The Road To The NCAA Final Four....& March Madness!

[EagerBeaver]

Hey College Hoops Fans! It's NCAA tournament time! Time to fill in the brackets and get the office pools going.

Very interesting story in the local papers today. It seems that the 34 year old coach of Albany is predicting that the #16 seed in the Washington DC regional, Albany, will become the first #16 seed to win a game in NCAA tournament history when they stun #1 UConn Friday night. He has been quoted as saying he believes Albany can beat anyone, and one of the Albany starting guards has also been quoted as saying that Albany will win against UConn.

The Albany coach was also quoted as saying that he has dispatched not one, but two assistant coaches to scout the Kentucky-UAB game in anticipation of playing the winner of that game in the second round of the NCAA tournament.

I have read some scouting reports (I have more info and scouting on college hoops than any of you care to know) which suggest that Albany is a very strong #16 seed, although they play in the weak American East conference. They have quick guards and a 7'1" center from Germany, as well as a 6'8" power forward, giving them some size to matchup with UConn.

I know there are more than a few upstate New York guys who post here. Would any of you like to put your money where the Albany coach's mouth is? Not on points being given - money on Albany to win the game?

Any takers?

 

[EagerBeaver]

btyger,

I buy dinner at Queue de Cheval if Albany wins against you buy me a souvlaki sandwich at Kojax if UConn wins. How's them odds?

 

[EagerBeaver]

Eb i know that you are just putting this here for friendly little wagers because this is a straight up bet nobody in their right mind would make.

Daringly,

This is hardly a straight up bet! Dinner for two at Queue de Cheval might run $150-$200 while a Souvlaki sandwich at Kojax, even with extra tzaziki sauce as I like, is only gonna cost about $5! Those are great odds!

 

[spin]

I'll take your action on the Albany vs Uconn game EagerBeaver if no one else does.

I agree that BC is a team to watch, and don't forget UCLA and Florida - I think J.J. will silence all of the Duke haters this year, Blue Devils beat Uconn in the final.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Spin,

I was wondering if anyone would take a bite on this offer! It'sa very low exposure bet, having to buy a Kojax souvlaki for $5 as opposed to potentially enjoying a regal dinner at the Q.

The Albany coach's rather bold prediction that Albany would become the first #16 seed to win a game in the NCAA tourney led me to think about the top 3 sports "guarantees" of all time. Although this is a bit off track, one of those top 3 guarantees does involve the NCAA tournament and UConn, so here goes:

TOP 3 SPORTS GUARANTEES OF ALL TIME

1. JOE NAMATH GUARANTEES VICTORY IN SUPER BOWL III. The Jets, champions of the underling AFL, were 19 point underdogs to the NFL powerhouse Baltimore Colts. Speaking to the national media prior to the game, Namath, who was asked how the Jets could possibly compete with the Colts, said "I guarantee you we will win this game." Jets go on to win 16-7 and Namath is named Super Bowl MVP.

2. KHALID EL AMIN PREDICTS THAT UCONN "WILL SHOCK THE WORLD" IN 1999 NCAA FINAL. UConn entered the 1999 championship game as a 10 point underdog against a powerhouse Duke team that featured 5 starters who would all go on to become NBA 1st round draft picks. UConn's team had only one player that would be drafted in the first round (Richard "Rip" Hamilton). On live international television, as UConn came out of the locker room prior to the game, UConn starting point guard Khalid El Amin approached the CBS cameraman and exclaimed, "We are going to shock the world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" El Amin would later score 2 key late baskets and hit the free throws that sealed a stunning 77-74 UConn victory. After the game T Shirts are sold all over Connecticut which state: "We Shocked The World!"

3. MARK MESSIER GUARANTEES THAT THE RANGERS WILL BEAT THE DEVILS IN 1994 STANLEY CUP SEMIFINALS. Down 3 games to 2 against an outstanding Devils team, Mark Messier guarantees that the Rangers will win. He proceeds to score a hat trick in game 6 and then makes critical play after critical play as the Rangers win game 7 on their way to their only Stanley Cup since 1940.

 

[spin]

The Albany coach's rather bold prediction that Albany would become the first #16 seed to win a game in the NCAA tourney

EagerBeaver, I was listening to ESPN radio driving home on Sunday and heard that same Albany coach say he HOPED he got in as a #15 seed because he thought they matched up well against Gonzaga (#2 seed) and had a good shot at scoring 90 against them.

I guess everyone's drinking the Kool-Aid in Albany.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Spin,

The Albany Coach is a 34 year old guy who probably suffers from giddiness and excessive jubilation as this is the first time Albany has even played in the NCAA tournament. His team is not exactly "tournament tested."

That being said, if his prediction of an upset of UConn comes true, he surpasses Namath and goes straight to #1 on my above noted list of the greatest sports guarantees of all time.

 

[eastender]

You're On!

btyger,

I buy dinner at Queue de Cheval if Albany wins against you buy me a souvlaki sandwich at Kojax if UConn wins. How's them odds?

I'll take your bet.Would even upgrade to the original Arachova on St.Viateur
instead of Kojax and throw in a dozen bagels across the street.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Eastender,

Very kind of you to upgrade the bet. Upgrade is accepted!

 

[eastender]

See you

Eastender,

Very kind of you to upgrade the bet. Upgrade is accepted!

Then we have a bet Queue de Cheval against original Arachova plus 1 dozen bagels.

 

[EagerBeaver]

NCAA Basketball Tournament Now Called Greatest Sporting Event in America

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/tim_layden/03/15/five.out/index.html

 

[HonestAbe]

Gonzaga (#2 seed)

I guess everyone's drinking the Kool-Aid in Albany.

Always good to see some roundball fans caught up in the "Madness".

Speaking of madness, I think the tournament selection committee is as you put it Spin, "drinking the Kool-aid." Gonzaga is actually a #3 seed! Despite having the best player in the country in Adam Morrison, no disrepect to JJ but Adam is 6'8" and that four inch difference with Reddick means he can create his own shot anytime he wants versus needing to have an open look at the basket. In addition to Morrison, Gonzaga has JP Batista one of the premier power forwards in the country, and a surrounding team that always does what needs to be done to get the W.

Gonzaga has the nations second longest winning streak currently at 18 games and have won 39 games in a row at home! They finished the season 27-3 and won their tournament. The week they won their tournament they were ranked 4th in the nation. The week after that UConn and Villanova were both knocked out of the Big East tournament (UConn by Syracuse, a much lower ranked opponent who were thought to be NIT bound). Duke lost TWICE in one week before squeaking out of their tournament with the ACC title.

So to recap quickly, UConn, Villanova, and Duke, who were the 3 teams ranked higher than Gonzaga all lost that week while Gonzaga won out. What happened you ask? Gonzaga got a #3 seed and the other 3 all got #1 seeds. Absolutely freakin absurd, but thats the NCAA's for you. No rhyme or reason needed for that madness.

 

[HonestAbe]

If you thought that was bad did you hear about Hofstra?

Hofstra, although admittedly not known for being a roundball powerhouse had an amazing year at 24-6! They beat rival George Mason TWICE IN ONE WEEK. George Mason, despite losing TWICE IN ONE WEEK to Hofstra, despite finishing with fewer wins than Hofstra and more losses than Hofstra got a #11 seed in the tournament while Hofstra was ignored and sent to the NIT.
Un-freakin-believable right? Right?

Well here comes the rub, get this, are you ready? George Masons' Athletic Director(an employee of George Mason) is a member of the NCAA tournament selection committee!!!!! WELLLLLL that explains alot now doesn't it?

I've got one word for the selection committee, BULLSHIT.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Honest Abe,

Gonzaga probably deserved a #2 seed, but let's not forget that they play a schedule that is decidedly weaker than any of the #1 seeds except Memphis, and that 19 game win streak was mostly against conference opponents who do not stack up to the Big East or ACC. Also, did you forget that UConn defeated Gonzaga earlier this season on a neutral court, at a time when UConn was without its starting point guard Marcus Williams?

The NCAA is not going to ignore the fact that UConn and Villanova shared the Big East regular season title and Duke won the ACC title. Those are the strongest conferences in the country. And if we run with your implied argument that teams that are red hot late should be rewarded, then UCLA should have gotten a #1 seed because they won their conference tourney with all blowout wins. Problem is I believe Memphis beat UCLA head to head earlier this season.

What I don't understand was Seton Hall getting in and Cincinnati being left out. There was no justification for that. The NCAA is supposed to punish teams for bad losses. Well, Seton Hall lost to Duke by 53 and at home to UConn by 42. Losses don't get any worse than that. Cincinnati was very competitive in their loss to UConn.

 

[The Dirty One]

Potential Upset

Take this for what it's worth (heard this on ESPN radio), but word is when they put the LSU-Iona game on the board in Vegas, the so-called "insiders" went wild and ran to the windows to lay money on Iona. May know something we don't...

Line: LSU +7.5

 

[spin]

Any Upsets???

We have a few hours before the tournement gets underway, anyone want to stick their necks out and call a major upset?

I'll start with Xavier over Gonzaga.

 

[EagerBeaver]

FML2,

What I said was that Memphis had a fairly easy regular season schedule. I never said their bracket was easy.

Since I understand some Canadian guys don't follow the regular season: Duke, UConn, and Villanova play in the so called "power conferences." Memphis does not play in a power conference, nor does Gonzaga, and they cakewalked over the competition in those conferences. So it can be argued that UConn, Duke and Nova were more battle tested in conference.

To their credit, both Memphis and Gonzaga played reasonably tough nonconference schedules. Memphis had a close loss to Duke and Gonzaga had a close loss to UConn when UConn was short one starter.

 

[HonestAbe]

The problem with the ranking system and the tournament selection system is that both rely too heavily on what conference teams play in. This gives teams who play in the ACC and Big East an unfair advantage every year because their RPI is automatically going to be better than teams from other conferences simply because of who they play, no matter if they are really that good or not.

It rewards teams for playing "names" like Duke and UConn, or teams in the Big East and ACC. Not to say that those conferences don't have plenty of good teams most years but the process is so jaded that it almost automatically guarantees Duke and UConn a #1 seed whether they deserve it or not. Again, I'm not saying that those two teams aren't excellent most years but they don't necessarily deserve a #1 seed every single year.

In the case of Gonzaga they have had an excellent program for about a decade and their performance this year warranted at least a #2 seed but despite going 27-3(thats a .900 winning percentage), and they were hot all year, not just at the end, they ended up a #3 and the ONLY reason given for that by anyone is that they played a supposedly "inferior" schedule to teams like Duke and UConn. The problem with that is that how tough a schedule is considered to be is based on how highly your opponents are ranked and rankings are nothing more than opinions of a small group of coaches and sports writers who consistently, year after year, make some good picks and make some bad picks.

Certainly Duke and UConn deserve high seeds but the bias some years is blatantly in their favor and it ultimately ends up screwing some more deserving teams out of a better ranking. It usually works out in the end though because undeserving #1 seeds usually lose before the final four, as a matter of fact we have seen some years where only one of them makes it that far. I suspect this is one of those years. I predict neither Duke or Villanova will make the Final Four and UConn is probably 50/50. My best bet is Memphis to make it that far and they are the only one of the #1 seeds who I think has a shot at the title.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Gonzaga

Abe,

I understand your point of view, although as I write this Gonzaga is in a bit of trouble and trails Xavier by 5.

I am a diehard UConn fan, but I am first and foremost a basketball fan and have tremendous respect for the way Gonzaga plays. They are the most fundamentally sound team in the country. In 1999 when UConn won their first national championship, the toughest game they had in the NCAA tourney that year was not Duke in the finals, but Gonzaga who they beat in the western regional final. That game was very close until the end, UConn won by 5 and after the game the Gonzaga players were quoted as saying UConn "crashed extra hard on the boards the last few minutes", which is what beat them.

That's how UConn wins, by the ways. They are not the prettiest team to watch in their halfcourt offense. They beat teams on the boards and with defense and shotblocking.

Gonzaga wins with great fundamental offense. They traditionally have not been a great defensive team, but they are a nightmare to defend, even for a team like UConn with superior athletic ability.

There is no doubt Gonzaga is the premiere "mid major" program in the USA but they must go out and win tonight to justify the argument that they should have been seeded higher.

 

[HonestAbe]

Good point

I mostly agree with that assessment EB,

...but that also means that in order for the #1 seeds to justify their placement in the tourney they should have to make it to the Final Four. Of course we both know that it rarely ever happens that all four #1 seeds make it to the Final Four. Anyone can have a bad game as Gonzaga is having right now, its all about consistency, which is the basis given by most coaches and sports writers for the consistent high rankings of teams like Duke.

However consistency should be rewarded for all teams not just the "perrenial" programs. I'm not saying the selection committee has an easy job, quite the contrary, but its disheartening and bad for the image of the sport when we see blatant favoritism and shenanigans like the aforementioned Hofstra/George Mason debacle.

Would it really be that big a deal if Duke or UConn got a #2 or #3 seed, would it be "unfair" if a team like George Wahington who lost one game all year got a #1 seed despite their supposedly inferior schedule? If Duke or UConn are the best team they will win right? Same goes for anyone else right?

So why the seeming short list of teams who can actually get a #1 seed? Why does Duke seemingly start out every year at #1 in the rankings? It seems that this is the best way to guarantee that they will not fall too far in the rankings when they have an off year so they are guaranteed to be in the big dance every year while a team like Hofstra can go 24-6 and be left out altogether! If it wasn't for the Automatic berths of some conferences no one would get in to the tournament from any of the small or mid major schools.

Sad truth is that Duke and UConn bring in the big money and the NCAA's are every bit about money as much as they are about the game. To solve this problem why not have an elite Div I league consisting only of teams who play in the ACC and Big East with a few selected others. Pay those players a good wage and give them a free education while they are at it. Have all the games be pay per view and market it as a "springboard" to the NBA with certain colleges acting as farm systems for certain Franchises. This way the NBA could draft these guys out of high school and send them to their "farm school" to develop without having to risk tens of millions of dollars on unproven teenagers. The rest of the insignificant colleges could just play good old fashioned uncorrupted basketball. Just an idea.