The miserable US$ to C$ exchange rate
- Thread starter jackyo8193
- Start date
Yes, thank you very much Captain Renault for doing the legwork:thumb::smile:
I feel the pains of my relatives who live in TO and elsewhere in beautiful Canada who cannot visit us in the States because it's painfully expensive for them to travel to the States.
So my dear American friends it's time to fill up your pockets of colorful Canadien money !!! Same thing to the Canadian citizen trade all your us to cdn$ . The oil crisis du to Iran who is going to be able to sell petrol to the west and China economy who is suffocating under a thick smog .....
Happy hobbying Yankees !
Happy hobbying Yankees !
Before anyone gets excited about this forecast, just keep in mind what my friend Rick Blaine always used to say: "There's one thing that's very hard to predict, and that's the future."
Loonie set for unprecedented plunge to 59 cents U.S., top forecaster warns
|January 12, 2016 6:22 PM ET
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
The currency fell as much as 0.6 per cent to 69.90 U.S. cents Tuesday in Toronto,, the first time it touched that level since May 2003, as crude oil fell to a 12-year low of US$29.93 per barrel in New York.
The top forecaster of the Canadian dollar said the currency will fall to a record 59 U.S. cents by the end of the year as further weakness in the energy sector saps growth in an economy already stretched by a heavily indebted consumer and the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates for a third time.
Who wins, and who loses, from the loonie's nosedive
The call from Macquarie Group Ltd.’s David Doyle, the top-ranked forecaster for the U.S. versus Canadian dollar exchange rate last year according to Bloomberg rankings, comes as the currency fell below 70 U.S. cents Tuesday for the first time in almost 13 years. The currency’s tumble to levels last seen in the late 1990s came as crude continued to reach multiyear lows.
“You could imagine the situation is worse today than in the 1990s,” Doyle said.. “We’re much more dependent on oil now than we were in the past.”
Macquarie was among the first major forecasters to predict the currency would hit these levels. A 59 U.S. cent Canadian dollar would mean one U.S. dollar buys C$1.69
The currency fell as much as 0.6 per cent to 69.90 U.S. cents Tuesday in Toronto,, the first time it touched that level since May 2003, as crude oil fell to a 12-year low of US$29.93 per barrel in New York. The first time the Canadian dollar weakened below 70 U.S. cents was 1997, before the country’s oil industry took off and when its government was wrestling with a budget deficit.
It mostly traded below 70 U.S. cents between 1997 and 2003, a period when manufacturing made up a larger part of exports than oil. It’s all-time low was 61.76 U.S. cents in 2002.
Canada’s newly elected Liberal government has pledged to run deficits to help stimulate an economy hindered by the collapse in prices for crude, until last year the country’s biggest export, and consumer spending held back by near-record debt levels.
Even though Doyle predicted Canada’s central bank will cut its benchmark rate to a record low 0.25 per cent on Jan. 20, a weakened manufacturing sector and more competition from Mexico in the U.S. market, Canada’s largest trading partner, mean it will take longer for the country to see an economic benefit with oil prices still depressed.
Once the loonie reaches its record low, it will stay depressed through the end of 2018, Doyle said.
“Manufacturing and non-energy exports have far less ability to propel the economic outlook than they have in the past,” Doyle said. “Many of our oil and oil-related sectors have grown, and a lot of our manufacturing sectors have not grown and remained low.”
Bloomberg News
Loonie set for unprecedented plunge to 59 cents U.S., top forecaster warns
|January 12, 2016 6:22 PM ET
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
The currency fell as much as 0.6 per cent to 69.90 U.S. cents Tuesday in Toronto,, the first time it touched that level since May 2003, as crude oil fell to a 12-year low of US$29.93 per barrel in New York.
The top forecaster of the Canadian dollar said the currency will fall to a record 59 U.S. cents by the end of the year as further weakness in the energy sector saps growth in an economy already stretched by a heavily indebted consumer and the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates for a third time.
Who wins, and who loses, from the loonie's nosedive
The call from Macquarie Group Ltd.’s David Doyle, the top-ranked forecaster for the U.S. versus Canadian dollar exchange rate last year according to Bloomberg rankings, comes as the currency fell below 70 U.S. cents Tuesday for the first time in almost 13 years. The currency’s tumble to levels last seen in the late 1990s came as crude continued to reach multiyear lows.
“You could imagine the situation is worse today than in the 1990s,” Doyle said.. “We’re much more dependent on oil now than we were in the past.”
Macquarie was among the first major forecasters to predict the currency would hit these levels. A 59 U.S. cent Canadian dollar would mean one U.S. dollar buys C$1.69
The currency fell as much as 0.6 per cent to 69.90 U.S. cents Tuesday in Toronto,, the first time it touched that level since May 2003, as crude oil fell to a 12-year low of US$29.93 per barrel in New York. The first time the Canadian dollar weakened below 70 U.S. cents was 1997, before the country’s oil industry took off and when its government was wrestling with a budget deficit.
It mostly traded below 70 U.S. cents between 1997 and 2003, a period when manufacturing made up a larger part of exports than oil. It’s all-time low was 61.76 U.S. cents in 2002.
Canada’s newly elected Liberal government has pledged to run deficits to help stimulate an economy hindered by the collapse in prices for crude, until last year the country’s biggest export, and consumer spending held back by near-record debt levels.
Even though Doyle predicted Canada’s central bank will cut its benchmark rate to a record low 0.25 per cent on Jan. 20, a weakened manufacturing sector and more competition from Mexico in the U.S. market, Canada’s largest trading partner, mean it will take longer for the country to see an economic benefit with oil prices still depressed.
Once the loonie reaches its record low, it will stay depressed through the end of 2018, Doyle said.
“Manufacturing and non-energy exports have far less ability to propel the economic outlook than they have in the past,” Doyle said. “Many of our oil and oil-related sectors have grown, and a lot of our manufacturing sectors have not grown and remained low.”
Bloomberg News
While monitoring my own trades..... went as high as 1.436 intraday.
It would be hilarious if it goes to 1.51 back to the days of 2000. When I first discovered Montreal in my college days.
Don't know what the future would hold but I can definitely tell you this. Personally I am going to hold off on regular civilian relationships for a good while where I am going to really enjoy this hobby. Once the weather becomes warmer I have to make a few trips up north.
It would be hilarious if it goes to 1.51 back to the days of 2000. When I first discovered Montreal in my college days.
Don't know what the future would hold but I can definitely tell you this. Personally I am going to hold off on regular civilian relationships for a good while where I am going to really enjoy this hobby. Once the weather becomes warmer I have to make a few trips up north.
While it's nice for me to be able to see a couple of more SP's because of the stronger US$, I end up paying more for at least food and other necessities when I'm in Montreal. So, too much of a good thing for one comes at the expense of others. Unfortunately, it's not always a win-win situation for everyone. Maybe "lawmakers" will remove some restrictions to make Canadian tourism a lot more attractive for at least Americans.
Here's a Bloomberg article that hits home for even hobbyists.
January 13, 2016 — 8:33 AM PST
It is often said that a free-floating currency acts as a shock absorber.
But when Canadians go shopping for groceries these days, they're getting nothing but the shock—sticker shock, that is.
On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar, commonly known as the loonie, broke below 70 U.S. cents for the first time since May 1, 2003.
For America's northern neighbor, which imports about 80 percent of the fresh fruits and vegetables its citizens consume, this entails a sharp rise in prices for these goods. With lower-income households tending to spend a larger portion of income on food, this side effect of a soft currency brings them the most acute stress.
James Price, director of Capital Markets Products at Richardson GMP, recently joked during an interview on BloombergTV Canada that "we're going to be paying a buck a banana pretty soon."
From coast-to-coast-to-coast, Canadians have taken to social media to express displeasure with soaring produce prices:
While some Canadians might think this is a regional phenomenon ...
... folks in the northern parts of the Great White North have the most cause to cry foul:
Some gripe about the grapes (gr-eh-pes?) of wrath:
And others are getting a tad hyperbolic about the situation:
The currency's meltdown has even gone mainstream. Take this, Conan O'Brien:
There is perhaps no more fitting emblem for the theme of imported inflation than fresh fruits and vegetables.
That's because the scope for import compression and import substitution—reducing inbound shipments in response to a lower currency, or producing those goods domestically—is more limited than for other categories. It's less disruptive to people's lifestyles to forego buying a new Maytag washer than to change their diets. Moreover, climate constraints render it highly unlikely that large-scale production of all the fruits and vegetables Canadians eat could occur with any reasonable degree of efficiency.
As Can-sternation about the low loonie mounts, however, it's essential to look at the counterfactual. A scenario in which the Bank of Canada were to hike interest rates or intervene in currency markets to support the value of the loonie would reduce the attractiveness of the nation's good and services on the world stage.
The lower Canadian dollar has been supporting foreign demand, which in turn sustains domestic production, employment, and aggregate income.
This dynamic has helped the labor market remain surprisingly resilient amid the collapse in crude prices, with annual employment growth stronger in 2015 than it was in either of the two previous years.
So while groceries may be more expensive, the wherewithal of Canadians to purchase them has been, at least in many cases, diminished, not destroyed.
Here's a Bloomberg article that hits home for even hobbyists.
January 13, 2016 — 8:33 AM PST
It is often said that a free-floating currency acts as a shock absorber.
But when Canadians go shopping for groceries these days, they're getting nothing but the shock—sticker shock, that is.
On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar, commonly known as the loonie, broke below 70 U.S. cents for the first time since May 1, 2003.
For America's northern neighbor, which imports about 80 percent of the fresh fruits and vegetables its citizens consume, this entails a sharp rise in prices for these goods. With lower-income households tending to spend a larger portion of income on food, this side effect of a soft currency brings them the most acute stress.
James Price, director of Capital Markets Products at Richardson GMP, recently joked during an interview on BloombergTV Canada that "we're going to be paying a buck a banana pretty soon."
From coast-to-coast-to-coast, Canadians have taken to social media to express displeasure with soaring produce prices:
While some Canadians might think this is a regional phenomenon ...
... folks in the northern parts of the Great White North have the most cause to cry foul:
Some gripe about the grapes (gr-eh-pes?) of wrath:
And others are getting a tad hyperbolic about the situation:
The currency's meltdown has even gone mainstream. Take this, Conan O'Brien:
There is perhaps no more fitting emblem for the theme of imported inflation than fresh fruits and vegetables.
That's because the scope for import compression and import substitution—reducing inbound shipments in response to a lower currency, or producing those goods domestically—is more limited than for other categories. It's less disruptive to people's lifestyles to forego buying a new Maytag washer than to change their diets. Moreover, climate constraints render it highly unlikely that large-scale production of all the fruits and vegetables Canadians eat could occur with any reasonable degree of efficiency.
As Can-sternation about the low loonie mounts, however, it's essential to look at the counterfactual. A scenario in which the Bank of Canada were to hike interest rates or intervene in currency markets to support the value of the loonie would reduce the attractiveness of the nation's good and services on the world stage.
The lower Canadian dollar has been supporting foreign demand, which in turn sustains domestic production, employment, and aggregate income.
This dynamic has helped the labor market remain surprisingly resilient amid the collapse in crude prices, with annual employment growth stronger in 2015 than it was in either of the two previous years.
So while groceries may be more expensive, the wherewithal of Canadians to purchase them has been, at least in many cases, diminished, not destroyed.
I really envy you american who is coming to canada for spending in xxx service or else :eyebrows: ...Even if i am so close to the border....Damn the difference ...Almost 600 CD for 400 US...Unbelivable..:yield:
For me the low dollar is good as it boosts up our oil prices. I remember when the dollar was $0.68 and all was good in Canada, lots of work as exports were doing great, oil was at $16 a barrel and gas was cheap. Guessing greed took over when oil went to $140 and our dollar was par.
The title of this thread should be changed to "The Not so miserable US$ to C$ exchange rate" ..... A couple good friends from the states just got a beautiful modern 2 bedroom loft condo in a great area of downtown for $70CAD a night, taxes included = $49US per night!
I second that. How about closing this thread and creating a new on with the title suggested by Igna69xxx.
Did not want to post your entire quote. Of course the oil companies would prefer $100 barrel for the oil but when it tanks like this the exchange rate helps a lot. Production is down yes but the oil sands ( not TAR sands ) have put too much into it to stop production. All are trying to find ways to extract the oil cheaper into the pipelines, Cenovus and Suncor have a cost of between $20 to $30 extraction cost now and Cenovus is saying they are trying to get the cost down to $10.00, Production costs are down because it is now an employers market, the oil companies are now saying we have this work and will pay this amount to do it, take it or leave it, with thousands looking for work the jobs are being done.. As for shifting resources, there is no available energy source that is ready now to replace oil, look at Ontario and their go green, the province is almost bankrupt and the green way is not working. It is kind of stupid to shut down oil before an alternative is available. Canada should exploit the oil industry, pump out as much as possible, sell it overseas and bring some money into its coffers. When and if a cheaper alternative energy source is available then you slowly tune it down.
For myself I do not care if our dollar sits at $0.70, it keeps some of the provinces working even though the unions kill us with expensive costs and low productivity.
Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rate by 25 basis point next week. Unfortunately, for our Canadian friends who rely on imported goods and services, the Canadian dollar is likely to get weaker still. But a weaker Canadian dollar should help Canadian exporters.
I've always wanted to try moose meat. Where can I find a restaurant in Montreal that serves moose meat? Every time I ask for moose meat when I'm in TO and Montreal, waiters look at me strange. Maybe it does not taste good. (Eating delicious cooked moose meat is on my 2016 TDL.) I wonder if Canadians can begin exporting moose meat; the Canadian seafood industry should be helped my a weaker Canadian dollar, I hope.
I've always wanted to try moose meat. Where can I find a restaurant in Montreal that serves moose meat? Every time I ask for moose meat when I'm in TO and Montreal, waiters look at me strange. Maybe it does not taste good. (Eating delicious cooked moose meat is on my 2016 TDL.) I wonder if Canadians can begin exporting moose meat; the Canadian seafood industry should be helped my a weaker Canadian dollar, I hope.
Iranians will possibly get to sell their oil this weekend. More oil in the market. As it should be.
1.4565 as a high today. If the world markets continue this crappy slide with everyone running for the hills to the USD for safety this is going to go higher.
Yet with such fast rise enjoy while it lasts.
1.4565 as a high today. If the world markets continue this crappy slide with everyone running for the hills to the USD for safety this is going to go higher.
Yet with such fast rise enjoy while it lasts.
Here is an article from CDC business news that says the loonie will plunge to 59 cents against US dollar in 2016. That means the US to Canadian exchange rate would go to $1.69 which would be, by far, an all time high:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/macquarie-loonie-forecast-1.3401644
It looks like the "Canada For Sale" days of 2002 will be back this year!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/macquarie-loonie-forecast-1.3401644
It looks like the "Canada For Sale" days of 2002 will be back this year!
It may be great for all you Americans enjoying paying $120 for a $200 Indy hour. Have some compassion for the poor Canadian spending his winter in the sun having to pay $300 for a $200 South Florida Indy lady, along with just under 50% more for everything else. Our piss-poor Canada and Quebec Pensions certainly don't go very far.
Can anybody recommend an SP willing to discount her rate by 48.7%?
Can anybody recommend an SP willing to discount her rate by 48.7%?
ATTENTION: INDY COMPANION LADIES: This would work well for all you Indy girls...take a working vacation in South Florida. Do a special for Canadians paying in U.S.$$. You'll end up with your normal rate and be able to enjoy the sun/warmth/nightlife at the same time. It's a win-win for you. And the Canadian guys seeing you will really appreciate you by making you a regular when back home.
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