The Official MERB Baseball Offseason Thread (trades, signings, NO fucktard comments!)

[rumpleforeskiin]

about as good as a WAR stat eh? .... ......

WAR stand for Wins Above Replacement. By replacement they mean a "replacement level player." Examples of replacement level players might be, for example, Nick Green or Brett Gardner.

WAR follows a fairly complex analysis of both offense and defense, adjusted for many variable factors, such a home park.

 

[lgna69xxx]

why ty for that explanation my good man.......

WAR stand for Wins Above Replacement. By replacement they mean a "replacement level player." Examples of replacement level players might be, for example, Nick Green or Brett Gardner.

WAR follows a fairly complex analysis of both offense and defense, adjusted for many variable factors, such a home park.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

The Red Sox biggest problem last year was a power shortage at the plate.

WRONG!!! The 2009 Red Sox scored 872 runs and hit 212 home runs. The World Champion 2007 Red Sox scored 867 runs and hit 166 home runs. The Red Sox biggest problem last year was their defense.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

ok for one more try (rumps) lets get back to baseball....
are the Sox stuck with injury prone and over paid mike lowell or is there value to be had by trading him, IF tradeable? http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=304182

We won't know the answer to this until we see how he performs in spring training. The Sox have clearly moved beyond Lowell and plan to use Kotchman and Youkilis at the corners. I read an article just this morning that clearly demonstrated that Kotchman and Pujols are the two best defensive first basemen in baseball. If Kotchman can hit 15 hr and have a .340 obp, they'll be very happy with his production. The Red Sox stand to put out a plu or a plus plus defender at every position but catcher this coming season.

As for Lowell, if he performs well enough in spring training, they'll try to trade him. Otherwise, he'll spell Kotchman against tough lefties and be a bat off the bench. To answer your question, there is no answer yet.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

But that was matched by the fact they couldn't find the runs when they needed in cases where they came up against top pitchers.

Sorry, pal. The Sox offense was not a part of the problem. In fact, if you look at their run differential, the Sox won one more game than they should have. (The Yankees won 7 more games than they should have, by the way, which means they had incredibly good luck. Eliminate luck and the Sox finish 2 games back.)

No, the Sox scored more then enough runs. The problems were twofold: defense and 30+ starts given to Penny and Smoltz, along with the disappearance of Matsuzaka. Both problems have been fixed.

 

[Jman47]

Rumples, Merlot...hello gents, IMHO you guys are both right and in violent agreement!

Defense was definitely a problem...'nough said.

If you look at the totals, run production was not an issue; however Ortiz was asleep at the switch until June (I know 'cause I carried his happy ass on my fantasy team ) and while others stepped up at times (Lowell, Bay, Drew) there was no real consistency until after the All Star break. Bay also ran hot and then his K totals began to kill him, although he continued to hit the long ball (had him too). Looking forward, in 2010 we have Victor for a full season...dramatic improvement at that position at the plate, but I worry about the game behind the plate as Vtek is a master at preparation.

Starting pitching also suffered slightly and sporadically since Dice K had to do the GD World Classic and never did regain form (btw he drives me crazy when he pitches - just throw the f.....n ball)! Smoltz never redeveloped (until he got back to the NL) and Penny, well can you say Vazquez equivalent...lol.

But they got to the dance and then just went flat on the offensive side...or from the another perspective the Angel's starting pitching had a game plan and executed it. Scocia is too good of a baseball man to have had his ass handed to him one more time, cause the Sox owned him until then in the playoffs.

Pitchers and catchers report in a little over 6 weeks...February 17th...Happy Birthday (well almost) to me!!!

BTW, great to see us back on subject.

 

[Jman47]

The Phillies also don't seem to have done much more than trade one number 1 pitcher for another. Yes, Halladay should be an improvement. But only slightly since they have lost a superb pitcher in the process. The Series showed they did not have the hitters to overcome great pitching and Polanco at .285...10...72 isn't going to give them the jump they need.


Merlot

One thing that I failed to mention/consider in my prior analysis and we all may be tending to overlook...Halliday is now pitching in a HITTERS ballpark...could have an impact, even though he is pitching in the N(no hitting)L...at least as an equalizer from a stats stand point...

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

The fact that your numbers didn't work out the way they should have proves that outcomes predicted by stats are faulted...luck or not.

Wins predicted by run differential work with 2 games over 90% of the time, as they did for the Sox last year. To be able to look at runs scored and runs allowed and know, within 2, how many games a team will win is pretty remarkable.

Teams run hot, teams run cold. The Sox got cold at a bad time last year, aided by some pretty good Anaheim pitching.

The 2010 Sox are a significantly better team: the defense is vastly improved, Daisuke has reported to API in tremendous shape and we have John Lackey. Can any other team claim 4 aces? The offense should be every bit as good as last year. They've lost Bay, but the drop to Cameron is not huge. Nick Green's plate appearances will go to Marco Scutaro and most of Jason Varitek's will go to Victor Martinez. And Jason Varitek playing only 40 games should give us better production than we got from George Kottaras.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Merlot,

Wagner was only with the Sox for a month and while Saito was effective, he was never used in high leverage situations.

And as for the Sox playing small ball, the team was 3rd in the majors in runs scored last year. They're bringing back 5 players who it 24 home runs or more last year. This is a team that has no shortage of offense.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

With the cheap signing of Adrian Beltre, the Sox have added a fifth player likely to hit 25 HR or more.

The Sox roster now looks complete. In the field, they have 4 Gold Gloves, 3 very good fielders, and a sub-par defensive catcher. Their starting rotation contains 3 number one starters, 1 number 2 (Daisuke), and Clay Buchholz, whom I won't categorize as his abilities haven't been firmly established. His upside is number 1; he flashed that ability last year.

This is one very good team.

This from PeteAbe in today's Globe, "Defensively, Beltre is not merely a good third baseman. He is one of the two or three best in the game. Outside of possibly Evan Longoria, I'm not sure there there is a better third baseman in the American League. Beltre is a guy with tremendous reactions, a strong arm and an amazing ability to come in on slow rollers and make a play.

He is a player who will actively prevent runs from being scored. With Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, the Red Sox have four legitimate Gold Glove candidates in their infield backing up a strong rotation. That is a far more consistent and predictable way to wins games than loading up on offense."

 

[Jman47]

Theogenius....

With the cheap signing of Adrian Beltre, the Sox have added a fifth player likely to hit 25 HR or more.

The Sox roster now looks complete. In the field, they have 4 Gold Gloves, 3 very good fielders, and a sub-par defensive catcher. Their starting rotation contains 3 number one starters, 1 number 2 (Daisuke), and Clay Buchholz, whom I won't categorize as his abilities haven't been firmly established. His upside is number 1; he flashed that ability last year.

This is one very good team.

This from PeteAbe in today's Globe, "Defensively, Beltre is not merely a good third baseman. He is one of the two or three best in the game. Outside of possibly Evan Longoria, I'm not sure there there is a better third baseman in the American League. Beltre is a guy with tremendous reactions, a strong arm and an amazing ability to come in on slow rollers and make a play.

He is a player who will actively prevent runs from being scored. With Beltre, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, the Red Sox have four legitimate Gold Glove candidates in their infield backing up a strong rotation. That is a far more consistent and predictable way to wins games than loading up on offense."

Nice move. If you take Beltre out of Safeco, his offensive numbers are even better. While historically he did not do well as a visiting player at Fenway (as I am sure our pinstripe friends will be likely to point out), home-team colors should cure that.
Interesting to see that he passed up 2 other more lucrative offers to play for a winner in 2010.
His glove speaks for itself.

Nice work this off season Theo.
Let's play ball!!!

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

According to Dave Cameron over at fangraphs.com, Adrian Beltre is in the discussion of the greatest defensive 3B of all time.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/beltre-to-boston

 

[Jman47]

http://encyclopediadramatica.com/Yankees

Well we almost got to 20 posts without a f***tard comment...

 

[Jman47]

Another stealth pursuit for Red Sox?

While Cashman sleeps off his WS hangover, Epstein may still be hard at work...

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4805099

 

[lgna69xxx]

do you "REALLY" wanna awaken the Sleeping Giant? be carefull what you wish for.. i can see Chapman a Yankee or a Marlin

While Cashman sleeps off his WS hangover, Epstein may still be hard at work...

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4805099

 

[Jman47]

No man, what I really want is Joe.t to jump in here and make a prediction...that would cinch it for the Sox...lol...

 

[lgna69xxx]

Yanks are the "apple" in Theo Epstein's Eye

http://tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=305149


I think that article i posted a few days ago about the Red Sox using the Yankee mold is onto something here, like it said, if ya cant beat em, join em! ..add another 10million to the payroll for 2010..... what you say? the red sox dont buy players, dont buy championships? ...... well believe what you wish, red sox fans, but as a most noble hockey mind, oups my bad, i mean noble baseball mind in here once said, "truth hurts"

 

[Jman47]

http://tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=305149


I think that article i posted a few days ago about the Red Sox using the Yankee mold is onto something here, like it said, if ya cant beat em, join em! ..add another 10million to the payroll for 2010..... what you say? the red sox dont buy players, dont buy championships? ...... well believe what you wish, red sox fans, but as a most noble hockey mind, oups my bad, i mean noble baseball mind in here once said, "truth hurts"

Difference is the Sox are under the luxury cap genius...George is paying taxes, John Henry is not...
And oh yeah, that article from a couple of days ago was bogus.

What concerns me in your most recent article posted is the news that the Sox traded Kotchman for Hall...why?
Maybe Theo has another deal up his sleeve...

 

[Special K]

Difference is the Sox are under the luxury cap genius...George is paying taxes, John Henry is not...
And oh yeah, that article from a couple of days ago was bogus.

What concerns me in your most recent article posted is the news that the Sox traded Kotchman for Hall...why?
Maybe Theo has another deal up his sleeve...

I believe the reasoning behind this Jman was that with the Beltre signing they can now move Lowell over to first in case Youk needs a day off and they also got a good amount of money from Seattle to offset their signing of Beltre. Hall could be a decent back up outfield option as well as infield too.

 

[lgna69xxx]

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/b...12/15/breaking-bank-look-red-sox-payroll-2010 (add Beltres 10 Million to this)



more "proof", if ya cant beat em, join em......... how ya gonna spin this one red sox fans, truthfully.... frankly, it's just good business sense, but since all you sawx fans like to cry about the yanks doing it, i cant wait for the hypocritical answers....... hey JoeT , Eager, and Octavian, to quote Terrel Owens, "Getcha Popcorn",. this ought to be good........ Jman, you first? Rumples? Merlot? whose first, K man?....... Doc you can play too even tho your not a sox fan, be interesting to hear a neutral POV also