It's not conspiratorial in any way. It's just an observation on natural Fed bias. Common wisdom suggests that while the Fed rates will be active during an election year they will not go up or down as aggressively as they would in another year. The closer we get to election day the more likely they will wait it out until the election is over.
I asked the question about a soft-landing recession in late 2019. Okay, the Fed doesn't actually technically want a recession, but raising rates does slowdown the economy. Soft-landing is perhaps an imperfect but common description of the perfect world the Fed seeks when raising rates.
Occam's razor - Yes, the Fed hawks won this round in a divided committee. Perhaps the talk of raising rates twice next year is just that.......talk.
