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Thread: Yankees vs. Red Sox: The No-Nonsense Analysis

  1. #1
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    Yankees vs. Red Sox: The No-Nonsense Analysis

    This thread is for the no spin, no-nonsense, no bullshit analysis of the upcoming Yankees-Red Sox ALCS clash.

    Last year, I correctly predicted that the Yankees would win the series. Although they got a bit lucky at the end with a managerial mistake by Grady Little, the Yankees did have the better team last year and deserved to move on to the World Series.

    This year, I rate the teams dead even, and I believe that luck and possibly home field advantage, which the Yankees have, could be the deciding factors in what should be a long, tight series.

    STARTING PITCHING:

    The Red Sox, IF Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez are fully healthy, have an advantage in starting pitching. Question is, are they fully healthy? In the case of Schilling, I am not buying any pronouncement made by the Red Sox organization regarding Schilling being 100%. The Red Sox organization is notorious for lying about the health of its players, going back to the Butch Hobson fiasco, and there is no reason to believe they would be telling the truth now. Look for the Yankees to work high pitch counts against both Schilling and Pedro which is generally how the Yankees counteract teams with good starting pitching. The damage is done against the bullpens explaining why the Yankees had a major league leading 62 come from behind wins.

    The Yankees starting pitching is highly unpredictable, although Mike Mussina and Joe Lieber have pitched well of late and Kevin Brown pitched very well in game 3 against the Twins. However, the Twins' lineup isn't all that scary and certainly is not as good as the Red Sox, which have far more long ball threats. The key for the Yankees pitchers will be to avoid getting lit up early and keeping the Yankees within striking distance when the Red Sox bullpen is reached.

    BULLPEN:

    Even. The Yankees bullpen has merely been good, and while I would have thought at the beginning of the year this would be a Yankees advantage, it is either a draw or a slight advantage at best. The Yankees have no reliable lefthanded pitcher in the bullpen, which is a major problem (Heredia and Nitkowski have both been awful). However, Tanyon Sturtze, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera give them 3 good right handed relievers. Rivera had some control problems late in the season, but looked very sharp in closing out the Twins tonight. He is certainly better than his counterpart Keith Foulke and can go 2 innings when needed to save games.

    The Red Sox lost Scott Williamson for the season which was a major blow. He may have the best arm in their pen. Other than Foulke, there are no other guys capable of closing. Curt Leskanic has a good arm but has been hit hard by the Yankees in the past. On the other hand, the Red Sox at least have a lefty whom they can go to, a luxury the Yankees don't have right now.

    DEFENSE:

    Edge to Yankees, in particular on the infield.

    LINEUP:

    Edge to the Yankees. The Yankees have more power through the lineup, and slightly more speed. These are probably the two best lineups in the American league, and along with St. Louis sport the only championship calibre lineups in the playoffs this year.

    MANAGING:

    Edge to the Yankees. Joe Torre is a savvy manager who never makes the blunder moves. Terry Francona lacks the big game experience and is being thrown into a serious fire here. However this series likely will not be decided by the managers as it was last year.

    PREDICTION: RED SOX IN 7 (IF SCHILLING HEALTHY); YANKEES IN 7 (IF SCHILLING IS OFF)

  2. #2
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    I gotta be the first...

    YANKEES SUCK!!!

    Yup, I'm that guy.
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  3. #3
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    Originally posted by Bud Fox
    Imo, Pedro isn't his old self anymore and Matsui doesn't get the recognition he deserves from the media. Joe Torre is probably the only person that recognizes Matsui's accomplishment and plays him at cleanup spot.
    Bud Fox,

    You are right on both counts.

    Pedro is not the pitcher he was a few years ago and has been whacked around by the Yankees recently. He is a pitcher who tires and loses his effectiveness rapidly if he gets a high pitch count, as Red Sox fans saw in horror last year when Grady Little left him in too long. IMHO Pedro is and has been in poor shape the last 2 years. If you look at him he looks like he is getting rather doughy around the middle. As someone who also experienced this phenomenon when I reached my mid 30s, all I can say is Pedro needs to have a better offseason conditioning program or his decline will continue rapidly. I think he needs to work out with Barry Bonds and ask Bonds if he can borrow his Chef.

    Regarding Matsui, I have stated previously he is the most underrated player in the major leagues. The guy rarely gives away at bats (never in clutch situations) and is the most fundamentally sound player the Yankees have had since Don Mattingly.
    Last edited by EagerBeaver; 10-10-2004 at 10:12 AM.

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    RegnaD,

    Make sure you leave that post up so that we can analyze it once the series is over.

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    Regna D,

    You keep citing these stats on Jeter's allegedly poor defensive plays but he played great defense this year and consistently made plays that helped the Yankees win. I conclude that you do not watch too many Yankees games and are reading drivel or bullshit being spouted in one of your local newspapers. And how many players would have gone into the stands and made the play on that foul pop against the Red Sox?

    You say the Yankees "added" Sierra this year. Sierra was on the Yankees last year.

    I generally don't believe that the differences in the starting pitching are dramatic as you make them out to be and in a short series it will be whomever gets hot and rises to the occasion.

    Your post above conveniently ignores the fact that the Yankees defense is vastly superior at the corners with A-Rod and Olerud both playing gold glove defense. You also conveniently ignore the fact that the Red Sox mysteriously played .500 ball for a large part of the first half of this season despite having such a tremendous team.

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    The Curse of the Bambino

    The Yankees have something more important on their side: the infamous "Curse of the Bambino".

    Will the Red Sox be able to finally beat the curse? My money says no.

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    I do not agree with these anti-Jeter posts. It's true that Jeter is not a classic shortstop in terms of his style of defense, and his range isn't the best. However his arm is tremendous and he is great going back on pop flies. In fact A-Rod has had to work with Jeter because A-Rod's one weakness defensively is shagging pop ups.

    Jeter is the best baserunner (not base stealer), bar none, in the majors. He has potential to be a much greater power hitter but has sacrificed this because the Yankees need him to get on base. Witness his homerun into the black seats in game 2. Reggie is the only other Yankee who has ever reached those seats postseason.

    Jeter will awlays be a lightning rod for criticism because he is good looking, the media likes him and he has had the fortune to play on some great teams. However he has also helped make those teams great. He was MVP of the 2000 World Series against the Mets in which the Yankees were under HUGE pressure to win. I read a scouting report on Jeter which says that the team's focus and professionalism is directly traceable to Jeter.

    There may be better shortstops but there are very few guys who are pure winners and I want winners on my team. You guys can have Nomar, I'll take Jeter.
    Last edited by EagerBeaver; 10-10-2004 at 08:01 PM.

  8. #8
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    Re: Yankees vs. Red Sox: The No-Nonsense Analysis

    [QUOTE]Originally posted by EagerBeaver
    [B]This thread is for the no spin, no-nonsense, no bullshit analysis of the upcoming Yankees-Red Sox ALCS clash.


    BULLPEN:

    Even. The Yankees bullpen has merely been good, and while I would have thought at the beginning of the year this would be a Yankees advantage, it is either a draw or a slight advantage at best. The Yankees have no reliable lefthanded pitcher in the bullpen, which is a major problem (Heredia and Nitkowski have both been awful). However, Tanyon Sturtze, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera give them 3 good right handed relievers. Rivera had some control problems late in the season, but looked very sharp in closing out the Twins tonight. He is certainly better than his counterpart Keith Foulke and can go 2 innings when needed to save games.


    EB

    I heard this Story Tonight on my Local News:
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200....ap/index.html

    "Two electrocuted at home of Yankees' Rivera

    PANAMA CITY, Panama (AP) -- Two relatives of New York Yankees pitcher Mariano Rivera were electrocuted while cleaning the pool at the Major League Baseball All-Star's home in Panama, a cousin said Sunday

    Victor Dario Avila, a cousin of Rivera's wife, Clara; and Avila's 14-year-old son were killed Saturday in Puerto Caimito, 70 kilometers (40 miles) east of Panama City.

    The teenager, also named Victor Dario Avila, appeared to have touched an electric wire while cleaning the pool, and his father died trying to save him, Rivera's cousin, Irma Rivera, told The Associated Press.

    "Everyone is sad," she said. "Victor was a good man."

    Avila was a fishermen who also cleaned and maintained Rivera's home.

    Rivera was playing with the Yankees in Minneapolis in the American League playoffs against Minnesota Twins at the time of the accident. Family members said his wife was on her way to Panama."


    The news said the Yankees were not sure if Rivera would be available.

    I like the Sox to Beat the Yankees !
    Thanks !

  9. #9
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    This is a very sad and unfortunate incident. The Yankees are going to need Mariano this series. We'll have to see what happens!

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    Mariano Will Be Back For Game 1

    I just read that Mariano Rivera has told the Yankees he will be available for game 1 tomorrow night.

    Mariano was told of the deaths of his relatives shortly after he closed out the Twins in game 4, and immediately flew to Panama to be with his loved ones.

    From what I read in today's New York Post, a 14 year old boy who is a cousin of Rivera's wife was cleaning Mariano's pool in bare feet on a wet deck when he somehow came in to contact with an electrified fence. His father, who was apparently the wife's cousin and Mariano's de facto butler/handyman, saw his son getting electrocuted, tried to free him from the fence and he got zapped as well. Both of them died. It is not clear why Mariano had installed an electrified fence near a swimming pool, or whether it was unintentionally electrified because it came into contact with a live wire.

    Having myself witnessed the electrocution of a co-worker many years ago when I was in college, I can tell you all that it is a horrible thing to watch, and I am sure even more horrible to experience. Be very careful with live wires and especially be careful if you are working with ANYTHING that can potentially be in contact with a live wire.

  11. #11
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    Who's going to be the first to be callous enough to swing this thread back to the playoffs?

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    Medic 565,

    I will. Just read in today's paper that Aaron Boone is predicting Yankees in 7. The Boston management team, unlike past years when they made inflammatory and bizarre statements, are saying that the teams are "evenly matched" which is a statement that I agree with. I think this series will go 7. If the Red Sox win in 5, I will pay for Regna D to have 1 hour with a Satin Dreamz girl of his choice. But the Red Sox must win in 5.

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    a) Aaron Boone. The reason the Yankees needed to go to a game 7 last year was because of Boone's ineptitude in the field and at the plate.

    b) To paraphrase Christopher Walken in the movie Catch Me If You Can; "They can't keep their eyes off the pinstripes".
    "better to be shot out of a cannon than squeezed out of a tube"

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    All of you guys are assuming that Schilling is 100% as we are being told by the Red Sox organization. Schilling is a bulldog and if healthy, he is a lock for 7 plus innings and 3 earned runs or less. But he may not be healthy. And what you guys have to realize is that in the major leagues if you are just a little off with your mechanics due to injury you get whacked. Against a team like the Yankees with the lineup they have, you can get whacked big time.

    I agree with Bud Fox that Pedro's 2 starts will be a big key for the Red Sox. He has been hammered at times by the Yankees and as I recall last start gave up a tremendous homer to Jeter. I think he is only good for 6 innings at most against a team that will drive up his pitch count, so endurance will be a factor as well. Schilling's pitch count will also be driven up and we will see how his ankle holds up.

    It is not clear what the Red Sox will get out of Lowe and Wakefield. Both have been awful for long stretches this season. Wakefield does have a good track record against the Yankees notwithstanding giving up the Boone home run.

    On the flip side, the Yankees could be holding a wild card if El Duque can pitch game 4. Unfortunately Vazquez has inexplicably disappeared in the second half, and the prospect of having him pitch against the Red Sox when he gave up a club record 33 homeruns is not a savory one. If I were Torre I would pitch Mussina, Lieber, Brown, and El Duque in that order if El Duque can go. If ED cannot go, I would strongly consider starting Tanyon Sturtze in game 4 who has pitched very well against the Red Sox.
    Last edited by EagerBeaver; 10-11-2004 at 03:51 PM.

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    Is it too late to trade for Randy Johnson?

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