The miserable US$ to C$ exchange rate

[Merlot]

Hello all,

Some think 1.40 is within the realm of possibility.

Ahhhhhh, that's nice. God bless President Obama and his economic advisers in regards to hobbying costs. If he can get crap for a poor rate then bravo to him now.

Sweeeet,

Merlot

 

[CaptRenault]

God bless President Obama and his economic advisers in regards to hobbying costs.

Sorry, Merlot, but the weakness of the Loonie has everything to do with low oil prices and economic conditions in Canada and not Obama's economic policies. The drop in world oil prices (which has had a big negative impact on Canada) has happened in spite of Obama.

A big driving force in the drop in oil prices was the boom in U.S. oil production driven by the technology of fracking. The Obama administration has opposed fracking despite its benefits to the U.S. and world economies.

The only way that Obama might have contributed to a drop in oil prices is by his proposed deal with Iran. The world already has a glut of oil (we are drowning in the stuff!) If Iran is allowed to sell its good-quality, easily exploitable oil freely on world markets, it will help keep the price of oil low and further damage Canadian oil producers and thus the value of the Canadian dollar.

The president's actions can influence exchange rates but we shouldn't give too much credit or assign too much blame to a president when exchange rates fluctuate. The only thing we know for sure about exchange rates is that they will fluctuate in wildly unpredictable ways. For example, here are annual exchange rates for the U.S. dollar and the loonie from 1971-date. We still have a way to go before we equal the good 'ol days (from the American perspective) of 2001-2002.

Value of one $ CDN in $ US 1971-2015*

DATE VALUE

1971-01-01 1.0099
1972-01-01 0.9907
1973-01-01 1.0002
1974-01-01 0.9780
1975-01-01 1.0175
1976-01-01 0.9863
1977-01-01 1.0633
1978-01-01 1.1405
1979-01-01 1.1713
1980-01-01 1.1693
1981-01-01 1.1990
1982-01-01 1.2344
1983-01-01 1.2325
1984-01-01 1.2952
1985-01-01 1.3659
1986-01-01 1.3896
1987-01-01 1.3259
1988-01-01 1.2306
1989-01-01 1.1842
1990-01-01 1.1668
1991-01-01 1.1460
1992-01-01 1.2085
1993-01-01 1.2902
1994-01-01 1.3664
1995-01-01 1.3725
1996-01-01 1.3638
1997-01-01 1.3849
1998-01-01 1.4836
1999-01-01 1.4858
2000-01-01 1.4855
2001-01-01 1.5487
2002-01-01 1.5704
2003-01-01 1.4008
2004-01-01 1.3017
2005-01-01 1.2115
2006-01-01 1.1340
2007-01-01 1.0734
2008-01-01 1.0660
2009-01-01 1.1412
2010-01-01 1.0298
2011-01-01 0.9887
2012-01-01 0.9995
2013-01-01 1.0300
2014-01-01 1.1043
2015-01-01 1.2122
2015-07-01 1.2665

*FRED

 

[Kasey Jones]

Hello all,



Ahhhhhh, that's nice. God bless President Obama and his economic advisers in regards to hobbying costs. If he can get crap for a poor rate then bravo to him now.

Sweeeet,

Merlot

its weird how the us economy always does better under democratic presidents despite their democratic policies...

 

[daydreamer41]

its weird how the us economy always does better under democratic presidents despite their democratic policies...

It's like some baseball players using the juice and some football players deflating footballs. When that easing unwinds ... watch out (aka Greece effect) :nod:

 

[Merlot]

Hello all,

Sorry, Merlot, but the weakness of the Loonie has everything to do with low oil prices and economic conditions in Canada and not Obama's economic policies. The drop in world oil prices (which has had a big negative impact on Canada) has happened in spite of Obama.

My comment was an off-the-cuff quip at how some people love to seize credit for the strangest things, not any level of political-economic assessment.

On the other hand while I have absolutely nothing against oil workers or workers in related industries since they are only doing an honest respectable job, I have no sympathy for oil corporations or any other company where there is or has been evidence of price manipulation. I am sorry about any bad consequences to Canadians and conditions in their economy, but in regard to the exchange rate and this hobby I will have a big smile when I get the opportunity to go back...there's no denying that.

Good luck,

Merlot

 

[Garotalover]

its weird how the us economy always does better under democratic presidents despite their democratic policies..

Did you forget about Jimbo Carter?

 

[CaptRenault]

I have no sympathy for oil corporations or any other company where there is or has been evidence of price manipulation.

So you think the oil companies have "manipulated" the price of oil down from $100+/barrel to $51/barrel? Those damn oil companies!

 

[Merlot]

Hello all,

So you think the oil companies have "manipulated" the price of oil down from $100+/barrel to $51/barrel? Those damn oil companies!

Are you crying for the biggest thieves in history next to government. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

C'mon Captain I know you're not "SHOCKED, SHOCKED I say" that oil companies manipulated every advantage for many $$$billions$$$ more than the natural market when they had the edge until a couple of years ago. In short: FRACK-them.

Cheers,

Merlot

 

[CaptRenault]

I say" that oil companies manipulated every advantage for many $$$billions$$$ more than the natural market when they had the edge until a couple of years ago.

Merlot, take a look at the table in the link below which gives both nominal and inflation adjusted (real) annual prices of a barrel of oil from 1946 to 2014.

Domestic Crude Oil Price (in $/Barrel) Inflation Adjusted to March 2015

When considering prices over a long period, whether the price of a commodity like oil or the hourly price of a Montreal escort, the important price is the inflation adjusted price. As can be seen from the table, the real price of oil has fluctuated wildly (just like exchange rates but not like the price of a Montreal escort*) over the years and the decades. If the oil companies exercised the kind of control over prices that your conspiratorial mindset leads you to believe, then why would the oil companies not have kept the price very high (in real terms) all the time?

in 1980 the inflation adjusted price of oil was $107/barrel. Over the next 20 years the price fluctuated but the overall trend was downward all the way to an inflation adjusted $17/barrel in 1998. Since then the price went back up to an inflation adjusted $100 in 2008 and then back down to $51 today.

What explains these price fluctuations? According to Merlot it is a mysterious group of evil price controlling oil companies who are too dumb and incompetent to act in their own self interest most of the time. If they really had the power that Merlot imagines and were not so incompetent, wouldn't they keep the price of oil at around $100 (inflation adjusted) all the time?

In truth it is the not so mysterious forces of supply and demand that determine the price of oil (well, the concepts of supply and demand do seem mysterious to Merlot). There are so many factors that contribute to the fluctuating supply and demand for oil that it is not possible to discuss them here (and this discussion is already boring enough). Anyone who is interested to learn about those forces right now can do so with a few keystrokes on a computer or smartphone. Here, Let me Google That For You.

_______________

*The relatively stable inflation adjusted hourly price of a Montreal escort (compared to the wildly fluctuating real price of oil) is possible evidence of some kind of price control in the market for Montreal escorts. I do think it's possible there is subtle, informal collusion among mainstream Montreal agencies. There is no price fixing per se. But agencies and indies play a game of follow the leader when setting prices (kind of like airlines do when setting fares). The participants in both markets try to avoid competing on price and they compete mainly on other factors (for escorts those would be lineup, service, options, etc.) Maybe escort agencies should emulate the airlines and other companies and introduce customer loyalty ("frequent flyer") programs as another means of non-price competition.

 

[lgna69xxx]

So i had some US cash that i wanted to turn into CAD funds today......Was out in the west island riding the bike trails and did not want to drive to Calforex downtown (they were giving the best rate of 1.27) so called a few places, RBC and CIBC said you had to have an account there and i dont so checked with BMO and no account needed and they were giving 1.26 so i ventured there. My $465 US brought me a cool $585 CAD so they basically paid me to go to the "Nasty Show" this weekend at Metropolis (2 tickets comes to $104, hey two free drinks too!) BUT, the best part of it was the teller....OMG, drop dead gorgeous, long black hair, a body made for...mmmmmmmmmm and her cleavage was winking at me the whole time and she was personal, friendly, funny and a total bomb. I won't say which branch because all the agency owners around here would be in full recruit mode haha....she would be a STAR! My only problem is i dont have anymore American money so i can go back tomorrow! Soon tho, very soon!

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

My $465 US brought me a cool $585 CAD.

I got 500$ CDN for $388 at the ATM today, a rate of $1.288. Never exchange cash, if you can help it. The ATM wasn't nearly as hot as your teller.

Hope you've discovered the ice cream at Wild Willy's in Pointe-Claire, just off Bord-du-Lac. My friends and I never miss it when we're riding along the lake.

Update: I was just asked where I got 1.288. The answer is: any bank ATM. There are, however, two banks who will try to trick you into letting them do the conversion.

When you use an RBC ATM, they'll ask you if you want them to convert the funds for you. If you say yes, they'll beat you for about 3%. If you say no, the exchange is done somewhere out in space and you'll get the real current rate.

If you use a CIBC, they'll ask you if you want them to charge your account in US or Canadian funds. The correct answer is Canadian. If you say US, they'll do the conversion for you and beat you for some 3%.

I don't know where out there in space the actual converting is done, but the long and short of it is that you don't want the bank or exchange company itself to do the conversion for you.

 

[Lily from Montreal]

It is so going to hurt when I will go for my annual roadtrip this year: Washington and its museums and Virginia beach...
Will have to be good and go easy on restaurants, thank God food and wine are cheap in the States...and it was easy to get rooms with kitchenette...

Anyway I do not care for eating out all the time,that's one of the thing I did not like in Cuba;buffet 3 times a day,too much food cuts my appetite...

Now would be a good time to meet a nice american gentleman who did not bother changing his currency lol

 

[smuler]

Washington and its museums

I'd love to go , as well..

Please pick me up along the roadside..I will be waiting....:wave:


Best Regards

Smuler

 

[Lily from Montreal]

Sorry, I've been warned against hitchhiker,no matter how handsome they are lol

 

[Merlot]

Hello all,

Merlot, take a look at the table in the link below which gives both nominal and inflation adjusted (real) annual prices of a barrel of oil from 1946 to 2014.

I never had any interest in arguing about this. I don't trust oil companies from experience. PERIOD! C'est la vie. La fin sur ce sujet...pour moi.

Now would be a good time to meet a nice american gentleman who did not bother changing his currency lol

HERE I AM!!! There have been a few times when I didn't have enough Canadian money for a tip, YES...I tip to show appreciation. Once back in 2003 when the rate was still 1.5 for American dollars I gave someone $50 for a tip. Damn did she smile HUGE. Now paying the whole amount in American money, which for $200 per hour would give you around and extra $116 for 2 hours on the 1.29 rate I Googled today, well, MAYBE for a hot sweetie like you. MAYBE.

Doux reves ma Cherie,

Merlot

 

[Lily from Montreal]

Well it would only be fair as I did accept american money on par when it was still in sync with the title of this thread which should really be reversed nowadays...

 

[CaptRenault]

It looks like greenbacks will remain strong against the loonie for a while. However, I doubt we will see a return to the $1.50 level that we saw in 2001. Anyway, Americans can take advantage of the $1.30 rate now while reminding themselves that it will inevitably go back down one of these days. Whatever the rate has been over the years, Montreal has always been a relative bargain destination for Americans.

Falling Oil Prices Hurt Canadian Economy:Bank of Canada cuts interest rates again; economy likely shrank in second quarter
July 15, 2015
wsj.com

OTTAWA–Canada’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time in six months, highlighting how severely the oil-price collapse is crimping growth in one of the world’s most energy-dependent advanced economies.
The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark overnight interest rate by .25 percentage points to 0.50% on Wednesday, citing a deeper-than-expected impact of the decline in oil prices and a sluggish recovery in non-energy exports.
The move, which comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling its commitment to raising rates, is a sign of how lower commodity prices stand to reshape such resource-reliant economies from Canada to Norway and Russia. It also drives homes the risks for those economies of coming to rely too heavily on the resource sector for their economic growth.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that, based on the bank’s projection, the economy shrank in the second quarter after a first quarter decline, marking two negative quarters of growth. He said he wouldn’t refer to the downturn as a recession, because that will require more data, time and analysis.

While the U.S. and most other Group of Seven countries stand to benefit from low oil prices because they consume more energy than they sell, Canada is a net energy exporter and relies heavily on the sector, which makes up about 10% of its GDP.

Uncertainty in Greece and slowing economic growth in China have dragged down prices for everything from oil and coal to iron ore and gold. Oil prices, roughly half of what they were last year, are set to fall even further following this week’s deal to lift sanctions on Iran.

The declines have sent ripples through economies that depend heavily on natural resources...

Wednesday’s rate announcement, which sent the loonie close to levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis, marks the second time the Bank of Canada has cut its key interest rate this year. The bank surprised markets in January with a quarter-percentage-point cut to 0.75%, which it called “insurance” against falling oil prices...

 

[IamNY]

For every thousand US dollars I convert I'm getting about $1,300 Canadian give or take depending on the fees. So that means I'm getting an extra hour with an SP and dinner to boot. Love it!

 

[Special K]

So i had some US cash that i wanted to turn into CAD funds today......Was out in the west island riding the bike trails and did not want to drive to Calforex downtown (they were giving the best rate of 1.27) so called a few places, RBC and CIBC said you had to have an account there and i dont so checked with BMO and no account needed and they were giving 1.26 so i ventured there. My $465 US brought me a cool $585 CAD so they basically paid me to go to the "Nasty Show" this weekend at Metropolis (2 tickets comes to $104, hey two free drinks too!) BUT, the best part of it was the teller....OMG, drop dead gorgeous, long black hair, a body made for...mmmmmmmmmm and her cleavage was winking at me the whole time and she was personal, friendly, funny and a total bomb. I won't say which branch because all the agency owners around here would be in full recruit mode haha....she would be a STAR! My only problem is i dont have anymore American money so i can go back tomorrow! Soon tho, very soon!

I've been telling you for years to use an ATM when in Montreal instead of getting gouged at the Exchange places / Banks. Open an account at TD Bank and use the TD Canada ATM's for $0 fees!! Better yet open a Schwab Checking account that has no minimum balances, no monthly fees, no foreign transaction fees and at the end of the month they refund your ATM fees. I use this account whenever I travel abroad and it works perfectly. You can open one online with a minimal deposit or none at all I believe!!

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/banking_lending/checking_account

 

[Numerati]

What SK said. TD and Schwab are awesome.