Coronavirus
- Thread starter C.B. Brown
- Start date
It's one of those rare moments where we agree with each other.
Just a couple of points. The 3.2% is assuming that everyone that has been exposed to Covid-19 has had a test to confirm this as well as confirming that all Covid-19 related deaths are accurately recorded. Since there's no way to really know either of these numbers especially with the lack of testing it's safe to assume its inaccurate. Your math is correct as well as Cloudsurf's calculation. But, the data is not and that's why you would need to do this evaluation at the end of the pandemic and not during. The .04% is the generally accepted number when looking at the pandemic as a whole. That's the same way you get the annual flu numbers. Even this way of calculating is assuming that all Covid-19 related deaths are accurately recorded.
If your trying to figure out the death rate of people that have been exposed to Covid-19 you'll have to wait for it to be over so you can get an accurate measurement. Or at least that's how it was done for the Spanish Flu pandemic. Lastly, during the Spanish Flu epidemic (which Covid-19 isn't even close) the percentage was 2.5% and 50 million + deaths. Which is why the 3.2% number isn't accurate. If it was, you would have deaths in the hundreds of millions.
Sene your percentage numbers are only a snapshot that will change tomorrow. Come back to this post in December when your first line percent will drop from 3.2% to around 2% and the .04% will be over 1% .
In my opinion there will be 400,000 deaths in the US, before a viable and safe vaccine will have started to destroy this virus.....in a best case scenario.
Also the border will remain shut till after New Years.
I wouldn`t shed any tears for Walooo there are so many hot chicks in Manhatten getting tired of isolation and looking to cheat on their magic wands.
In my opinion there will be 400,000 deaths in the US, before a viable and safe vaccine will have started to destroy this virus.....in a best case scenario.
Also the border will remain shut till after New Years.
I wouldn`t shed any tears for Walooo there are so many hot chicks in Manhatten getting tired of isolation and looking to cheat on their magic wands.
If your 1% holds true there will be hundreds of millions of deaths. I don't think we are anywhere near that yet. Yes, plenty of out of work SP's looking to do some banging in NYC.
Cloudsurf, 400,000 deaths, I find that exaggerated, because I think we will probably have a vaccine in the first months of the year.
With Trump's change of course, there won't be another 250,000 additional deaths.
And I think the border will be reopened before 2021, but with a lot of restrictions.
And also I would like to know if Thegreatwalooo, has started to dip his brush again?
Sene baby you are right we are no longer in 1918 , yet we haven`t learnt much besides washing our hands and social distancing . And like in 1918 its not always followed. In some ways we are worse off. Travel by plane spreads the virus much faster than travel by boat. Most of South America, Africa and India/Pakistan hasn`t felt the worse of it yet. A pending second wave in Europe and Australia is almost certain.
We are in a world recession /depression (except for China).....something that didn`t happen in 1918/20.
Yup many vaccines are on their way in the next several months so let`s keep our fingers crossed and hope that some of them work.
We are in a world recession /depression (except for China).....something that didn`t happen in 1918/20.
Yup many vaccines are on their way in the next several months so let`s keep our fingers crossed and hope that some of them work.
If you read the book “The Great Influenza” you’ll see that there are many comparisons to the current pandemic even the use of Clorox injections during the Spanish Flu was something that actually happened. Medically we are in a much better place, but the crowded spaces and lack of the basics like washing hands and covering your mouth when coughing is still an issue. The death rate was far worse and the influenza virus mutated giving us a real 2nd and 3rd wave. Covid 19 hasn’t mutated yet and it typically doesn’t. We have a long way to go before Americans are allowed anywhere outside of the USA.
30-40 million deaths world wide by the end of the winter cloudy?? Where r u getting that # from? Or did I misread?
Brits believe they have a special immunity from Covid due to drinking lots of tea. It's believed that the tea flushes the Covid out of their bodies.
Let's see 30-40 million deaths.
655,000 dead and lots of countries in recession, I can't imagine with 30-40 million.
We are no longer in 1918, science is very advanced.
Cloudsurf, do you have the good stuff that you smoked? I will take some !!
Did the U.K. get Covid-19 under control or eliminated entirely?
There is one cute brunette lady standing by a cop who has a mask on, but I am having trouble finding mask wearers or social distances in these photos.
Beach brawls erupt across the UK as thousands flock to the seaside on hottest day of the year
Police were forced to intervene in Bournemouth, Wales and Scotland when some sun-seekers got into fights.www.yahoo.com
If you want to tickle my gonads, by all means, just ask.
Beaches in England suck. Those crowds should be dispersed just based on that notion and nothing else
It’s same shit as what’s goin down in jersey in USA with the house parties and boat parties in LI
U.K. is not without problems, and i must say Trump is not one of them
Boris Johnson Pauses U.K. Reopening Amid New Rise In Covid-19 Cases
The U.K.’s cases are increasing for the first time since May, as countries around the world experience a new resurgence of Covid-19.
www.google.es
I was able to search google and cherry pick this one as well
Covid-19 news: Moderna’s omicron booster has promising immune response
A regular round-up of the latest coronavirus news, plus insight, features and interviews from New Scientist about the covid-19 pandemic
www.newscientist.com
Toodle-Lee-dooo
Think everyone made interesting points about coronavirus deaths. Medical technology is far more advanced than during the Spanish Flu.
On the flip side, the world population during Spanish Flu (1918-1920) was abt 1.7 Billion vs 7.5 Billion now with much of today’s population in developing, 3rd world countries where income inequality is huge and the poor over there receiving only marginally better medical care than in 1918-1920.
Take India, Indonesia & Pakistan for example; Coronavirus situation is really really bad over there. If the poor in those countries don’t work, they don’t even have money to eat so social distancing is not an option. Even the local media doesn’t cover the dire situation because what’s the point? Not going to change anything except make the police crackdown harder on the poor or scare away much needed foreign tourists & investors. Corruption & incompetence r so entrenched in their governments that a change of political leadership just means paying the same bribes to a different person.
But the healthcare systems haven’t collapsed in these countries simply because the admission price to enter a hospital increases, the greater the demand. A distopian version of free market economics. It’s a fact of life there, that if u r critically ill & don’t have the money to be admitted to a hospital, u just go home to die. Unlikely that those governments count these deaths.
So the combined present-day population of just India, Indonesia, Pakistan alone is about 1.7 Billion, roughly the same as the world population during Spanish Flu (1918-1920). So do the math and it’ll be apparent that unreported coronavirus deaths worldwide are already in the millions & Africa hasn’t really been hit that hard yet. Tens of millions seems like & will hopefully be an overestimate but regardless, at the end of all this, the eventual coronavirus death toll will be a shocking number to all.
On the flip side, the world population during Spanish Flu (1918-1920) was abt 1.7 Billion vs 7.5 Billion now with much of today’s population in developing, 3rd world countries where income inequality is huge and the poor over there receiving only marginally better medical care than in 1918-1920.
Take India, Indonesia & Pakistan for example; Coronavirus situation is really really bad over there. If the poor in those countries don’t work, they don’t even have money to eat so social distancing is not an option. Even the local media doesn’t cover the dire situation because what’s the point? Not going to change anything except make the police crackdown harder on the poor or scare away much needed foreign tourists & investors. Corruption & incompetence r so entrenched in their governments that a change of political leadership just means paying the same bribes to a different person.
But the healthcare systems haven’t collapsed in these countries simply because the admission price to enter a hospital increases, the greater the demand. A distopian version of free market economics. It’s a fact of life there, that if u r critically ill & don’t have the money to be admitted to a hospital, u just go home to die. Unlikely that those governments count these deaths.
So the combined present-day population of just India, Indonesia, Pakistan alone is about 1.7 Billion, roughly the same as the world population during Spanish Flu (1918-1920). So do the math and it’ll be apparent that unreported coronavirus deaths worldwide are already in the millions & Africa hasn’t really been hit that hard yet. Tens of millions seems like & will hopefully be an overestimate but regardless, at the end of all this, the eventual coronavirus death toll will be a shocking number to all.
To determine the death rate of a disease, why would you do anything other than divide the number of deaths by the number of people who have been infected with the disease?
I had never seen it from that angle.
Thank you for making me realize this whole problem.
because you will never know how many were actually infected with the disease seeing as many don’t show any symptoms or very mild ones which will not get reported and it is highly dependent on how much testing you do.
A country that does millions upon millions of tests will likely have a lower death rate.
For me it is much more realistic to know how many people die per million of population, even that is not totally accurate as some deaths that aren’t covid cases may be recorded as such as well as some that are will be assessed to other causes.
This however will show more realistically if that country is keeping things relatively under control.
I drink and I know things
Let`s revisit these posts in March 2021and see where we are at.
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why should we go back in time? We should move forward, not back. We were still dealing with H1N1 in 2011. Covid hadn't been created yet.
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