Ok, I'll bite.
Originally posted by ElfGoneBad
Would anyone like to speculate as far as what would it take for George W to get re-elected?
To begin, it is easier on the incumbent. Starting with the issues:
- Kerry. Hardly an inspiring politician, who appears to the public as another Gore. Enough said.
- Iraq. This has been overplayed at this point pre-campaign. The WMD issue isn't costing Bush as much as it might. This follows from design: the White House, from the beginning, used WMD as a theoretical fiction. This is a looming trap for Kerry. There are far more issues with Iraq. Traditionally, in times of war the incumbent is favored. If it does get too focussed on WMD, all Bush has to say is that the over-range missiles were causus belli and at that time he made the decision, only delaying it due to lack of military preparedness. Bush can display a firm success: the Sultan rotting in American jail. I find the silence from intel suspicious - this tells my instinct that something has happened.
- Economy. The recovery is underway and with three more quarters for results, this one goes to Bush. Democrat harpings on the tax cuts will go badly for Kerry - no Presidential candidate can survive proposing an increase - the American electorate will not tolerate it. The Dem's take on the deficit is a dangerous gamble - one cannot claim proponency to socialist programs and have a conservative (even Libertarian) budgetary outlook.
- Gay marriage. The Dems are investing heavily in this one. It will yield possibly the worst blowout for their campaign. There are several issues beyond the Democrat (and public) radar on this issue. First, marriage isn't a right - it's an entitlement. Bush's stance: If the far Right religious beards want to stop it, fine, go ahead, ammend the Constitution. The Left isn't seeing what is happening at all - Bush has washed his hands of it, as he is powerless in Constitutional matters. In the same vein, Bush gave the beards an incredible no-yuo and they don't even know it. If this one heats up, Bush will point out that he referred the matter to the appropriate source - the people.
- Foreign relations. This will be a Bush asset. The Dems, as with Iraq issues, are at a disadvantage. The action has already been done. Bush can say he acted for America - how will Kerry counter?
The Democrats are doing a very poor job handling political capital. For four years they have been pressing the National Guard service issue. In one stroke, Bush, who could have revealed the records earlier, destroyed what had become an institution to the Dems. This displays the brilliance of the Rove team. Expect similar hidden bombs on other issues - in a certain sense, they are fairly self evident.
The Dems need to take a reality check. The Cold War has been over for 13 years. The political landscape has changed greatly since then. Neoconservatism brings a significant shift to the view of the State: it is no longer driven by the interest of morality but by virtue, not the beard but Liberty. It is this shift to virtue that is directed
outside the State, where it belongs, rather than having the moralistic tendency being applied inwards,
where it is damaging to the citizenry. What is good for Liberty is good for the State. These factors are currently ignored in the policy thought of the Dems, in fact one of chief sources of their enragement with Bush is the fact that his neoconservative approach results in preventing ideology from entering policy, an anathema, as socialism by definition requires the opposite - that ideology becomes policy.
In short, the Left needs their rabble back. From this arises a new revelation, the elitism that was always found buried deep with their movement, yet hardly ever discussed. The Dean campaign reeked of this elitism, his staunch supporters and vanguard all pointing to this saviour. What the squeegy kids, disaffected academics, anti war protesters, trade meeting rioters and EU bureaucrat imitators overlooked was that mainstream America has a traditionally dim view of such activist elitism. Joe Sixpack is now a Republican and that trend has been going on since the sixties.
The Dem's battlecry: Anyone who can oust Bush - Bush must be removed at all cost.
Just who exactly, and why?