Will the Economy bubble explode soon?

[jalimon]

First time since 2008 the fed lowered interest rate. America Inc. is in more debt then 2008. For those who are in finance here do not answer like you would do to a client tell us the real shit, are we on the verge of a huge correction like it happens every 10 years or so?

cheers,

p.s. oups we cannot edit post subject... there is an extra “will” in there

 

[Bred Sob]

oups we cannot edit post subject... there is an extra “will” in there

https://merb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?168005-How-To-Edit-Thread-Title

 

[jalimon]

Merci Bred!

Now some answer to the question. I will monitor this thread for 9 months to see who got it right, wrong or neutral.

cheers,

 

[Sol Tee Nutz]

First, you monitor who got it right or wrong, according to you I guess.
The economy bubble already has begun to burst in Canada, Canada now has the extreme privilege of being the country with the highest homeless increase. Major corporations are staying away due to our new Liberal policies. People in Canada now have less money to spend than in the recent past. Guaranteed that our children and their children will be paying dearly for Trudeau's fuck ups for decades to come. Trying to shut down Alberta is costing the government billions a year. If the POS ruining Canada gets one more term you will not recognize Canada anymore, you will see a divided Canada.
And to those who ripped Trump and said the US would be in trouble, they are firing on all cylinders now, Canada was riding on their coat tails but it is about to come to an end unless we do something fast, the Liberals are slowly killing the economy.

 

[Albacor]

Bear in mind that USA is the locomotive of the world, if it slows down, the whole world will follow; if it bursts, every continents will do the same! also Trump has lots of friends in the finance world, they will not let it happens, at least not during his term. because it will damage his reputation! so my guess is it might happens in 2020... who knows?

 

[jalimon]

Albacor you are correct the USA is still definitely the locomotive of the world.

Albacor/STN if you look at past bubble (2000 and 2008 for instance) politics did not play a role.

What worries me now is the 10 years of constant positive economy... But at a cost as companies have never been so debt driven in history.

Which lead to my question. Will it tank and if so when?

Cheers,

 

[EagerBeaver]

Jalimon the 2008 economic downturn was due to the subprime mortgage lending crisis which was politically connected to the complete lack of regulation in the mortgage and banking industries, resulting in subprime lending to persons who had awful credit and couldn’t even make a single payment on their mortgage. I was front and center in dealing with the fallout from this crisis and from 2008-2010 it formed a huge part of what I did during that time period. At the risk of oversimplification it was a combination of greed and lack of regulatory oversight. You should educate yourself by seeing the 2 major films that dealt with the crisis, The Big Short on the financing side and 99 Homes on the legal/foreclosure side. Both movies are excellent and depict the reasons for the fallout.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/99_Homes

The films are unintended companion pieces. See Big Short first and 99 Homes second.

 

[jalimon]

EB I have seen the movie. Excellent by the way!

I still say it was not politically related because it would have happened whatever party was in office.

So 2000 was the Internet bubble. 2008 the subprime bubble. Could 2019/2020 be the Debt bubble? I have no clue that's why I am asking (and also because I have investment to make ).

Cheers,

 

[Albacor]

Albacor you are correct the USA is still definitely the locomotive of the world.

Albacor/STN if you look at past bubble (2000 and 2008 for instance) politics did not play a role.


Cheers,

Jalimon: In theory, yes politics should not play a role, but the reality is totally different! The big shots in the finance world in NYC (or Washington) still can pull the strings: Just to give you an example : I want the price of oil to raise, I will release an intel info that the USA oil stock is low, or will start a war with Iran! Boom ! the price of oil will raise! I want the Dow Jones stock exchange to raise, I will release info that unemployment rate is low! I want the Dow Jones market to low, I will release info that I will put more tariffs on China imports! Boom ! you see? everything can be manipulated...

 

[Sol Tee Nutz]

Albacor/STN if you look at past bubble (2000 and 2008 for instance) politics did not play a role.

I am talking the Canadian bubble will burst and it will be due to politics, billions from Canada is lost already and it will increase.

 

[Albacor]

EB I have seen the movie. Excellent by the way!

(and also because I have investment to make ).

Cheers,

Jalimon: The sure investment you can make is in SPs, you invest into your enjoyment, your pleasure; so there is no price attached to it, and no loss ! :yo:

 

[jalimon]

Jalimon: The sure investment you can make is in SPs, you invest into your enjoyment, your pleasure; so there is no price attached to it, and no loss ! :yo:

By god I already invest enough in that area I need to diversify my wallet so to make sure I can continue in the future

So what's you take on the next correction?? 1 month, 3 months... 6 months... Not at all?

Cheers,

 

[minutemenX]

The Dow is sharply down because China dropped the yuan exchange rate. China dropped the exchange rate to counteract the increase in tariffs threatens by Tramp. Tramp motive is to artificially slow down economy so he can look like a savior when it comes back after the huge trade deal with China right before the election. Talk about connection of the politics and economy.

 

[Fradi]

I think MinutemenX got it right.
It is unfortunate that one man can manipulate the stock market like this.
Now why can’t I do that lol, wouldn’t have to worry about escort rates.

 

[jalimon]

These are only minor political stuff. Not a big correction or collapse like 2000 or 2008.

The current debt of america inc is 15500 billions. 74% of gross interior products. Higher then it has ever been. How much longer can us economy lives debt driven?

Cheers,

 

[minutemenX]

These are only minor political stuff. Not a big correction or collapse like 2000 or 2008.

The current debt of america inc is 15500 billions. 74% of gross interior products. Higher then it has ever been. How much longer can us economy lives debt driven?

Cheers,

Indefinitely, as long as the US is in charge of the printing press of the dominant global currency. Thus why we see the war against bitcoin and the strong reaction to any attempt of other major countries to trade in local currencies

 

[minutemenX]

For our French-speaking friends. We are doomed anyway:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/...nt-n-est-pas-un-accident-de-parcours-20190802

 

[Valcazar]

Jailmom, trying to figure out your numbers. It looks like you put debt when you meant defecit for the 15500 billions. Not sure at all what the . 74% of gross interior products.

I'm not sure what you are worried about since I'm not sure what you are referring to. I think most economists have been predicting a slow down or even recession by end of year or 2020 and Trump's trade war seems to up those odds. But it sound like you think there was a recent signal that implies something imminent and nasty a-la 2008 and I am trying to figure out what since you keep mentioning debt which is irrelevant as minuteman pointed out. (Even if he seems to think Bitcoin is something countries need to worry about.)

 

[jalimon]

You are getting close Valcazar I am not sure about anything but I also think we are on the verge of another huge market correction à la 2000 or 2008.

2000 was due to the Internet bubble... People went crazy thinking all of a sudden we would all buy our groceries/clothes even our pets on the Internet... (which took 10 more years to acheive )

2008 was sub-prime crisis due to lack of regulation on the housing market

Could 2020 be the debt driven crisis? Read up about it a bit you will find the same numbers I found. I do not agree at all with Minuteman the debt ratio of corporate america is not irrelevant at all. Now I would need a real economist to explain why

Cheers,

 

[Albacor]

Take my advise Jalimon: hold on to your cash, then when the stocks market crashes, then you buy them all, and sell them after 6-10 months, trust me; you will make lots of $, meantime enjoy your life with all the SPs! :clap2: