2013 Official Major League Baseball Thread.

[rumpleforeskiin]

Run differential is a crock of crap, rumps.
Washington Nationals are in second place in the AL East with a 19-15 record and they have a -9 run differential.
World Series champs San Francisco Giants are tied for first place with a 20-15 record and they have a 0 run differential.
Kansas City is in second place in the AL Central with a 19-15 record and they have an +18 run differential.

Speaking of subjective, you've selected three teams here out of thirty.

Of the three, the Kansas City Royals are exactly where they should be with regard to run differential. There are 30 teams in the major leagues; 25 of them are within 2 wins of where their run differential say they should be. I'd say that's a fairly definitive argument that it works. Only the Yankees, Nationals, and Giants have won more than two out of line; only the Cubs have lost more than two out of line.

 

[Joe.t]

Actually, the historical record of sabermetric accuracy is quite the reverse. It's really not surprising at all that Joe.T is willing to make a statement about something about which he knows absolutely nothing. (What's new?) Sabermetrics are not used to predict the future, nor can they affect such things as injuries. They are used to help with things like roster construction and scouting.

The Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 and 2007. When did they hire Bill James? 2003. The recent success of the Texas Rangers can be directly linked to their hiring of Craig Wright. The success of the Oakland A's, despite one of baseball's lowest payrolls, can be directly tied to the use of Sabermetrics. Sabermetrics have been instrumental in the scouting successes of the Tampa Rays in the last 7-8 years.

I highly doubt that you can attribute the 2004*** and 2007*** wins to sabremetrics, a team that had the second biggest salary in all of baseball in both those years also a team that consisted of Ortiz, Manny etc, this is a fact, sorry for busting your delusional bubble(again).

 

[Merlot]

Hello to Real Baseball Fans,

Mariano Rivera is now tied for the AL lead with 13 saves

Rivera:

13 for 13 in saves
1.88 ERA
0.98 WHIP

All below his career numbers on ERA and WHIP at age 43. I see no reason why he should retire at this point.

Between Rivera's leading the league in saves...should surely be thanking their steroid dealers!! Lol.

This is a great accomplishment and I believe it's totally legitimate. I wouldn't demean Rivera for any reason. As a Red Sox fan it would demean the teams accomplishment to do so anyway. The Series Championship in 2004 was EPIC because we went through the Yankees to win it, and all the more EPIC because we came back from 0-3 and had to beat the greatest reliever ever from behind in game 4. In any case, he's legit and he's the best. All the more reason for Sox fans to take the greatest PRIDE in 2004.

However just to make a point, if you are going to model conclusions on scenarios like ...he's old ...he's doing things players DON'T do at that age you should be aware of who you must accuse. Ortiz and Rivera are older, both have been linked in the past in different ways to some form of cheating, both have come back from injuries recently, both are seemingly performing right now at a level that should be 95% or more unlikely, both have been tested multiple times and passed during the same period, both are from notorious regions where banned substances are easily available.

One difference is apparent evidence. Video evidence purports to show Rivera cheating. In the case of Ortiz, his name was supposedly on the Mitchell Report list, but the New York Times name by name publication of the report does NOT list Ortiz. So the bigger strike is actually on Rivera IF anyone wants to base their conclusions on apparent evidence. Anyone who wants to make a conclusive statement that either is cheating must deal with the fact nothing implicates Ortiz except conjecture, while Rivera is implicated on video.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/12/13/sports/20071213_MITCHELL_FEATURE.html?_r=0

You mean those made up sources in your head? This from someone too ashamed or afraid to divulge his true team allegiance but only here to rip on the Sox and their fans. Typical DD41. You never get old, amigo.

Exactly. FAKE FAN is only here because political threads on the U.S. are banned. He never refers to any team as his own, and obviously has none. He's here to stalk Sox fans...PERIOD! I refuse to respond to him.

Two of the Sox' three losses to Minnesota were the direct result of lousy defense. Pedro Ciriaco cost them one game with two errors on consecutive plays and John Lackey cost them last nights game. They've made 19 errors in their last 18 games.

Due to the fact that Buchholz, Lester, Dempster, and Lackey are all pitching very well, I'm still confident of their staying in the race all season.

What worries me is their depth ( lack of) at key positions where seem thin. I don't want to see them rush in potential great talent from the minors who aren't ready.

Now Faker will attack...for your entertainment.



Merlot

 

[daydreamer41]

Speaking of subjective, you've selected three teams here out of thirty.

Of the three, the Kansas City Royals are exactly where they should be with regard to run differential. There are 30 teams in the major leagues; 25 of them are within 2 wins of where their run differential say they should be. I'd say that's a fairly definitive argument that it works. Only the Yankees, Nationals, and Giants have won more than two out of line; only the Cubs have lost more than two out of line.

Subjective? Why are you even bringing up the word?

Rumps, you have been lamenting from the third week of the season the low Run differential the Yankees have, and have been saying that the Yankees will start losing because of it - as it happens 100 percent of the time.

But that is false rumps. Look at the Baltimore Orioles last year. The Orioles finished in second place with a record of 93-69 and a run differential of +7. How did they do this? The Orioles had outstanding relief pitching and never gave up a lead after the leading in the 8th inning.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/date/20121003

Logic tells you that if a team does score more runs than its opponents, the odds of that team having a better record is much larger. However, there are teams that just win close games. They may get blown out every so often.

The 2013 NY Yankees have some of their run producers on the DL. They have gotten good pitching, and their offense has been just good enough to win games with good pitching. Once they get Granderson and Teixeira back, their run production should improve. The Yankees run production may not be as good as last year, but it will good enough to give them a good chance of winning the AL East or getting a wild card.

 

[daydreamer41]

Hello to Real Baseball Fans,

Exactly. FAKE FAN is only here because political threads on the U.S. are banned. He never refers to any team as his own, and obviously has none. He's here to stalk Sox fans...PERIOD! I refuse to respond to him.



What worries me is their depth ( lack of) at key positions where seem thin. I don't want to see them rush in potential great talent from the minors who aren't ready.

Now Faker will attack...for your entertainment.



Merlot

Hey Merlot, I shall give you no respect, you little weasel, since you give me no respect.

My favorite team on merb is the NY Yankees. I have lived in NY for a long time and pay NY taxes. So I am a NY Yankee fan. Are they my all time favorite team? No.

But since no one else posting on this thread has allegiance to any other team than the NY Yankees or the Boston Red Sox, I will pay my allegiance to the NY Yankees.

I find Boston, or more so, Boston fans to be deplorable. I did not always feel that way. I used to like the Boston Celtics when Bill Russell, Jo Jo White, Bill Nelson, and John Havilcheck played for the Celtics. I also like the NY Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers. But today, I despise all Boston teams, because I find Boston fans to be obnoxious.

I noticed you say that I will attack for your entertainment. I guess that makes you a shit disturber, doesn't it, Merlot?

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Rumps, you have been lamenting from the third week of the season the low Run differential the Yankees have, and have been saying that the Yankees will start losing because of it - as it happens 100 percent of the time.

I never said it happens 100% of the time; it only happens about 90% of the time. Wide variations, such as the Orioles record in one run and extra inning games last year, are due, plain and simple, to luck.

The Yankees have had very good pitching this year, but they've also been quite lucky.

 

[daydreamer41]

I never said it happens 100% of the time; it only happens about 90% of the time. Wide variations, such as the Orioles record in one run and extra inning games last year, are due, plain and simple, to luck.

The Yankees have had very good pitching this year, but they've also been quite lucky.

I don't know if you can attribute the Orioles success to luck. Orioles' bullpen was phenomenal last year. Orioles had a 74-0 record after leading in the 8th inning It was because the Orioles shut down their opponents when they had the lead, not luck.

By the way, Detroit had a 77-0 record in 2011. Detroit was 95-77 with a run differential of +76. NY Yankees were 97-65 with a run differential of +210. Both teams won their respective divisions in 2011. Boston was in 3rd place at 91-71 and had a run differential of +138, almost twice as much as Detroit.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/date/20111002

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Lots of teams, including your Yankees, have and have had good bullpens. The Yankees were 22-25 in one run games; the Orioles 29-9. The Yankees were 6-3 in extra inning games; the Orioles 16-2. Their run distribution was the result of good luck, plain and simple.

 

[lgna69xxx]

Another FLAW of the Sabers and their Metrics! (luck) Hahahaah

Lots of teams, including your Yankees, have and have had good bullpens. The Yankees were 22-25 in one run games; the Orioles 29-9. The Yankees were 6-3 in extra inning games; the Orioles 16-2. Their run distribution was the result of good luck, plain and simple.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Trouble With The Curve

I saw this movie tonight. Very entertaining. Not as good as Moneyball as a baseball movie, but good. However, it's very similar to Moneyball as far as the central baseball conflict in the movie being between old time scouting (as embodied by Clint Eastwood's character) vs. modern Sabermetric computer analysis, except in Trouble With The Curve, unlike Moneyball, old time scouting proves to be more effective in the scouting of a particular player. The movie follows the scouting of a possible overall #1 MLB draft pick whom Braves scout Gus Lobel (Eastwood) comes to believe cannot hit a curve ball, basing his judgment on the sound of the ball off of his bat and his daughter's observation of his hands drifting. The Sabermetric/computer analysts feel otherwise about the player. I must say that the actor who they got to play this guy in the baseball action scenes has a very, very nice swing (I think they used a baseball double for the actual character actor). It also turns out that the kid is a major prima donna, something that neither the old scouts nor the sabermetric stat aficionados within the Braves organization can see, but the viewer can based on how the guy interacts with his teammates.

Unwittingly and by accident, Gus's daugher discovers a phenom young Mexican lefty pitcher pitching in a lot near her hotel, who bears a strong resemblance to Yankees prospect Manny Banuelos and has stuff like Sandy Koufax. Ultimately, the young Mexican lefty faces the player whom the Braves have been scouting. Predictable ending, but entertaining nonetheless.

Justin Timberlake plays a Red Sox Scout who was once signed to a contract by Gus, but was traded by the Braves to the Red Sox and then blew out his arm as a result of misuse by the Red Sox.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Joe Girardi Wins 500th Game as Yankees Manager

Congratulations to Joe Girardi on his 500th win as Yankees manager tonight. He continues to show he is one of the better managers in Major League Baseball. While other MLB teams change Managers like Lindsay Lohan changes her clothes, you hear nary a word about Joe G's job security. It's because he goes out there and proves it and does the job big time. He is probably the best manager of a bullpen I have ever seen of any MLB manager ever, and his general late game management is second to none, as displayed the other night in Colorado when he completely outmaneuvered the Colorado manager. It's fun when an AL manager goes into an NL city and turns the NL style management against the NL Team. You have to love it when this happens in the NL park playing under the NL rules.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Shawn Kelley

I would also be loathe not to congratulate Yankees reliever Shawn Kelley on striking out 6 of the 7 batters he faced tonight, this on a night when Preston Claiborne, David Robinson and Mariano Rivera were all deemed unavailable by Joe Girardi, thus rendering essential his fine 2.1 inning hitless performance.

 

[daydreamer41]

Speaking of subjective, you've selected three teams here out of thirty.

Of the three, the Kansas City Royals are exactly where they should be with regard to run differential. There are 30 teams in the major leagues; 25 of them are within 2 wins of where their run differential say they should be. I'd say that's a fairly definitive argument that it works. Only the Yankees, Nationals, and Giants have won more than two out of line; only the Cubs have lost more than two out of line.

Kansas City Royals after their 11-6 loss to NY is now 18-14 with a +13 run differential.
NY Yankees after their 11-6 win over KC is now 21-13 with a +16 run differential.
Are the Royals and Yankees exactly where they should be in regard to run differential?

Run differential is a crock of crap, rumps.

Washington Nationals are in second place in the AL East with a 19-15 record and they have a -9 run differential.

World Series champs San Francisco Giants are tied for first place with a 20-15 record and they have a 0 run differential.

Kansas City is in second place in the AL Central with a 18-13 record and they have an +18 run differential.

Run differentials can be made moot by a couple of blow outs in losing or winning efforts.

 

[daydreamer41]

Congratulations to Joe Girardi on his 500th win as Yankees manager tonight. He continues to show he is one of the better managers in Major League Baseball. While other MLB teams change Managers like Lindsay Lohan changes her clothes, you hear nary a word about Joe G's job security. It's because he goes out there and proves it and does the job big time. He is probably the best manager of a bullpen I have ever seen of any MLB manager ever, and his general late game management is second to none, as displayed the other night in Colorado when he completely outmaneuvered the Colorado manager. It's fun when an AL manager goes into an NL city and turns the NL style management against the NL Team. You have to love it when this happens in the NL park playing under the NL rules.

It's not surprising. Girardi spent 11 of his 15 year player career in the National League, playing for the Cubs, Rockies, and briefly Cardinals. So he would be familiar with the National League rules.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Are the Royals and Yankees exactly where they should be in regard to run differential?

The Yankees have won between 2.2 and 3.2 games more than their adjusted figure, depending on which metric you choose.
The Royals have won between .6 and 2.2 games more than they should have.

What you'll find throughout is that the metrics tend to line up pretty well. I personally prefer 3rd order as it considers strength of schedule as well as run differential.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

[Special K]

What's with the umpires this season? Have they forgotten their rule books, have they missed their optometrist appointments? First Angel Hernandez blows a game tying HR call in Cleveland and ruled it a double EVEN AFTER reviewing the video of the play. How the FUCK does that happen? Secondly, Fielden Culbreath allows a pitcher to be replaced without having faced a batter, this seems like a pretty basic rule to screw up! These guys need to be held to super standards and not just take their position as MLB umpires for granted!

http://news.yahoo.com/mlb-acknowledges-2nd-umpire-mistake-2-days-184521834.html

 

[EagerBeaver]

Peter Gammons reported that Angel Hernandez deliberately refused to reverse a call he knew to be inaccurate to "make a statement" about instant replay. I think the umpires see their jobs possibly being threatened by the advent of greater technology such as the program that can call balls and strikes like they have in tennis for balls that are out, and by instant replay. So Hernandez wanted to make a statement that human error is part of the game of baseball. That is what Gammons is reporting. It is a bit shocking but I actually think the umpires need to exert control over the game and make themselves seem important rather than lose their jobs to slick new technology.

Most MLB umpires make around $200K from what I read- pretty good gig for 3 hours work for 6 months out of the year. Can you really blame them for desperately trying to hang on to that money train?

 

[Special K]

That's an interesting view from Gammons. I hadn't heard about that yet, although it sounds to me like an asinine way to make a point, just making yourself look more incompetent.

 

[EagerBeaver]

That's an interesting view from Gammons. I hadn't heard about that yet, although it sounds to me like an asinine way to make a point, just making yourself look more incompetent.

Special K, here is a link to the Gammons interview with Dan Patrick:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2...ecause-hes-philosophically-opposed-to-replay/

 

[Joe.t]

Congrats to the New York Yankees, it is May 11 and the Yankees are in first place and have the second best record in the AL and the third best in all of baseball, truly a remarkable achievement considering that everybody had them written off for dead before the season started.