SWINE FLU ---- airplanes + internet = pandemic hysteria

[Time to Punt]

Yes, other diseases have different hospitalization rates, and kill rates.

And?? Your point is??

Jesus Christ, I don't believe I'm even discussing this.

The W.H.O. level criteria is very transparent, and if you actually take the time to read factual scientific materials instead of politically-driven crap (you know, which was your actually knock against the W.H.O., but you have completely failed to prove), you might come away educated.

http://who.int

Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response (EPR)

I have been reading it . My question has always been why the criteria stated are unevenly applied and what good are they if they are silent about more serious deseases ?

Look I appreciate you are the type of guy that finds it impossible to admit he's wrong which is why I didn't want to get into this debate. You wanted facts, I gave you facts. Facts that were provided were:

1. Seasonal flu is considerably more harmfull than swine flu because a) the kill rate is much higher and b) the hopitalization rate is higher

2. Seasonal flu is easier to spread that swine flu

3. A level 5 pandemic warning is posted for the less serious of the two flus

If all of the above are true, then one has to question the process and some of the decisions. If the above are not true please dispute with some facts this time instead of ranting.

You have consistently provided no factual evidence to suggest that swine flu in it's current form is worse than seasonal flu for which no WHO warnings are issued. All the facts that I have cited prove the reverse. I am prepared to say I was wrong if the facts are incorrect . You, on the other hand, don't even seem to be prepared to acknowledge them solely because the statistics were found, amongst other places, in an article written by someone you have chosen to dislike.

As far as being politically driven, by definition there is no greater politically driven body than United Nations (corrected). To say that they and their various divisions are above politics is terminally naive. If nothing else they have to carry out a mandate which ensures continuity of funding for various initiatives. Consider also that they would be more severely criticized for not "ringing the bell" soon enough and loud enough than they ever will be for the reverse.

Keep in mind WHO is just compiling data; they are not genetically tearing apart the virus, they are not on the ground treating patients, they are not testing samples, they are not developing immunization inoculations. All this is being done by Canadian, US and Mexican medical authorities. Sorry but I will listen to them instead of WHO.

Until you have something factual on the desease which proves it is as dangerous as seasonal flu there seems to be little point in continuing to cover the same ground.

Who knows (pun intended) maybe you will get lucky and it will mutate into something more deadly and you can say " I told you so".

 

[YouVantOption]

I have been reading it . My question has always been why the criteria stated are unevenly applied and what good are they if they are silent about more serious deseases ?

Your question has not always been that. You started out by asserting that the W.H.O. is politically-driven. Nothing more.

1. Seasonal flu is considerably more harmfull than swine flu because a) the kill rate is much higher and b) the hopitalization rate is higher

Both of these assertions are wrong. More people die from seasonal flu, and are hospitalized. Please take a basic mathematics class. More people have been hospitalized and have died from Swine Flu, proportionately, among the number of cases. Ergo scientists concern about the flu.

2. Seasonal flu is easier to spread that swine flu

Since the science is still out on N1H1, I'll refrain from commenting, something I suggest you do as well. it makes you look silly when you comment about stuff without actual facts in hand.

You have consistently provided no factual evidence to suggest that swine flu in it's current form is worse than seasonal flu for which no WHO warnings are issued. All the facts that I have cited prove the reverse. I am prepared to say I was wrong if the facts are incorrect . You, on the other hand, don't even seem to be prepared to acknowledge them solely because the statistics were found, amongst other places, in an article written by someone you have chosen to dislike.

You have said you don't mind if someone pulls statistics out of their ass, and that you discount the W.H.O. because it is 'political', so whatever.

As far as being politically driven, by definition there is no greater politically driven body than NATO.

What in God's name does NATO have to do with this discussion?

Keep in mind WHO is just compiling data; they are not genetically tearing apart the virus, they are not on the ground treating patients, they are not testing samples, they are not developing immunization inoculations. All this is being done by Canadian, US and Mexican medical authorities. Sorry but I will listen to them instead of WHO.

All of whom file reports at a centralized body, for dissemination to other teams. Who is that, again? Wait, I know this one ...

Who knows (pun intended) maybe you will get lucky and it will mutate into something more deadly and you can say " I told you so".

I have a close relative who is an epidemiologist. A close work colleague who is a biologist. And someone very close to me who had N1H1. I have been actively studying pandemics for professional reasons for about a year.

I've done my homework on the disease.

You want to use what you read in the nation's shittiest paper to counter facts by the world's premier centralized organization that deals with epidemics and pandemics on a daily basis, again, good for you.

And who knows, when you get the Sudanese strain of Ebola, that has only killed 5 people (out of 20 infected), I'm sure you won't have anything to worry about, because the National Post said so.

 

[Time to Punt]

Both of these assertions are wrong. More people die from seasonal flu, and are hospitalized. Please take a basic mathematics class. More people have been hospitalized and have died from Swine Flu, proportionately, among the number of cases. Ergo scientists concern about the flu.

Really? So if 2 people get it and 1 dies you would issue a level 6 pandemic alert

Since the science is still out on N1H1, I'll refrain from commenting, something I suggest you do as well. it makes you look silly when you comment about stuff without actual facts in hand.

What facts do you want other than death rates, hopitalization rates, transmission rates ? What scientific experiments are in progress that you awaiting the result of ?

You have said you don't mind if someone pulls statistics out of their ass

I did? Where did I say it was ok to pull stats out their ass?

What in God's name does NATO have to do with this discussion?

Nothing. It's the United Nations which is the political body that runs WHO

I have a close relative who is an epidemiologist. A close work colleague who is a biologist. And someone very close to me who had N1H1.

You used the past tense so hopefully they are fully over it

I have been actively studying pandemics for professional reasons for about a year.

I've done my homework on the disease.

I guess I have to take your word for that. So having studied all these pandemics how does this one stack up with the others so far ?

You want to use what you read in the nation's shittiest paper to counter facts by the world's premier centralized organization that deals with epidemics and pandemics on a daily basis, again, good for you.

Sorry you don't like the National Post. What facts are they countering. I don't think anyone has disagreed with the stats published by WHO. In fact the stats speak for themselves. People are just comparing those stats with the stats for seasonal flu. It's the level of concern and hype given the comparison that people are questioning.

And who knows, when you get the Sudanese strain of Ebola, that has only killed 5 people (out of 20 infected), I'm sure you won't have anything to worry about, because the National Post said so.

This is a childish remark.

 

[NathanJ]

Hey guys ! shouldn`t you just PM yourselves or shake hands and move on ?

The Media hasn't got much to tell us at this time. That's all.

What was it now ? The Obamania ? Climatic changes ? Wallstreet scandals ? Automakers going down ? Economic crisis ? Ben vs. Bush vs. Sadam ? Afghanistan, Pakistan and somewhereistan ? etc...

Hey ? how about scarring the sh*t out of people to make them forget that the economy is sooooo bad !

 

[Time to Punt]

Hey guys ! shouldn`t you just PM yourselves or shake hands and move on ?

You are quite right I suspect this is getting quite boring for those who have read it. Until some new facts surface that indicate a change in direction there is nothing more to say except ta ta on this subject.

 

[YouVantOption]

Really? So if 2 people get it and 1 dies you would issue a level 6 pandemic alert

I would do no such thing. The scientists who make informed decision based upon fact culled from all laboratory-confirmed cases make such decisions.

What facts do you want other than death rates, hopitalization rates, transmission rates ? What scientific experiments are in progress that you awaiting the result of ?

once again your brain is mushing things together. I said I do not know if N!H! is more or less virulent than seasonal flu. The death rates and hospitalization rates are a point of fact, about which you are incorrect. The death rate and hospitalization rate of N1H1 is higher. Deal with it. Rate does not equal total numbers, duh.

I did? Where did I say it was ok to pull stats out their ass?

"That means no swine flu pandemic. The WHO can label it a pandemic; they can also label it a wombat."

Yeah, citing someone who still questions the validity of heterosexual A.I.D.s and whether or not there is a problem with the environment, a lawyer who speaks on behalf of a conservative lobby-group/think-tank, I'd say any facts might be anally-originated in such a case.

It's the level of concern and hype given the comparison that people are questioning.

the hype is a product of the media and their topic-du-jour. the concern in the scientific community is not to be trifled with. their concern is real, low-key and under-stated, and cautious, but based in solid evidence.

You know, you insist I don't ever admit I am wrong. That is incorrect. I work professionally in circumstances where I am very often the least intelligent person in the room. I don't find that at all disconcerting. I know when to STFU and listen to my betters, people with intellect, experience and knowledge I don't have. I make mistakes, and learn from them, by searching out factual information from credible sources. Everyday.

 

[Time to Punt]

You know, you insist I don't ever admit I am wrong. That is incorrect. I work professionally in circumstances where I am very often the least intelligent person in the room.

Sorry bit my tongue

For more interesting reading:

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/2009/asean_influenza_ah1n1_20090508/en/index.html

together with;

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_05_06/en/index.html

 

[EagerBeaver]

It's amazing to me that nobody has discussed the first reported H1N1 death in Canada:

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-world/20090424/INTERNATIONAL-US-FLU/

 

[eastender]

Not Really

It's amazing to me that nobody has discussed the first reported H1N1 death in Canada:

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-world/20090424/INTERNATIONAL-US-FLU/

EB,

Opinion or hypotheticals trump fact.

 

[Possum Trot]

It's amazing to me that nobody has discussed the first reported H1N1 death in Canada:

http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-world/20090424/INTERNATIONAL-US-FLU/

She apparently had a significant previous medical condition not disimilar to the 2nd woman who died in the US. The flu was described as a contibuting factor in one newspaper report

 

[YouVantOption]

Oh NOes! That pesky SCIENCE intrudes again!!

Judging the WHO's Reaction to the H1N1 Flu Threat

new research suggests that the WHO acted wisely in raising the pandemic alarm — and that the threat of H1N1 may not have passed. In a study released May 11 in the journal Science, researchers from Imperial College London, along with WHO staff and Mexican scientists, conclude that H1N1 is transmitted considerably easier than the regular seasonal flu and is about as deadly as the 1957 Asian flu, which killed about 2 million people worldwide. A World Bank study last year found that a pandemic of similar severity today might kill 14.2 million people around the world, and cut 2% from the global economy.

 

[Time to Punt]

Judging the WHO's Reaction to the H1N1 Flu Threat

lol read the article again. The data concerning death rate and transmission was from very early on and has since been corrected by the Mexican authorities. The current best guess transmission rate of 1.3 is considered low and the death rate so far is no where near comparable to the Asian flu.

Something is clearly wrong with the data in this article as total deaths fron the Asian flu in 1957 was put at between 1 and 2 million. Either people are going to start dropping like flies very soon in Canada and the US or these people are going to be embarrassed by their claims of equal severity. You cannot have a very limited number of deaths and still claim that it is as deadly as the 1957 version AND spreads as easily as seasonal flu. To be fair the article does state :

The authors of the Science paper based their findings on early data from the H1N1 outbreak, estimating that about 23,000 people had been infected in Mexico by late April, with a fatality rate of about 0.4%. Those numbers come with a wide margin for error on either side, and there are still holes in the epidemiology

Just a note but 56 deaths ( yesterday's total per WHO) in Mexico divided by 23000 equals 0.2% and not 0.4 % cited in this report. On the assumption that they can divide numbers acurrately they must be working with the early, inaccurate data. This, of course negates their conclusions somewhate. It is uncertain where the 23,000 infection number comes and maybe just a WAG from a Mexican official.

You need to make sure your "science claims" are accurate and up to date there YVO.

In a somewhat more frank opinion Dr. Peter Singer Director for the Mclauglin-Rotman Centre for Global health at University Health Network and University of Toronto said on Monday

" The WHO response was robust, but its pandemic scale sends the wrong signal to the public. It can reach its top level in a mild pandemic so it appears to foretell doomsday even if people around the world have only the sniffles "

Actually in the article you linked mentioned as a significant shortcoming of the WHO system as well.



Singer goes on to note that Canada and the US have done far more on this than WHO in getting to the bottom of H1N1: " Canadian scientists sequenced the genome of the virus and showed that it was the same in Canada as in Mexico. They deserve praise for helping Mexican authorities test virus samples. We have anti-viral stockpiles of 55 million doses and have started to develop a vaccine"

Singer blames the media for the over-hyping but does state that "it's a sad coincidence that while a million people died in the 1957 and 1968 flu pandemics, the same number, mostly children under 5 in Africa, die each year of Malaria." Mosquitos are obviously better friends to WHO than swine.

 

[NathanJ]

Here's a way to forget a moment about all this epidemic thing...

2009: Sergey Tuganov, a 28-year-old Russian died after betting two women that he could have non-stop sex with them both for twelve hours. He dropped dead minutes after winning the $4,300 bet. Medics said he died of heart attack, most likely because of the quantity of stimulating pills (Viagra) he had ingested.

Remember... you could live all you rlife without never be threatened by anything and... just die because you wanted to win this bet !

 

[Possum Trot]

Ok so I came back from Montreal Friday morning last week and on Saturday night I start developing the flu symptoms, cough, bit of a sore throat, weakness in the legs , sniffles a hot flash or two. Not too bad really but enough so that I know I have something. Now I feel obligated to go get tested whereas before I would just be cursing because I caught a summer cold.

Will let you know how this turns out.

 

[bond_james_bond]

First death in Quebec from Swine Flu

http://www.canada.com/Health/reports+first+death+related+swine/1675111/story.html

 

[Time to Punt]

While I don't mean to understate the tragedy for this person and her family let's all consider that so far we have 4 deaths versus a yearly flu average of over 3,000 deaths and that more people died of West Nile in this country in 2002 than have died from Swine flu.

This desease will only become serious ( in comparison to others) if it mutates.

 

[Halloween Mike]

Seem like it kill only old person or ones with other probleme, i think the youngster like us are strong enought to destroy it. I have been sick a few times, one time this year i felt so bad, it lasted like a week, feel dizzy a lot, nose and eyes watering, dosen't know how to describe everything in english but that was a hard one. And yeah its damn annoying, hope it dosen't happen too much often, but my system overall seem to be strong.

As for an SP showing at my door with a cold or such, no way im gonna accept, no chance to take seriously...

 

[EagerBeaver]

Costa Rican President Has Swine Flu

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/08/11/costa.rica.president.h1n1.flu/index.html

 

[Time to Punt]

This is news ? The article says he is in good health and his Doctor prescribed a week in bed

 

[vodka236]

many good sites out there...

i know some of you like numbers.
just hope vaccination campaign will come soon, especially for people at risk.