Herd immunity “maybe”
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.for...us-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/amp/
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.for...us-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/amp/
Coronavirus
- Thread starter C.B. Brown
- Start date
some of the papers i provided links to before discuss how its possible that the immune response to sars-cov-2 might be similar to influenza. which means that if a vaccine is found (a big if - more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-vaccine-when-will-it-be-ready), a new formulation might need to be administered every year
what is known is that a discernible immune response can be observed in symptomatic patients who managed to clear the virus for at least a few days. for example https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
the only convincing result so far that infection results in protective immunity is from this study with rhesus macaques that showed that when two of them were reexposed to sars-cov-2, covid-19 didn't develop: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1
question is will this immunity last? when it comes down to sars-cov-2 we don't know yet but there are some hints that it might be a challenge
already we know that respiratory rna viruses can evade the innate immune response: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6959104/pdf/jin-0012-0004.pdf
a study done with convalescent sera from people who were infected with sars (the closest virus to sars-cov-2) further shows that it was moderately neutralizing: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15562-9
we know that in people infected with sars the protective immunity doesnt last described here: https://www.jimmunol.org/content/186/12/7264.long
another issue is the potential of genetic drift. we already know that genetic drift occurs in human coronavirus OC43, a related virus which causes the common cold: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep11451
in a nutshell, it means through evolution the virus evades neutralizing antibodies that are generated after an infection. so somebody can get infected multiple time by the virus because the conformation of the major antigens keep changing. that's one of the reasons why people keep catching colds from that type of virus
its the one of the reasons that explains why every year we need a new flu vaccine. now at least the flu vaccine confers some protective immunity for a while. there are other viruses that the generation of neutralizing antibodies is not effective a producing a protective immunity because of genetic drift. hiv-1 is the best example i can think of
discussed here in the context of influenza: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1007291&type=printable
an example with hiv-1: https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/79/4/2097.full.pdf
hopefully the immune response to sars-cov-2 over time is different and infection confers lasting protective immunity but i have doubts
what is known is that a discernible immune response can be observed in symptomatic patients who managed to clear the virus for at least a few days. for example https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0819-2
the only convincing result so far that infection results in protective immunity is from this study with rhesus macaques that showed that when two of them were reexposed to sars-cov-2, covid-19 didn't develop: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1
question is will this immunity last? when it comes down to sars-cov-2 we don't know yet but there are some hints that it might be a challenge
already we know that respiratory rna viruses can evade the innate immune response: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6959104/pdf/jin-0012-0004.pdf
a study done with convalescent sera from people who were infected with sars (the closest virus to sars-cov-2) further shows that it was moderately neutralizing: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15562-9
we know that in people infected with sars the protective immunity doesnt last described here: https://www.jimmunol.org/content/186/12/7264.long
another issue is the potential of genetic drift. we already know that genetic drift occurs in human coronavirus OC43, a related virus which causes the common cold: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep11451
in a nutshell, it means through evolution the virus evades neutralizing antibodies that are generated after an infection. so somebody can get infected multiple time by the virus because the conformation of the major antigens keep changing. that's one of the reasons why people keep catching colds from that type of virus
its the one of the reasons that explains why every year we need a new flu vaccine. now at least the flu vaccine confers some protective immunity for a while. there are other viruses that the generation of neutralizing antibodies is not effective a producing a protective immunity because of genetic drift. hiv-1 is the best example i can think of
discussed here in the context of influenza: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1007291&type=printable
an example with hiv-1: https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/79/4/2097.full.pdf
hopefully the immune response to sars-cov-2 over time is different and infection confers lasting protective immunity but i have doubts
Interesting. I saw this on couple sources. The article says the person termed ‘patient zero’ is one among first 27 people who contracted this virus.Doc Holliday said:
Il semble bien dans le meilleur des scénarios que la reprise normale se fera en Juin ici comme aux States.......même Trump ----qui a retardé fin Avril la distanciation---semble finalement de cet avis.....son medical task force a finalement réussi à lui faire entendre raison........ cela nous permettrait enfin de retourner tranquillement à une vie normale et profiter de l'été.
i think trump was listening to EB's pulmonologist instead of the experts. by early march there was a chorus of epidemiologists warning of dire consequences and trump was still saying "its very mild" "i'm not concerned at all" it will go away. just stay calm. it will go away" of course even when people are dying, he is still entirely focused on trump "I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president." total buffoon. unfortunately, its not funny.
Thanks for posting and summaries! Much appreciated. I’ll get through them. Let’s hope if prior infection doesn’t provide long term immunity subsequent infections will be milder.
Cloud it's clear any scientist who were still doubting about the severity of the virus early March are completely disconnected from their practices field. That can also happen to older scientist who watch too much Fox and do not read enough publication from their own medical association.
Exactly. And doctors are human also & quite often wrong in their diagnostics. That's why people go to other doctors for second & third opinions. A few weeks ago the doctor at my job site wrote a memo trying to reassure everyone that the virus was 'very difficult to get from others'. I wrote a note on the memo which said "yeah, right...dumbass!" People who saw the memo chuckled at my note but i was being serious.
The problem at the time is that many doctors hadn't fully done the research as much as other regular people (such as myself) had done & simply relied on word-of-mouth from colleagues & what they heard on tv (e.g. Fox News). Trust me, doctors make a lot of mistakes also. They're profession often involves judgement & making a decision and they aren't always the right ones. They're human beings.
Republican Senator Rand Paul is a physician and he didn't wait to mingle with others, have dinner with colleagues & hang out at the gym for a week or two before he got his test results which indicated he had tested positive for COVID-19.
Leaving China, Russia and Iran asides as I do not trust these country at all. The USA seems to be by far the worst hit country of all. The US is testing less (per capita) then many other country yet still have the fastest positive infection cases by far. If you look at the rate per day it's very scary. Next was Italy. And Italy has one of the best healthcare system in the world, easily on par with the USA.
It’s not just Italy, northern Italy, Milan and especially Bologna have some of the best physicians and facilities anywhere.
What is the scene in MTL? R people listening to the stay @ home order or are you seeing people out and about other than groceries and the pharmacy?
Are there contingency plans for auxiliary hospital facility sites?
their changing some of the football and cricket pitches to hospitals soon here in UK
What is the scene in MTL? R people listening to the stay @ home order or are you seeing people out and about other than groceries and the pharmacy?
Are there contingency plans for auxiliary hospital facility sites?
their changing some of the football and cricket pitches to hospitals soon here in UK
there is a difference between clinicians and scientists. most clinicians have never been involved in research and may not be on top of recent research findings. also, they may be more swayed by anecdotal evidence than a scientist who has been subject to the rigors of actually "proving" something. fauci is a scientist and has been involved in research his entire career. he is surely on top of much of the research and would also know which experts in the research community to contact for advice.
This was NOT early March, as I said earlier, it was back in December. And I posted his opinion in the thread at the time it was made and nobody had any reaction to it back then. You included. I think the medical opinions changed from December to March, but it's my opinion that if the medical opinion had been universal back in December, we would be a lot better prepared for what happened. In any event we were not, so the finger pointing now doesn't solve anything. We have to move forward. And figure this thing out.
Fauci is both clinician and researcher I believe, he’s an infectious disease dr. Still sees patients I’m pretty sure. Clinicians or doctors have to maintain continuing education requirements that test them often on latest research and treatment trends or else they can’t maintain their certification with respective boards.
Clinicians who blew off covid-19 prob did so because they have never seen shit like this before. U can be a physician, extremely intelligent but have a mindset when ur not used to seeing anything anyone else has ever seen.
Its like Ivy League educated lawyers and judges who will tell you Trump did nothing impeachable, lol. Not trying to be political, but like covid-19, it’s shit no ones ever seen
Clinicians who blew off covid-19 prob did so because they have never seen shit like this before. U can be a physician, extremely intelligent but have a mindset when ur not used to seeing anything anyone else has ever seen.
Its like Ivy League educated lawyers and judges who will tell you Trump did nothing impeachable, lol. Not trying to be political, but like covid-19, it’s shit no ones ever seen
Quebec is doing a good job of restricting social interactions. The death rate is relatively low so far.
I went to a local grocery outlet last week and the measures taken where quite strict and stringent.
There was a security guard making sure that you sanitize your hands. Another sanitized your cart and only 1 peron was allowed in every minute. 2 meter distancing was mandatory at the cash where plexi-glass separations protected cashiers and customer from infecting each other. Everyone wore gloves and sanitizers were at every cash.
The border with NY is closed to all but essential travel. In any case, as I said... supply chains must remain operational.
If the supply chain didn't remain operational where would Quebec be getting its produce from right now?
Short term I really doubt it would be a big issue EB. The real problem is if the border remain close Agriculturist (or do we say cultivator?) will not be able to bring in the 15k mexican that come work in the fields in Quebec each year. That worries them much right now.
Que dire des pauvres américains qui sont maintenant premier dans le monde pour le nombre de cas de Coronavirus.
C'est Trump qui doit être content, il est le premier !!
J'ai peur que si Trump ne décréte pas des mesures sanitaires sévères applicables très rapidement à tous les États, il y a de très forts risques que la pandémie se généralise au lieu d'être confinée dans certaines grandes villes.
C'est Trump qui doit être content, il est le premier !!
J'ai peur que si Trump ne décréte pas des mesures sanitaires sévères applicables très rapidement à tous les États, il y a de très forts risques que la pandémie se généralise au lieu d'être confinée dans certaines grandes villes.
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