I say Conservatives will lose +- 40 seats.
NDP will gain +- 15 seats. They could have gained more if they didn't lose seats to...
Bloc: 6 seat gain.
Greens may gain one seat.
Liberals, the balance: +- 15 seat gain.
So in perspective (prediction v. 2011):
CPC ≈ 125 from 166
NDP ≈ 120 from 103
LPC ≈ 50 from 34
Bloc ≈ 10 from 4
Greens ≈ 2 from 1.
(place the missing seat to reach the magical 308 where you wish).
But this prediction is based on a participation rate of 61% (2011). As it stands, there are currently more Canadians that *didn't vote* than Canadians who voted for any single party above. I predict that a significant voter turn-out increase (+5%) would go straight to the NDP bank, for an NDP minority government win. Because, if you listen to the chatter, the NDP is seen as the "option we didn't know we had [to form government]".
Finally, CPC will mostly lose seats to the NDP (watch out, Alberta!).
LPC will gain (back some of its Ontario seats) from the CPC.
Bloc, as suggested above, is gaining all its seats from the NDP.
If the Bloc had died last election, and everything else remaining equal, the NDP would therefore have won the election (still a minority government). As it stands, we're getting a minority CPC government (my overall prediction), but the NDP and LPC will learn a bit about Canadian rage if they don't form a coalition. If they do (they'd have to be idiots not to), it will be an interesting Parliament for the next (fixed elections) four years!
