2012 Off-Season Baseball Thread

[Special K]

I totally agree with your statement. Bobby Valentine would be the worse choice of all for the Red Sox manager's position. His ego is way too big for the small confines of Fenway Park.

For Valentine it will be a very temporary position. I'm sure in 2 years when Farrell's contract is up with the BJ's he'll be back in Fenway.

 

[hungry101]

I just did a bit of research to back up my point. Jonathan Papelbon inherited 10 runners in 2011 and prevented 7 from scoring, Mariano Rivera inherited 17, preventing 11 from scoring. David Robertson inherited 44 runners, preventing 34 from scoring. Daniel Bard inherited 34 runners last year and prevented 29 from scoring.

This is not to say that Bard and Robertson are better pitchers than Papelbon and Rivera, just that the job that they (and other set-up men around the league) are asked to do is more valuable to the team than the job the closer is asked to do.

Rumples - I am willing to admit I am not the stat guy. However, I often wonder what the best stat is to compare and contrast the performance of closers and middle relievers. I know a bad reliever when I see one but the good ones seem to be lucky. I understand there is a componant of "luck" in "good." But what is the best way to compare these guys? The Tigers have a guy, Valverde that was perfect in the save department (45-45). I thought he was very effective late last season but the first 3/4's he was lucky. I do not know how his WHIP compare with the other releivers you mentioned and I do not believe he inherited many runners. the stat you mentioned above would have been a good one in the olden days when relievers only came out when the starter was in a jam and/or he was toast. Also, the WAR stat...how good is it if some one can't understand how it is calculated?

In the end I get frustrated when I hear about how good a releiver is. If they are that good lets seem them get through the order a few times.

And yes the only stat that matters is the Win stat!

 

[Doc Holliday]

For Valentine it will be a very temporary position. I'm sure in 2 years when Farrell's contract is up with the BJ's he'll be back in Fenway.

I sure hope so. I think Farrell's a terrible manager. Great person, players love him....but just not manager material.

The guy i'd want for the Jays is Francona.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Also, the WAR stat...how good is it if some one can't understand how it is calculated?

You don't have to understand a stat to respect it. I don't know how it is calculated either and in fact it is calculated differently by different people who use it. (Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference for two.) I do respect those who create these formulas and for the most part their results support what you'd suspect if you aren't Joe.T or iggy.

In the end I get frustrated when I hear about how good a releiver is. If they are that good lets seem them get through the order a few times.

And, in fact, most good relievers are failed starters, including both Rivera and Papelbon.

And yes the only stat that matters is the Win stat!

For the team, yes. For individual pitchers, wins is a meaningless stat. Want proof? John Lackey was 12-12 last year.

 

[hungry101]

For the team, yes. For individual pitchers, wins is a meaningless stat. Want proof? John Lackey was 12-12 last year.

Yes, this is what I meant...the only stat that means anything is the W for the team. I always say this about the team stats for football....time of possession, first downs, 3rd down conversions, yards rushing, and passing...the only stat that matters at the end of the day is the win/loss stat.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Yes, this is what I meant...the only stat that means anything is the W for the team. I always say this about the team stats for football....time of possession, first downs, 3rd down conversions, yards rushing, and passing...the only stat that matters at the end of the day is the win/loss stat.

And WAR translates almost exactly to a teams W-L record. If you were to add, for example, all the Tigers WAR for 2011, you would get the number of games the team won compared to a team of replacement level players.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I personally have no strong feelings about whether or not the Sox should hire Bobby Valentine. I do, however, trust the current ownership which has given us two World Championships in 10 years and has preserved Fenway Park, one of only two historic ballparks remaining. I am also concerned that there might be too many cooks stirring the broth between Henry, Werner, Lucchino and Cherington.

For those that don't want to read the whole thing, I've highlighted several passages. I should add that of all the writers covering the Red Sox, the two for whom I have the most respect are Pete Abraham and Nick Cafardo. Cafardo has been lobbying for Bobby Valentine for weeks.

What the Red Sox would get with Bobby Valentine as manager
Permalink|Comments (5)Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff November 22, 2011 09:02 AM
(Editor's note: Peter Abraham covered the Mets from 2000-05, first as a backup beat writer and then the beat writer for The Journal News in White Plains, N.Y.)

By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

If Bobby Valentine becomes the next manager of the Red Sox, you're going to want to stay up and watch the postgame show on NESN. Trust me, it'll be entertaining.

I've been lucky enough to cover baseball for the last 12 years and Valentine was the first manager I worked with on a regular basis. During those years, I learned more about baseball than at any other time in my career.

Bobby questioned why the rosters were expanded in September and not in April. It made no sense to him that in the most critical month of the season, teams had uneven numbers of players in uniform. When you think about it, he's right.

He banned his players from sliding into first unless it was to avoid a tag. As he pointed out, if sliding was the fastest way to get there, why don't Olympic sprinters slide across the finish line?

Bobby had the first baseman play a few feet off the bag with a runner on, the idea being that he could still get the tag down on a pickoff while covering more ground. He wasn't afraid to change the lineup or rearrange the bullpen. He embraced players from Japan, Korea and other nations, delighting in asking reporters from those countries about baseball in their homeland.

Bobby talked about military history. He talked about knowing President George W. Bush (who had fired him in Texas) and when the terrorists attacked New York on Sept. 11, he literally worked all night at Shea Stadium day after day, loading trucks and directing traffic to help rescue workers.

Bobby owned a bunch of restaurants and he claimed he invented the wrap. He told us once he invented the autograph show, dragging Nolan Ryan to some hall in Texas to sign for charity.

His father in law is Ralph Branca. Bobby was such a good high school halfback in Connecticut that he was recruited to USC to replace O.J. Simpson. I thought that had to be a fib until I called somebody I knew in Connecticut.

"Yep, best player I've ever seen," the guy told me. "Fast as could be."

Bobby went to speak at the University of Pennsylvania one off day and blasted the team and the front office. Why? Just because. That was a story for a week.

He once got ejected and came back to the dugout wearing a disguise only to get ejected again. He played in the majors when he was 19. He was an accomplished downhill skier and he seemed to know everything about collies. He loves those kind of dogs.

Bobby criticized Roberto Alomar for bunting too often. If Mike Piazza had a big game, he would shoo us out of his office by saying, "Go talk to the big guy." He always had a funny story about something.

It wasn't all fun. Bobby didn't get along with GM Steve Phillips and it got ugly for a while. They back-stabbed each other through the media and those writers who sided with Phillips were shut out. There are writers in New York, otherwise nice reasonable men, who would run a train over Bobby if they could.

One crazy night Bobby startled the media corps by saying somebody was spreading a story that he wanted to be fired. He started crying, it was a confusing mess.

When he finally got fired in 2002, the Mets held their press conference once day and Bobby held his own the next at a restaurant he owned across the street from the stadium. The Mets almost hired him back once and I bet if Fred Wilpon had his way, he would do it tomorrow.

If Valentine comes to Boston, he will embrace everything about Fenway Park and the fans. But he'll challenge the players, too. He won't just assume somebody is good, he'll make them prove it. He won't do what's easy, he'll do what he thinks is right.

If somebody screws up, he'll say it. If somebody in the media writes something he disagrees with, he'll question them about it. He's not a turn the other cheek kind of person.

Bobby is 61 now and my belief is that he wants to try it one more time and to get to another World Series before he walks away from the dugout for good. The Red Sox are the perfect vehicle for him. It's close to home, it's a major market and it's a team built to win.

Plus he can needle the Yankees. He loves needling the Yankees.

Bobby is a young 61, I think. He'll like working with the 30-somethings in baseball operations. He will be the best thing that ever happened to Jose Iglesias. He will get Dice-K back to a point where he wins big games at the end of the season. He'll love Daniel Bard and he'll give Carl Crawford so much confidence that CC will think he's Superman.

He'll also rub some players the wrong way and Ben Cherington might find himself unable to sleep nights wondering what he did to deserve this. Nothing is guaranteed.

The alternative is Gene Lamont with perhaps Torey Lovullo in tow as a manager in waiting.

Lamont seems like a nice man and I'm sure he'd do a fine job. But the Red Sox have finished in third place for two years in a row now. They need shaking up and Bobby Valentine is a professional shaker-upper.

Tough call for the rookie GM. Because once you let Bobby V out of the box, there's no getting him back in. You just hang on.

 

[lgna69xxx]

That was a decent article with a little credibility up until the Dice K winning big games at the end of a season line. Credibility gone and the funniest stuff i have heard this offseason rumpie. Bobby V WILL get the job unless lowballed by the cheap red sox owners, which since many say they are the real ones who want Valentine, consider him the next man to run the asylum.

In other news, Verlander deserved the CY but MVP? Isnt the CY a mvp award for pitchers? Oh well, at least he beat out eLlsbury, so all is well.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Okay true. But the current ownership has been the same when finishing third for three straight and the collapse including the clubhouse atmosphere that now requires the shakeup. I also agree there seems to be too many chiefs trying to make the key decisions.

First of all, it's only two straight third place finishes. What do you want, anyway? A Championship every year? What are you, an entitled Yankee fan?

You know, Merlot, you've been reading too much Doc Holliday. Not only that, you seem to be taking his gibberish seriously. As has been written, the 2011 Red Sox were boy scouts compared to the 2004 Red Sox. So they drank a little beer; in 2004, it was Jack Daniel's. The difference is it was OK then because they won.

Disarray, my sweet Irish ass. They led the majors in runs scored, they have the best front three starting pitchers after Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. They have very few needs. A fourth and fifth starter, some bullpen help. Maybe a right fielder, though they led the league in runs with Drew and Reddick, so they can certainly get by with Reddick and Kalish. And Papi. They won 90 games despite having to rely on starters beyond their front 5 for almost 50 starts.

Relax, pal, and stop listening to the jealous rants of John Henry Holliday. He wishes the Jays had half the talent the Sox do. As he wishes the Leafs had half the talent the Bruins do. Give the poor loser his due, sure, but stop paying attention to him. Or at least stop taking him seriously.

And one more thing. Don't read Dan Shaughnessy or Tony Mazzarotti. They're not good for your mental health.

And if Joe.T make you an offer that Carl Crawford will hit less than .285 with fewer than 18 dingers, take his money. He'll only spend it at the Chablis anyway.

 

[Merlot]

First of all, it's only two straight third place finishes. What do you want, anyway? A Championship every year? What are you, an entitled Yankee fan?

You know, Merlot, you've been reading too much Doc Holliday. Not only that, you seem to be taking his gibberish seriously.

Disarray, my sweet Irish ass.

Relax, pal, and stop listening to the jealous rants of John Henry Holliday.

Well Rumps,

I wrote respectfully with no criticism of you. But if that is the way you want it.

None of what I wrote includes any consideration of anything Doc has said. I always write without being beholding to anyone...right or wrong it's just my opinion. If Doc has agreed with me lately it's not my goal or my problem...just coincidence. As I've already said, I don't care who agrees.

Who are you to be selling this rant and imposing your dislike for Doc on my post, which had no mention or reference of him at all, and attacking me for your issues with him.

If you don't have the manners to stay on subject without imposing your attitude towards others on my post then don't reply.

DONE,

Merlot

 

[Joe.t]

First of all, it's only two straight third place finishes. What do you want, anyway? A Championship every year? What are you, an entitled Yankee fan?

You know, Merlot, you've been reading too much Doc Holliday. Not only that, you seem to be taking his gibberish seriously. As has been written, the 2011 Red Sox were boy scouts compared to the 2004 Red Sox. So they drank a little beer; in 2004, it was Jack Daniel's. The difference is it was OK then because they won.

Disarray, my sweet Irish ass. They led the majors in runs scored, they have the best front three starting pitchers after Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. They have very few needs. A fourth and fifth starter, some bullpen help. Maybe a right fielder, though they led the league in runs with Drew and Reddick, so they can certainly get by with Reddick and Kalish. And Papi. They won 90 games despite having to rely on starters beyond their front 5 for almost 50 starts.

Huh?, I thought that you were Jewish, make your mind will ya.:smile:

 

[lgna69xxx]

And one point from being #1 in the entire NHL@ US Thanksgiving which all but 2 teams made the playoffs last year that were within a playoff spot at that time, just saying, and this date is the measuring stick for teams in the NHL as to what type of team they have for the season.... and yea, rumps, it is never to late to learn the great game of hockey, but my buddy OLD pal, you gotta lot of catching up to do, but i think you can do it if you apply yourself bud.

Onto baseball..... Roy Oswalt a red soc? Hmmmmmmmmmmm , this would improve the red sox rotation beyond lester for sure. Joe.t, make a prediction quick!


http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pl...news.asp?sport=MLB&id=3191&line=345632&spln=1

Now what did i say to bring about such hate?

Look who's talking about jealousy......there's a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black. :crazy:

As for his comment in regards to the Leafs wanting half the talent that the Bruins have, there's the proof that this septagenarian is totally clueless about the game of hockey. Not only do the Leafs lead the Bruins in the standings, but they also have the top 2 scorers in the entire NHL in Phil Kessel & Joffrey Lupul.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I wrote respectfully with no criticism of you. But if that is the way you want it.

Who the F are you to be selling this rant and imposing your dislike for Doc on my post, which had no mention or reference of him at all, and attacking me for your issues with him. You've got some sad F'n nerve PAL!

If you don't have the manners or the balls to stay on subject without imposing your attitude towards others on my post then don't reply. You could well

And any of your angry PMs had better be simultaneously addressed to a mod.

Considering your misreading of my post, this particular part in bold, and your rants directed at iggy lately in the hockey thread, it's pretty clear, Merlot, that you need to address your paranoia.

Despite the awful events of September, the Boston Red Sox today of one of the two or three strongest rosters in all of baseball. The only American League team that may have more talent is the Texas Rangers. My post was simply suggesting that you relax.

Merlot, please read this for a reasoned, dispassionate view of the Sox' strengths and weaknesses at this point in the offseason. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/offseason-decisions-how-much-change-does-boston-need/

As for me, I'll start worrying if Papi signs elsewhere.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Now what did i say to bring about such hate?

Hate, hardly, my dear John Henry Holliday. Just a caution to a friend to suggest that he pay less attention to certain ramblings emanating from the Great White North. I'll gladly meet you behind the OK Corral at sundown to settle this.

Look who's talking about jealousy......there's a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black.

I happen to know for a fact that you'd kill nuns to get Carl Crawford on your team

As for his comment in regards to the Leafs wanting half the talent that the Bruins have, there's the proof that this septagenarian is totally clueless about the game of hockey. Not only do the Leafs lead the Bruins in the standings, but they also have the top 2 scorers in the entire NHL in Phil Kessel & Joffrey Lupul.

Two good weeks in October does not a season make. Unfortunately for the Leaves, Doc, when the end of the season rolls around, all teams will have played the same number of games. If you think leading the Bruins by two points having played two more games amounts to leading them in the standings, be my guest. You can fool yourself, but you can't fool me.

 

[Lovemaker]

I'm getting all nostalgic. This thread reminds me of my teen days. You guys are fighting over a fucking game.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

I'm getting all nostalgic. This thread reminds me of my teen days. You guys are fighting over a fucking game.

Since when is baseball just a game? Actually, it's a religion.

 

[Merlot]

Hmmm,

...he pay less attention to certain ramblings emanating from the Great White North.

It's insulting to say I was basing my views on him when I specifically pointed out other sources and went through the trouble of referring to your post by Abraham. I don't take my cues from him and in view of the extremely pouty biases against the Sox by Doc, and our post arguments all season, that couldn't be possible regardless.

Despite the awful events of September, the Boston Red Sox today of one of the two or three strongest rosters in all of baseball. The only American League team that may have more talent is the Texas Rangers. My post was simply suggesting that you relax.

Again true. But Sox fans should be concerned with the apparent disarray of authority at the top between Cherington and Lucchino, and the known dedication lapses by some key Sox players.

Two good weeks in October does not a season make. Unfortunately for the Leaves, Doc, when the end of the season rolls around, all teams will have played the same number of games. If you think leading the Bruins by two points having played two more games amounts to leading them in the standings, be my guest. You can fool yourself, but you can't fool me.

In just 9 games for the Bruins they closed the gap from the bottom to the top, and now the Leafs fans are bragging after needing 3 more games played to regain a 2 point lead...LOL.

Priceless,

Merlot

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Again true. But any Sox fan who isn't concerned with the apparent disarray of authority at the top between Cherington and Lucchino, and the known dedication lapses by some key Sox players any Sox fan has to be concerned.

I don't think there's disarray at the top, Merlot. Certainly they're not giving Cherington the near-absolute decision making power that Epstein enjoyed in the post-Gorilla suit days, but I think that's to be expected considering that he's new on the job. Lucchino has done an admirable job as president of the club and my sense is that he and Cherington are working as a team. I think that's clear given that Valentine wasn't hired based on his meeting with Lucchino alone.

Valentine worked very well with Craig Wright in his Texas years and is totally on board with the use of modern statistical analysis. My sense is that he'd bring a great blend of talents to the job. As for the dedication lapses you speak of, they were the result of a breakdown in Tito's authority and not the result of any problem between the players and the front office. Again, Valentine is probably the perfect man for the job.

It's insulting to say I was basing my views on him when I specifically pointed out other sources and went through the trouble of referring to your post by Abraham. I don't take my cues from him and in view of the extremely pouty biases against the Sox by Doc, and our post arguments all season, that couldn't be possible regardless.

My apologies. There are quite a few good minds covering the Sox, none of whom go by the names of Shaughnessy and Mazzaroti. Certainly Abraham and Cafardo are good reads. Also, I don't know if you've been reading Alex Speier at weei.com, but he's certainly as knowledgeable and reasoned as Pete and Nick.

As for the Evil Empire, I get most of my information from the Chad Jennings at http://yankees.lhblogs.com/. He took over there for Pete Abraham when Pete came home to Boston.

In just 9 games for the Bruins they closed the gap from the bottom to the top, and now the Leafs fans are bragging after needing 3 more games played to regain a 2 point lead...LOL.

Priceless,

And 2 more games than Philly for their 1 point lead. And 2 more games than Buffalo for their 2 point lead. And 5 more games than New York for their 3 point lead. And 3 more games than Washington for their 3 point lead. In fact, the Leaves, all things considered, including their losing record over the last three weeks, are hanging by a thread in 8th place. Priceless is exactly the word I'd use.

 

[Lovemaker]

That's the spirit boys! Nothing in this world that can't be resolved other than the Palestinian and Israeli confict

 

[Doc Holliday]

Hate, hardly, my dear John Henry Holliday. Just a caution to a friend to suggest that he pay less attention to certain ramblings emanating from the Great White North. I'll gladly meet you behind the OK Corral at sundown to settle this.

Any place, any time. I'll even let you chose the weapon of your choice for our duel. :eyebrows:

I happen to know for a fact that you'd kill nuns to get Carl Crawford on your team

Nope. I would never want "Bigface" on my team. Not for that kind of ridiculous money that the Sox are paying this unproductive bum.