The 2020 Draft - Who's in, Who's out?

[Valcazar]

Figured I should split this off from the Midterms thread since now we are in the post-midterm period. (We're gonna need a 2019 Canada thread soon enough, too.)

Lots of speculation on who might run - especially on the Democratic side. Still some talk of a primary against Trump, but I haven't seen a lot of evidence of it. There are even more rumours of an independent run than I've heard in many a year. (I fully expect a Libertarian and a Green as usual, especially after their improvement last time.)

I know we won't be able to avoid some arguments about candidates and deeper issues, but if possible I want this to be more about who looks like they are making moves to be in or out, and what some strengths and weaknesses of theirs might be, etc.

Preliminaries underway, we get to eliminate someone right off (which is what made me think of doing this): Michael Avenatti is OUT.

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1070000911559192577

He always struck me as a vanity candidate who didn't really have any upside or natural base of support, so this doesn't surprise me too much.

 

[Valcazar]

John Delaney (D) - Officially Declared

John Delaney declared last year.

To me, the fact that basically no one remembers that (I sure didn't when I said Ojeda was the first to declare just after the midterms) is pretty solid evidence he isn't going to get very far in my opinion.

He represents the 6th Congressional District in Maryland and that is about all I know about him.

 

[Valcazar]

Richard Ojeda (D) - Officially Declared

Richard Ojeda announced right after the midterms.

He lost his bid to get West Virginia's 3rd District (I think he is still a State Senator there.). He was a Bernie Sanders guy who then voted for Trump in 2016, which I suspect will hurt him in the primaries. However, he made up 30+ points in a district that wen +49 for Trump in 2016, and can say he is directly appealing to the rural voters the Democrats have been losing. He has the military veteran thing going for him, and he was big in the Teacher's strike there. He is good at articulating his positions, which come off as populist-progressive "protect the little guy" approaches.

I think he will make some noise, and may fill up the "just a simple guy trying to do what's right" lane.

 

[Valcazar]

Marianne Williamson (D) - Formed an Exploratory Committee

A new-age guru and writer of self-help books has filed with the FEC to allow official fundraising.
https://marianneforamerica.com/

No, I don't take her seriously and assume this is just a scam to get money.

 

[Valcazar]

Patrick Duval is out. Not surprising. I had forgotten he had even talked about running. I still feel it is going to be a crowded field, but I'm starting to think that in light of the strong midterm showing, people who were more of a "why not run since everything is chaos" are going to drop off because the core 8-10 are going to be very difficult to dislodge and have a lot of support.

 

[Valcazar]

Julian Castro (D) - Has formed an Exploratory Committee

https://youtu.be/j9EdmaN-pZ4

Pros - Young, Texan, Latino. Has experience under Obama and has been considered a high-flying up and comer for a while now. (He was on the short list for Clinton VP.)

Negatives - Lack of experience. He's young, he has been a mayor, but a lot of people think he is kind of a Trudeau - very pretty but without a lot of substance.

 

[Valcazar]

Elizabeth Warren (D) - Has formed an exploratory comittee

Probably the first real "Big Name" announcement. (Castro is sort of second tier.)

Pros: She's got serious policy chops and national name recognition since people were floating her name back in 2016. She's got a solid link to the more progressive side of the Dems, to the point it is often called the "Sanders/Warren wing".

Cons: She's older, and that's something a lot of people are going to have a problem with. She doesn't seem to be a great campaigner from what I've seen, she is more a wonk. And, obviously, they've already built in a whole line of attack on her with the Native American thing, which is all the press will talk about instead of her policy.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Age shouldn't matter anymore. Donald Trump is the oldest fucking President in history and he may get re-elected!!!

 

[jalimon]

doc Reagan was older. He was senile thats why he was not as dangerous as Trump who is only affected by extreme idiocy.

cheers,

 

[cloudsurf]

Wat yo talkin bout jali .

Reagan was younger than Trump when elected to his first term. Reagan was an accomplished president and only turned senile after his second term.

Yes he was dangerous...… but only to drug dealers and the Soviet Union. He kept America great...… unlike that nut job who calls himself the greatest.

 

[cloudsurf]

I would like to see Biden nominated for Prez with O`Rourke as his running mate for VP.


Second choice Bloomberg and whoever the fuck he wants to pick for running mate.

 

[Valcazar]

Age shouldn't matter anymore. Donald Trump is the oldest fucking President in history and he may get re-elected!!!

But it *will* be an issue. Especially in the primary on the Dem side, it is going to be important - both for "look how fucking terrible Trump is and he is old" and also for "We need new blood and new leadership." So it is going to be a factor held against her in the primary, although if it ends up her vs Trump, it will become a non-factor as you say.

I would like to see Biden nominated for Prez with O`Rourke as his running mate for VP.

Second choice Bloomberg and whoever the fuck he wants to pick for running mate.

Biden is almost certainly going to run, but he hasn't even made noises about it yet. He has the age problem, of course, and his history of being just terrible on the actual campaign trail. (I think he has won a total of 3 delegates in all the primaries he ran in combined. ) He will have the name recognition of being the former VP now, but I honestly don't expect him to do much better than he did before.

I'm still not convinced Bloomberg will run. He strikes me as someone who doesn't like to compete unless he knows he will win, and the fact he has skipped parties a bunch of times will be held against him. He's also even older than Trump. But he sure looks like he will try a run as a Democrat if he does try and not go straight at an independent run.

(And I do think Beto is a very likely VP choice for just about anyone. He may not run himself, but I could easily see him as the VP pick for lots of people.)

Age shouldn't matter anymore. Donald Trump is the oldest fucking President in history and he may get re-elected!!!

But it *will* be an issue. Especially in the primary on the Dem side, it is going to be important - both for "look how fucking terrible Trump is and he is old" and also for "We need new blood and new leadership." So it is going to be a factor held against her in the primary, although if it ends up her vs Trump, it will become a non-factor as you say.

 

[Valcazar]

Biden has been making noises for a while, but I think in his heart he knows he shouldn't do it. He will get crucified on his pre-Obama record, and has the age thing against him as well. He might poll well in the general, but I think he gets crushed in the primary. The fact Obama won't endorse him is also going to be a big deal.

 

[jeff teliska]

Yes , he will be crucified for his handling of the Anita Hill case , we are still in the Me Too era so he will have lots of mansplaining to do.
Kamala Harris (from Westmount High by the way ) who I think Obama will endorse , would destroy him in a Democratic debate if it were to come to the Thomas nomination.
Time to let it go Joe.

 

[Valcazar]

Kamela is starting to actively drop hints but hasn't announced yet.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Right now my money's on Beto O'Rourke to be the democratic party nominee. I love Biden but i'm getting tired of these old recycled politicians who more often than not live in old aged homes at their age. Same thing with Bernie & half the Senate. Get out of politics & enjoy your final years living in peace with your loved ones! Leave politics for the younger generations and their new ideas & solutions! Out with the old, in with the new!

 

[Valcazar]

Looks like Tulsi Gabbard is making noise as well. That should be interesting, as she is very good at opportunistic politics based on choosing sides. (She got a lot of press for her big DNC rejection and siding with Bernie early.) While I don't think she has much of a chance, I think she will do really well in terms of media buzz and get a small solid fan base that will spend a lot of time attacking other candidates. What will be interesting will be if she replaces Bernie in this role, or if the two of them end up fighting each other.

Doc, as I said before, I see Beto more likely as a VP pick for someone else. But if he does run, I think he will be a contender.

 

[Valcazar]

And Kirsten Gillibrand is official, so is Gabbard.

Gillibrand is going to be an interesting case. She gets cast as Hilary 2.0 all the time, and there is a group that blames her for Al Franken. She has strong Anti-Trump cred (she voted against his appointments).

I don't know if she has any hook to stand out, since there are going to be at least three women in the race, and probably five or six - Warren has the policy wonk vibe, Harris has the former prosecuter schtick (plus WOC), Gabbard has the "I am against the establishment"/"controversial" angle. I think Gillibrand might just get lost in the shuffle.

The men who want to be major contenders are going to have to get in soon (Biden. Brown, Booker, Bernie).

 

[Valcazar]

Add Kamela Harris, as the other thread mentioned. She will be a major player, especially with California so early.

And add Pete Buttigieg. https://www.peteforamerica.com

I think he is basically running for VP, but young, white, rural, veteran, and gay is a pretty solid mix some people will be interested in.

 

[voxclamantis]

biden is stupid like a piece of wood.


TRUMP TRUMP AND ONLY TRUMP!