The Red Sox dilemma
excerpt from an article by Peter Gammons
After John Lackey shut out the Jays Monday night, the Red Sox had won eight of nine and seemingly were in the same position as Tampa Bay. But the next two nights they lost in Toronto, and are faced with reality that only a big weekend can brighten: they are in last for the second time in three years, they have the worst run differential in the division, only the White Sox, Twins and Astros have worse records in the American League.
So, barring a productive weekend against Price and the Rays followed by a reversal at Fenway Park against the Jays, Cherington has to decide if he can add a bat and move some veterans for figures from the Duckboat Parade that are deemed expendable. Jake Peavy’s record belies his performance as a credible backend starter, and can likely bring a Thursday A-ball piece (the Red Sox were scouting 21-year old Cardinals outfielder Rowan Wick in the New York-Penn League) from the Cardinals, Giants (whose system is thin on outfielders), Braves or even the Pirates or Brewers. Jonny Gomes has value, possibly to the Royals. Several teams want Andrew Miller.
Which leads to one of Boston’s big dilemmas. They want to re-sign both Miller and Jon Lester, but are far short right now. When the Red Sox made their four year, $70M offer in March, they intended it to be a starting point. But while both sides have publically stated that they will re-open discussions, nothing has happened to make anyone believe a deal will be made before Lester hits free agency in November. “What you have to understand is that under Tony Clark, the Players Association has become heavily involved in all contract negotiations. They want players to get what they perceive as their fair market value, which means they would like to see the big players like Lester and Max Scherzer go to the market, get the bidding rolling and help players throughout the industry.”
For example, one National League team thought it had longterm deals with pre-arbitration players done, only to have the agents come back and say the union would not accept the deals; they finally reached agreements, but at higher numbers. One AL GM had the same experience. There are several general managers who felt that is why the Indians never reached a deal in March with Justin Masterson.
When the Red Sox sat down with Lester in March, he told friends he wanted one dollar more than Homer Bailey’s six year, $105M. Now, $140M doesn’t seem out of reach on the market. “I don’t see anything less than $120M at this point,” says one NL GM. “The union is not accepting hometown discounts.”
Red Sox owner John Henry has made it clear in business journal interviews that he does not like the historic return on pitchers in their thirties. But while the Red Sox have 5-8 pitchers—Anthony Ranaudo, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Rubby De La Rosa, Matt Barnes—they believe can work into the rotation in the next year, there is no successor to Lester’s position as staff leader. Where two years ago Lester was becoming an uphill, drop-and-drive fastball/cutter pitcher, between Juan Nieves and David Ross he has evolved into a downhill pitcher who uses both sides of the plate, has re-invented his curveball and had convinced many he can win losing 2-3 MPH. He’s proven his post-season worth, he has 13 years in the organization…
If by the middle of the week the Red Sox have further faded and are convinced nothing short of something between $120M and $150M is going to retain Lester, they will at least see what the market bears. If Price is, as expected, off the market, if the Dodgers, who need to get their network on Time-Warner cable systems, are three or four games back of the Giants and essentially tied (as they are now) in the wild card with the Pirates, would they deal a Corey Seager for a two month rental, figuring they could sign Lester, reunited with Josh Beckett. Sure, the Red Sox have a glut on infielders, but they know Miami lusts for Seager, and he might be a piece in a 4-for-1 package for Giancarlo Stanton in the off-season. (That would be enhanced if they could get 17-year old lefthander Julio Urias, but the Dodgers spent $260M to get Adrian Gonzalez for their Spanish network and certainly won’t deal the best pitching prospect in the game who happens to be from Mexico). Three GMs yesterday predicted there is “no way” Boston gets a Seager-esque prospect for a rental, but this Dodger ownership needs to win, get in more homes and thus far have indicated that, like Giselle and Tom in the house market, cost is not an issue.
It is evident that the Red Sox don’t really know from fortnight to fortnight what they are. They know that trading Lester and/or Miller will not help their lagging NESN ratings, especially with the Patriots in training camp and the Bruins doing the same in another month. The choices on Lester may be trying: pay by the cost imagined by the union, trade him or accept a 20-something first round draft pick, a decision whose complexities fans who pay $50 for parking, $135 for each ticket and $15 for lobster rolls don’t want to hear.
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-red-sox-rays-faced-with-deadline-dilemma/
