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Thread: HIV in Quebec - Simple Calculations

  1. #1

    HIV in Quebec - Simple Calculations

    Hi,

    According to Farha Foundation.. 20,000 people in Quebec are HIV+
    http://www.farha.qc.ca/learn.php?lang=en

    approximately, 1/4 of newly infected are females,, meaning up to 5,000 women are infected in Quebec...

    since 33% are already diagnosed with AIDS .. this leaves up to maximum of 3,500 HIV+ women that did not develop AIDS yet, of which probably 27% do not even know they are infected... and they may look and feel perfectly healthy ..


    Bottom line is: Doing simple calculations on available statistics.. Up to 3,500 women are HIV+ in Quebec and yet did not develop AIDS .... 1,000 of them are not aware of their status...

    Important Question: How many of them are in the 'Business' ??

  2. #2
    I am me, too!
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    Anybody noticed all the statistics that site relates to are at the "conditional" tense (au conditionel)? Nothing there is based on any facts. I hate these pseudo-scientific sites who spew-out garbage that came from nobody know where, call them "the facts", when it's absolutly not true and make alarmist statements about the "hard reality" that's in fact a total fiction they coined.

  3. #3
    If you want accurate information for STIs in Quebec check this (I only found the information in French):

    http://publications.msss.gouv.qc.ca/.../08-329-02.pdf

    The HIV stats are on page 40

    HIV is a MADO (Maladie à Déclaration Obligatoire - Obligatory declaration of the Infection) which means that the the doctors have to declare all their patients who are HIV positive. This also means that the numbers (percentages) we find in government documents regarding MADOs are accurate with the cases that were diagnosed. Of course there are still people who have HIV (or other infections) and who are unaware of it.

    If you are scared of contracting from or transmitting to a person an STI, whether she be a sex worker or not, WEAR A CONDOM!
    Last edited by Miss Maria; 10-24-2009 at 07:21 PM.
    Smile and the world will smile with you

  4. #4
    It is not about me being scared,, it is about understanding how this whole things relates ...

    That was well detailed, thanks for sharing ...

    It seems the Farha stats are flavoured with some 10% exaggeration .. but at least the order of magnitude is valid ...

  5. #5
    Yes I understand what you mean but the thing is that anyone can get HIV if they have unprotected sex.
    Smile and the world will smile with you

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kija25 View Post
    Hi,

    According to Farha Foundation.. 20,000 people in Quebec are HIV+
    http://www.farha.qc.ca/learn.php?lang=en

    approximately, 1/4 of newly infected are females,, meaning up to 5,000 women are infected in Quebec...

    since 33% are already diagnosed with AIDS .. this leaves up to maximum of 3,500 HIV+ women that did not develop AIDS yet, of which probably 27% do not even know they are infected... and they may look and feel perfectly healthy ..


    Bottom line is: Doing simple calculations on available statistics.. Up to 3,500 women are HIV+ in Quebec and yet did not develop AIDS .... 1,000 of them are not aware of their status...

    Important Question: How many of them are in the 'Business' ??
    Small problem with your calculations:

    if there are 20,000 cases in total then 1 in 4 of NEWLY INFECTED would be much less than 5,000. It does not say that there are 20,000 new cases!

    Ronnie,
    Naughtylady
    They will forget what you said,
    they will forget what you did,
    but they will never forget the way you made them feel.

  7. #7
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    He's not totally incorrect... if there are 20k infected people at any given time, and a quarter of newly infected persons are women, then eventually the AIDS population male/female ratio will settle to a quarter if trends don't change. If there is low variance in this ratio, then you can probably infer the 5000. As for the quality of the data in the first place...


    Quote Originally Posted by naughtylady View Post
    Small problem with your calculations:

    if there are 20,000 cases in total then 1 in 4 of NEWLY INFECTED would be much less than 5,000. It does not say that there are 20,000 new cases!

    Ronnie,
    Naughtylady

  8. #8
    But re all the above, no matter how many infected people there are in the world, in Montreal or in the SP business, the bottom line is that if you have protected sex, you will not contract HIV...period.

    You will not get HIV from getting a . (You might get something else, but not HIV). You will not get HIV from sex using a latex condom. Period. There are countless relationships in which one partner is HIV-positive for years and the other partner never contracts it because they have protected sex.

    Even if you are unlucky enough to be having sex with an HIV-positive SP and the condom breaks, the odds are almost nil that you will get infected. The estimated odds of transmission of HIV from an HIV-poz female to a male during a single act of heterosexual intercourse WITHOUT A CONDOM are 3 in 10,000. That is a real stat from the CDC in the U.S. And read that again to be clear: If you are barebacking with an HIV-positive woman (recommended? of course not) your odds of being infected are 3 in 10,000.

    Yes, AIDS is real, and yes, it is passed along through sex. But will you be infected with HIV from having protected sex with escorts? Absolutely not. And there are no verified cases of transmission through receiving oral sex.

    (source...I have worked as an HIV educator. I would not just make stuff up and post it)
    Last edited by bumfie; 03-01-2010 at 02:00 PM.

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