So who is the odds on favorite to take the AL East? I like what Boston has done. The Panda is a South American version of Mr. October and Ramirez is supposed to be an outstanding acquisition. I also like Ricky Porcello. He pitched 3 complete game shutouts last year but that was in Comerica National Park.
Quite simply, there is no "odds-on" favorite. First, we don't know what the rosters are going to look like on April 1, but based on current rosters the Red Sox project to be a slight favorite with 42.8 WAR (1 win higher than the Dodgers.) The Blue Jays project at 38.4 WAR, the Rays at 36.9, the Yankees at 36.5 and the Orioles at 34. (By the way, Steamer Projections has 17 pitchers with WAR of 3.0 or higher, including Rick Porcello.)
The Red Sox certainly have the most complete roster. It's pretty safe to say that we know who 22-24 of their opening day players are. The Yankees have a ton of question marks. I had breakfast this morning with a Yankee fan who is hoping that CC Sabathia can be a number 3 starter, though he allows that number 5 is equally likely. Will Tanaka win 20 games or spend the season recovering from TJ? Does Mark Teixeira have anything left? Does Alex Rodriguez have anything left? When will Ivan Nova return and what will he bring with him? Can Carlos Beltran stay healthy for more than two weeks and does he have anything left? Who will play second base? The list goes on. The Yanks have little power and it all, every bit of it, comes from guys well into the down side of their careers. When you hear Yankee fans banking their hopes on a fringe major leaguer like Didi Gregorius, you know they're in trouble.
The Jays have made some nice moves, certainly. I haven't looked their roster over, but Steamer seems to like them. The Orioles have lost a lot but also have Matt Wieters and Manny Machado returning. The Rays keep losing players, but keep developing pitchers. Really, at this point, I'd say anyone but the Yanks and Rays could win this division. What they'll look like on opening day remains to be seen. Who will surprise remains to be seen. Who will stay healthy remains to be seen.
As for Max Scherzer, I'm guessing he goes back to the Tigers. Who else is left? The Sox wouldn't go $150 for Lester, they sure won't for Scherzer. With the Yankees sucking the back end of three ugly contracts, one can't imagine them paying $40 M per year (including luxury tax). The Dodgers have to be done. The Cubs won't add him after signing Lester. Could the Mets get in? The Giants certainly are a possibility and, of course, all it takes is two clubs and Scott Boras to drive the price up. Still, I'm guessing that when all is said and done, he goes to Detroit for about $160.