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Sex Work population study now on PLOS ONE

pop2021

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Sep 29, 2021
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This is an update to My unfortunate involvement in Sex Worker Research. The paper is now up on PLOS ONE https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0277550
The paper was completely re-written. If you want a quick summary of what the paper is about jump to the Discussion section. That summarizes the results.

At least one member here thinks that the estimate of 2% of the Canadian female 20-49 yo population is too low. They may be right. However, over time the 2% is going to grow.

One thing that is quite clear is that the number of human trafficking cases related to sex work are a tiny fraction of the estimated number of people advertising.

Follow up research is in progress: Twitter: https://twitter.com/SexWorkPopCA, website: https://populationproject.ca/

Press release:

The Silent Majority Press Release.png
 
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pop2021

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I think it is always interesting to read and to contemplate research, but I do wonder if you fully comprehend how much different the “Merb scene” is than the majority of what you studied?
I had a great deal of difficulty keeping the length of the paper down to less than 8000 words so I had to leave out many points that I think should be made. One of these is sex work represents a wide variety of people. All ages, shapes, income levels are represented in one way or another from what I have seen. There are a sizable number of guys offering services to women - do we ever hear about this in the press let alone research in Canada?

The general theme of the paper I think holds true: things are not as they seem. This is a much more pervasive sub culture - including both clients and SPs - than anyone wants to admit. Anyone thinking they are alone just hasn't been around long enough.

I've been involved in one way or another with the review sites since 2005 mainly I've used some of the others. I'm well aware and its abundantly clear there are distinct sub-communities. The S3 and S4 Appendices associated with the paper discusses this in more depth.

The more recent ads I've been looking at the median and mean days online are much closer (i.e. the distribution isn't so dominated by very short term advertisers) and I'm seeing that people are likely advertising for 7 months on average. One reason for this change from 2014-2016 may be COVID discouraged many of the opportunistic advertisers. However, I think the platform also makes a difference. Its a huge pain in the ass to advertise on LL for example. It took me two days to get set up. On the review sites the focus is more on developing long term online connections with people I would think. Each platform is going to attract different people. However, it appears that everybody - at least back 5 years ago - eventually wound up advertising on the classified sites at some point or other. It might not have been that consistent but it did happen.

I'm also doing a follow up looking at the a recent sample of the workers who include web addresses in their contact information. I'd say most of the advertisers, when they have their own websites, have been in the business for 3-5 years at least. OF hasn't been in operation long enough but there are people on there apparently from the beginning who also advertised on classified sites (note one option on classifieds after COVID is "Online"). The people using OF tend not to have their own websites. There are people using social media with huge followings. Of the advertisers I sampled many had > 2k followers with a handful having more than 50k followers. However, these long term people may not be the majority.

For the 79 advertisers who represent collectives the range in numbers is 2-82 and in the last month it appears that 13% quit and were replaced. I'm going to try and monitor this over the next 6 months but this is a pretty unequivocal indication that people move around a lot in the business, if not outright retire or take breaks. This pattern isn't surprising, this is one business where the worker has a lot more control than even other gig work situations where usually the workers don't have direct contact with prospective customers before doing business.
 
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R the Man

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Congrats, @pop2021! As an academic myself, I know research is hard, and you‘ve done a tremendous amount of work to get this published in a very credible journal. Very impressive tenacity over such a long period! Here is the abstract or summary for more casual readers.

Abstract​

Background​

Most sex worker population studies measure population at discrete points in time and very few studies have been done in industrialized democracies. The purpose of this study is to consider how time affects the population dynamics of contact sex workers in Canada using publicly available internet advertising data collected over multiple years.

Methods​

3.6 million web pages were collected from advertising sites used by contact sex workers between November, 2014 and December, 2016 inclusive. Contacts were extracted from ads and used to identify advertisers. First names were used to estimate the number of workers represented by an advertiser. Counts of advertisers and names were adjusted for missing data and overcounting. Two approaches for correcting overcounts are compared. Population estimates were generated weekly, monthly and for the two year period. The length of time advertisers were active was also estimated. Estimates are also compared with related research.

Results​

Canadian sex workers typically advertised individually or in small collectives (median name count 1, IQR 1–2, average 1.8, SD 4.4). Advertisers were active for a mean of 73.3 days (SD 151.8, median 14, IQR 1–58). Advertisers were at least 83.5% female. Respectively the scaled weekly, monthly, and biannual estimates for female sex workers represented 0.2%, 0.3% and 2% of the 2016 Canadian female 20–49 population. White advertisers were the most predominant ethnic group (53%).

Conclusions​

Sex work in Canada is a more pervasive phenomenon than indicated by spot estimates and the length of the data collection period is an important variable. Non-random samples used in qualitative research in Canada likely do not reflect the larger sex worker population represented in advertising. The overall brevity of advertising activity suggests that workers typically exercise agency, reflecting the findings of other Canadian research.
 

R the Man

Variety is the spice...
Feb 6, 2004
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I think your focus on methodology in this paper is important for the field, but I also agree with you that there is a lot of rich info in your database about the demographics of the sex workers themselves. Do you have other papers in the hopper? Also, I wonder if you accounted for the Asian micro scene in Vancouver and other cities? I know that many micros only advertise on WeChat, for example, and that others use multiple sources with different names for the SPs and different telephone numbers. Also, these generally use traveling SPs on short term visas from Korea and China, often on “tours” in both Toronto and Vancouver, for example.
 
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