Election 2012: Will History repeat itself? Union National splits vote, PQ wins power.

[james t kirk]

Well, the fact of the matter my friend is that until 1976 Montreal was the biggest and baddest city in Canada. It's population was almost 2 million while Toronto's was about 1.5 million.

Now Toronto is 2.7 million and Montreal is 1.8 million. (Almost back to where you were 35 years ago.)

Maybe I don't get the same meaning from "numbers" like you do.

Perhaps you can explain how losing population so dramatically is good for a city.

 

[EagerBeaver]

I am an American, but pretty much every well educated and intelligent Anglo-Canadian I have spoken to has said the exact same thing to me as James T. Kirk in his post #39 in explaining the ascension of Toronto to financial capital of Canada, displacing Montreal.

The displacement is a fact, so there must be some reason for it.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Yesterday, i was in Toronto & walking to the Rogers Centre for the Jays/Yankees game. A few blocks from there, i believe on Wellington street, one of the buildings had a sign on it that read "Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec". I must admit that i was somewhat flabbergasted that they'd have their headquarters in Toronto, of all places.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Well, the fact of the matter my friend is that until 1976 Montreal was the biggest and baddest city in Canada.

Well, Montreal is still one of the baddest cities in the country. It seems that organized crime has it's fingers dipped into everything, and someone is getting murdered nearly every second day or so. Sure, there are murders (most gang-related) in Toronto also, but not at the same rate as Montreal & Toronto also happens to be at least twice the size of Montreal.

Toronto keeps getting bigger & bigger, it seems. I was walking along the waterfront this past weekend & couldn't believe the amount of new sky-rise buildings that have cropped up over the past couple of years. Same thing downtown. There's even a Trump Hotel & Tower that opened up a few months ago. If the Canadian economy is slow, Toronto sure doesn't seem to feel it.

 

[RobinX]

Sure, there are murders (most gang-related) in Toronto also, but not at the same rate as Montreal & Toronto also happens to be at least twice the size of Montreal.

Toronto keeps getting bigger & bigger, it seems. I couldn't believe the amount of new sky-rise buildings that have cropped up over the past couple of years. Same thing downtown. If the Canadian economy is slow, Toronto sure doesn't seem to feel it.

With all due respect, I would suggest that you check your facts:

1. The homicide rate per population is actually slightly lower in Montreal - 1.3 homicides annually per 100,000 people, compared with 1.4 for Toronto. Reference: Canadian homicide rates at 44-year-low, with drops in major cities

2. There is a construction boom going on in both Montreal and Toronto. Reference: Construction hits new heights in downtown Montreal

 

[RobinX]

"Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec". I must admit that i was somewhat flabbergasted that they'd have their headquarters in Toronto, of all places.

The headquarters of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec is located in Montréal. In actual fact, the real estate arm of the Caisse owns high rise towers and has offices in major cities in 24 countries, including the cities of Toronto and New York City. Reference: http://www.lacaisse.com/en

 

[Zatara]

Quite correct.



The separatist policies of Levesque drove hundreds of thousands of people down the 401 to Toronto.

Not only have they drove hundreds of thousands out of Quebec, they have kept hundreds of thousands if not millions of Canadians, Americans and others from moving to Quebec. Then they took in hundreds of thousands of french speaking immigrants from french speaking countries to suck off the welfare system.

Now Marois wants to have another referendum to drive property prices down just as the world is in an economic mess and property prices in Canada is set for correction.

 

[gugu]

Now Toronto is 2.7 million and Montreal is 1.8 million. (Almost back to where you were 35 years ago.)

Maybe I don't get the same meaning from "numbers" like you do.

Perhaps you can explain how losing population so dramatically is good for a city.

I do not calculate the well being of a nation according to its demographics or on "mine is bigger then yours" arguments. Both cities have qualities and bad sides. I don't want to get into methodology debates about interprovincial mobility, a quite complicated subject.

I will agree with you that there was a substantial movement of anglophones, and francophones as a matter of fact, to Toronto in the late sixties and through the seventies. It is a very complex issue involving economics, culture and the rise of a francophone elite in Québec. That migrations started way before the election of the PQ, in the late sixties. May I remind you that the first important language law in Québec was adopted by the liberal party. It was pretty broad: justice, public administration, business and, of course, education. The opposition of the english community to the law 22 was as harsh as it was for law 101. I agree that the election of the PQ in 1976 accelerated the movement. But IMHO, it was to happen anyway even under law 22. Politically, all parties in Québec support law 101 today. Some people decided to move somewhere else? So be it. Societies do not have to governed economic elites. But please do not suggest that voting for the liberals is better than voting for the PQ on that matter. Just like the PQ, the liberals are governed by the french political elite. Their policies on the language issues are not much different.

 

[Chigen]

I called up the PQ and asked when and where the early polls are, ( no crowds ) they told me. Then I told them I will go there on that day and vote Liberal!
You should have heard the woman scream on the other end of the line.

 

[Doc Holliday]

1 out of 4 Canadians outside of Quebec are fed up & willing to kick it out of Canada

OTTAWA - With the separatist Parti Quebecois leading the polls ahead of next month's Quebec election, a new survey says one in four in the rest of Canada are fed up and ready to kick Quebec out of Confederation.

In fact, just a bare majority of English-speaking Canadians outside Quebec would vote to keep Quebec in Canada in the event of another referendum crisis, Abacus Data says in a new poll provided exclusively to QMI Agency.

And despite being divided over whether Quebec should stay in or get out, English-speaking Canadians outside of Quebec overwhelmingly agree that Quebec should not be given special treatment even if that increases the risk of separation.

That finding could be trouble for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives if the PQ's Pauline Marois becomes premier and begins demanding more power and autonomy for her province.

"Canadians outside Quebec are likely to be opposed to any moves to placate Quebec," said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. "Intense Quebec/rest-of-Canada political conflict may once again be around the corner."

In an online survey, Abacus asked 1,795 English-language speakers living outside of Quebec how they would vote if all Canadians could vote in a referendum on the future of Quebec in Confederation.

Just 52% said they'd vote to keep Quebec in Canada while 26% would vote to remove Quebec. A further 22% said they were unsure of how they'd vote.

Albertans and supporters of the Conservative Party were far more likely to vote to kick Quebec out. Ontarians and supporters of the Liberal Party of Canada were much more likely to want to keep Quebec in Canada.

Though nearly 60 NDP MPs are from Quebec, only 60% of those who voted New Democrat last year would vote to keep Quebec in Confederation compared to 70% of those who voted Liberal and 48% of those who voted Conservative.

Meanwhile, young Canadians between the ages of 18 and 20 were most likely to say they weren't sure how they'd vote on Quebec's future.

And yet, though the rest of Canada is split on the referendum question, nearly 90% of all respondents said the federal government should not bend over backward to keep Quebec in Confederation and only 12% agreed with the statement: "The federal government should do all it can to keep Quebec part of Canada, even if it requires special treatment."

Opposition to that statement was near unanimous - 96% - among those who voted for a Conservative candidate in the last election.

Abacus drew the 1,795 survey participants from an online panel of more than 150,000 Canadians.

Abacus said it weighted the data for age, gender and other factors to mirror the latest Canadian census data. The pollster did not provide a margin of error for its results because panellists were not selected randomly. The margin of error for a randomly-selected panel of 1,795 is plus or minus 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2012/08/14/20100136.html

 

[EagerBeaver]

You guys need to help me think this through. Let's say PQ wins and Quebec declares itself as independent of the Canadian confederation.

Quebec takes in net more monies from the federal government than go out to the federal government, correct? Take that net surplus number, and tell me where that money will be made up once Quebec no longer has any incoming funds from the federal government? Will taxes have to be increased to make up this revenue?

If PQ is elected, is it going to change anything for me, the American tourist who occasionally visits Montreal?

 

[Sol Tee Nutz]

1 out of 4 Canadians outside of Quebec are fed up & willing to kick it out of Canada

I think it is higher than that. If/when the PQ get in power the rest of Canada will put up with none of the crap that was pulled before. " Gimmie this or we will seperate ". Leave!
Love Quebec but too many bad apples are going to run this province. It was going to take the Liberals many years to slowly get back on track after the PQ ruined it before ( billions of hidden debts ), people used to free or almost free services, you can not do that. There is lots of resources in northern Quebec, tap into it and create jobs. Liberals had a good plan for that. And I am from out west so I hate the liberals but the conservatives have no chance here. The PQ's new proposed language law of businesses over 10 employees must speak French will screw a lot of businesses. In the long run the province will suffer with a PQ or NDP government and the next choice is not much better. Right now Quebec is the highest taxed palce in north america, it is going to get worse. At least you have cheap school, beer and smokes... And the hottest escorts around

 

[Sol Tee Nutz]

If PQ is elected, is it going to change anything for me, the American tourist who occasionally visits Montreal?

The main effect it will have is on the people of Quebec and it will be a minus. You may get cheaper items in the future as businesses go bankrupt, beer and smokes may go up as they raise taxes. The Canadian dollar will drop when Quebec starts the referendum process.

 

[EagerBeaver]

You may get cheaper items in the future as businesses go bankrupt......... The Canadian dollar will drop when Quebec starts the referendum process.

Sounds good to me. If this means a return to the "Canada for Sale" Days of 2002-2003 when the exchange rate soared to over $1.50 CDN for $1.00 US, and the Hyatt was going for $50 a night on Priceline, then all I can say is "GO PQ!!!!"

 

[Techman]

You guys need to help me think this through. Let's say PQ wins and Quebec declares itself as independent of the Canadian confederation.

...

EB, even if the PQ wins, they can't unilaterally declare independance. They would have to hold a referendum with a CLEAR QUESTION this time to be able to break up the country. And don't start bringing logical arguments into the discussion about transfer payments and how much Quebec would be in the hole by having to assume their part of the Canadian National debt. These are things that most Quebecers have no idea about at all. In fact most of the separatists I speak to think that Quebec gives more money to Canada than they get back. Many others actually believe that the transfer payments will continue after separation. Facts are not relevant when talking about separation.

Gugu, if you think that the 1980 referendum was not a major cause of Quebec losing tens of thousands of people in the province and billions of dollars in tax revenue since then, you are living in a dream world.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Techman is correct. By the way, another positive from a hobbyist perspective "if Quebec would ever separate from Canada" is that due to the economy getting worse, there would likely be even more sp's out on the market.....and cheaper rates! The province of Quebec would literally become a sex haven & you'd see more & more quality sp's & agencies popping up in QC, Trois-Rivieres, Sherbrooke, Val d'Or & Saguenay.

I'd also like to add that when they Olympics started & the first Canadians to receive medals happened to be from Quebec, many Quebecers (likely separatists) stated that this proved that Quebec would do fairly well on the international level if it would ever separate from Canada. However, i'd like to point out that the main reason why those Quebec athletes even had a chance to make it to the Olympics was due to funding from the rest of Canada. There is no way in hell that Quebec alone could fund world-class athletes on its own. If Quebec would have separated from Canada 20 years ago, you wouldn't have any Emely Heymans, Alex Bilodeau, Joannie Rochette, etc. They never would have got the funding & training facilities/coaching needed to perform at an elite level had they not been part of Canada. Fact.

And why? Because the province of Quebec on its own is near-bankrupt & relies mostly on the rest of Canada to survive. It would only get worse if they would separate & be left on its own to survive economically. It would be a second-rate country 'at best' on the world economic level.

 

[pyjama guy]

Stop worrying about separation, never going to happen. True, over the years I lost many friends to Toronto and Vancouver due to separist fears but demographically they had their chance and it's gone, probably forever.. The majority of the younger generation sees and knows the importance of English to succeed and they also understand the clear benefits of Federalism. Don't worry, be happy!!!!!!

 

[Techman]

You just don't get it do you? I don't worry about separation ever coming to pass but the constant talk about it and using it as a constant thread against the federal government is terrible for business. You think Marois and her crap about preventing takeovers of Quebec companies by outside interests is good for business? You think her talk about increasing the provisions of the language law is good for business or tourism? These people are idiots, I don't know any other way to put it. The problem is that everyone in Quebec pays the price for their insular attitude and beliefs. And people like you with this don't worry be happy attitude are part of the problem, not the solution.

 

[EagerBeaver]

The last time there was a referendum didn't the Inuit peoples of northern Quebec threaten that if Quebec seceded, that the Inuits would also secede, or recede to the Canadian confederation? If so what happens to all of the resources in these resource-rich lands? Has anyone thought this situation through?

I believe that the Inuit nation would be called Nunavik. Anyone going to tell the Inuits that they need to speak French?

 

[sapman99]

Same old same old

Threat of separation, capital fleeing, Bill 101. Yadda yadda yadda

Québec has many choices. As Gugu correctly pointed out, the Liberals had already passed a pretty wide-sweeping French Language Law before the PQ formed the government in 1976 and passed 101. Through this time, no government has wanted to tamper much with 101 simply because public opinion is for it.

A lot of people frown upon this and I partly understand. Lets' look at it from an environmentalists' standpoint: the only significant territory in North America left with a "viable" French-speaking majority is Québec. Everywhere else is just "pockets", no matter which way you cut the cake. English rules in all the rest of Canada, fact. Because of sheer demographics, an even more so now with Web 2.0 and a globalization that is mostly taking place in English, it is time to take a good look at this.

A full-blown economy driven language approach would eventually revert to the old "English or bilingual" standard being in effect in business. We have already seen ominous shades of this last fall.

The PQ is going too far and doesn't have majority support to strengthen 101. That won't happen.

Québec made a choice way back in the 1970's and has supported it ever since: French is the language of the majority here, and would soon stop to be if education, work and service to the public regulations were not written accordingly. One could say the choice stemmed out of wanting "to protect an endangered species" (a French speaking community in North America).

Did this choice hurt QC economically? It is possible. Was the French language saved in the process? I believe yes. Is Bill 101 or its' enforcement perfect? No. I am particularly irked by the "smaller other languages" commercial sign and the welcome signs when I come in from Ontario that greet me in big French, then smaller English, Spanish and Portuguese. That is way, way over the top in my book.

One thing is clear, harping about it won't change a thing because all major parties won't tinker with it much, as should be.

François Legault said some time ago that Ottawa was not lending much of an ear to QC because its' "balance sheet" was in the red. He proposed the wild notion to start contributing to the federation and then see what happens. Let me tell you that the PQ had a field day with that one...

I happen to agree with a lot of what Legault has to say. No one is perfect, so pick one. The mildewed PQ with these leveraged threat tactics which I have always despised, and just as indebted to third parties as the others. The cynical Liberals who are filling their pockets blind while staging the election during pivotal events to what they hope is their "advantage by default". They figure there is no way for them to capitalize on the student crisis other than call an election, and now. Whatever would have come next would have probably been unfavourable to their already shaky standing. Charest is also doing it now before Legault had time to slowly build up the CAQ.

So I am tossing my hat in the ring with Legault and the CAQ.