How is everyone coping? Still abstaining? I am getting the feeling of wanting to go to an MP today as it's been a while. But, I don't know if I should given that we are still in the red zone. If it's like one-off thing, do you think it would be OK? I am so conflicted and don't know what to do.
hhmmm.. let's do a little math....
weve been averaging about 1 thousand new cases a day lately....assuming when people get the positive diagnosis, they self isolate (not like trump), then they are off the streets and no longer a threat. A fraction of them were a threat only if they were infectious without symptoms only for a day or so, let's say 50%. So basically, everyday there is a new batch of around 500 people that are infectious but do not know it yet.
That's 500 people a day in all of quebec you need not get into prolonged indoor close contact to, probably about 250 people in the montreal area. Since there are about 4M people in the MMA, you are looking at about a 250/4M chance of getting covid if you see a sex worker. That would be about 0.006% chance of getting Covid from 1 encounter with a sex worker. Of course, one could argue that she may have seen 20 people in the last week, increasing the odds that she is one of the 250 people in the montreal area that are infectious but dont know it that day. But everyday she is without symptoms, the clock resets. It is only that
1 day or so before she gets symptoms or gets tested that she is infectious and does not know it. Its a moving window.
So you cannot count all the people she saw in the last week, just those in that window about 5 to 7 days after infection, for a day or so where she is infectious but does not know it, which would be a window of another day or two. If she saw 5 clients in that window, that is 5X the initial odds I set out, so therefore now we are at 0.006% x 5 = 0.03% chance of catching covid from 1 encounter with a sex worker. That's 3 in 10000....then you have the Covid odds depending on your age how you will fare once you caught the virus. I'm 51, so about 0.5% of dying. So my chance of dying from seeing a sex worker is 0.005*0.0003 = 0.0000015 =
15 in 10 million. Ok I probably cut some corners in that estimation...multiply by 10 for fun. 15 in 1 millon.
I say go for it