New Feasibility Study says MLB is Viable in Montreal

[rumpleforeskiin]

The only reason they went down was because of the 1994 lock-out, they got screwed by MLB, poor ownership once Bronfman sold the team, and the poor Canadian $$. Many fans left after the first three reasons i mentionned, and others stayed away and never came back once it was nearly guaranteed they'd relocate. I mean, why support a team that won't be there either next year or the next?

That and more, Doc, but you're pretty much dead on. You do mention the lousy ballpark in your next sentence. But not only was the ballpark lousy, but it's location as well.

You also mention that the Expos were screwed by MLB, but I think that's soft-selling the issue. They really were sabotaged by MLB so that MLB could justify moving the franchise to Washington, which was threatening to take away baseball's anti-trust exemption.

And by the way, the Nationals' attendance has exceeded the MLB average only once, their first year. Expos' attendance was greater than the MLB average 5 of their first 6 years, despite playing in tiny Parc Jarry. Again attendance was higher than the MLB average 5 of the first 7 years in the Big Owe. Attendance remained decent through 1997, despite the inability of the club to retain it's free agents. After 1997, when it became apparent that the team was doomed, attendance plummeted. It's pretty clear that a well run team with a decent ballpark in a good location will thrive in Montreal and I expect that's exactly what today's report will show.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I'm guessing they would have to have a retractable roof if they were to build a new ballpark.

The Minnesota Twins moved to an open air ballpark in 2010 and drew over 3,000,000 for only the second and third time in their history. (The only other time was the year after they won their first WS.) Montreal is balmy compared to Minneapolis.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

This comes to us from Radio-Canada, and says pretty much the same thing as the Chicago Trib:

Appui de taille pour Montréal

Sans même le demander, Projet Baseball Montréal (PBM), le groupe piloté par l'ex-Expo Warren Cromartie, a reçu tout un coup de main, mercredi, de l'influent agent Scott Boras.

Celui-ci a louangé Montréal et fait la promotion de sa candidature dans l'éventualité où les Rays de Tampa Bay demanderaient un transfert.

« Le but au baseball est d'afficher de la constance et de gagner année après année, ce que les Rays de Tampa Bay ont assurément accompli, a dit Boras au cours de sa rencontre annuelle avec les représentants des médias lors des assises d'hiver du baseball.

« À mon avis, pour protéger son produit, le baseball majeur doit se demander pourquoi ça ne fonctionne pas alors qu'elle offre un bon produit (à Tampa Bay). Comme le problème n'est ni la direction de l'équipe, ni ses performances, il faut donc conclure qu'il s'agit d'une dynamique qu'on ne rencontre pas dans les autres marchés. Habituellement, quand vous offrez de bonnes performances et que vous gagnez, les partisans vous récompensent.

« Alors ma suggestion de déménager vers le New Jersey ou Montréal (...) doit être évaluée pour le bien du sport, afin de s'assurer que les marchés qui offrent des performances de haut niveau soient récompensés. Je crois que Montréal serait un environnement exceptionnel pour le baseball. Je me rappelle de 1994, de leurs assistances à cette époque et de la rivalité canadienne: je croyais vraiment que le baseball se trouvait dans un bon marché. Les joueurs aimaient y jouer. C'est une belle ville.

« Dans le New Jersey, ce serait probablement plus difficile en raison des droits de télévision et de la proximité des Yankees et des Mets. »

Malgré des performances plus qu'intéressantes sur le terrain, les Rays ont attiré la plus faible moyenne de spectateurs par match en 2013 à 18 645. L'équipe cherche à quitter le Tropicana Field, un stade couvert, mais il reste encore plusieurs années à son contrat d'occupation.

La Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain (CCMM) doit dévoiler jeudi les résultats d'une étude réalisée par la firme Ernst & Young sur un éventuel retour du baseball majeur à Montréal.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

OK, the study has been released and, as suspected, the findings were favorable. Understand, this study was not performed by a shill organization with a pre-determined outcome, but by one of the world's four biggest accounting firms, Ernst and Young. The project attendance of $2.3 million per year, just slightly below the MLB average and 800,000 more than a very good Tampa Bay team drew last year. Another significant finding is that 81% of the corporate community wants baseball back.

Here's what Warren Cromartie had to say this morning about the findings:

There are two things in baseball that never change: history and numbers. As far as Major League Baseball in Montreal goes, the numbers are in and numbers don’t lie: we are viable!

Today Montreal Baseball Project, in collaboration with the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal, Ernst & Young, and BCF LLP, announced the results of a feasibility study on the viability of Major League Baseball in Montreal that we launched back in March. Although I’ve known all along Montreal is still a baseball city, we felt it was important to put that question to the population and to the business community in order to back up what I already personally believed. I could not be more pleased with the results.

We are closer to our goal now than at any time in the last decade.

According to a Leger Marketing poll conducted as part of the study, the return of Major League Baseball to Montreal would be embraced by both fans and the business community. Nearly 70% of Quebecers are in favour of bringing the game back to Montreal. Among corporations, 81% support the return of Major League Baseball.

How does this kind of support translate into fannies in the seats? Leger Marketing found out that fans would be willing to pay $50 to see a ball game. Leger also forecasts an average attendance of 28,500 per game. Multiplied by 81 games a year, we are looking at a little over 2.3 million in attendance over the course of an entire season. Those are some great numbers in my opinion!

A lot of hard work has gone into bringing us this far but our work is not done. We’ve arrived at a very important stage in the journey to bring Major League Baseball back to Montreal. My next task is to find a champion.

A champion, or champions, is what it’s going to take to make this work. To put this in baseball terms, here’s how I see it:

I’d liken what we have done to mounting a late-inning comeback. We’ve scraped, battled, and chipped away at adversity. Montreal Baseball Project, the Board of Trade, the Montreal business community, and, of course, Montreal baseball fans, who’ve shown their support and passion right from the beginning, have loaded the bases.

So now, we are looking for a champion to emerge from the dugout. We need a power hitter to step up to the plate and bring everybody home. A big player who has the assets, the passion, and the integrity to make history. A champion who has the same dream I have. The same dream that millions of Montreal baseball fans have never given up on: the dream to bring Major League Baseball back to Montreal. And to bring the Montreal Expos back to life.

Somebody’s going to hit the home run that will be remembered forever. If you want to play the role of the champion in this story, I’m waiting for your call.

My ringtone is set to “Val-de-ri, val-de-ra.”

You can read the entire study here. http://montrealbaseballproject.com....tent/repos/Top/2012 website/Blog/Study_EN.pdf It's 60 pages long. I'll report back after I've had a chance to read it in its entirety.

Make no mistake about it. MLB will take the finding in this study very seriously.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Translation: The dream of seeing the Expos in Montreal is now worked out, or at least estimated. To be viable, the project should, however, be funded by the Government to the tune of $ 335 million.

Absolutely, which I'd have totally opposed prior to reading the report, which I assume you've done, eh?

In stadium QST on ticket sales, concessions and merchandise to game attendees as well as broadcasting, advertising and sponsorship contracts would bring in $18 M per year.

Tax on revenues generated by employees and tourism during operation would net another $28 M annually.

Income tax on Montreal teams players would bring in another $10 M annually.

The $335 million dollars would be recaptured in 8 years. The cumulative revenues in the 20 years after repayment would be $1.188 BILLION.

The $335 invested by Montreal/Quebec would result in a massive windfall. This is, of course, just the revenues reaped by the city/province. Consider as well the income that will generate all of this tax revenue and the good it will do for the people and business community of Montreal.

Read the report before casting judgement. I'll post again when I've finished reading the report. I'm just over halfway through.

Here's another interesting point. The study also lists $500 M for the cost of acquiring a franchise to move here. I'm not sure that's necessary. Stuart Sternberg, who purchased the team in 2004 and who has run a model franchise since, has no ties to the Tampa area. He, in fact, lives in New York. The Rays could well move here without a change in ownership. One of the greatest sources of revenue/equity in MLB ownership is in the increase in value of the franchise. Currently, the Rays are the least valuable MLB franchise, worth $451 M. (Forbes, March 2013.) The increase in the franchises value by moving to a market where attendance would increase 2-3 fold cannot be overlooked.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I'd love to see baseball come back to Montreal, and have a stadium downtown, but expecting help from governments in the current context is daydreaming IMHO.

Perhaps not after you hear the rest. And remember, that $1.1 B comes after the $335 M investment has been repaid. It's not taking away from repairing the infrastructure, but creating more revenue to throw that way.

Here's more: During construction, the ballpark will add $130 M per year to the Quebec GDP and create 1,539 jobs. Once the ballpark is built and in operation, it will continue to add $118 M annually to the Quebec GDP while creating 1,887 jobs.

And, once again, this takes nothing away from fixing our miserable infrastructure, but quite the reverse.

 

[smuler]

With infrastructure falling apart and needing urgent replacement, good luck selling the idea to the governments that this is viable

Hi Reverdy

I have the answer...

Just win the Olympic bid :canada:

Best Regards

Smuler

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I think there's enough known now about the economics of professional sports, and building stadiums and arenas that the governments will think twice before putting money into this project, as good as it sounds and looks on paper.

As near as I can tell, the study doesn't speak about how other cities have recaptured their investments, if indeed they have. Quebec has a huge advantage over other States/Provinces in that taxes here are so high as to make the recapture quite feasible. The $10 M in income taxes is exactly $10 M more than Miami is getting from the Marlins.

One thing is clear and I don't know how this applies to the Colisee in Quebec. The report states unequivocally the stadium cannot be built on spec, but that a commitment from a team must come first. Quebec is a small town compared to Montreal; it will be very interesting to see the reaction of the Montreal business community to this report. BTW, Montreal is the 15th largest metropolitan area in the US and Canada. (The report mistakenly refers to us as the 15th largest in North America, seemingly forgetting about Mexico.)

Also, while the findings of this study are very positive, I'm not enough of an analyst to make any kind of judgement on them. All I can vouch for is that Ernst and Young have a top notch reputation.

It will happen. It's just a matter of time.

The Wall St. Journal is paying attention:

Group Touts Baseball’s Return to Montreal

Can baseball make a comeback in Montreal? Mais oui.

That’s the conclusion of a study that explored the financial viability of seeing Major League Baseball return to a city that hasn’t seen a professional baseball game since the Montreal Expos flocked to Washington D.C. at the end of the 2004 season.

“Based on several realistic assumptions, including broadcasting revenues and ticket sales similar to MLB averages, baseball’s return to Montreal is definitely feasible,” Warren Cromartie, president and founder of the Montreal Baseball Project and former Expos player, said in a statement. His group, along with the Board of Trade of Greater Montreal and other partners, commissioned the study.

Before baseball could return to the city, though, Montreal needs a new baseball stadium, and one-third of the cost of the estimate total 1.025 billion Canadian dollar ($963 million) cost should come from public funds, the group said.

That might be a tough sell, especially given that the province recently pushed back its forecast for a return to a balanced budget due to a revenue shortfall. But a new stadium might just be what Montreal might need to see the sport succeed in the city.

The Olympic Stadium, the Expos’ old home, was lambasted by fans and players alike for decrepit fielding conditions and cavernous playing environment.

Some fans shrugged off concerns over using public funds to lure baseball back to Montreal, saying the government could see its investment paid back in eight years by using MLB’s revenue-sharing model, which wasn’t in place when the Expos were around.

“Everything in [the study] is fairly reasonable. I don’t see anything in the study that isn’t out-of-whack or far-fetched,” said Matthew Ross, founder of Expos Nation, a non-profit organization that acts as a de facto fan club for the storied franchise.

Michel Leblanc, chief executive of the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal, said a new team in Montreal would boost Quebec’s economy during and after construction.

Jonah Keri, the author of a soon-to-be released book on the history of the Montreal Expos, said financial backing will remain a major hurdle for baseball in the city. But he said a major corporate sponsor could materialize.

Representatives from the Quebec government couldn’t immediately be reached.

Montreal’s return as a baseball town received some added weight Wednesday when American sports agent Scott Boras told reporters during the annual MLB Winter Meetings in Florida that Montreal would make an ideal candidate for MLB action, fueling speculation among wistful Expos fans. The Expos were the first MLB team to play outside the U.S., and achieved modest success during their 40-year run. They won the National League East division in 1981 while it was the best team in the majors in 1994 until a work stoppage forced the cancellation of the rest of the season. The franchise lives on as the Washington Nationals.

 

[lgna69xxx]

While all this is encouraging, i tend to agree that the new stadium issue is a major hurdle to overcome and likely not gonna happen any time soon, UNLESS it is 100% privately funded and who knows what the chances of that are?

For the record rumpie, i hope your optimism is correct but even if it is, what are we talking about as far as hearing the ump yell for the first time in Montreal since the Expos left "Play Ball"....8 years? 10 years? ......15? I think we have a better shot of watching a Reverdy live 4 way in the next 3 months than a Expos game again in the next 10 years, earliest.

I would however attend at least 20 games a season, likely more. Hey, ya never know, sometimes things can happen at warp speed, just look at how quick the Baltimore Colts became the Indy Colts. Anything is possible and i think the job Cromartie has done is nothing short of Phenominal!

GO EXPOS!

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

For the record rumpie, i hope your optimism is correct but even if it is, what are we talking about as far as hearing the ump yell for the first time in Montreal since the Expos left "Play Ball"....8 years? 10 years?

About a year ago, I made the statement that it would happen within 10 years. We're down to 9 and I stand by it. It was just a whisper back then, and the wind is blowing stronger every day.

I would however attend at least 20 games a season.

I've committed to 20 games a year myself.

i think the job Cromartie has done is nothing short of Phenominal! .

Absolutely.

GO EXPOS!

My sense is that the new team will need a new name. Kind of silly having a team named after a temporary exposition that ended over 50 years ago. If I were commissioner, I'd have the Kansas City team change their name to Monarchs or Blues and return the name Royals to Montreal.

As for the public money to build the ballpark, there's certainly going to be resistance. The report certainly spells out how the city and province are going to get their money back. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the press in the upcoming months. The public money, however, is the cart before the horse. First we need a franchise.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

From the Gazette:

"And I have an impression that even in the political realm this project is seen as a very mobilizing project for Montrealers and for Quebecers. So I got a sense that if the numbers are right, if the analysis is done with rigorous assumptions, that we might have a go from all stakeholders," Cromartie said.

"But again, the pressure is on the private sector. The pressure is will the private sector invest, will they be there?

And then we'll look at what are the other supports that are needed."

The city will look at the feasibility study "with a lot of interest," said Montreal mayor Denis Coderre.

"I have a positive outlook on the feasibility study, but at the same time I think it's a bit premature to talk about public finances," said Coderre, who called himself a 'huge baseball fan."

"I think Montreal is a baseball city, Montreal is a major-league city. I will meet with people from the private sector because they are saying two-thirds of the money will come from the private sector."

The Board of Trade, the Montreal Baseball Project and the law firm BCF have created a company called Montreal Homerun Project Inc. to pursue their efforts.

Richard Epstein, business lawyer at BCF, laid out a preliminary timeline for the next steps, which includes scheduling meetings with current financial contributors. In the first six months of next year, they want to identify leaders to become lead investors in the project. Then they plan to carry out a site selection study and identify sources of financing for the project, he said.

"After these steps have gained traction we'll be able to identify prospective teams for relocation to Montreal," Epstein said.

 

[wasisname]

Some of us can handle nuance, and some of us cannot. Have you given football a try; it's much easier to comprehend.

I don't watch any sport. I agree with covert bailey who on American Football said something like, its 40K people who don't get enough exercise watching 22 people get way too much.

I'd promise you that if you took the tribalism and gambling out of the game the stands would be 90% empty. If the games were played between two teams of randomly alloted players with no identifiers except for a generic blue or red uniform again randomly assigned few so called fans would care. Well except for the football firms but really they arn't spectators but rather partisipants in their own hooligan games.

Nuance. Yeah sure.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fraSdN-PG8

Not that anyone will click even though there are two hot chicks so...


I promise I really totally care who wins
If there's a net or hoop or hole in the ground, I hope they get it in
If they want to go to all the bases, I hope they do
If they're supposed to run past a line or whatever, I hope they do that, too

Sports go sports!

May they top their opponents numerically in the allotted time
Lest they disenfranchise their audience
and see their revenues decline

May the partakers be sturdy and rapid
In the spirited energies they exert
May they be victorious in perpetuity
Don't I look cute in this football shirt




Sports go sports! Athletics are number one! Participants are heroes! Go team yeah!

This is the most important thing that's ever occurred
The vicarious fulfillment of your dream that got deferred
You has aspirations as a kid but you didn't have the skill
So you watch genetically superior people do the things you never will

Sports go Sports!

May the competitors you prefer
best their opposing equivalents:
So you can somehow feel connected to the feat of your self-appointed constituents
May the hours you spend watching post-match pontificators
Amplify the thrill of being a witness
And better your predictive aptitude
For your squad's future physical fitness

Sports go sports! Athletics are number one! Participants are heroes! Go team yeah!


Watching abile-bodied millionaires play with each other
Watching less agile millionaire talk about it on TV
May they compile copious points so they are rewarded and meritorious
So you feel temporarily, adjacently victorious

Sports go sports! Athletics are number one! Participants are heroes! Go team yeah!

Every other word:
Sports! Sports! Athletics! Number! Participants! Heroes! Go! Yeah!

Every other other word:
Go! Athletics! Number! Are! Team!

Now in Latin: [wasisname edit... ok really bad latin from what I understand]
Ludis ire ludis
Arcu sunt optimum
Participants sunt heroes
Ire quadrigus sic

Now the truth:
If you could only throw a ball
You'd have a hotter wife
Lots and lots of money
And a way better life
And a way better life
Go Sports!

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I don't watch any sport.

Gotta hand it to you, was. I don't know how much time you wasted on this post, but it pulled a perfect 23.7 score on the Perlstein Scale which measures time wasted on a useless post against the likelihood of anyone bothering to read it. A new Merb record for futility. Hope you enjoyed yourself.

 

[Lily from Montreal]

I was so excited when I read the paper this morning, Cromartie was always a favorite of mine, loved his bum in uniform back then and love his tenacity now! I will go for sure in March and hope all the stars will aligned to get back my Expos...I like hockey and football but baseball is my favorite...Surprised? A nerd into sports lol,but just watching, only sport I practice is sex...loll

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Cromartie was always a favorite of mine, loved his bum in uniform back then and love his tenacity now!

Hmmm, why am I not surprised to read this.

I will go for sure in March and hope all the stars will aligned to get back my Expos...

Lily, you will never get your Expos back. Hopefully, the new team will have a new name. And it will likely be an American League team.

The pitfalls that I see are two: 1) Getting a franchise to commit to moving here. The Tampa Bay Rays, who desperately need a new home, is the only logical choice and 2) getting the Quebec politicians on board. Their job is to convince the public that the money is an investment not a black hole. Hopefully, they'll be foresighted enough, articulate enough and courageous enough to get on board.

The simple truth is that Montreal is, and always has been, a great baseball city. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Royals http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delorimier_Stadium

 

[Lily from Montreal]

They will become my team ...if we built it they will come...I loved that movie loll
I always wondered why the baseball didn't do like the football and have a canadian league? there is enough cities that can support a team of that level,no?I would say Montreal, Ottawa,Toronto,Calgary and maybe Vancouver and another city and we have a league?

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I always wondered why the baseball didn't do like the football and have a canadian league?

Lily, the CFL is a minor league, populated by players who could not make it in the NFL. Montreal and Toronto are major league cities, both of which had minor league teams before the majors came to town. Edmonton, Calgary, Quebec and Vancouver have also had minor league teams in the past and most of them currently field independent league teams.

There's an interesting article in the Gazette today, in part:

"MONTREAL — Hello there, Bell Canada. Interested in buying a baseball team?

Nobody came right out and asked that question on Thursday, when a study was released claiming that major league baseball would be economically viable if it returned to Montreal.

No potential investors or buyers were mentioned in the study produced by consulting firm EY with the help of the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal and the Montreal Baseball Project run by former Expo Warren Cromartie.

But Board president Michel Leblanc said owning a team in this city could offer private investors “an interesting business opportunity,” especially if the new owners “can combine this asset with sports content broadcast activities.”

Bell comes to mind because its sports channel TSN just lost a bidding war for the rights to televise National Hockey League games in Canada. The $5-billion deal was landed by rival Sportsnet, owned by Rogers Communications.

The loss of NHL content will create a big hole in TSN programming that might eventually be filled with a deal to televise a Montreal baseball team, if the city could ever get one.

Sports is seen as the most valuable content on TV in the eyes of advertisers because consumers prefer to watch it live rather than on PVR.

Owning a sports franchise wouldn’t be unprecedented for Bell, since it partnered with Rogers to buy Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, owners of the NHL Maple Leafs, NBA Raptors and Toronto FC of Major League Soccer.

And owning a Montreal baseball team could provide another way for Bell to compete against Rogers’ ownership of the Toronto Blue Jays and all the content that it supplies to summertime audiences across Canada.

Ownership by a broadcasting group is just about the only scenario that makes sense if baseball were to return to Montreal. It would provide financial leverage in the sense that even if the team had trouble making money on the field, the value of a broadcasting deal would be far greater."

 

[Lily from Montreal]

That would be a great idea, Bell can afford it and we would get our team...

 

[wasisname]

Gotta hand it to you, was. I don't know how much time you wasted on this post, but it pulled a perfect 23.7 score on the Perlstein Scale which measures time wasted on a useless post against the likelihood of anyone bothering to read it. A new Merb record for futility. Hope you enjoyed yourself.

You do realize that almost all of it was a cut and paste right.

Also if you want to talk wasted time. Your post count is 10 times higher than mine with similar start dates. Considering your posting history I'd say this is a case of the pot calling the kettle African American.

Also anything that involves Kate Micucci is by deinifition not a waste of time. Everything is made better with Kate Micucci.

 

[Techman]

...

2) getting the Quebec politicians on board. Their job is to convince the public that the money is an investment not a black hole. Hopefully, they'll be foresighted enough, articulate enough and courageous enough to get on board.

The simple truth is that Montreal is, and always has been, a great baseball city. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Royals http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delorimier_Stadium

The politicians should be able to manage it if they actually put some effort into it. If they can convince a large portion of the population that Quebec should separate, that Canada takes more money out of Quebec than they put back in, that the French language is in danger, and to continue electing PQ governments...DAMN! They should be able to convince the population about anything!