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Doc Holliday

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Markets in a free fall

Today the DOW already fell more than 350 points. There are some good news: the stock market will only be open for half of the day due to the holidays.

On Friday the market had its worse week since 2008. December currently is the worse month since 1931. And now Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin is showing signs he may be panicking.

Isn't Trump great?? Hasn't he been just fabulous for the economy? :lol::lol::lol:
 

Doc Holliday

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You're thinking of Megyn Kelly. She ended up leaving Fox News during the Roger Ailes purge for harassment. She went to NBC news as they were trying to recruit more right wing people after Trump's win. (Unfortunately, their "liberal late night block" on MSNBC has their highest ratings, so they can't go as right wing as the boss wants them to.)

Megyn Kelly's contract was up and she took a bigger offer from NBC. She went where the money was. She wasn't fired nor did she leave because of Roger Ailes. She went for the money.
 

jalimon

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Markets in a free fall.................

American companies have bought back their stock in 2018 at an all time high. First it was a great time as they benefited from Trumps tax cut. Second because history shows company tend to do that before they see troubled time ahead. The result is great as it brought the value of their shares higher without increasing any revenue, without spending on their employees or investing on equipment or anything like that. The rich got even richer and the middle class who elected Trump did not gain anything. Actually many are now loosing healthcare and other benefit thanks to Trump.

The Tarif men Trump will continue chaos and destruction. He will achieve what Bannon wanted in the first place. To tear down the White House and destroy everything.

Cheers,
 

sambuca

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Megyn Kelly was fired by NBC in October. She was fired for saying she didn't see why children couldn't wear black faces for Halloween. It was the alleged reason. Her ratings sucked and NBC was embarrassed by her expensive hiring. I think she also pressed NBC to come clean on the Matt Lauer/MeToo debacle.

I thought she did a good job at Fox, but I think she benefited greatly from following Bill O'Reilly and the rest of the Fox stable. (see Doc's references above to horse faces).
 

Sol Tee Nutz

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Apr 29, 2012
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Look behind you.
.

Isn't Trump great?? Hasn't he been just fabulous for the economy? :lol::lol::lol:


“We’ve enjoyed low interest rates for so long, we’re having to deal with a little bit higher rates now, so the market is trying to figure out what that could mean for inflation,” said Darrell Cronk, head of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

The sharp decline in stocks last week short-circuited a robust start to the year that was spurred by strong global economic growth, solid company earnings and lingering enthusiasm for the GOP tax overhaul. Even with the pullback, the major indexes are still up more than 3 percent this year.

U.S. employers added a robust 200,000 jobs in January, slightly above market expectations for an 185,000 increase. Meanwhile wages rose sharply, suggesting employers are competing more fiercely for workers. The figures point to an economy on strong footing even in its ninth year of expansion, fueled by global economic growth and healthy consumer spending at home.

DON’T FREAK OUT:*Some people will panic on Monday and begin selling their stocks. Economists remain bullish on growth in the market and investors say people should not overcorrect because of what happen on Friday. A correction has been predicted for months.

RALLIES START SOON:*Market bottoms and the starts of rallies are often within days of each other. Investors Daily reported that 2015 was a prime example. Aug. 24 was the worst day (of the summer downturn). The market lost 4% that day alone. But Aug. 26 was one of the best days. Even if you managed to get out before the 24th, chances are you didn’t get back in for the 26th.” The price of guessing wrong is that your returns suffer compared with how you would have done if you had simply hung tough. Six of the 10 single best days in the market between Jan. 2, 1996, and Dec. 31, 2015, occurred within two weeks of the worst days, according to J.P. Morgan.


U.S. stocks dropped on Friday, and the market suffered its worst week in two years, as fears of inflation and disappointing quarterly results from technology and energy giants spooked investors. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped by more than 650 points.

Bond yields rose and contributed to the stock market swoon after the government reported that wages grew last month at the fastest pace in eight years. The Dow had its worst decline since June 2016, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index had its biggest one-day percentage drop since September 2016.

Even though Friday’s point drop was scary, the percentage decline wasn’t. At 2.5%, it wasn’t even close to the record, a 22.6% rout on Black Monday in 1987.


Stocks were also under pressure on Friday as crude oil prices plunged. West Texas Intermediate futures fell more than 6 percent to $51.03 per barrel, reaching their lowest level of the year.

"Tech stocks are under pressure once again but more troubling is that oil prices are collapsing," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "Lower oil prices are not a good sight for the economy."

"OPEC has indicated they're going to cut [production], but that's not helping. That's a bad sign," said Cardillo.

The drop sent the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) — which tracks the S&P 500 energy sector — down more than 3.1 percent. Shares of Concho Resources, EOG Resources and Devon Energy were among the biggest decliners in the XLE.


Yes, the stock market crash is due to Trump :faint:9
 

Valcazar

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@Doc Holliday. Sorry, I wasn't intending to imply she left specifically because of Ailes (although she did go on record that he harassed her). Just that it was around the same time. (It was six months later, but talk of her not renewing her contract started up shortly after.). But yes, she had become a big name, her contract was up, she wasn't super happy where she was (according to her statements at the time) and NBC offered big money. So she left. And, as sambica said, her NBC run was pretty disastrous, ratings wise.

Gonna agree with Sol Tee Nutz here that the stock market isn't the economy and while a crash sucks for people being hit by it, it isn't the end of the world.

Also, as many have noted, Presidents get too much blame and praise for the economy in general.
 

sambuca

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Stock market volatility is nothing new. The Fed wouldn't be raising interest rates if they thought the economy was weakening. There's also the adage attributed to Nobel winning economist Paul Samuelson "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions."

In my opinion as the Fed raised rates, it gave investors pause to consider stock valuations. The FANG stocks which were helping to drive the stock market indexes higher were at lofty levels. They have fallen much harder than the Dow Jones Index.

FANG - Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google (Alphabet) or FAANG adding Apple
 

sambuca

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American companies have bought back their stock in 2018 at an all time high. First it was a great time as they benefited from Trumps tax cut. Second because history shows company tend to do that before they see troubled time ahead. The result is great as it brought the value of their shares higher without increasing any revenue, without spending on their employees or investing on equipment or anything like that.

First, large corporations brought back a lot of overseas profits accumulated over several years and sitting in low tax domains.

Second, after corporations bought back stock where did the money go? Did it disappear into thin air?

The metric that is more important than stock repurchases is overall business investment. Not every corporation has re-investment opportunities that match their surplus cash. I'm pretty sure the tech juggernauts have a lot of surplus cash including overseas cash and have limited re-investment requirements.

Jalimon, in general I think the income tax cuts were unnecessary on top of corporate tax rates. However, the U.S. corporate tax rate was the highest in the industrial world. Even after the rate reduction, our corporate rate is still slightly higher than Canada. It's interesting that Canadians make comments about the U.S. without any self-awareness of Canada.
 

jalimon

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First, large corporations brought back a lot of overseas profits accumulated over several years and sitting in low tax domains.

Second, after corporations bought back stock where did the money go? Did it disappear into thin air?

The metric that is more important than stock repurchases is overall business investment. Not every corporation has re-investment opportunities that match their surplus cash. I'm pretty sure the tech juggernauts have a lot of surplus cash including overseas cash and have limited re-investment requirements.

Very interesting point indeed you bring up.

1. Yes they brought back a lot of overseas profit on which no tax were paid. That is one huge problem with globalization which is killing the middle class. You do not pay your fair due of tax where you consume the product.

2. Buying your own stock inflated the value of the shares. Thus it lead the market up. But this is fake... It's like a restaurant of a chain where the owner is only preoccupied by sales/profit per seat. Since 5 nights per week all seats are not filling up you simply close down tables (to have less seats) and boum sale/profit per seat go up and make the boss happy.. No value is added. Just the numbers looks good and may interest other investors.

3. Correct the important metric is business investment. And this is why we are leading to a most probable recession.

I wrote it before. I do not think Trump has anything to do with this turn of event. As he ad not much to do with the great market of his early tenure. He is just currently trying to manipulate whoever he can to avoid a recession because then he will have absolutely nothing else to brag about positively in his disastrous and chaotic administration.

Cheers,
 

Valcazar

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I think he also believes that the Fed is supposed to work for him (and that it did work for Obama, manipulating rates to make him look good), so the fact they aren't doing things when he tells them to must be an attempt to politically sabatoge him.

I kind of think Steve Mnuchin's weird "don't worry, the banks have lots of cash" tweet was actually because he was tryinf to sound out how the bigwigs would react if Trump fires the Fed chief.
 

Valcazar

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In other "Trump Angry! Trump Smash!" news, seems he finally was told that Mattis disrespected him on the way out; Trump has now said he will force Mattis out in January, instead of Feb 28 as Mattis said he would leave. That could just be a fit of pique, but Mattis made it clear he was staying on through some NATO meetings and congressional hearings so Trump couldn't mess with those. Trump might be very against that.
 

EagerBeaver

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This Mattis exit is a classic “don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out” termination situation. Reminds me of a boss I once had who would use those exact words when firing someone he really didn’t like.
 

sambuca

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Buying your own stock inflated the value of the shares. Thus it lead the market up. But this is fake... It's like a restaurant of a chain where the owner is only preoccupied by sales/profit per seat. Since 5 nights per week all seats are not filling up you simply close down tables (to have less seats) and boum sale/profit per seat go up and make the boss happy.. No value is added. Just the numbers looks good and may interest other investors.

Wall Street analysts are much more sophisticated than you believe. They're very adept at valuing companies with a lot cash on the balance sheet and that cash being used to buy back shares. There much more concerned about revenue growth trends and profit margins.

I'm sure I've heard some commentators say what you said about share buybacks artificially driving up shares. Generally, they are not the commentators at Bloomberg and CNBC. Sure most people would like to see large corporations take profits and re-invest in the business, hire more people and raise wages, but it's not really that direct of an equation. Many people with anti-business views are suspicious of dividends and share buybacks.

When Republicans were raving about annual bonuses for rank and file employees and Pelosi and other Dems were calling it crumbs, it was a lot of silly rhetoric from both sides. Putting pressure on the supply side of labor (i.e. low unemployment) is the best sustainable, organic way to raise wages/benefits (and of course higher productivity which just doesn't happen).
 

jalimon

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Many people with anti-business views are suspicious of dividends and share buybacks.

Your post is correct. And yes some people may be suspicious. I am not. I see it as what it is that's it. I would do the same if I was one of these CEO's. I would probably also rack up my own bank account. And yes I would have benefited big times from Trump's tax cut. They made billions while average middle class worker got on average about 30$ while loosing other social benefit. Thanks Trump!

I am not a big investor far from it. But I do like to see things as simplistic as possible so I understand what's going on. And what's going on is the market going down for quite a while and most probably going into a recession. I will only try to guess when will hit bottom so I can re-enter the market. Trump might make it longer then usual with his stupid intervention and tariff war. You see as crazy as it is the market is a bit leftist ;) The market likes social stability haha

Cheers,
 

Sol Tee Nutz

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Look behind you.
I see it as what it is that's it. I would do the same if I was one of these CEO's. I would probably also rack up my own bank account. And yes I would have benefited big times from Trump's tax cut. They made billions while average middle class worker got on average about 30$ while loosing other social benefit. Thanks Trump!

Cheers,

And there is the other side of the coin, people who were unemployed now have jobs and can live again 8nstead of just surviving.

Thursday's claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 8,000 to 1.62 million for the week ended Oct. 27, the lowest level since July 28, 1973. The four-week moving average of the so-called

continuing claims fell 7,500 to 1.63 million, the lowest level since Aug. 11, 1973.

Ongoing strong job growth has led to a 3.7 percent unemployment rate, the lowest since the 1960s and a level below Federal Reserve policymakers' current median estimate of "full employment."


Trudeau will cost the average family $1,000.00 with his carbon tax with job losses with businesses packing up or downsizing.
Trudeau is left wing so I guess that makes it alright, he can even grope and nothing is done.
Since I am Canadian what Trump does comes in second to what Trudeau does, for the economy I would take Trump over Trudeau any day.
 

anon_vlad

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It's easy to live high on credit, which is what the US is doing by doubling its deficit and beggaring your neighbours by refusing to honour your agreements. Just as with credit cards, it all comes crashing down. Judging by the stock market this last month, the end is near.
 

Doc Holliday

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Now Trump is considering firing Steve Mnuchin.

I guess it doesn't pay to marry a porn star.

Like Trump did Mnuchin should have stuck with marrying an escort.

Both women once loved to suck dicks but my money's always on the escort over the porn star.
 

sambuca

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Hey smartypants, is there something wrong with marrying an escort?
I'm sure some of the courtesans here would love to hear your opinions on the subject..
 
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