Exept a few times like The Dark Knight and Heath Ledger, most of the oscar awards are going to film i have zero interest for and that i find either boring or terrible if i end up watching them.
All numbers being domestic:
2017 was a bad year, the highest grossing nominee was Dunkirk, 14th with 188M, Get Out 15th with 176M are the 2 movies that people didn't go see because ''Oscar nomination''. The Post, the 3rd highest grossing nominee (39th overall), made about 40% of it's Box-Office number post-nomination and post-awards. Dunkirk and Get Out are the 2 nominees NOT released in November or December. Average Nominees gross: 78.7M
2016: Hidden Figures (14th; 169M, 50% Post-Nom+Award), then you get 19th (La La Land), 29th (Arrival), etc. Only non-November-December release were Hell or High Water (August, 27M, 95th) and eventual winner Moonlight (last October week). Average Nominees gross: 77.8M
2015: The Martian (8th, 228M), The Revenant (13th, 183M, clear Oscar Bait) and Max Max: Fury Road (21st, 153M) lead. I'd argue The Martian and specially Mad Max are not ''typical Oscar movies''. Average Nominees gross: 100.8M
2014: American Sniper was the highest domestic grosser with 350M, more than 50% of the nominees' total yearly gross, probably would have been the highest grosser even without a nomination. Grand Budapest Hotel by Wes Anderson is no surprise on the list, but it was released in March. Average Nominees gross: 83.6M
I won't keep doing it for each year, but of note are:
2010: Toy Story 3 (1st, 415M), Inception (6th, 292M), True Grit (13th, 171M), The King's Speech (18th, 135M), Black Swan (25th, 106M),The Social Network (32nd, 96M) and The Fighter (35th, 93M) were all great grossers, +3 weak. Average Nominees gross: 135M. That's the last year I'd argue most of the nominees were arguably popular movies. The Winner was The King's Speech.
2009 had 3 fantastic grossers: Avatar (1st, 750M), Up (5th, 293M) and The Blind Side (8th, 256M), the winner being The Hurt Locker (116th, 17M). Average: 170M, thanks mostly to Avatar.
2009 also has the distinction of being when the Academy allowed for more nominees. Still, the tendency since 2003 has been 2 or 3 movies between 10th and 30th highest grossers, then complete the nominees with low box-office movies.
2003 is of course the last year a the highest grosser of the year won Best Picture, with Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, after 2 nominations for the previous movies of the franchise.
I agree the Oscars are very drama-centered. I agree they love when a movie flatters Hollywood's ego.
I do not agree that because few people went to see a movie, it can't be the best. I do think some movies suffer from poor distribution, or are mismarketed, or are frankly too strange to appeal to the masses.
I can't pretend I can see all the craftsmanship that it takes to make a scene, to create a mood, to pick the camera angles or anything like that. I try my best, tho, and I'm not sure that can be said of everybody. I want an opinion on a movie, I trust film critics over ''janet789'', same way I go to a mechanic when my car's got issues.
And on the other end, not all the good grossers are liked. In 2012 the last Twilight movie was 6th yearly. Will anyone dare argue it deserved nominations? The Hobbit movies made a lot of money, but a lot of people agreed that they were waaay too long and...uneventful.
Oh, and Black Panther is going to win the Best Popular Picture. They'll want to show how inclusive they are again, and it actually outgrossed Infinity War domestically, and, y'know, America, self-centered, kinda goes together.