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Election 2012: Will History repeat itself? Union National splits vote, PQ wins power.

Zatara

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Thanks for sharing your ignorance about the Québec society. For your information,in 1976 the Union nationale was lead by one of the most nationalist leader of its history, drawing a fraction of the nationalist vote in the rural areas. If you think that those who voted UN would have all cast their votes for the liberals, you're off the road. It is generally accepted that they may have maid a difference in 7 or 8 districts. The problem with your math is that the PQ won with a lead of 45 mp.


The UN was presented as an alternative to hard core nationalism, it makes no difference if they only maid a difference or won in 7 or 8 districts they still sucked away a lot of votes from the Liberals. The CAQ is might suck up a lot of votes from the Liberals this time. Sucking away 18.2% of the vote is significant. The PQ were ahead only 255,295 votes and the UN sucked away almost 3 times as much.

Results of 1976 Quebec Provincial Elections :

November 15, 1976 Provincial Election
Parti québécois 71 MNAs 41.4% 1,390,351 votes
Liberal Party 26 MNAs 33.8% 1,135,056 votes
Union nationale 11 MNAs 18.2% 611,666 votes
Ralliement créditiste 1 MNA 4.6% 155,451 votes
Other Parties 1 MNA 2.0% 67,982 votes

Voter turnout 85.3%
 

gugu

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Feb 11, 2009
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The CAQ is might suck up a lot of votes from the Liberals this time.

Comme tu veux souligner les fautes d'orthographe d'un francophone qui fait des efforts pour répondre en anglais à un message en anglais, je vais me faire un plaisir de te répondre plutôt en français. Ce que tu n'arrives pas comprendre, c'est que la CAQ, c'est exactement comme l'Union nationale: son électorat primaire, c'est la droite nationaliste. Ça fait mal au PQ autant qu'aux libéraux.

Tu ne peux pas faire des mathématiques élémentaires comme celles-là. La population anglophone est massivement concentrée dans quelques circonscriptions au Québec. Ça désavantage le parti libéral qui doit obtenir un plus grand nombre de votes que le PQ pour obtenir le même nombre de députés au total. Si l'Union nationale ne s'était pas présentée que son vote avait été réparti 2/3-1/3 en faveur du parti libéral, ça n'aurait pas empêché le PQ de prendre le pouvoir.
 

RobinX

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Aug 30, 2009
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Please don't vote for the PQ unless you want to see property values drop significantly and the city go bust. The only guys voting for PQ are the french guys on welfare in Frontenac who have nothing to lose. Don't make the mistake of voting for them or we will all suffer. Montreal is great the way it is, we have too much to lose by voting for a bunch of french extremists.
This is 2012, not 1976. It is surprising to hear that there still people who are still so afraid of the separatist bogeyman. It reminds me of the story of the Brinks trucks leaving Québec loaded with money, in anticipation of a PQ victory. As to who supports the PQ, you should do a bit more research and also brush up on your geography. The latest polls indicate that the PQ leads all parties in popular vote, and most of the PQ vote is in the regions, not in Montréal. As to why Montréal is a great city, it is precisely because it is French, and historically the PQ has been one of the greatest protectors of the French fact in Montréal.
 

TheDon

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I never understood why the "French" have to be protected in Quebec.

The laws in Quebec are not to protect the French but to weed out the English.

All politicians are the same no matter which party they are associated with.
 

Gentle

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>>> EDIT par Mod 11: Ce post n'apportait pas grand chose, non? On reste calme et on respire par le nez. Mépriser les gens n'est pas une façon de discuter. Je je n'avais pas vu ce post aussi vite, Gentle serait en vacances jusqu'après les élections.
 
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Zatara

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Oct 9, 2010
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Comme tu veux souligner les fautes d'orthographe d'un francophone qui fait des efforts pour répondre en anglais à un message en anglais, je vais me faire un plaisir de te répondre plutôt en français. Ce que tu n'arrives pas comprendre, c'est que la CAQ, c'est exactement comme l'Union nationale: son électorat primaire, c'est la droite nationaliste. Ça fait mal au PQ autant qu'aux libéraux.

Tu ne peux pas faire des mathématiques élémentaires comme celles-là. La population anglophone est massivement concentrée dans quelques circonscriptions au Québec. Ça désavantage le parti libéral qui doit obtenir un plus grand nombre de votes que le PQ pour obtenir le même nombre de députés au total. Si l'Union nationale ne s'était pas présentée que son vote avait été réparti 2/3-1/3 en faveur du parti libéral, ça n'aurait pas empêché le PQ de prendre le pouvoir.

Young kids today are not into separation, the PQ is a bunch of old separatist crying in their beer and are led by an elite faction of rich Quebecois like Pauline Marois.
We are in for a correction in property prices in Canada, all we need is talk of separation to start the slide. There are way less separatist today than there were in 1976, and their numbers are dwindling. I suspect that the worse that can happen is if there is a PQ victory and Marois imposes another referendum on us again. Even if there is just talk about a referendum this will bring property prices down.

I say buy property low when the PQ drives the prices down and in about 20 years when I retire things should have long since bounced back to how things are today.
I suspect Marois will be doing the same.

By Jove, things look good for the future.
 

gugu

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Feb 11, 2009
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PQ victories has never had an effect on housing value, except maybe a temporary one in the West Island in the months following the 1976 elections. How can you predict it will be the case this time?
 

RobinX

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Again I would suggest that doing a bit of reading before commenting, and avoiding exaggerated claims. For example:
I say buy property low when the PQ drives the prices down .
Here is an article on the subject:
The politics of home prices: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/politics+home+prices/6978161/story.html#ixzz22ovaSMuc
Here is a quote from the article:
Economists and real estate observers are quick to reject the idea of a PQ victory automatically leading to a drop in residential property values within the Greater Montreal Area.
Another example:
Young kids today are not into separation, the PQ is a bunch of old separatist crying in their beer.
Here is an article on the subject: Sovereignty losing appeal for young Quebecers - http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/07/young-quebecers-turning-away-from-sovereignty-poll/
The article states that support for sovereignty among the young is at the same level as the rest of the population:
32% of people age 18 to 24 would vote for a sovereign Quebec, compared to 34% for all age groups combined
 

gugu

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Feb 11, 2009
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The article states that support for sovereignty among the young is at the same level as the rest of the population:

True, but polls also show quite clearly that among the french speaking people the 18-34 y/group is much less in favor of "souveraineté-partenariat" (the highest rating independence option) today, a bit less then 45% in 2010, compared to a bit less then 70% in 1995. That is quite a difference showing there is a generational gap, especially if you consider that independence score higher then anytime before in older groups. http://www.lapresse.ca/html/1230/Durand1976-2010.pdf
 

Sal Bass

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Feb 14, 2012
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I have spoken to young people and they think to get ahead in this world today is hard enough already. They do not need to live in a unstable situation where separation will throw this economy into a tail spin. The young hard core separatist of years ago are the old geezers of today. Young Quebecois want prosperity.
 

gugu

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Feb 11, 2009
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I also have spoken to young people and they are not scared for one second by the old geezers trying to scare them about the effect of separation. As a matter of fact, they don't care much about separation. They care about the direction in which the ultra conservatives are driving us in Canada, the environmental wreck and the economic disparities. They don't want the prosperity the ways it is proposed, they are damn scared of it.
 

Matos

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The Iluminati will give to the people what they want ... USA wanted a Black President, they got it ... France wanted a Right side of Politic, they got Hollande and now they are happy, what most Quebec people want is a Female President and they will get it, they will be happy and then they ll die in Fema Camps in New Bruisnwick and Alberta ...

Not everyone can see the Plan and what is going on ... People don t know and don t want to know what is happening, are not called from the Father and already lost their soul !

Are you one of it ? Hope not, turn to GOD and beleive in Him and he will save you with Grace and mercy :)
 

protagoras

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what most Quebec people want is a Female President and they will get it :)

Too bad for you that Gilberte Côté-Mercier is dead...she was probably your main inspiration.
 

Matos

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Apr 29, 2007
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Not at all, i don t beleive in politic, to me they are all brainswashed and all manipulated by higher entities. Politic Members to me are Puppets that s all and people vote are Sheeeeeeep !
 

CantSeeMrHappy

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Aug 13, 2005
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I'm glad that there's a third party now.

Was a fan of Mario Dumont. Not sure what the CAQ will shape up to be, but the underdog gets my vote. Them or the "green" party.
 

HIGHHEELS

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Aug 7, 2012
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This is 2012, not 1976. It is surprising to hear that there still people who are still so afraid of the separatist bogeyman. It reminds me of the story of the Brinks trucks leaving Québec loaded with money, in anticipation of a PQ victory. As to who supports the PQ, you should do a bit more research and also brush up on your geography. The latest polls indicate that the PQ leads all parties in popular vote, and most of the PQ vote is in the regions, not in Montréal. As to why Montréal is a great city, it is precisely because it is French, and historically the PQ has been one of the greatest protectors of the French fact in Montréal.

It is exactly what happened! There was a massive outflow of of capital from Montreal(primarily to Toronto) as a result of the 'separatist bogeyman.' And I am not sure where you get off saying Montreal is a great city because it is French.. I would be just fine not hearing one word of French, thank you very much!


>>> Edit by Mod 11: This was Tilt/Terminator and other names. Feel free to consult the suspension thread for more info. Please ignore the comment above in light small grey. Thanks.
 
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sapman99

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Nov 13, 2005
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I am not sure where you get off saying Montreal is a great city because it is French.. I would be just fine not hearing one word of French, thank you very much!
>>> Edit by Mod 11: This was Tilt/Terminator and other names. Feel free to consult the suspension thread for more info. Please ignore the comment above in light small grey. Thanks.

Wow, well you just closed your ears to, and took a swipe at 60% of the population of this great city. This % is only the ones speaking it at home, not everyone that can speak French.

If you actually live here, how else is this city great if you feel the need to say things like that about a large part of the population? "Your Montréal" must be a very lonely place indeed...

I will let the inflammatory tone of your post slide, because you only have one post, which could mean many things:

- Unaware of our respectful (most of the time) ways here
- You have another handle here, but not the gumption to post this type of redneck drivel with it
- You are an agent provocateur from the cerulean zone

Your rant will not stop the fact that a great number of us (anglophones and francophones) agree that the "French fact" does contribute to making this a great city.
 
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Tigers' WOOD!

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In 1975, Montreal was the city in Canada with the most head offices, we no longer have the most head offices in Canada. In 1975, Montreal was the city with the biggest population, we no longer have the biggest population in Canada. Why?
 

james t kirk

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In 1975, Montreal was the city in Canada with the most head offices, we no longer have the most head offices in Canada. In 1975, Montreal was the city with the biggest population, we no longer have the biggest population in Canada. Why?

Quite correct.

As a guy who lives in Toronto, but works for a company based in Quebec for the last 12 years, I'm in Montreal and the rest of the province at least half of the year. As such, I have a unique opportunity to observe the politics and culture first hand.

I have often joked (but with a tinge of reality) that they should rename University Avenue in Toronto "Rene Levesque Street" because he built it. Seriously. Levesque and his policies of discrimination destroyed Montreal. When I was a kid growing up in Hamilton, Montreal was always THEE Number One City in Canada. I'd ask questions about Canada and my parents would always tell me that "Montreal was the biggest city in Canada", etc. etc. I remember it seemed impossible that Toronto would ever catch up with Monteal. Montreal was this mythical place where the action was. Now? Montreal will never, ever catch up with Toronto.

In fact, I don't think the population of Montreal has recovered to where it was in 1976.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Montreal

The separatist policies of Levesque drove hundreds of thousands of people down the 401 to Toronto. They brought with them their talent, their skills, their know-how. They came to a welcoming city, a city where they could put a sign up in Chinese, or Greek, or Arabic. No-one cared.

Having watched the dynamic between Montreal and the rest of Quebec, I must say that Montreal is its own animal. It is not like the rest of the province and I have witnessed how Quebec city people (for example) make a lot of disparaging remarks and statements about people in Montreal. People in Montreal are laid back, more tolerant of the Anglo / Franco thing. Montreal is a fairly cosmopolitan town. This is exactly what the Separtists despise. The Separatists don't want Anglos and Francos getting along like they do in Montreal. I swear to God, Levesque and his buddies were thrilled when half the city packed up and moved to Toronto. It got rid of the guys who would never vote for them and never vote for an independent Quebec. In short, Levesque deliberately enacted policies he knew would destroy Montreal, but he didn't care. He gutted Montreal in order to bring his dream to reality. (The end (an independent Quebec) justified the means and the result (driving hundreds of thousands of people out and destroying the city).

How any Montrealer could possibly hope for separatism is beyond me.

Just look at real estate values in Toronto vs. Montreal. Toronto's real estate prices have increased dramatically since 1997 (whether that is a good thing is a topic for another thread). Montreal? Not so much. Definitely no comparison to Toronto, or Calgary, or Vancouver. Part of the reason is that immigrants from all over the world want to come to Toronto and Vancouver and Calgary. They really would rather not settle in Montreal unless they are francophones. No immigrant play = less increase in property prices.

A previous poster made the point that "is that all you decide your vote on is property values?". Well, it's more than property values persay. It's about economic stability and most of all economic security. If I've learned anything about losing money in the stock market, it's that the market hates uncertainty. I'm not sure why anyone in Quebec would want to elect a party that is the very definition of uncertainty.

Your call, it's your vote, but another referendum? Look out below. I just don't understand how anything postivie could come out of separation for the average Quebecer. The only people who will bennefit from separation in Quebec are the likes of Pauline Marois and her ilk. They will NEVER be Prime Minister of Canada, but maybe they can be Prime Minister of an Independent Quebec.
 

gugu

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Feb 11, 2009
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The separatist policies of Levesque drove hundreds of thousands of people down the 401 to Toronto.

Thanks for the laugh! Some of you guys have no idea about numbers.

The only "argument" I read from federalists in this thread is fear. "You destroy our country, we'll do everything to destroy you!" Seriously, guys, if you want to make an argument, I think it would be a better idea to use a more positive approach to tell people why you think federalism is better for Québec.

Otherwise, I see no reason why you are afraid of the PQ. Do you seriously think they will go for an other referendum? Have you read de polls lately?
 
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