View Poll Results: Will Quebec's minority liberal government fall over its first budget?
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Another Quebec election
With the budget vote scheduled for Friday June 1, the minority Liberals are faced with having their budget voted down which means another Quebec election.
Do you think that there will be a Quebec election this summer because of the budget? Will Charest change the budget or stand firm?
I think that Charest runs his government like he has a majority government when he does not. I don't think that he will back off and I also don't think that the other 2 parties will back off.
Charest has the most to lose if we are forced to go to election only a few months after our last election. The current polls show that the PQ has a slight edge over the ADQ with the liberals trailing in 3rd place.
Question: Will Quebec's minority liberal government fall over its first budget?
Response: Obviously, they won't be able to avoid that fall over since both opposition parties (ADQ, PQ) seem to be against the budget.
Now, if they go to elections again, this summer, it will be interesting to see what will happen: there would have been so little actions from the government (since it's a relatively short period of governance) that I don't see any substancial motivation to vote for or against the government.
My guess is that the reduction of taxes proposed by the government may be the only decisive factor in the majority of votes and still, what a great intrigue: will people buy the anti-taxes arguments of ADQ? or will they be sympathic to the government?
Agent Smith - Mr Anderson
I personally take quite abit of interest in politics so il give you my views on this matter.
First off, the Charest goverment had no choice but to put the tax reductions in his budget given the fact that he has been promising them for the past 5 years and has never delivered on that promiss. It is also one of his main selling points when he was campagning for the march elections so to not deliver on that promiss again would make him lose total integrety. I think the Liberals have a little crisis on their hands. They have Jean Charest as a leader a man who is most probably one of the most billingual politicians in Québec, also a man who brought the liberals back to power in a pretty dark era for this party. But with all that has been going on i think he is doing his party more bad then good by staying in place because he is quite hated by everyone even the people who vote for him lol. The problem is their is not really anyone qualified to replace him the 2 most likely candidates are Monique-Jérome-Forget and Couillard but Forget is pretty old and she is not all that much liked even if she is the one with the most experience. Couillard seems to be well liked even given his position as Health care Minister which usually ends up costing those Ministers alot of popularity because its such a hard enveloppe to manage. So we got to see what will happen on this front.
A party leaded by the popular yet un- experience Mario Dumont which seems to have trouble explaining what exactly his values are. On one side he says help the middle class and old people then tax reductions come which leviate about 1000$ off of the middle classes payroll and he seems appaulled and angry? Maybe hes just an unhappy man who knows. His depute in
charge of finance Gilles Taillon is totally without integrety a few years back when he was still in a buissiness man he was asking for most of the stuff the Monique-Forget budget is offering now hes angry and thinks its horrible until. However the big boom came when Radio-Canada interviewed him and showed him a clip of what he had said a few years back making him look like a idiot. ( and he did he was baffled when he saw that lol.) Personally i think Mario Dumont is a guy who is young and still has alot to learn before he ever becomes in my eyes a person who i would vote for to govern the province i live in. As much as i dont like most of the PQ's values i have to admit i would rather see them being governement then Mario Dumont, because atleast they have their values and they stick to them. A good example of this is the Débat des Chefs in which Mario Dumont proved his lack of integrety going into a media event such as this without a budget. His only argument was that he didn't feel like doing it twice is that smart to say? Your to lazy to make a budget twice so u just dont do it? Anyways also his idea of parti ''Nationalist'' is pretty dumb to be honnest it sounds like one of those adds where you try to stay in the middle to grab votes from everyone. Worths of all he is not even able to explain what his '' Nationalist'' position is which i found quite funny. Anyways all in all i think their is light at the end of the tunnel with him probably not if he stays in the ADQ but maybe if he eventually joins the liberals as many medias are currently anticipating in the future years. The problem is hes still young and has alot to learn and prove to the people before they decide to put him in office.
Ok just so theirs no confusion i am completly against sovereinty. With that said i have often wanted to vote for this party because i found some of theirs interesting. However with the coming of Boisclair i think most people have lost alot of faith in this party specially with its insistance of a referendum when people oviously dont want one anymore. I mean dont we have enough problems? You know what i find the most curious is they can't even establish a budget or plan on how are economy would work if this seperation would infact take place so by that logic all they want is to seperate and see what happens after. Personally id rather not even imagine what would happen. With that said this party has members who have quite abit of experience in politics. People like Francois Legault, Pauline Marois which by the way i am starting to like since she said she did not want a referendum for now. This party is most probably the one that sticks the most to its values. This could be a good thing and a bad thing, it is proven that most parties that are able to modify or adapt their values are the most successful ones. Take for example the Liberals their values fluctuate year per year yet they are the most sucessful party on both the Federal scale and the provincial in Québec. With that said i will watch what will happen with this party in the next months because it is up to Marois to either bring back this party by changing some of its values or it will most probably vanish like l'Union Nationale of good old Maurice.
Ok my hands are getting tired from all this typing therefore to come at my conclusion. Will their be elections? Its a hard question to answer given that i dont think its possible to answer it until a little latter in the week. It really depends on if Charest will budge and if the opposition decide to listen to the people who are clearly saying NO ELECTIONS. But in my eyes i dont think their will be elections i think charest knows elections are not the best thing right now even if the PQ's money reserves are empty and they dont even have a leader. I think he still fears l'ADQ and will adapt his budget to stay in office. OR he will play politics poker style and he will go into elections to try and get a majority if he fails he will most likely retire and leave the place to either Monique-Jérome-Forget or Phillippe Couillard.
Lets just remenber one thing. Elections cost about 75 Millions and when i say 75 million i mean just the voting stations and their employes. That does not include the little signs all over the place and the people who put them up or the money that goes to each party to advertise. So With that said do u think its not hipocritical to tell Charest's governement to not waiste money when they are on the other hand treatening to waiste 200+ Million on elections when we just had some 2 months ago?
Last edited by ZoneAlarm; 05-28-2007 at 08:48 AM.
My political forecast: election or no election, now or future, Quebec's government officials will be assholes and so will their opposition.
Agent Smith - Mr Anderson
Its a good thing not everybody thinks like you lol. Politicians public image usually either take a turn for the good or the worse its rare some stay neutral specially when their elected. The problem in Quebec is we have so many problems and we cant seem to elect a leader who solves them. When the PQ was in power it stoped investing in infrastructures and roads which gave them tons and tons of extra money but pretty much made the crappy roads we have today. Then the liberals won and they are doing good progress on fixing the roads i must admit everywhere i go i see them patching and redoing roads BUT all this spending is making the public Debt go up its currently 123,4 Billion and it keeps going up which is not good HOWEVER it is also going down if you compare it in percentage to the PIB it went from 42,2 to 41 this year so as long as that keeps going down their is no need to sound the alarms.
There is supposed to be talks happening between the PQ and the Liberals to avoid an election.
Why doesn't the Liberals just negotiate with the ADQ? Is it because Dumont won't negotiate when it comes to the tax cuts? The provincial Liberals are supposed to be considered center (slightly right of center) whereas the PQ is a left leaning party and the ADQ is a right leaning party. I think that the Liberals have more in common with the ADQ than they have with the PQ.
They did an analysis on why 70% of Quebecers/Quebecois don't want a tax cut in the English media (CJAD and Montreal Gazette). I'm not sure if it is true but this is what was said/written (and I'm paraphrasing): "70% of Quebecers don't want a tax cut because less than 50% of Quebecers actually pay tax." Their use of Quebecers is of course limited to voting age people in Quebec since if you include children who don't work, the percentage of people living in Quebec that pay tax would be a lot less. CJAD/Gazette mentioned that a more accurate poll would be to ask those Quebecers that actually pay tax whether they wanted a tax cut.
Originally Posted by traveller_76
Personally, I'm one of the Quebecers that pay tax and I'm not crazy about a tax cut even though I think that I pay a lot to the Quebec government (PST, income tax, gas taxes, etc.).
I feel that the Quebec governmen't should use the money to pay off some of the debt. It is the most responsible thing that they could do with the money. When interest on the debt takes about/over 33% of the government's annual revenues, there is a problem. When the government is able to spend less than 66% of the money that it takes it, how can it maintain/improve services with the ever increasing inflation and salaries of doctors, nurses, etc. (which are much deserved I might add)?
If I had $5000 balance on my credit card, the minimum balance was $150, my monthly necessity expenses totalled $500, and monthly I made $1000, I wouldn't pay the minimum balance on my credit card and buy something new with the remaining $350 (after taking into account the $500 that are for essentials). I would use the remaining $350 to reduce the balance on my credit card which will save me over 20% in interest costs alone.
For me, an election less than 6 months after our last election is a complete waste of time and a big waste of money. Money that could be spent better in reducing the debt or maintaining/improving services.
Last edited by jacep; 05-30-2007 at 09:36 AM.
Every person's vote is important and counts. However, I think that CJAD and the Gazette was pointing out that since less than 50% of voting age Quebecers/Quebecois pay any income tax, the 70% number is a bit misleading and should not be taken out of context.
The question is similar to asking people who are on welfare whether they should work/volunteer in order to get their government cheques (workfare). People on welfare will generally say no. People not on welfare will generally say yes unless it is obvious that the person on welfare can't work/volunteer.
It is similar to asking people whether people with SUVs should pay more for gas. For people without SUVs they don't care or would probably say yes they should. For people who have SUVs the majority of them would say no.
If the polling question or political decision doesn't affect people adversely, they will generally respond accordingly.
I don't know much about economics either but I know that paying down debt is always a good idea and it is also a good idea to live within your means. In fact, when I originally financed my first car for 5 years, I made sure that all my extra money went into extra payments so I actually managed to pay it off in roughly half the time.
Last edited by jacep; 05-30-2007 at 10:00 AM.
Agent Smith - Mr Anderson
Hmm politics My passion.
You see the problem is the concept of tax reduction is a illusion. The reason for this is because is the french expression '' Donner d'une main, prendre de l'autre''. The governement gives a tax reduction of 950 Million yes, but when you look at from a micro economics point you notice that well look at that Hydro rate going up, oh look gas is going up, oh look the value of my house is going up Yay no wait Crap means i got to pay more taxes, and oh dang car insurance cost more. So out of the 1k u might get from this tax reduction u pretty much receive a big nada in the end. On the other hand, we have some of the best universities in the world here that are accumulating huge deficits like UQUAM and McGill. I went to both these schools and let me tell you they are both excellent schools with excellent teachers BUT, when it comes the time to look at the other aspects of the school well lets see the buildings are falling appart most of the equipement is old, the computers are Pentium II's. Oviously this doesn't apply everywhere and they have been improving this, but the main problem remains that the university is in debt. Normally id say so what everyone and everything has debts but you see a university doesn't really have revenues hang on i know what ur thinking '' Hey we pay money to go to school ''. Oviously we pay money but not only is it cheaper here then in any university in North America we also have excellent schools. Now what we pay the rate is about 1280$ per session so double 2560$. Ok it infact cost about 10000$ per student so what we pay is actually like 25% of what it cost to go to school the goverment assumes the rest of the Bling. McGill being one the the richest universities in Canada has an Endowment of about $832.8 Million which is no small ammount compared to the $89,3 Million Université the Montreal has. People need to realise that the problem is not one of funding but one of structure. Everything is relative everything has balance. For every cause their is a consequence sometimes i wonder if politics ever followed philosophy classes. In Health care no matter how much money we throw at the problem their will always be a problem in that area why? ( Cause) Well oviously for many reason firsts off being the lack of funding in education.(Consequence) The very core of a civilization is created by the people who inhabit it. Which is why no country is equal. In Quebec are problem is quite clear we have a lack of docters and specially nurses. Why? might have something to do with the Parti Québécois basicly firering all kinds of nurses after the 1995 referendum.
Im going to write the rest in french so everyone will understand a little part lol.
Bon ! comme je disais, le PQ a l'air de nous prendre pour des idiots en essayant de tous cacher leurs erreurs des années ou ils ont ''Essayer'' de gouverner le Québec. Cette période de a été marqué par des conséquence qui nous affectent encore aujourd'hui en 2007... je pense entre autres aux retraites pour les infirmières... le PQ ne devait pas s'attendre qu'autant d'infirmière en profiterait... alors la conséquence aujourd'hui est qu'il faut attendre un MINIMUM de 9 à 10 heures pour passer à l'urgence... alors qu'en 1990, c'était un MAXIMUM de 2 heures!
Pourquoi les docteurs ne veulent t'il pas rester ici? ben honnêtement je ne les comprends il se font payer 80% de ce que les autres docteurs du pays ce font payer d'autant plus que leurs conditions de travails sont affreuse.
Alors il y a tu une solution a ce problème? Bien disons qu'on parle de sa assez longtemps pour avoir pris compte de presque toute les possibilités. D'après moi, nous devons avoir un système de santé a deux vitesses tout en maintenant le cap sur l'égalité entre ses deux services. L'élément naturels des lois des marchés prendrons naissances et on remarquera une compétition entre ces dernières qui rendrera nos hopitaux plus modernisé. Par contre, il faut aussi faire attention, il ne faut pas que tous les docteurs se dirige vers le privé, donc il faut leur donné de meilleurs conditions de travail et des salaires compétitif. On peut s'imaginer qu'avec l'arrivé de plusieurs centre privé le gouvernement recevera d'avantage de revenus. Bref, avant de s'attaquer à la santé il faut arranger l'éducation, nous avons les meilleurs universités au monde si on prend en compte prix / qualité de plus le plus d'université par habitant. Plus de 15 université pour une population de 7 Million. Il y a déja des écoles qui sont très compétitif comme McGill pour la santé et en droits et pour les finances l'administration l'université Des Hautes Études Commerciales figure parmis dans le top 10 des écoles de gestion mondial.
Cela dit, il ne reste qu'une chose a faire. Attendre a demain voir si nous allons retournée aux urnes et dépenser un autre 80 Million que nous avons pas. L'une chose est sure le PQ ne veut pas d'élection lol il sont sans chef, Pauline Marois ne sera pas élue avant le 28 Juin et les élections aurons lieu première semaine de Juillet ce qui va faire très pitier pour eux. Et je pense que Tête de pigeon (Je parle de Dumont, je sais que vous pensiez a Harper LOL) sait qu'il a un lucky streak et qu'il n'est pas aussi 'populaire' qu'il prétend l'être. Il a un cabinet de ministre qui ont absolument aucune expérience en politique d'ailleurs lui non plus en a pas car il n'a jamais eu plus de 6 siège ce qui fait que c'est la première fois qu'il siège a la chambre d'assembler. Son ministre en charge des finances est une joke il c'est fait complètement démolir a radio-canada par Dominique Poirier qui je pense a du bien rire de sa guele LOL.
Pour mes good old Libs. Bon je pense que c'est le temps que Charest acroche ses souliers et qu'il ce retire de la politique. Il y avait un temps que notre petit mouton Ministre était un Boy wonder, mais avec tous les problèmes auquel il fait face et son arrogance envers le peuple je pense qu'il est devenu plus haïe que Notre Pigeon at Ottawa Harper. Alors, pour le bon de son partie il devrait laisser sa place a qq'un d'autre ou il doit changer son caractère sinon son gouvernement va tomber et quand je dit tomber je parle pas de son budget je parle qu'il ne se feront pas ré élire.
Bon Ouf, j'attend une réplique pour écrire un autre livre lol.
I agree with you 100%. The unions are too powerful in Quebec. I think that we are the most unionized state/provincial jurisdiction in North America. Unions had a use back in their early days when people were paid unfair wages and working in dangerous conditions but now,we have things like CSST, etc. so they are not necessary. When unions say that someone getting paid $25/hour doing bus maintenance should get a raise while these same bus maintenance employees have job security, it is crazy. Even when employees do things wrong like claim to have worked a full days work when they only worked a few hours, management can't fire them. If these unionized people worked in regular jobs, a lot of them wouldn't survive. Unions breed incompetance and laziness where people with seniority keep their jobs regardless of their quality of work. In regular jobs, seniority helps but doesn't protect an employee who lies/cheats the company. Quebec will never be competitive because we have more of an overhead in terms of spending.
Originally Posted by Maxima
I hope that people punish the politicians on the next election if we are forced to go to election so soon. However, I'm not sure who they will punish. Will they punish the Liberals for sticking to the "unpopular" tax cut? Will they punish the ADQ for absolutely refusing to negotiate thereby forcing an election if the PQ doesn't come to an agreement with the Liberals? Or will they punish the PQ for holding the balance of power and not siding with the Liberals on the budget?
Originally Posted by Maxima
I understand how you feel about wanting the maximum tax cut. However, the tax cut this year will mean a tax increase in future years to pay for the ever mounting debt.
The problem with a lot of people (not just people in Quebec) is that they can only see the here/now and they want instant gratification/satisfaction. If they get a $2000 tax refund when they file their income tax, a lot of people will spend the money on a vacation or whatever even though they have an outstanding debt requiring interest payments on their credit card, house, line of credit, car, etc.
Last edited by jacep; 05-31-2007 at 08:46 PM.
Agent Smith - Mr Anderson
Hang on i think you guys missed something the tax cuts only apply for this year. He never said it would be reccuring lol. U get them this year but dont think about getting them again lol.
You editted your post and said that it seems that I was for the PQ. I'm far from being with the PQ although I do believe in some of the things that they say. I would say that I'm either with the Liberals or the ADQ since I'm right of center whereas the PQ is a left of center party. I'm anti-union and the PQ is pro-union.
Originally Posted by Maxima
I don't have an issue with a tax cut. I'm also paying a lot in taxes as I mentioned in my previous post. However, I think that instead of giving a tax cut, we should pay down our debt. The PQ's message is to spend more money to try to fix the problem. Spending money that you don't really have won't fix anything. The PQ under Pauline Marois also proposed an income tax cut when she was finance minister.
What I meant in my previous post was that a tax cut today will mean a tax increase in a future year because we are in debt. The only way a tax cut today won't mean a tax increase in a future year is to decrease spending which is very difficult with the demands of the various unions and with inflation or to cut services.
Using this as an example (although it is a poor example, it does loosely illustrate my point): When I get a tax refund from the government of $3000, if I have a debt of $10,000.00, should I give my tax refund to my children to spend on what they want? I wouldn't do this. Now, I change this slightly: The Canadian government gives the provincial Quebec government a large amount of money in equalization payment. The Quebec government is highly in debt where almost a third of the money that it takes in is used to pay the interest on the debt. Should they give this equalization payment to its tax paying citizens as an income tax refund?
Not paying down debt whether it be personal debt or provincial/federal debt will just make our children or future generations pay at the end.
Last edited by jacep; 05-31-2007 at 10:07 PM.
In such a scenario I would hope that voters would punish the ADQ and the PQ. All politicians are scumbags and Charest may have the smallest set of balls in North America but in this case he is being crucified for honoring his campaign promise. If he had not proposed tax cuts, the same bastards who are vilifying him for them would be stoning him for not fulfilling his promise.
Originally Posted by jimace
Face it - the vermin in the PQ are hoping to topple the government because they finally got rid of their coke-snorting gay liability "I'll never apologize", they watched the "courageous" (chuckle!) departure of Gilles "Cheese Condom" Duceppe and they believe that Queen Pauline (who has finally ascended after previous failed attempts) will lead them to the promised land.
As for less-than-super Mario, he's so close to the throne that he can taste it.
Charest and his crew aren't much to be proud of but in this case they're head and shoulders above the other rats trying to climb up on the dinner table.