I find their projected 2015 records to be fascinating. Only 2 teams according to whoever devised those projections will win more than 90 games, Washington with 94 games and the LA Dodgers with 90 games. Is there that much parity in major league baseball or has the quality of the players diminish so much and everyone is equally mediocre?
2014/2015 Official MLB Offseason Thread: Signings, Trades, Rumors, Etc.
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I find their projected 2015 records to be fascinating. Only 2 teams according to whoever devised those projections will win more than 90 games, Washington with 94 games and the LA Dodgers with 90 games. Is there that much parity in major league baseball or has the quality of the players diminish so much and everyone is equally mediocre?
DD41,
From the average fans perspective baseball is boring today compared to the steroid era. I love the game no matter what but it is a little watered down now versus juiced up a decade or so ago. Can't have it both ways so I guess we have to accept what we are given.
From the average fans perspective baseball is boring today compared to the steroid era. I love the game no matter what but it is a little watered down now versus juiced up a decade or so ago. Can't have it both ways so I guess we have to accept what we are given.
Yes, there is that much parity in baseball. It used to be that one team could buy their way deep into October, but no more. The whole game, more popular than ever, is drowning in money. Both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners have recently signed multi-billion dollar cable deals. Teams are signing young players to long term deals before they reach free agency. Every team is working Latin America where just a few used to. Teams are using advanced statistical metrics to gain advantage.
As for the projections, they always tend to break toward the middle. Some teams will break out and blow past them (or fail to meet them) big a large margin, but most teams will fall within the general range of projection. As Joe pointed out, the Red Sox project to win four games more than the Yankees, meaning they are equally likely to beat the Yankees by 8 games as to finish tied with them.
Injuries are not factored in. Masahiro Tanaka is projected at 185 innings. CC Sabathia is projected at 186. Mark Teixeira is projected at 422 appearances. In short, the Red Sox project 4 games better than a healthy Yankees team.
The projections are a snapshot in time and that time is before the season starts. The projections are updated daily.
Trades and the success of mid-season call-ups are also not factored in.
I don't think there were steroid use in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, when the best baseball was played. You had teams like the Yankees of the 1950s to the early 1960s, or the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Oakland A's, Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1970s. Even the Red Sox were good, although they never won a World Series back then. Who can forget the Amazing Mets of 1969? All of these teams had very good teams, and I doubt there were steroid use back then (although Lyle Alzado used it in football).
I really doubt that Hank Aaron used steroids because of his reaction to Barry Bond when Bond was passing his record. Although Aaron was not a massive guy (6 ft., 180 lb), he had a large chest and very quick hands and strong wrists which aided him in home run hitting. Barry Bonds was a skinny runt also who grew using steroids, but a good hitter, but never had the attributes that Aaron had without steroid use.
I think that the positioning of fielders has lowered the batting averages a bit more than the lack of steroid use. Hitters are going to have to learn how to place the ball where the fielders are not to get rid of those shifts.
The lack of hitting may be due to the increased use of positioning of fielders and not solely because lack of steroid use.
You mean a healthy Red Sox team is projected to be 4 games better than a healthy Yankees team? How many innings is Clay Buchholz supposed to pitch?
Basically, the author of those predictions are saying that the Red Sox before the season has started have improved by 15 games over last year, and the Yankees are 2 games worse than last year in their estimation. Predictions, projections, etc. are guesses, even if they are adjusted. They are interesting reading, but the projections don't become real until the last day of the season.
Yes, all projections for all teams are based upon "healthy." They project Buchholz at 181 ip. They also project Miley at 176, some 25 fewer than each of the past few years. They also project Pineda at 172.
Jacoby Glassbury is projected at 580 plate appearances. Given that he's likely to miss much if not all of April, that one is probably already gone by the boards.
They also make no allowance for mid-season trades. Given the Red Sox farm system, they can certainly get arms should they have the need. Again, these projections will change by the day and are based upon how the rosters look at the moment. If you take a look at the projections, most player projections are pretty modest, allowing for best and worst case scenarios. David Ortiz, for example, projects to have his worst season in over 10 years. He is, after all, going to decline some time.
I do agree with some of you that the Jays' offense may be the best of the AL East. I also agree that there are many question marks in regards to pitching, just as it was last season. But the loss of Marcus Stroman may be an exaggeration. He wasn't expected to win more than 15 games and i believe that the guy replacing him in the starting staff as good & promising as he is: Daniel Norris, who wasn't expected to be a starter. Yes, the bullpen may or may not be effective. That's a bullpen for you. The Jays are hoping that some of the relievers will surprise many & make the fans forget Casey Jansen, whom let's face it......was never a bonafide closer. One kid that has been extremely impressive at camp has been 20-year old Miguel Castro. Several people watching the Jays believe that he'll be kept by the big team since he's been lights out as a reliever so far in this spring season.
The offense will also be better than last season's, which was actually very good. Colby Rasmus was a major bust in the lineup and so was 2nd base since Maicer Izturis went down to injury early in the season. Adam Lind was always injured & so was third baseman Brett Lawrie. At catcher, Dioner Navarro was a good hitter, but not that good of a defensive catcher/game caller. The second base job is being fought between Maicer Izturis, Ryan Goins & Devan Travis. My guess is that it'll be either Goins or Travis, who are now hitting really well at camp and Travis has surprised many with his defense. First base will be shared between Edwin Encarnacion & Justin Smoak. When Encarnacion isn't playing first base, he'll be the DH, a job he'll share with Navarro. Russell Martin will catch most of the game & he's regarded as one of the league's best game-callers.
Even without Melky Cabrera in the lineup, the team's offense should be better than last season's for the reasons i mentionned. As for pitching, the starting staff should be quite fine. Question marks in the bullpen, but let's face it, the entire division has the same question marks about their respective pitching staffs.
That's why i'm picking the Jays to finish atop the AL East.
The offense will also be better than last season's, which was actually very good. Colby Rasmus was a major bust in the lineup and so was 2nd base since Maicer Izturis went down to injury early in the season. Adam Lind was always injured & so was third baseman Brett Lawrie. At catcher, Dioner Navarro was a good hitter, but not that good of a defensive catcher/game caller. The second base job is being fought between Maicer Izturis, Ryan Goins & Devan Travis. My guess is that it'll be either Goins or Travis, who are now hitting really well at camp and Travis has surprised many with his defense. First base will be shared between Edwin Encarnacion & Justin Smoak. When Encarnacion isn't playing first base, he'll be the DH, a job he'll share with Navarro. Russell Martin will catch most of the game & he's regarded as one of the league's best game-callers.
Even without Melky Cabrera in the lineup, the team's offense should be better than last season's for the reasons i mentionned. As for pitching, the starting staff should be quite fine. Question marks in the bullpen, but let's face it, the entire division has the same question marks about their respective pitching staffs.
That's why i'm picking the Jays to finish atop the AL East.
We know how much stock Joe puts in Spring Training stats, so it should be noted that Cheeseburger Cheeseburger Sabathia served up two dingers in the first inning today.
Personally speaking, i think CC is done. The Yankees should have got rid of him when they had the chance. But with that big contract of his, i'm not too certain that they would have been able to. Maybe A-Rod can also pitch?
Not at all, his velocity is way up from last spring and from all reports the Yanks are very encouraged with CC. Spring is a time to work on mechanics and timing especially with pitchers and more so starters and like CC said after the game, it is about timing now.
Last spring he was hitting 88mph in the spring, his first pitch in his first start 5 days ago was 96mph and routinely hit 92-94 then and todays start. Needless to say Girardi and Rothschild were very pleased. Now it is about shaking off the rust from not pitching in a game in almost a year.
Is he gonna be the CC from a few years ago? No, but if healthy he should be a decent 3-5 guy and servicable. As always, time will tell and questions will be answered.
2 weeks from tonight the season begins in Chi-town.
Last spring he was hitting 88mph in the spring, his first pitch in his first start 5 days ago was 96mph and routinely hit 92-94 then and todays start. Needless to say Girardi and Rothschild were very pleased. Now it is about shaking off the rust from not pitching in a game in almost a year.
Is he gonna be the CC from a few years ago? No, but if healthy he should be a decent 3-5 guy and servicable. As always, time will tell and questions will be answered.
2 weeks from tonight the season begins in Chi-town.
I had a dream last night & i'm sad to announce that CC Sabathia has about 10 years left to live.
I've had these premonition-type dreams in the past & half of them have come true.
I've had these premonition-type dreams in the past & half of them have come true.
I had a dream last night and i'm sad to announce(for Boston fans) that the Red Sox pitching will let them down, no number one's and a whole bunch of number three's make up this rotation(read that somewhere recently), not to harp on ST stats but the Red Sox pitching has been atrocious including today's game, this will be their downfall according to the dream that I had, just google Red Sox pitching for 2015 and you will see what my dream was telling me.:nod:
I had the same dream! The dream also mentionned that the Red Sox pitching staff was no better than the one in NY or Toronto, among others.
Quite true, Joe. The minor leaguers who pitched today did not do well at all.
Also quite true. However, if their pitching is half as good as Toronto's or New Yorks, they'll win the division thanks to the bats. In fact, if they do, indeed, have five 3s, they'll win by 8 games. The fear is that Masterson and Kelly might not be even that good.
Maybe booker can start a poll to see who's dream is better or the best if you will. You both like GoodGirls (and every other agency or at least have nothing against GG's or the others, like 99.9% of Merb) so it will be a fair poll. 
but more importantly :lol:
I had a dream as well but it involved women not baseball players, you guys need to get your priorities straight.
PS. Joe, make that starting five in bawstin more like three #3's and two #4's or even #5's.
but more importantly :lol:I had a dream as well but it involved women not baseball players, you guys need to get your priorities straight.
PS. Joe, make that starting five in bawstin more like three #3's and two #4's or even #5's.
Hey Joe, we know how hooked on ST stats you are. Howcum nothing about Dellin Betances giving up runs in each of his last four outings, his fastball a miserable 92 mph? Joe? Joe? You here, Joey boy?
Boy did Pineda look absolutely filthy out there today pitching a shutout, I'd say that he is ready for the season to start, meanwhile Buchholz(who is Boston's number 2) was shaky as usual.
Here is an explanation of WHIP for pitchers, not good if you are named Clay Buchholz.
http://www.predictem.com/mlb/whip.php
Here is an explanation of WHIP for pitchers, not good if you are named Clay Buchholz.
http://www.predictem.com/mlb/whip.php
Maybe booker can start a poll to see who's dream is better or the best if you will. You both like GoodGirls (and every other agency or at least have nothing against GG's or the others, like 99.9% of Merb) so it will be a fair poll.
.
I luv the luv Iggy .
And maybe organize the best party for the best Dreamer !:lol:
I luv the Yanks
Cheers
Booker
Either Pineda is one of the dumbest people on the planet or he wasn't aware of the rules, I'm thinking that it was the latter, as if he would go on the mound in front of the whole world to see him with Pine tar on his neck, you would think that he would have done a better job of hiding it instead exposing it in a place that was so easy to see.
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