Robertpal:
You are absolutely dead-on right that statistics are only statistics. The fact that the risk is extremely tiny is of little comfort to the person who becomes infected.
A PCR at one month is not 100 percent accurate, but it's really, really close. The test is so sensitive that there is a real risk of a false positive result, in which case an ELISA blood test is used to confirm. I have dealt with people who have received false positives on PCR tests. In the U.S. (not sure how it is in Canada), the PCR is not federally approved for diagnostic purposes, so it's hard to get a doc to give you one. They're available on the Web from a couple reputable places.
At any rate, a negative PCR at one month MUST be confirmed with a blood test at three months.
I've never heard of that European study, but I find it really dubious. Latex condoms used correctly are considered extremely effective against HIV transmission, and I have spoken with several serodiscordant (one partner poz, one negative) couples, both gay and straight, who have been having protected sex for years without the HIV- partner being infected...and, in some cases, they have had occasional unprotected sex.
But you are very, very right in reminding people that despite the risk being very low, it only takes one encounter. However, I would say that you are taking a much, much larger risk having unprotected sex with a "nice" woman you meet than you take when you have protected sex with an SP. After all, the SP has had the sense to have protected sex. I've yet to hear one say "Hey...let's go bareback!"
Best,
Bumfie