Global Recession and the Escort Industry
- Thread starter kill_shill
- Start date
EagerBeaver said:
I think in all honesty you should leave it as is and try and keep buying more on a monthly basis.
Its too late for radical moves cause if it doesnt go into deprression style it would hurt as much as if it did.
I think the key is the potential to earn money and save during the next 20 years, this will in the end save you.
For those in retirement phase and with a portfolio greater then 50% equity, GOD help you as you might be forced to work again.
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a contrarian view from an HDH
Very interesting thread. Two things I'd like to add to it:
1. My financial guy called and is encouraging me to buy the banks, now offering healthy dividends while one waits for the prices to recover. We'll see.
2. There's an HDH I see in Toronto. I mentioned to her last week that this economy might impact her business. She smiled and said "times like these full the bars, and my dance card". She said a lot of guys won't buy the new car, but will console themselves by sleeping with a gorgeous woman. It's way cheaper.
Very interesting thread. Two things I'd like to add to it:
1. My financial guy called and is encouraging me to buy the banks, now offering healthy dividends while one waits for the prices to recover. We'll see.
2. There's an HDH I see in Toronto. I mentioned to her last week that this economy might impact her business. She smiled and said "times like these full the bars, and my dance card". She said a lot of guys won't buy the new car, but will console themselves by sleeping with a gorgeous woman. It's way cheaper.
Davo said:
1. Bank of Amercia slashed its dividend today by 50% its considered the few remaining power house banks. Others may soon follow. It is no longer about making a profit, but surviving and not going bankrupt.
2. HDH in toronto still have not felt the impact of a great depression era, should it all materialize we will see a very different attitude in the next few years. Lets hope she saved her money.
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Well there you have it!
With so many financial models out there who can really say what is, was, or what will be best. Kill Shill paints a grim picture. Could 1929 happen again? Could it be worse? Feels like it, doesn't it? But who knows. I don't think so. If you are very concerned, with 15 years to go, you could move a certain percentage to guaranteed investments as well. It seems like there will be tons of buying opportunities in the stock market whenever the dust starts to settle.
BD
With so many financial models out there who can really say what is, was, or what will be best. Kill Shill paints a grim picture. Could 1929 happen again? Could it be worse? Feels like it, doesn't it? But who knows. I don't think so. If you are very concerned, with 15 years to go, you could move a certain percentage to guaranteed investments as well. It seems like there will be tons of buying opportunities in the stock market whenever the dust starts to settle.
BD
Ben Dover said:
Ben Dover if one can continue to earn income and save, one should be fine as the dollar cost averaging will help you during an depression like era.
It is the onse who are already in retiremnt phase and have been living on the hefty returns of there 60% to 80% equity portfolio which will suffer. There are many in this situation as they had fled to stocks when interest rates where hovering at there all time lows.
Who are you referring to when you say " You" mass ?
You will note that I said that the lead posting came from another poster (NOT ME ) , an American, at another sight; they are not my comments. So firstly, YOU need to get your understanding straight.
The post reminded me of a discussion that a friend and I had concerning the potential impact of the recession and to what extent that it may effect the Escort Industry.
So first I think it important that you understand this and the context of the purpose of MY post.
This is not intended to get down to a nitty gritty discussion of economics in lieu of an academic program in economics, which I coincidentally have personally have already been through, but rather prompt discussion on the impact that the financial crisis is having and likely to have on all of us, with respect to the Escort's and the industry.
By the way, when the poster was referring to " printing " dollars, he is not referring to a " physical " printing of dollars in circulation and that would be generally understood. For instance do you think that the U.S. will actually run the printing presses with $700 B of actual paper currency with respect to the well publicized and discussed Financial bail out ? (Strictly a rhetorical question, please do not answer or let this bog down into a discussion of micro or macrorconomics.)
Now if it is your opinion that there is no financial crisis or that many, or you or your business , will or will not be impacted, and/or that the Escort Industry will / will not be impacted and that you would like to comment upon that, this was the intention of this post i.e. A discussion of the extent of likely impact on the Escort Industry, the implications, potential responses to help minimize the impact, etc.
You will note that I said that the lead posting came from another poster (NOT ME ) , an American, at another sight; they are not my comments. So firstly, YOU need to get your understanding straight.
The post reminded me of a discussion that a friend and I had concerning the potential impact of the recession and to what extent that it may effect the Escort Industry.
So first I think it important that you understand this and the context of the purpose of MY post.
This is not intended to get down to a nitty gritty discussion of economics in lieu of an academic program in economics, which I coincidentally have personally have already been through, but rather prompt discussion on the impact that the financial crisis is having and likely to have on all of us, with respect to the Escort's and the industry.
By the way, when the poster was referring to " printing " dollars, he is not referring to a " physical " printing of dollars in circulation and that would be generally understood. For instance do you think that the U.S. will actually run the printing presses with $700 B of actual paper currency with respect to the well publicized and discussed Financial bail out ? (Strictly a rhetorical question, please do not answer or let this bog down into a discussion of micro or macrorconomics.)
Now if it is your opinion that there is no financial crisis or that many, or you or your business , will or will not be impacted, and/or that the Escort Industry will / will not be impacted and that you would like to comment upon that, this was the intention of this post i.e. A discussion of the extent of likely impact on the Escort Industry, the implications, potential responses to help minimize the impact, etc.
gwhiz,
There is another, parallel thread on this exact same topic. Can the Mods merge the threads?
https://merb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=40977
There is another, parallel thread on this exact same topic. Can the Mods merge the threads?
https://merb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=40977
Investment is not really that complicated. Here is what I do. I am 40 years old.
1. You have to decide how much you want to allocate in stocks, bonds and precious metals. My allocation was:
40% stocks (Index funds only)
10% non-US stocks (indexed non-US funds)
10% real estate
30% bonds (tax exempt + inflation linked)
10% other (Gold back securities+Value funds+Money market)
2. Only choose index funds for stocks (your selection is up to you-- try total market, S&P 500 and Russel 2000 small stock)
3. Stick to your allocation no matter what. When stocks go down, automatically, your stock allocation will shrink from 40% to a lower number. You add your money to stocks this way you are buying low. When stocks go high, your bond allocation will shrink and you will buy bonds when market is doing good and bonds can be had for a bargain price.
The benefits of this strategy are as follows.
1. Since you are invested in index funds, you don't have to worry about fund manager making mistakes and you loose money.
2. You don't have to worry about market timing.
3. You don't chase the hottest trend, whether it is buy or sell.
4. You make money somewhere regardless of whether the market goes up or down.
5. Index funds and tax exempt bond portfolio is tax efficient.
All a person has to decide is his/her allocation for his/her risk tolerence. After that it is really simple.
1. You have to decide how much you want to allocate in stocks, bonds and precious metals. My allocation was:
40% stocks (Index funds only)
10% non-US stocks (indexed non-US funds)
10% real estate
30% bonds (tax exempt + inflation linked)
10% other (Gold back securities+Value funds+Money market)
2. Only choose index funds for stocks (your selection is up to you-- try total market, S&P 500 and Russel 2000 small stock)
3. Stick to your allocation no matter what. When stocks go down, automatically, your stock allocation will shrink from 40% to a lower number. You add your money to stocks this way you are buying low. When stocks go high, your bond allocation will shrink and you will buy bonds when market is doing good and bonds can be had for a bargain price.
The benefits of this strategy are as follows.
1. Since you are invested in index funds, you don't have to worry about fund manager making mistakes and you loose money.
2. You don't have to worry about market timing.
3. You don't chase the hottest trend, whether it is buy or sell.
4. You make money somewhere regardless of whether the market goes up or down.
5. Index funds and tax exempt bond portfolio is tax efficient.
All a person has to decide is his/her allocation for his/her risk tolerence. After that it is really simple.
I just now noticed this Eager Beaver; thank you. I was about to make the same request. Kill shill`s lead in was intended to promote exactly the same type of discussion.
https://merb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=40977uest.
https://merb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=40977uest.
EB
I think it would be a mistake to sell and liquidate now, the chaos thats happened the last few days is from panic selling and liquidations.
I would wait for a relief rally and sell some of the stocks into it to lighten up your risk profile.....the market is waiting for the catalyst and when it comes you will have a 10% type up day....with volume..I think the catalyst will be co-ordinated rate cuts by the central banks of the world.
Dont panic....if its 401k its long term....
Stick with your game plan....
Banger
I think it would be a mistake to sell and liquidate now, the chaos thats happened the last few days is from panic selling and liquidations.
I would wait for a relief rally and sell some of the stocks into it to lighten up your risk profile.....the market is waiting for the catalyst and when it comes you will have a 10% type up day....with volume..I think the catalyst will be co-ordinated rate cuts by the central banks of the world.
Dont panic....if its 401k its long term....
Stick with your game plan....
Banger
Banger,
That is the advice I am getting from my financial guy, but my IRAs are in freefall. It's like watching someone bleed to death before my very eyes, except I am seeing it on paper. My instinctive reaction is to stop the bleeding. Just like when you cut yourself shaving, your reaction is to put something on the wound. Pulling money out of our respective IRAs is something I had serious conversation with with one of my work colleagues in the past few days. He is in a different situation - 3 kids in high school and he needs to pay their college educations. Evidently he set up some kind of mutual funds account for one of them and it has tanked severely and he is wondering how he will send that kid to college.
Fortunately in my case I only have to worry about me. But me does not want to work until he has one foot in the grave at 80. I know a few guys who have practiced law into their 80s, mainly out of boredom with doing anything else, and they are nice guys but should have retired long ago. I don't want to be like that. I want to use my retirement money to go and travel in Europe when I get old.
That is the advice I am getting from my financial guy, but my IRAs are in freefall. It's like watching someone bleed to death before my very eyes, except I am seeing it on paper. My instinctive reaction is to stop the bleeding. Just like when you cut yourself shaving, your reaction is to put something on the wound. Pulling money out of our respective IRAs is something I had serious conversation with with one of my work colleagues in the past few days. He is in a different situation - 3 kids in high school and he needs to pay their college educations. Evidently he set up some kind of mutual funds account for one of them and it has tanked severely and he is wondering how he will send that kid to college.
Fortunately in my case I only have to worry about me. But me does not want to work until he has one foot in the grave at 80. I know a few guys who have practiced law into their 80s, mainly out of boredom with doing anything else, and they are nice guys but should have retired long ago. I don't want to be like that. I want to use my retirement money to go and travel in Europe when I get old.
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EB,
I am not a certified financial planner but I dont think your guy gave you good advice about the down 10% rule....I would have adviced you to lower your risk profile by re-allocating to other conservative funds within the Vangard funds or sell parts of the porfiolio and put it in money market or treasury funds. Just because it goes down 10% and its a 401K doesnt mean you shouldnt manage the risk allocation when the capital is decreasing...
The point im making is that right now even the best stocks are getting hit....thats usually a sign that were near a market bottom or at least a short term "capitulation"
....sorry....i couldnt resist! lol
My advice is to take down your risk, but do it gradually and wait for rallies to sell...
even if the market goes down another 20-30% if your in a well diversifed funds...in 10 yrs= 15 years time when you need the money, you'll probably be okay....
Right now the professionals and retail traders are getting de-leveraged and must raise cash, that is part of whats caused this selling frenzy..... but you have a longer horizon, you dont have to liquidate right now....
pick your times to sell and lower your risk profile by getting into more conservative funds...
Hope this helps...Good luck!
Banger
I am not a certified financial planner but I dont think your guy gave you good advice about the down 10% rule....I would have adviced you to lower your risk profile by re-allocating to other conservative funds within the Vangard funds or sell parts of the porfiolio and put it in money market or treasury funds. Just because it goes down 10% and its a 401K doesnt mean you shouldnt manage the risk allocation when the capital is decreasing...
The point im making is that right now even the best stocks are getting hit....thats usually a sign that were near a market bottom or at least a short term "capitulation"
....sorry....i couldnt resist! lolMy advice is to take down your risk, but do it gradually and wait for rallies to sell...
even if the market goes down another 20-30% if your in a well diversifed funds...in 10 yrs= 15 years time when you need the money, you'll probably be okay....
Right now the professionals and retail traders are getting de-leveraged and must raise cash, that is part of whats caused this selling frenzy..... but you have a longer horizon, you dont have to liquidate right now....
pick your times to sell and lower your risk profile by getting into more conservative funds...
Hope this helps...Good luck!
Banger
Banger,
I think you misunderstood my prior post. I had asked my advisor if I should liquidate and pay the 10% early withdrawal penalty. He told me no, it's a panic move. Since that conversation my portfolio dropped over 10%. Meaning if I had rejected his advice and cashed out, I would have had more money in pocket then, than I do on paper now.
I think you misunderstood my prior post. I had asked my advisor if I should liquidate and pay the 10% early withdrawal penalty. He told me no, it's a panic move. Since that conversation my portfolio dropped over 10%. Meaning if I had rejected his advice and cashed out, I would have had more money in pocket then, than I do on paper now.
EB,EagerBeaver said:
Why pay the 10% withdraw penalty??? cant u just move the money from one vangard fund to another...like a treasury bond fund that pays a rate??? that way you dont have to pay 10% withdraw and you dont have exposure to equity market risk...
His account is with Vangard not Lehman Brothers....mass1965 said:
I think 401 K's are SPIC insured....that is it insures the assets in the account at the market value
The only way Vangard is gonna go under is if everyone takes all their money out....
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banger said:
It's an IRA, you can't withdraw until age 59.5 without paying a 10% early withdrawal penalty per the IRC. I have already rolled it over.
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