I won't make any 2013 predictions until around opening day to account for any last minute trades or injuries, but I am not nearly as pessimistic about the Yankees' chances as what I've seen in the media.
Nor would I expect you to be. Here's a little exercise for you. I'll list my reasons for optimism for my Sox and my reasons for suggesting a horrible season for the Yankees. You do the reverse: why you're optimistic for the Yankees (or at least less pessimistic than common wisdom) and why you think the Sox will falter.
The Sox:
1. Despite a horrible rash of injuries (Crawford, Lackey, Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, Ortiz, Youkilis) and offseasons for Buchholz and Lester, the Sox weren't awful last year (60-66) prior to the August 25 trade. After that, they just mailed it in to the tune of 9-27. Thanks for the leadership, Mr. V.
2. A strong starting rotation, backed up by considerable depth. While Spring stats are, for the most part meaningless, Lester (24 ip, 8 h, 2er, 4 bb 0.75 ERA, .50 whip) and Buchholz (18.2 ip, 11 h, 2 er, 5 bb 0.96 ERA, .86 whip) have shown everything that made them aces for their entire pre-2012 careers. In particular, Nieves has Buchholz working much quicker, delivering a pitch every 15 seconds, some 11 second quicker than his career number. Lackey, Dempster, and Doubront should all be competent league average pitchers in the 3-4-5 spots. (By the way, Dempsters stats in Texas were quite deceiving. While he did have a 5.09 ERA in Texas, his game log shows two starts (of twelve) where he allowed 8 runs, seven where he allowed 2 or fewer.) In addition, the 2012 Sox had 41 starts by guys named Matsuzaka, Bard, Stewart and Cook. Thanks to the Dodger trade and continued development on the farm, there is considerably more depth this year.
3. Mike Napoli will contend for the HR crown. Napoli has a career OPS of .863. You know how many Yankees have higher career OPS? Teixeira and Rodriguez.
4. Certainly Ortiz and Ellsbury are question marks. I certainly don't expect a repeat of 2011 from Ellsbury. That's why the range of 82-90 wins. And who knows what they're going to get from JBJ. For the record, I'd sacrifice the offense and deal Drew to St. Louis and let Iglesias play every day. He's a magician.
The Yankees.
1. Starting pitching. Like Ellsbury, Hughes is always a health concern and who knows what you're going to get from Nova. Andy Pettitte is 41 years old and hasn't thrown more than 129 innings since 2009. CC Sabathia is 33 and coming off elbow surgery. He threw over 235 innings every year from 2007-2011, down to 200 last year. I wouldn't be massively concerned about his effectiveness or health, but I think the days of over 200 innings are gone. Hideki Kuroda is 38 years old and threw more innings than he'd ever thrown before. No, I wouldn't be massively concerned about him either, but I do think they're going to have to step him back by 20-30 innings. David Phelps is nice depth, but he's all there is.
2. The Yankees hit 245 hr last year. 201 of them will not be on the field opening day. They've been replaced by the fragile Kevin Youkilis, the more fragile Travis Hafner, and the corpse of Vernon Wells. Really? Youkilis is a guy with NO tools who has made himself into a fine player by working hard and playing hard. Hard enough to get hurt continually. Hafner hasn't done shit for years though I expect he'll be quite productive considering that he's made for Yankee Stadium...if he can stay on the field. Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira, he of the five consecutive years of OPS decline, when they return will both be coming off wrist injuries. You know as well as I do how wrist injuries linger and sap power long after they've healed. That's a particular concern here since power is all these two have got.
3. Derek Jeter. If he can ever get on the field. Considering he's another year older, he's coming off a badly broken ankle, and his -15.9 UZR last year, he could be the worst defensive shortstop in history in 2013. Will management have the stones to take Mr. Icon off the field?
4. There's no offense behind the plate. You don't know who will be at first base until Teixeira returns, assuming he returns at all. Not that he's a concern, but Robinson Cano exceeded his career average OPS by 75 points in 2012 at 29; you can expect some reversal here. You really don't know who your shortstop will be until further notice. Youkilis should be at least fair as long as he's healthy, but his days of .850 are probably gone. You'll be running Wells out for at least a month and who knows what Granderson's wrist will allow on his return. The aging and declining Ichiro was a mirage last year, a product of Yankee Stadium. His road numbers after he joined the Yankees were as bad as his overall numbers in Seattle.
This is a team with precious little offense, historically bad defense on the left side of the infield, and a starting rotation that should be fine at the top as long as it holds up, not so fine at the back end. .500 is a stretch.