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daydreamer41

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regnad said:
Interesting last few days. Here's my take on the Yanks and Sox signings of the week:

Womack: A guy who plays below replacement level is an interesting sign. The Yankees don't often sign a guy to a regular role who is not up to major league play. Womack isn't. Can't get on base, can't field. Go figure.

Wright: Wright almost turned one good year, under Leo Mazzone, into 22 million over three. Cashman is smoking crack. Looks now like Wright failed his physical and the Yanks will be able to bail on the deal.

Wells: There has been no sign of deterioration in Wells performance. Wells had a ERA of 3.73 last year. What's interesting about his year is that, while SD's (San Diego, not Satin Dreamz) home park is a pitcher's paradise, he pitched much better on the road than at home. I see this as a fabulous signing. 2.5 million guaranteed, the rest based on number of starts. He starts 30 games, he'll be worth the 7.5 million.

Mantei: Nothing to lose at 750,000 (which I guess is chump change), Epstein has gone to the scrap heap before with little in return.

Halama: I don't understand this. Not a particularly good pitcher for not a lot of money. Mop up lefty?

Renteria: Like Jeter, Renteria is a "Gold Glove" shortstop; like Jeter, Renteria is not a Gold Glove caliber shortstop. He's not a horrible shortstop like Jeter, just slight below average. $10 million clams a year for 4, with Ramirez a year away. I say they trade Renteria after two years at most and eat at least 3 million per year on the balance. While he'll help the team, he's overpriced. I'd rather have Cabrera at the same price. For less, I'd much rather have Cabrera.

Pavano: David Wells is a better pitcher. Curt Schilling is a much better pitcher. Next year, Wells will earn 7.5 (30 or more starts), Pavano 11, Schilling 12.5. Pavano has had exactly ONE season in which he was a better than average pitcher. He was a better pitcher than Wells last year, not a ton better. Better than even money that the Yankees regret this one. (BTW, The Marlins, like the Padres, play in an extreme pitcher's park; like Wells, Pavano pitched better away than home. Go figure.)

HAHAHAHA
what a skewed analysis
Wells is washed up.
Pravano is 29 and at the top of his game.
 

EagerBeaver

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Regna D

If you think Wells at 8 million dollars per year at his age is a better deal than Jaret Wright at 7 million per year you really are smoking crack. You have never in this thread posted an objective analysis yet. If the Yankees had signed Wells you'd be saying it was a horseshit signing and that he has a fragile back and at 41 it's a waste of money. The Red Sox may get as much out of Wells (or less) than the Yankees got out of Kevin Brown last year.To say that the signing of Wells is a "fabulous" move is extraordinarily presumptuous. If he ends up on the DL out of spring training with a bad back the Red Sox will look foolish having given so much money to a 41 year old pitcher with a history of back trouble and not taking care of himself.

The Yankees signed Pavano and Wright and made their staff a whole lot younger whereas the Red Sox have an old and fragile staff. I think the Yankees are looking for guys who are going to be reliable and they have gotten off to a good start.
 
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daydreamer41

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regnad said:
Wells hasn't missed a start since 2001. Before that he hadn't missed a start since 1995. (He also is 30 pounds lighter than when he left NY.) He had his best WHIP last year since 1998. His K/W ratio was his best since 2000 and way ahead of his career norm. There is no indication that he has shown ANY sign of aging.

Wright has had exactly ONE good season. And under Mazzone at that. You want the list of lousy pitchers who have had ONE good season pitching for Mazzone and gone elsewhere to flop? The Yankees are apparently trying to get out of that deal already. (edit: Yankees no longer trying to bail; Wright passed his second physical.)

Pavano has had exactly ONE good season.

Wells has had exactly ONE bad season in the last eight.

There's my objective analysis. Under what analysis is either Wright or Pavano a better signing than Wells? One good year?

You'll also note in my objective analysis that I pan the Renteria and Halama signings. Just because it's the Red Sox doesn't make it good; just because it's the Yankees doesn't make it bad. It's just that Cashman has made some awful moves in the last two years and it goes on. Remember when it came down to game 7, all the Yankees had left was an old man with a bad back. They paid for it.

because Wells is 41. He has ONE season left, if that.
 

EagerBeaver

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An Alternative Analysis

With respect to Pavano, here is a very simple alternative analysis which you have declined to make: he has just come into his prime, has learned how to pitch and is bound to further improve or at least have similar years to last year. You also neglect to point out the trend of improvement in Pavano's stats, and the fact that he dated Alyssa Milano. Therefore toss 2003 and 2002 out the window.

Sandy Koufax was a mediocre pitcher for many years until he got to age 27. With your analysis above you never would have forecasted what he did in 1962-1966. It's called "coming in to his own and developing as a pitcher", a concept you are apparently not familiar with.

If all of what you say is true, explain to the MERB readership why Anaheim, Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle, and your Red Sox all aggressively pursued this high priced right-hander, with Boston using Curt Schilling as chief recruiter due to his friendship with Pavano. I am sure if Boston was successful we would hear some different spin on Pavano, such as his successful start in World Series against the Yankees in 2003 which was arguably the turning point in that series.

I am not saying Pavano is Koufax, he is not and never will be, but he is a Connecticut kid and therefore I have to stick up for him. And the point is, none of us know right now how any of these signings will pan out. Some guys will be busts, some guys will be bargains, and some guys will get hurt and we'll never know.
 
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EagerBeaver

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Interesting Updates

I just read that the Yankees' deal with Jaret Wright is on hold because it is not clear whether he passed or failed his physical on which the deal hinges.

I also read that before the Yankees signed Womack to play second base, Nomar Garciaparra's agent called Brian Cashman about the possibility of Nomar playind second base for the Yankees. The proposal was discussed between Cashman and Derek Jeter and then rejected. It should be noted that the cancerous Garciaparra was not even voted a full World Series share by his former Red Sox teammates.

Regarding the Red Sox and the Renteria/Cabrera controversy, all we heard last year was what a genius Theo Epstein was for trading for Cabrera so as to upgrade the infield defense. And how it turned the Red Sox season around. Now, Cabrera is being dumped in favor of Renteria who has a better bat but worse defensive skills. Please pass me the rolaids!

I have to say that in the playoffs I thought that Cabrera looked extraordinarily undisciplined at the plate and has a long home run swing but not a home run body to go with that swing. Cabrera was an automatic out in the playoffs when he was pitched properly and astutely. I guess with Mark Bellhorn striking out a major league leading 174 times last year, the Red Sox are only going to tolerate so much free swinging from their middle infielders.
 
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EagerBeaver

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regnad said:
His problem isn't swinging at bad pitches so much as too many pitches missing his bat.

I think you meant to say his bat missing too many pitches. I don't think you can blame 174 strikeouts on others.

Bellhorn statistically is an unusual player, but even if he has a high OBA, that number of strikeouts is unacceptable and it hurts the team where he is batting in the order. You can't hit and run with guys like that. I don't like guys who don't make contact. Bellhorn could not play for me. By way of disclosure I am a former coach at the youth level - baseball, softball and basketball.
 
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1918 No More

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Regnad, I 'm glad to see I'm not the only person who appreciates Bellhorn's contributions. Batter strikeouts are the most overrated statistic in baseball. 98% of the time a strikeout is no worse than any other variety of out, yet there is this incredible negative stigma attached to players with high strikeout totals. Bellhorn gets on base at a well above-average clip and has good pop for a 2B. Your citation of his RBI and run totals is spot on. And let's not forget that he popped 17 HR and almost 40 2B. Offer me the chance for my team to have a starting 2B with over 90R, 80 RBI, almost 60 extra base hits, and an on base percentage over .380? Thanks, I'll take two.
 

1918 No More

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Also, I don't understand the obsession with Renteria. Nice player, very nice player in fact, but if you put his monster 2003 in the context of his entire career it appears to be a fluke. No way he is worth almost $10 million per year. And then consider that he'd be blocking Hanley Ramirez, the Sox' top prospect, who may be only a year away. In addition, Hanley has had attitude problems in the past and doesn't therefore seemt to be a good bet to handle a switch to second base gracefully. Let them concentrate their resources elsewhere.
 

EagerBeaver

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The Red Sox' top 2 pitchers are now the 39 year old Schilling, he of the surgically repaired ankle, and the 41 year old Wells, he of the fragile back, beer belly and habitually poor conditioning which up til now has not caught up with him. Anybody out there really think that either of these guys will start more than 25 games each next year?

The Red Sox also fired Dr. Bill Morgan for daring to speak the truth about Schilling's health during the playoffs last year. This is very consistent policy as this organization has lied about the health of its players for many years. What is more important than having a fine physician is a physician who will perpetuate whatever propaganda is spoon fed to him by the organization.

If the Red Sox now let Derek Lowe go, guess what, there ain't too much good starting pitching left on the market except for Randy Johnson. I already see big problems for the Red Sox next year. Bronson Arroyo and Timmy Wakefield are merely adequate 3 and 4 starters. There is no #5 starter at this time. I think there may be enough for second place, again, behind the Yankees, but the wild card might not be a lock this time.

And if Wells and Schilling combine for 50 or more starts, I am a monkey's uncle and I'll stand on my head in the middle of St. Catherine Street, naked.
 
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1918 No More

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Pavano may be a guy just coming into his own. Wright is a terrible signing though. One of many Leo Mazzone resurrections that won't be able to sustain the success once they've left Leo's warm embrace. Wells' performance last year says he's still A-OK. Schilling is a horse, 38 years old or not. Clement or Perez would both be fine as a #3 starter.
 

EagerBeaver

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Although there are some valid points in these articles, neither article mentions that the overall quality of pitching in the major leagues is very poor and therefore you have to take chances on guys, especially with what is available. Personally, I really like Matt Clement and probably would have preferred him to Jaret Wright. I can't figure out why Clement hasn't been a bigger winner than he has been with the stuff that he has and maybe this year we will figure out why. However, Jaret Wright has shown to me in the past the potential to be a big game pitcher. It should not be forgotten that he came up the majors at a very young age and had success early before running into arm problems.

There is also some talk that the Yankees may trade Vazquez and money to the Marlins for A.J. Burnett.

Cashman has made some apparently high percentage moves that have not worked out. The acquisitions of Jeff Weaver, Jose Contreras, and Javier Vazquez were all viewed as terrific trades or signings but none of those guys pitched well in NY. May not all be Cashman's fault. Sometimes guys just can't pitch in NY because the stage is too big and they have stagefright.

On the other hand, the Red Sox pitching is not looking so dominating. Maybe the Yankees will be able to win with Pavano and Wright, simply because nobody else has decent pitching either. With the A's staff in disarray after the Hudson trade, I look around the American League and I do not see any dominant staffs. The only really dominant pitcher in the league last year was Johan Santana. Schilling was consistent, yes, but I think he is a question mark now with the ankle.
 

EagerBeaver

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Uh oh!!!!!!

regnad said:
Red Sox pitching is just fine. Schililng is, of course, a horse and perennial Cy candidate, David Wells is probably the best number 3 this side of Oakland, Wakefield and Arroyo are great back end of the rotation guys, probably number 3 guys on most teams. I expect they'll have no trouble filling in at number 2-3.

Schilling has admitted that he will not be ready by opening day, so the horse is I guess out of the barn. Translation from RedSoxspeak to English: don't expect him back until the All Star break.

Regna D, the amount of bullshit you have readily swallowed is very dangerous and you probably should have a blood test to make sure that you are okay. Because I am worried about the toxins you have been fed by Red Sox management.

If Wells' back goes out in his first start, you got Wakefield and Arroyo to hold the fort. I think Jim Bowie and Davy Crockett had better odds holding the Alamo.
 
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EagerBeaver

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Apparently Regna D is the only person who thinks the Red Sox are not in serious trouble with their pitching. Just saw a report on NESN, of all networks, opining that the Yankees got much stronger and the Red Sox much weaker in the pitching department. There is no self respecting analyst who is picking the Red Sox ahead of the Yankees as things currently stand. I am sorry but the Red Sox rotation of Schilling, Wells, Wakefield, Arroyo plus another starter that they do not yet have (not to mention nobody waiting in the wings should the 39 year old Schilling, the 41 year old Wells or the 39 year old Wakefield break down) is very shaky. On the other hand the Yankees have bodies, and younger bodies.
 

Special K

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Sour?

SL,

Personally I'm not that hurt that Pedro has decided to leave the Red Sox organization. There's no way on earth he's still worth a 4 year, 50+ million dollar salary. At best I would've liked him to remain with the Sox for maybe 2 years.

There's no doubt his exit will be felt by the Sox unless they can use the money that would've gone to him on someone else like an AJ Burnett, Matt Clement or dare we say...Randy Johnson. Ya think he'd like to pitch with Schill again? ;)

As for Pedro's personality, appeal and his attitude, NY can have that!! He lived by his own rules and will do so in the Mets organization also. I'm quite sure you won't see many sad faces in the Boston clubhouse due to Pedro's exit.

Take care,

SL
 

EagerBeaver

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regnad said:
Cashman spends money, Epstein builds champions.

Paying 40 million dollars to Renteria for 4 years, a shortstop with no power and average defense, is not pissing away some cash? Are you kidding?

Regna D, you will lose credibility with the MERB baseball reader when you do not call a spade a spade.
 
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