlton Fisk before he plays one game in the majors
    The same way we've been hearing how Repshyders the second coming of Robbie Cano before he plays one game in the majors?
    Jules Winnfield (Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction) English, motherfu*ker, do you speak it?

    Typical Yankee fan in the Merb Sports Section!! Bwwaahh.

  9. #9
    Refs is gonna be a hitter but he needs to play defense also because Arod has the DH spot won. Refs will start in Scranton anyways. He does look like a good prospect tho and he will be a fan favorite if he makes it as a full time big leaguer one day. I have a feeling he will take over for Drew if Drew is not hitting at least .260 by mid may. Not a drew fan here so hoping he stinks up the yard and Refs get's his shot, or Pirela if healthy soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rumpleforeskiin View Post
    The loss of Vazquez is probably going to cost the Sox between 1-2 games in the standings.
    So the Red Sox will win 75 games instead of 77 games in 2015?
    So when will Hillary go to Prison?

    Only the Democrats would have a potential CONVICT as their Top Presidential Candidate. Simply Pathetic

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Special K View Post
    The same way we've been hearing how Repshyders the second coming of Robbie Cano before he plays one game in the majors?
    "Yankees Acquire Gregorio Petit
    By Steve Adams [April 1, 2015 at 7:34pm CDT]
    The Astros announced that they’ve traded infielder Gregorio Petit to the Yankees in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations."

    Petit is a 30 year old journeyman who has 100 MLB at bats since 2009, who the Yankees decided to acquire rather than promote Refsnyder, who made an astonishing 6 errors in spring training. A late inning replacement in the spring, Refsnyder has shown that he is capable of hitting minor league pitching. While he has no power, he can hit for average. He projects long-term as a DH for a second division club. Refsndyer is a converted outfielder; typically when an outfielder is converted to middle infield, it is because he can't hit enough to play the outfield.
    The mounties always get their man.

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    Ouch. Idiots should have done the TJ last July
    Pedro Martinez: Tentative Masahiro Tanaka will get hurt this year

    Andrew Marchand, ESPNNewYork.com

    Pedro Martinez is going into the Hall of Fame this summer, in part, because he always seemed to be a step ahead, seeing the game at a higher level.

    Pedro Martinez said Masahiro Tanaka is not throwing with conviction and has been hanging way too many breaking balls.AP Photo/Kathy Willens
    So when he says that Masahiro Tanaka doesn't look right, it might be worth listening. After missing 10 weeks last season with a torn ligament in his elbow, Tanaka is trying to return to ace form. Martinez says he won't make it.

    “I don’t see him healthy all year,” Martinez told Adam Schein on Sirius/XM's Mad Dog Radio. “And I don’t see him healthy right now. I’ll be brave enough to say he’s not completely healthy right now.”

    Martinez says Tanaka -- 1-2 with a 3.07 ERA, 13 strikeouts, one walk and a .228 batting average against in 14 2/3 spring innings -- looks tentative.

    “Tanaka is not healthy right now because I believe Tanaka is hesitant to let it go,” said Martinez, an analyst for TBS and MLB Network. “Tanaka is hanging all those breaking balls that he is throwing.

    “The only pitch he is committing to is the split finger and his problems are actually in a place where you don’t need to put any more stress, which is the elbow. And he’s hesitant. He’s hesitating to throw his fastball and he’s hanging every breaking ball he’s throwing out there. Plus his velocity is not there yet.”

    Tanaka, who is scheduled to start on Opening Day against the Blue Jays Monday, may only escape this year healthy by a “magic trick,” Martinez said.

    Martinez, on a positive note, added that Michael Pineda has the "tools" to be a No. 1. But you don't have to be a Hall of Famer to know know that.
    The mounties always get their man.

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    I was thinking the same thing Pedro mentionned the other day when i saw Tanaka pitching. He looked a bit different than last season, but i wasn't sure if it was my eyes that were playing tricks on me. I looked at his numbers & even though the strikeout ratio is impressive, the ERA was troubling considering that many of the hitters he's faced were AA & AAA players who had never faced him before.

    I guess we'll see how he makes out against major league hitters during the first couple of months of the season. But with the type of injury he'll be trying to pitch through, the prognosis for a successful & healthy season is at best 50/50.

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    The over/under on starts by Tanaka in 2015 is 20.5. I'm going with the under.
    The mounties always get their man.

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    NESN is predicting that Alex Rodrigues will win AL comeback of the year.

    http://nesn.com/playlist/mlb-cy-youn...ns-for-2015/1/

    Joe.t's predictons for the AL because it is the league that I follow the most.

    CY Young- Felix Hernandes.
    MVP- Jose Bautista.


    AL East - Too tough to call but it definitely will not be the Red Sox for the simple FACTS that the odds of a team going from last to first are slim and none, also all of the experts are picking the Red Sox to win the East, again this almost never happens, the more important factor is that their pitching sucks and will be their downfall, why on god's green earth did they let their best player Lester go is beyond me, they will regret that move big time, they will also regret the signings of Ramirez(injury prone, last time that he had 500 AB was 5 years ago) and Spanky(overrated).

    AL Central - Tigers.

    AL West- Angels.

    Bonus prediction- Nathan Eovaldi(Yankees number 4) wins more games than the corpse of Clay Buchholz(Boston's number 2).

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