"Can the Yankees Now Afford to Go Get Masahiro Tanaka?
It's fine to discuss the weighty stuff about PEDs, namely the future of cheating and punishment in baseball, but right now, this is the big question. It's been two years to the day since ESPN's Jayson Stark published this terrific primer explaining the gigantic financial rewards the Yankees stood to reap if they could duck under the $189 million luxury tax threshold in 2014: $40 million on the conservative side, and potentially more. Horowitz's slightly convoluted ruling held that the Yankees would recoup 162 days worth of A-Rod's 2014 salary, but not a whole season's (183 days) worth. That's $22.13 million saved, with Rodriguez keeping $2.66 million in salary, plus a $3 million bonus. Rodriguez was scheduled to count $27.5 million against the Yankees' payroll this season, based on the average annual value of his 10-year, $275 million contract. That means the Yankees will save $24.34 million against the luxury tax limit in 2014.
So can the Yankees take that extra $24 million and land Japanese pitching phenom Masahiro Tanaka while still staying under the $189 million cap? Unlikely.
According to Yahoo's Jeff Passan, who polled Yankees execs before A-Rod's suspension, New York would have been on the hook for about $178 million in luxury tax commitments if A-Rod's entire luxury tax number got refunded for 2014. Others have floated a figure closer to $183 million. Add the $2.66 million in luxury tax relief that the Yankees did not get as a result of Horowitz's ruling, and, depending on which projection you buy, the likely luxury tax number nets out just under $181 million or just under $186 million. Either way, that would leave no way for the Yankees to get Tanaka at the expected market price and still sneak under $189 million.
Here's the other problem: Aside from pitching, the Yankees have two gigantic infield holes to fill with A-Rod out and Robinson Cano now in Seattle. The team has made some under-the-radar moves to try to address this, adding former Ray Kelly Johnson and longtime Oriole Brian Roberts to the major league roster, and signing once-promising A's and Tigers prospect Scott Sizemore to a minor league deal. The Yankees can hope that Johnson's lefty power plays well with the short porch in the Bronx, that Roberts somehow fights off years of injuries as he approaches his late-30s, and that Sizemore (still only 29) taps into the offensive potential that saw him post a .342 on-base percentage with 11 homers in 110 games three years ago, but none of these players are championship-quality talents. Even with the additions of Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, the Yankees probably can't afford to start subpar players at second and third while also carrying a potentially over-the-hill Derek Jeter and an aging Mark Teixeira; right now, the Yankees have one of the worst projected infields in the league.
Even if the Yankees didn't have to worry about filling other holes, they wouldn't have enough money to stay below the $189 million cap while landing the services of a 25-year-old pitcher who's the most sought-after commodity left on the market by a mile. If they do make moves to beef up the infield — whether by adding Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, or someone else — landing Tanaka while staying below the cap would become impossible.
The alternative is for the Yankees to instead sign Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez to a multiyear deal. Neither pitcher will come cheap, but the supposed price tags could get depressed enough by the attached draft-pick compensation to allow the Yankees to add one of them plus another infielder while still spending less than $189 million.
Even then, the Yankees would probably need some magnanimous team to take, say, Ichiro and his $6.5 million 2014 luxury tax off the books to allow the Yankees to add quality pitching help other than Tanaka. Not impossible, but still a tough proposition.
It's easy to argue against it. According to the Wall Street Journal’s Brian Costa, the Yanks lost nearly $60 million in ticket revenue alone in 2013. It turns out fans don't have much interest in watching half-decent, very old, kind of dull teams play for 81 games, even if those teams wear pinstripes. Though adding McCann, Beltran, and Ellsbury figures to help the Yankees a lot, the team lost one of the five best players in the league in Cano. There are questions about CC Sabathia and the previously reliable Hiroki Kuroda following a shaky second half last year — and those are the Yankees' top two projected starters right now. And of course, there's the always fierce competition in the AL East. The Red Sox are the defending world champions; the always tough Rays could be better this year with a full season of Wil Myers and some organic improvement for talented young pitchers like Chris Archer, Matt Moore, and Alex Cobb; the Orioles are coming off an 85-win season that tied them with the Yankees; and the Jays probably won't be that bad again in 2014.
