The 2020 Draft - Who's in, Who's out?

[sambuca]

Is Beto the moderate? I think the liberal side is overcrowded. It could be a good lane for him to run in as the younger, fresher moderate alternative to Biden.

It seems like he's currently trying to run a Bill McKay (Robert Redford in The Candidate) type of idealistic, handsome, and charismatic campaign. Is that really a moderate?

 

[sambuca]

You have to realize some Republicans who don't like Trump will likely come over to vote for a strong moderate candidate in the Democratic primary as long as the candidate is legitimately moderate. Fifty shades of Socialist doesn't cut it.

Hey, do you suppose over the counter hemorrhoid cream will be covered under a govt. single payer plan?

 

[sambuca]

I expect Booker and Bernie officially in by the end of next week.

Some of us think the Dems are working this identity politics thing way too hard. So my question is can an African-American man beat a half Jamaican-American, half Asian-American woman?

Some Dems might find that question offensive, but I think Kamala over Corey had already been decided unless she screws up badly. Kamala checks more boxes plus she has a box.

 

[sambuca]

Also, that Starbucks guy teased an announcement and looks like he is not liking the response.

I think the response was "Hey Starbucks guy, don't muck things up as an independent. Get your ass into the primary like a real politician or stay out!"

He's certainly not courting the Far Left. I love his line "‘I think the Democrats need a little bit less caffeine right now." Is that what's going on with Pelosi's eyes?

 

[Valcazar]

^^^^@sambuca - Schultz is definitely not courting the far left, no. I still think his most likely effect is pulling off some moderates and helping Trump, so I understnd the pushback strategically. Separate from that though is the fact people don't like someone just buying their way onto the ballot instead of having to face primary voters and the additional fact he seems to have no actual policy or ideas. I mean, his whole pitch as "centrist independent" seems to be "everyone else is mean and wrong". That's weak on its own, but if you add in that his answer to policy questions is basically that he doesn't know but he will get smart people together to figure it out... that's hard to take seriously.

He's got a year plus to get his shit together though. I think he was genuinely surprised that people thought he had to have actual policy positions and to have thought about what he would do as president. Maybe now that he realizes he has to prepare he will step up his game.

 

[Valcazar]

Some of us think the Dems are working this identity politics thing way too hard.

I know, and it cracks me up since the GOP is the identity politics party now. As for Booker vs Kamela, the major knock isn't identity, it is that Booker has a history of pro-wall street stuff (which actually makes sense since he represents New Jersey - of course he should look out for his constituents) and the fact that locally people have often criticized him as wanting to be a famous politician a lot more than him wanting to be a good one.

At this point, Harris is the person to beat. She's got a good rep and she has a massive advantage with California so early in the primary calendar. But no one in the upper tier is going to bow out before the voting starts unless they have a major gaffe or they find they absolutely can't raise any money. (My guess, anyway.)

You have to realize some Republicans who don't like Trump will likely come over to vote for a strong moderate candidate in the Democratic primary as long as the candidate is legitimately moderate. Fifty shades of Socialist doesn't cut it.

Yes, this is the Shultz danger. How many need to actually cross over vs simply not voting for Trump again? And, more importantly, how are they distributed? No one thinks Trump is going to win the popular vote, and he will probably get an even smaller share than last time. But he can still win if he has the right spread of marginal victories.

As for your hemorrhoid cream question, probably not. OTC isn't covered in Canada and I doubt any version of single payer proposed in the US would do so.

Is Beto the moderate?

Comparatively, yes. If you look at his positions and voting record, he comes off to the right of most of the current candidates. He was quite left for what we usually see in Texas, but left in Texas is pretty center in the country.

 

[sambuca]

I don't think Beto's initial remarks since becoming a viable candidate were moderate. Going further, I think he would make a tremendous mistake if he chose to run in the crowded liberal lane in the Democratic primaries. Again, I don't care what your undeveloped remark about Republican "identity politics" means. Beto would get chewed up by the Female and Minority candidates in the liberal field.

I don't think he is a polished and competent politician as he is built up to be. Texans were really tired of Ted Cruz' schtick and Beto was the benefactor of that in his close but no cigar Senate race. I would say that he was very popular with young voters, but that was against Grandpa Munster and not Kamala, Corey and all the rest of the Democratic field.

 

[sambuca]

Let's be real running as a Moderate in the Democratic field is going to take a lot of skill. It could be tempting to be drawn to the Left by the intensity of the base. It is likely the base will be very aggressive towards such a candidate. Biden and Bloomberg have the most experience and perhaps the greatest chances at this juncture.

 

[Valcazar]

That you think his comments weren't moderate doesn't change his voting record and his current positions.

However, I agree completely that he got outsized attention to his real political skill. And yes, the base of the Democratic party is fired up and winning the primary means winning the base, so running as a moderate is going to be tricky for anyone to pull off. Running as "The Moderate" as your brand would be even harder, and I don't think anyone is going to do it explicitly. There will be people who run as "I am able to work with republicans", but they aren't going to run as "I am a moderate/ I am a centrist". Running *against* the party for the nomination when the party is so fired up is idiocy. Sanders was able to do it last time because there had been 8 years of a democratic president. Doing it now will get you pilloried for bashing the party. IF you want to run against the Democratic party as being out of touch you need to do it as a republican or as an independent like Shultz.

 

[Valcazar]

Wow, Schultz's early numbers are even worse than I thought.


Among those who have an opinion, just 4% view him favorably compared to 40% unfavorably — a 10:1 unfavorable to favorable ratio, far higher than any other candidate tested (for comparison, 52% of respondents rate President Trump unfavorably vs. 42% favorably).
Schultz is viewed unfavorably by Democrats (50% unfavorable — 4% favorable), Republicans (43% unfavorable — 4% favorable), and Independents (31% unfavorable — 4% favorable).

 

[Valcazar]

I failed to keep this up, but I should note that Inslee, Buttigeig, Sanders, and O'Rourke are all official now.

Sanders is a known commodity at this point, and has done work t shore up his foreign policy weaknesses. He just isn't the only thing in the field and has a lot of baggage. But given the rules of the Democratic system, the fact he has a core fanatical base might get him in through other people splitting votes.

Buttegeig is really interesting, with one of those "hard to pin down" stories - (Veteran, gay, mayor in Indiana). I don't think he will win, but I think he will be an interesting voice in the debates if he qualifies.

Inslee is running on climate change and not much else, I don't think he will last long.

Beto is going to get a LOT of press up front, and it seems he is making me eat my words about running as "The Moderate" because it really does seem like he is going to position himself in that lane even more than Klobuchar (who is going more for "I can reach across the isle and make deals"). Beto and Biden might end up in a straight up competition for a similar group of voters, with Beto skewing younger and Biden skewing more "fond memories of Obama".

 

[sambuca]

Beto and Biden might end up in a straight up competition for a similar group of voters, with Beto skewing younger and Biden skewing more "fond memories of Obama".

You might be forgetting again those blue collar voters that can flip states in the Great Lakes/Rust Belt region. They're not necessarily voting for Obama II. I don't see Beto appealing to them.

It's hard to say if this group will be key in 2020. It will be interesting.

 

[Valcazar]

Not forgetting them. Beto and Biden are positioning themselves similarly, but competing for non-identical voters in the primary. Both are certainly going to make the pitch they can win some of those voters back in the general, based on their early messaging. You are right that if the drop in that vote was a rejection of Obama's policies and presidency it will hurt Biden and if all the marketing on Beto casts him as the white Obama it will hurt Beto. Given how slim the margins were across that region, trying to predict that kind of fluctuation is extremely difficult.

 

[GaryH]

But Beto is so white and so male! How dare he run for president! Lol.

https://hotair.com/archives/2019/03/15/cnn-mentioned-beto-white-male-52-times-yesterday/

 

[jalimon]

He will be the next democrat president because his name begins with a B.

Bill, Barak, Beto...

 

[cloudsurf]

He will be the next democrat president because his name begins with a B.

Bill, Barak, Beto...

Bobby Kennedy....oops close but no cigar. My bad.
How about Jimmy-Bob Carter.

 

[sambuca]

He will be the next democrat president because his name begins with a B.

Bill, Barak, Beto...

Why won't you mention the Republicans?

Bush Sr., Bill, Bush Jr., Barak, Bozo and then Beto

 

[cloudsurf]

It will pass.
When you are a teen and you do bad or dangerous stuff....you don`t think or worry about the consequences. Your hormones take over and you feel invincible.
You also may have strange fantasies that you soon outgrow....hopefully.
At least half of the population would have faced time in Juvi had they been caught.

 

[Valcazar]

Bernie's rape fantasy essay didn't stick, Trump's previous scamming and sexism didn't stick, I doubt Beto's will stick. It may, if people feel it is off brand, but most people vote by feel not by details.

 

[sambuca]

I agree with cloudsurf and Valcazar.

I don't even think Kamala Harris' relationship with an older superior will hold her back. That's even after you consider these relationships clearly helped her rise in California politics.

I found this in American Greatness and just thought it was funny.

Willie Brown appointed Harris to the state Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board, which paid $97,088 a year. She served six months and Brown then appointed her to the California Medical Assistance Commission, which met only once a month but paid Harris $72,000. Call it “poontronage,” a politician’s appointment of his steady girlfriend, frequent companion, and main squeeze to a lucrative government position requiring little work.