Even if there is a slowdown or recession which spills into 2020, Trump can do various things to trigger short term stimulation of the economy, including trade agreements he is in the process of leveraging with hard line positions, or ordering the Federal Reserve Chairman to cut interest rates. It will all depend on the pre-election polls and the timing. Long term, the economy is cyclical regardless of who is in office, but whomever is in office can make moves that trigger short term stimulus. For these reasons voters should always be careful about allowing manipulations of the economy that result in short term trends to influence how they vote. You have to be in it for the long haul or not at all.
Will the Economy bubble explode soon?
- Thread starter jalimon
- Start date
I will not worry too much until after 2020.
Trump is going to play these games and then miraculously come up with trade deals and whatever he can to drive up the stock market and improve his odds of re-election.
Can't really blame him for it, the Democrats would do the same if they had the chance.
If you are in it for a long haul you should be ok, stocks are not for people who panic easily.
Trump is going to play these games and then miraculously come up with trade deals and whatever he can to drive up the stock market and improve his odds of re-election.
Can't really blame him for it, the Democrats would do the same if they had the chance.
If you are in it for a long haul you should be ok, stocks are not for people who panic easily.
Oh wait. You aren't talking about the debt or the defecit of the country, you are just talking corporate debt, maybe? And you mean GDP?
Oh. Then, yes, I think that is considered a sign of weakness and the likely recession, but I don't know why you would consider it likely to kick off a crisis of 2008 poportions. If someone comes in with a good theory of why it would be that bad, I will listen.
Oh. Then, yes, I think that is considered a sign of weakness and the likely recession, but I don't know why you would consider it likely to kick off a crisis of 2008 poportions. If someone comes in with a good theory of why it would be that bad, I will listen.
All the expert economists & super investors on CNBC & other news outlets have an excellent track record having predicted 10 out of the past 3 recessions.
If you don’t understand the above statement, be prepared to lose yr shirt investing.
If you don’t understand the above statement, be prepared to lose yr shirt investing.
I know Donbusch that’s why i am asking here 
Valcazar yes corporate debt. The US economy is booming for the past few years... Buts its booming just like a 21 years old would by reaching ages of drinking with unlimited access to credit card... At some point the party will crash...
Valcazar yes corporate debt. The US economy is booming for the past few years... Buts its booming just like a 21 years old would by reaching ages of drinking with unlimited access to credit card... At some point the party will crash...
The economy has been slowing down for a while. I'm not sure why you are fixated on corporate debt though. Interest rates are low, people took on debt to expand. Doesn't seem like a big deal as long as there is demand.
Is there a bubble people are expecting to burst? I guess the trade war could start a cascade of bad shit?
Am curious to hear if anyone local has economic theory to back things up.
Is there a bubble people are expecting to burst? I guess the trade war could start a cascade of bad shit?
Am curious to hear if anyone local has economic theory to back things up.
Valcazar because a debt's a debt.
Could corporate america be looking all good right now because it's running on debt. I mean look at it from a different perspective. Everything looks good when people gives you money. It's when they want the money back that problem arise.
So yes out of my current knowledge of economy as a university drop out I see the next crash entirely due to insane high corporate debt ratio.
Forget the trade war. The US loss each year due to internationnal trade front is peanuts and is absorbed easily because of the strong US in house economy. It became a political problem only because it's not shared correctly within the US population.
Cheers,
Could corporate america be looking all good right now because it's running on debt. I mean look at it from a different perspective. Everything looks good when people gives you money. It's when they want the money back that problem arise.
So yes out of my current knowledge of economy as a university drop out I see the next crash entirely due to insane high corporate debt ratio.
Forget the trade war. The US loss each year due to internationnal trade front is peanuts and is absorbed easily because of the strong US in house economy. It became a political problem only because it's not shared correctly within the US population.
Cheers,
All debts aren't created equal.
Why would you think a trade war is only a political problem? You think people not wanting to buy your stuff doesn't affect the economy?
Well. I am sure you can find people who say that the current corporate debt means the economy is about to crash like 2008. You should definitely sell everything you own, I guess.
(I like the suggestion to liquidate everything and just spend it on SPs. )
Why would you think a trade war is only a political problem? You think people not wanting to buy your stuff doesn't affect the economy?
Well. I am sure you can find people who say that the current corporate debt means the economy is about to crash like 2008. You should definitely sell everything you own, I guess.
(I like the suggestion to liquidate everything and just spend it on SPs. )
How often has the prediction of housing crash and stock market crash come up since 2008? Kind of sucks when none have happened yet. Same as the doomsday for climate change, the clock keeps advancing and people still expect it to happen, then the clock advances again.
It’s not just the US. Worldwide corporate debt levels have risen significantly and debt quality has fallen so clearly that’s a potential minefield.
Interestingly, US non-financial corporation debt to GDP ratio (Q42018) stands at only 74% compared to UK at 83%, Canada at 117%, France at 141%, China at 151%.
https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/f4.1
There’s also the issue of debt quality but it is doubtful that any country has worse corporate debt quality than China. However, China’s 6+% economic growth has helped to stave off major disruptive defaults.
Ultimately, the focus has to be on economic growth. Given enough growth & time, even bad debt becomes good and vice versa.
Central banks have remained on high alert since the Great Financial Crisis but given record low interest rates, there’s only so much that they can do.
Currently, I worry more about economic shocks causing a recession that in turn, may set off a worldwide corporate debt tsunami. For example; a real US-China trade war and possibly a hard Brexit.
Interestingly, US non-financial corporation debt to GDP ratio (Q42018) stands at only 74% compared to UK at 83%, Canada at 117%, France at 141%, China at 151%.
https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/f4.1
There’s also the issue of debt quality but it is doubtful that any country has worse corporate debt quality than China. However, China’s 6+% economic growth has helped to stave off major disruptive defaults.
Ultimately, the focus has to be on economic growth. Given enough growth & time, even bad debt becomes good and vice versa.
Central banks have remained on high alert since the Great Financial Crisis but given record low interest rates, there’s only so much that they can do.
Currently, I worry more about economic shocks causing a recession that in turn, may set off a worldwide corporate debt tsunami. For example; a real US-China trade war and possibly a hard Brexit.
Exactly!...these are the same clowns that have missed the entire bull market since 2008/2009... and especially the huge Trump rally since November 2016!
And Trump keeps giving freebies to "retail investors" by underpinning the market along the way but nobody listens!
Wanna test your mettle as an investor?
Hong Kong International Airport has just been shut down by massive protests which is incredible for the world’s 3rd largest financial centre. CNBC’s Cramer is ranting, almost foaming at the mouth about the possibility that China may send troops to quell the protestors which will be a major violation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration. The protestors have dug in for weeks and are not going anywhere while Hong Kong’s police look on helplessly. Hong Kong stocks r going to get further battered in the coming days.
Buying opportunity in the next few weeks or wait even longer till all hell breaks loose?
Hong Kong International Airport has just been shut down by massive protests which is incredible for the world’s 3rd largest financial centre. CNBC’s Cramer is ranting, almost foaming at the mouth about the possibility that China may send troops to quell the protestors which will be a major violation of the Sino-British Joint Declaration. The protestors have dug in for weeks and are not going anywhere while Hong Kong’s police look on helplessly. Hong Kong stocks r going to get further battered in the coming days.
Buying opportunity in the next few weeks or wait even longer till all hell breaks loose?
Exactly my initial question...
I would love to know what well verse finance guys do at this moment with their own money (not the money of their client...).
Cheers,
Well versed investors never risk their own money.
Not true. They do believe me they do.
Of course they balance and diversify their savings in various format with difference level of risk. Well versed investors are actually probably currently selling their own asset right now... Cashing out... Waiting for the moment to buy very low...
Cheers,
Well versed investors never risk their own money.
No offence!...however, that's one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever heard!
You must have seen too many times the movie "Other People's Money" with Danny DeVito!...lol!
Mostly nothing they sit tight with their investments, they are in it for the long haul and don’t get too upset with these fluctuations.
What you are describing is the definition of "passive investment managers"...or what I call "lazy fuck managers"...or "losers" because all they do is copy cat the benchmark indices!
Some honor or skill in doing that!...and on top of doing essentially close to nothing they charge a pretty hefty management fee to investors for being copy cats....lol!
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