Baseball offseason, let's get ready for 2014.

[Doc Holliday]

This is one heck of a signing by the Yankees and i doubt they're done. It wouldn't surprise me to see Tanaka winding up with them, and possibly Cano returning if they can delete A-Rod's monstruous contract.

So far, the Yankees are the clear winners during this off-season, also adding much-conveted catcher Brian McCann.

 

[EagerBeaver]

To me, they are good signings if they stay healthy. I would note, I can't remember when the Yankees had a speed tandem at the top of the order like Ellsbury and Gardner, and I am hoping Ellsbury can teach Gardner better technique. Gardner is one of the fastest white guys I have ever seen, but I don't feel like his technique is very good and he does not steal as many as he should and gets caught too much. I think he gives away his leads, and gets caught leaning way too much. More deception is needed. He needs a good teacher, and Ellsbury is it.

The Yankees did have a nice speed tandem at the top of the order with Mickey Rivers and Willie Randolph in 1977-78, but I do not believe those guys were quite as good as the Ellsbury-Gardner tandem is, potentially.

 

[Merlot]

Oh God,

Ellesbury is a injury risk, 2 out of the last 4 years he has been injured, so I doubt that Cashman will go for him.

Great call on this one, as usual Joe. Could you state that Merlot will never have sex with Megan Fox.

This is a fantastic signing, Ellsbury at 30 is hitting his baseball prime,...

Hey there Mr. Spinner. It must hurt like hell twisting your position sitting on that fence pole up your booop so fast. Wow, I love it. First he's a high injury risk getting 50% of his salary on the bench, then he's a "fantastic signing". Ahhhhhhhhh, the magic of putting on pinstripes. Ellsbury goes from undesirable to god in one move, and now all those mean steroid accusations will disappear because in the world of Joe.t all past offenses are whitewashed and forgotten...for 7 years. GEEEEEEEEZ, you even spelled his name right now. :lol:

On WEEI this morning the resident blowhard Yankees super fan Frank from Gloucester, who always approves anything the Yankees do, called and was apoplectic about how damn awful this contract is. I thought the poor guy was going to explode before the emergency med techs could get there.

If he stays healthy he can be the perfect fit for the Empire.

The buds that spin together stays together. Swwwweeeeeeeett! :eyebrows:

...so I doubt that Cashman will go for him.

Ellsbury is a great game changing player and I wish him all the best. Unlike Damon he didn't lie about his intentions. It was always clear before last season he was going with the highest bidder. But $153 million for 7 years....peeeeuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!! According to Joe.t that's 3 1/2 years and $76.5 million wasted. Then there's Cashman giving in to the kind of deals that has eviscerated the Yankees farm system production and failed to generate a World Series winner for 12 of 13 years while the Red Sox have 3 CHAMPIONSHIPS in the same time to his eternal embarrassment. Not to mention how this deal puts Cano in a fantastic leverage position to get $200 to $250 million minimum or more for 8 to 10 years if the Yankees have any interest in signing him.

Ellsbury is a great addition to any lineup. But his strength is also his fault. He plays hard, often with recklessness that is very impressive but also puts him in a cumulative breakdown risk category. Frankly, I might have taken him at $15-17 million for 4 to 5 years maximum, and that seems high. The added advantage of that home run alley in right may soften the blow of another Crawfordesque term contract. And we know Ellsbury is perfectly safe from Joe's pouting steroid accusation meltdowns. But will their farm system stay a desert of developing talent? What is the benefit if/when Ellsbury ends up on the long term DL? Cahsman has now signaled to everyone he's full of shit on holding the salary, so how much will that cost the Yankees in white elephant contracts and farm system potential?

To top it off, the word is no team was bidding anything like the Yankees offer. Rumors had the Sox willing to go to $80 million, but had no intention of competing with a long term mega deal offer. Cashman "pulled a Yankee" by being going far above and beyond.

And with all of that...where is the pitching???

I am more excited about what the Blue Jays will do,...

Can you tell us whether you wish to remain a Blue Jays fan or do you intend to be Spinner Joe and go back to the Yankees now?

This is one heck of a signing by the Yankees and i doubt they're done.

It's the same failed methods again and again. Cashman hasn't learned anything from overblown and underproductive (so far) contracts with Pujols, Fielder, Votto, and Mauer, all of whom underperformed by significant margins for one reason or another from the start of these contracts in the PRIME of their careers, not the end of them. Then there's his own miserable failures that have hamstrung the team at the same time the Red Sox went from worst to CHAMPS while dumping the same monster contracts.

BTW: concerning Pierzynski, he's a tolerable stop-gap catcher at this time at best.

Cheers,

Merlot

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Pierzinski is 37 years old which is why he only got a year. How many every day 37 year old catchers do you see out there? He is ready to start breaking down. When you catch every day and you hit 37, time is not on your side.

Tell that to Jorge Posada, who had an excellent season at 38.

The problem with Piersinzki isn't really his age or durability. It's the fact he's a well-known 'cancer' in any clubhouse he's been in. He's perceived to be a f#$*# a-hole among many fellow major leaguers who've often named him in polls as being the most hated player in the majors.

Typical Holliday bullshit. Pierzynski actually is well loved in every clubhouse in which he's played. He is hated by the opposition because he's such a fierce competitor.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

So is Jacoby Ellsbury worth $153M over 7 years that the Yankees have signed him for? This'll be interesting!

Jacoby Ellsbury is a good player, who had one great year. His WAR this year was a decent 4.2. I wouldn't call it an awful signing except that it doesn't address their needs. Ellsbury has not had one year as good as an average Cano year. They need help on the left side of the infield, second base, DH, and a couple of starting pitchers. They should get several good years from Ells before the contract becomes an albatross. I guess Cashdollar hasn't learned from the A-Rod, Sabathia, and Teixeira signing.

McCann and Ellsbury are a downgrade from Cano and Granderson.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

The merb mouth breathers notwithstanding, the Ellsbury deal is not playing at all well on sports radio in NYC. Seems the good folks of the Big Apple aren't happy paying big bus for Ells' latter years after he's played his prime in Boston.

Here's a cautionary tale from the NY Post:

The Yankees have invested nearly a quarter of a billion dollars so far this offseason, the most expensive squeeze play in major league history.
The squeeze is supposed to be on Robinson Cano. The Yankees plan here — beyond the obvious, to get better — is to signal to Cano with their finalized signing of Brian McCann for $85 million and their agreement pending a physical with Jacoby Ellsbury for nearly double that ($152 million; $169 million if his eighth-year option vests) that they are spending big this offseason. With or without him.

They want to include Cano. But they are more fervid than a Black Friday consumer and are going to keep buying, even if it means spending money earmarked for Cano and, thus, squeezing him out.

Will the Cano/Jay Z/Brodie Van Wagnenen faction blink? It is one of the big mysteries and storylines of this offseason.

The way the Yankees want this to play out is for Cano to understand they are not going beyond a $189 million payroll for next season. By their calculations, they can fit McCann, Ellsbury, Cano and Hiroki Kuroda into that budget. But they have offers for more than that group out there. So, for example, if they could get Shin-Soo Choo to agree in the near future, they would play Brett Gardner in left, Ellsbury in center, Choo in right, make Alfonso Soriano the DH and get out on Cano.

Just an aside for the conspiratorial among you: Scott Boras represents both Ellsbury and Choo. He tends to wait until later in the winter to sign his best clients, at least until the Winter Meetings. But Ellsbury is all but a Yankee a week before the meetings, and Choo is in play. And, oh yeah, Cano left Boras for Jay Z, who filleted Boras in a rap song.

So if Boras could help himself and his client while potentially evaporating the market for Cano/Jay Z, well … and, by the way, with Ellsbury in, the Yankees are now out on Carlos Beltran, who left Boras for Dan Lozano, another agent who will not be getting a Christmas card from Boras.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program in which the Yankees are hoping to exert pressure on Cano to act swiftly and at their price, which they are willing to take to the seven-year, $170 million range. For this to work, the Yankees need for a market at a higher price not to have formed for Cano and/or for Cano to be too antsy to wait for one to possibly form.

It is a game of chicken, and we are still waiting for the final cluck.

However, you do have to wonder if the Yankees have moved too boldly here, that they have been overpowered by their never-rebuild, win-at-all cost DNA. They didn’t make the playoffs in 2008 and reacted by spending more than $400 million on Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, who helped win a championship the following year, but became problematic long-term.

They missed the playoffs for just the second time in two decades last season and now they have a bad-body catcher — albeit one whose power will play great in Yankee Stadium. And then there is Ellsbury, who the Yankees for a long time felt they had an inexpensive facsimile of with Gardner. Now both are in the same outfield, and as we saw last year with Gardner/Ichiro, the speed does not compensate for the lost power.

Ellsbury hit 32 homers in 2011, but has 33 in his other six seasons combined. Maybe like another Scott Boras-repped Red Sox lefty-hitting center field import, Johnny Damon, his power will grow in the Stadium. But the Yankees paid $52 million for Damon or $101 million less than Ellsbury.

His $21.86 million annual average would be the third highest ever for an outfielder (behind Josh Hamilton and Manny Ramirez) for a player who either is injury prone or been involved in a couple of freak mishaps, is either a big-time defender or not (depending on whom you ask). He is a speed player already beyond his 30th birthday, and you wonder if he or, say, Cano will age worse as we ebb toward 2020 — the year, not hindsight.

Positively, Ellsbury not only is a high-percentage base stealer, but a fearless one who already has proven himself in the Northeast baseball crucible. He was a key performer in the Red Sox’s last two titles.

But he has had one elite season — ONE — or at least five fewer than Cano. Maybe the Yankees can have both — Ellsbury getting on base for Cano to knock in. But if the squeeze-play zeal to land Ellsbury costs Cano, then the Yanks just might end up regretting the strategy.

 

[Special K]

So Rumps..Do the Sox now go after Beltran or Choo?

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

So Rumps..Do the Sox now go after Beltran or Choo?

Dunno. If I were the GM, I'd make sure Napoli returns. That's item 1. I'd be tempted to give Bradley the job myself.

I'd also try to trade for Giancarlo Stanton. Mookie Betts has no future in Boston. Include him. Add Bradley. Likewise Middlebrooks. Throw in one of the pitching prospects, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, Webster, Britton. Add in one lesser prospects. That's 5 controllable cheap players.

If you sign Beltran or Choo, that leaves Bradley out. The only way I'd leave Bradley out of the lineup is if he's dealt for a stud like Stanton.

Back to Ellsbury. Ells hit 9 dingers last year, pretty typical for him. 5 on the road, 4 at home. Let's give him 5 on the road again. Let's take that road 5 and bump it by 20%, which by the way is more than The House that Ruth Didn't Build actually adds. That gives him 11. That's probably the most realistic figure for next year.

 

[Joe.t]

And the potential for 30 plus HR, 50 plus SB, .300 BA, 200 hits, all things that he has done in the past and presto, Hal looks like a fucking genius, I for one don't care what his salary is because I'm not paying him.

 

[EagerBeaver]

I am looking for the Yankees to get out of Ellsbury exactly what they got out of Johnny Damon, which was 4 very good years of production, two 24 homer years to go with a 12 and a 17 homer year, and baserunning which would confound and harass the Phillies in the 2009 World Series, when Johnny took extra bases at his leisure. Ellsbury hit 12 more homers in his best season with the Red Sox than Damon did; this means he has the potential to go higher than Johnny did at Yankees Stadium.

The Yankees are getting Ellsbury 2 years younger than they got Damon, so Ellsbury's production could last 2 years longer - 6 in total. Damon's 2009 season, his last with the Yankees, was his best season. If I am not mistaken, Damon is also of Native American ancestry. Finally, Damon himself has lauded the signing:

http://nesn.com/2013/12/johnny-damo...ury-puts-them-right-back-into-the-race-again/

Damon should know because he was the same kind of player as Ellsbury.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Damon... two 24 homer years to go with a 12 and a 17 homer years,

Prior to joining the Yankees, Johnny Damon hit HR in double figure 7 times; Jacoby Ellsbury 1 time. Only a complete and total moron would expect Jacoby Ellsbury to start doing on a regular basis what he's done but once in his career.

And the potential for 30 plus HR.

Actually he should hit a lot more than 30. Considering his history, and I realize that you're a fan of neither history nor facts, and the fact that he's signed for 7 years, I'd expect him to hit between 60-75 HR.

BTW, If Jaacoby is worth $153 over 7 years, if I'm Robinson Cano, my asking price just went waaaaay up. Never underestimate Brian Cashdollar's ability to do something stupid.

 

[Merlot]

BOYZ!

It is hilarious how it's steroids if Jacoby hits 30 HRs in Boston, but it's just honest batting to hit more than that in New York. Leave it to a Yankee fans to be the biggest hypocrite on Earth. Geeeeez, it's an interesting planet to visit...only to visit.

I was out again after my last post when I heard about Mike Lupica's article on WEEI. It's so close to what I was saying. Basically, the deal is the Yankees being the Yankees in the same old failed way. The only question is: did Cashman just lie about staying under the salary cap threshold...or is it that he just can't stand to have patience after the Red Sox showed him and that awful team up in such an EPIC way by winning the World Series...THRICE!!! I say it's more jealousy, but a bit of both.

Jacoby Ellsbury contract on par with what Yankees always do - overpay

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...y-mega-deal-yankees-yankees-article-1.1536875

This is what happens, exactly what happens, when the Yankees finish out of the playoffs even in a two-wild card world, and attendance is down, and television ratings are down, and their biggest attraction becomes a rich bust-out case like Alex Rodriguez, the Kardashian they had playing third base for them in August and September.

This is what happens when the Red Sox win their third World Series in a decade, against one for the Yankees in that time, a time when they spend more than $200 million a year on baseball players. So now the Yankees go out and agree to a deal with Jacoby Ellsbury for the kind of insane longterm contract that got them into the kind of fix they are in in the first place.

They do the only thing they can do: Try to buy their way out of this. If you were running the team, you would do it exactly that way. You have no real assets in the farm system. You have money. So you spend it.

RELATED: YANKEES AGREE TO 7-YEAR, $153 MILLION DEAL WITH ELLSBURY: SOURCE

So they essentially give six guaranteed years to a new catcher and seven years to Ellsbury, who steals bases and gets on base even if you don’t want to look at what has happened to his home run totals lately. They say they won’t give an 8-year contract or a 10-year contract to Robinson Cano. But they give Jacoby Ellsbury more than $20 million a year for seven years. And will be shocked if they can’t keep him on the field.

The Red Sox win the World Series by putting Shane Victorino with Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia at the top of their lineup, and Ellsbury with Victorino in their outfield, making it a small miracle when somebody would hit one over their heads. Now they put Ellsbury next to Brett Gardner in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. So they sign Ellsbury to the kind of contract that the Red Sox had to unload with Carl Crawford. The reason for this is the best reason in the world:

They can’t let next season be like this season. We all praised how hard they fought and how well Joe Girardi managed. The problem was that not nearly enough people cared.

BASEBALL INSIDER: ELLSBURY DEAL COMES WITH CONCERNS

Always when the Yankees make this kind of play in the past, it was called sheer genius in a company town. Oh sure. In the past, the Yankees would spend money in this insane way — $153 million for Jacoby Ellsbury? Really? — and immediately be declared champions before they even showed up in Tampa for spring training. It won’t happen this time, even if Ellsbury does make them better than signing another AARP guy for their outfield.

But again: They had to do something, whether they end up under the $189 million threshold everybody in town was obsessing about, or not. So they do what they do. They don’t just pay, they overpay. They did it with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira and won a World Series. That offseason cost them over $400 million. They are way past $200 million now and they haven’t reached a deal yet with Cano.

No farm system, no choice. You spend money. Maybe they will get around to spending it on pitching eventually.

RELATED: MADDEN: WHAT THE ELL? YANKS' JACOBY DEAL DOESN'T HAVE LEGS

For now, you know who’s happy when the Yankees get desperate like this? Agents. B-list stars like Ellsbury paid like A-listers. One of the reasons that the Yankees spent $230 million on a baseball team that didn’t make the playoffs this year was because aging stars at the back ends of their contracts weren’t close to being the players they were when they got the contracts. Jeter was hurt, A-Rod played two months, Sabathia was just another pitcher.

The Yankees get grinders like Ellsbury and a tough catcher like Brian McCann who can hit home runs and might hit a bunch at Yankee Stadium, and think they can out-grind the Red Sox next summer. And overlook the fact that the Red Sox didn’t just grind and beard their way to another World Series, they pitched their way there, with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz when he was healthy and Jake Peavy and John Lackey once again becoming the guy who started and won a Game 7 of the World Series for the Angels when he was a kid.

So the Yankees give too many years to a catcher and too many years and too much money to Ellsbury, a fast exciting player who gets hurt. In the season that earned him this contract, he played 134 games. The season before he played 74. He can also play 158 games in a season. We will see where we are with this in a year or two. Or four.

RELATED: STAR WARS: ELLSBURY LATEST DEFECTION IN SOX-YANKS RIVALRY

This is what the Yankees do. This is what they do, and who they are, and you can’t fault them for being who they are. The big play for the Red Sox last winter, financially, was Victorino, and people thought Boston was overpaying him at $39 million for three years. The Yankees top that by more than $100 million with Ellsbury.

They give him the kind of contract that the Red Sox had to get out from under to win the World Series again.

It doesn’t mean that Ellsbury won’t be as much fun to watch as Johnny Damon was when the Yankees got him out of Boston. If Ellsbury helps the Yankees back into the playoffs, the Yankees won’t give a rip about if or when he breaks down at the end of this contract. That would involve taking the long view. There is no such thing at Yankee Stadium.

The joke used to be that the Yankee farm system was the All-Star Game. Now it’s a World Series in Boston.

..."and immediately be declared champions before they even showed up in Tampa for spring training."

damn is that so familiar. :lol:

Cheers,

Merlot

 

[EagerBeaver]

Prior to joining the Yankees, Johnny Damon hit HR in double figure 7 times; Jacoby Ellsbury 1 time. Only a complete and total moron would expect Jacoby Ellsbury to start doing on a regular basis what he's done but once in his career.

Not a valid statistical analysis since Ellsbury played 150 games or more in only 2 of those years. The truth is we don't know what he will do, but an expectation of Damon-like stats, if he stays healthy, is reasonable.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Not a valid statistical analysis since Ellsbury played 150 games or more in only 2 of those years. The truth is we don't know what he will do, but an expectation of Damon-like stats, if he stays healthy, is reasonable.

No, we don't know what he will do, but considering that in 3 of his 4 full seasons in the bigs, he hit fewer than 10 home runs, I think we have a pretty good idea.

Tell me, Beav. I know you Merb Mouthbreathers will NEVER in a million years accept that the Yankees could make a bad move, but answer this for me. How come the Ellsbury signing is being hammered in the NY press and on talk radio in NY? The articles quoted above, by Joel Sherman and Mike Lupica, two of the most respected writers covering the Yanks, are just two examples.

Do you realize that the Yankees are paying Ellsbury just as much as they've offered Robinson Cano? Is Cashman really stupid enough to think that Ellsbury is as good and valuable as Cano?

Are you aware that Shane Victorino, whose $39M contract is approximately 25% of Ellsbury's, had a WAR last year 50% higher than Ellsbury?

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Here's Bill Madden of the Daily News panning the deal:

So here’s what happened: In the midst of a whirlwind day in which their two top priority free agents, Robinson Cano and Carlos Beltran, were rumored to have received offers far in excess of what they were willing to pay, the Yankees instead wind up landing Jacoby Ellsbury for seven years, $153 million and deal a potentially major blow to their arch-rival Red Sox.

Or was it?

No question the 30-year-old Ellsbury, coming off an outstanding season in which he hit .298 with a league-leading 52 stolen bases and an on-base percentage of .355, was one of the elite free agents on the market this winter in an otherwise mediocre class, and a key component in the Red Sox’s remarkable run from last place to world champions. But, as history has proven, contracts of more than six years for players 30 or older have proven time and again to be disasters, especially with “legs” players such as Ellsbury.

There is no better evidence of that than the seven-year, $142 million contract the Red Sox bestowed on then 29-year-old Carl Crawford three years ago when he was coming off a season in which he hit .307 with 90 RBI, 110 runs and a league-leading 13 triples. In the three years since, Crawford, beset by injuries, has hit .255, .282 and .283 with 65, 23 and 62 runs scored, respectively, and 56, 19 and 31 RBI. In his eight-plus years with the Tampa Bay Rays, Crawford had had only one season in which he missed an inordinate amount of time to injuries.

By contrast, Ellsbury missed nearly all of 2010 with fractured ribs and much of 2012 with what was called a shoulder subluxation.

Obviously, the word that Beltran was closing in on a three-year, $48 million deal with his original team, the Kansas City Royals, prompted the Yankees to re-address their outfield while they remained more than $40 million apart with Cano, who was said to be aggressively pursued by the Seattle Mariners.

Supposedly, the Mariners were willing to more than meet Cano’s demands from the Yankees of eight years, $200 million. If nothing else, Cano’s agent, Jay Z, has finally taken a page out of the Scott Boras handbook by coming up with a mystery bidder to create a market for Cano.

Yankees hope that the champagne flows soon with Ellsbury (l.) now in the fold, because with his injury history and reliance on speed, his contract may not look very good in a few years.


Will the Yankees, who have held fairly steadfast on their reported offer of seven years/$160 million for Cano, now bite? It appears they will. While denying the Ellsbury deal was done Tuesday night, Yankee officials were also saying they could still sign both Ellsbury and Cano and remain under the $189 million luxury tax payroll threshold next year. And sign the Japanese pitching prodigy Masahiro Tanaka as well? Why not?

At the same time, the Yankees have privately been saying that their offer to Cano – essentially an annual average value of $23 million – is more than in line with the highest-paid players in the game, given the fact that Cano has never won an MVP award.

The seven highest annual average value paid players in the game, Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M), Justin Verlander ($27M), Albert Pujols ($25.4M) Ryan Howard ($25.5M), Josh Hamilton ($24.6M), Felix Hernandez ($25M), Zack Greinke ($24.5M) and Cliff Lee ($24M) have all either won MVP or Cy Young awards.

In A-Rod’s case, he’d won three MVPs, two with the Yankees, and had not yet admitted doing PEDs, and was the acknowledged best player in the game when the Yankees signed him to that 10-year, $275 million extension in late 2007 they are now so regretting. In the case of all the position players – A-Rod, Pujols, Howard and Hamilton – the contracts are already looking like financial boondoggles, and you can throw Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million deal in there, too.

I’m just not sure what the Yankees are trying to prove here. Now they’ve agreed with Ellsbury on a $21.8 million per year deal that will almost certainly be another financial disaster three or four years down the road, while giving them another “legs” player in the outfield when what they really needed there was a power bat. What happens to Brett Gardner? Are they trying to send a message to Cano that, if he doesn’t come drastically off his eight-year, $25 million per year demands, they’re moving on? Is this their way of saying to the Red Sox: “We’re back!”?

Whatever, this reckless, show-their-financial-might signing by the Yankees makes no sense, other than being another example of the Yankees’ intention of buying their way out of a situation in which their player development department has been bankrupt for years.

I suspect, before this winter is finished, the Red Sox will have some sort of countermove to compensate for the loss of Ellsbury at the same time, feeling the same sense of relief they felt when they were able to unload Crawford’s contract on the Dodgers, and the same sense of relief the Cardinals felt when Angels owner Arte Moreno outbid them for their 30-year-old franchise player, Pujols.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Here's Ken Davidoff of the NY Post hammering the deal. It's unanimous among the Merb mouth breathers: signing Ellsbury is a great deal. It's unanimous on Planet Earth: another huge Cashman mistake.

No tears at Fenway over Ellsbury’s defection
By Ken Davidoff December 4, 2013

The Red Sox figured Jacoby Ellsbury would leave them for greener pastures this winter. They just didn’t anticipate their two-time World Series winner would shoot down to The Bronx.

Yet if any heartbreak or terror emanated from Fenway Park, or even from greater Red Sox Nation, it didn’t make its way down here. If Johnny Damon’s Rivalry defection eight years ago generated fury, like when your spouse leaves you for your mortal enemy, this felt more like bemusement, as if your ex from a long-completed relationship shows up dating your eccentric cousin.

And that speaks to the heart of this matter: The Yankees have committed seven years and $153 million to a core player from their chief adversaries, and those adversaries — the defending World Series champions, by the way — don’t sound distressed whatsoever, based on the conversations I had with industry folks on Wednesday.

The Yankees have spent the last year lamenting their lack of roster and payroll flexibility, and as soon as they had the chance, they dove head-first right back into the quicksand.

You can see what the Yankees were thinking. Ellsbury, when healthy, is a high-impact, multi-dimensional, middle-of-the-field player who has earned American League East battle scars, not to mention two rings.

Then why did the Red Sox’s discussions with Ellsbury rise only to the level of five years and $80 million? Partly because the Red Sox put themselves in the position of not being desperate, thanks to the development of Jackie Bradley Jr., the ability of Shane Victorino to switch from right field to center field and the financial might to play the market for a free-agent outfielder. That’s to Boston’s credit.

But also because, having lived with Ellsbury all this time, they simply didn’t value him at anything approaching the Yankees’ valuation.

Ellsbury averaged 96 games played in the prior four seasons — 18 in 2010, 158 in 2011, 74 in 2012 and 134 this past season. The missed time resulted from accidents, rather than recurring injuries, but you either are good at staying on the field or you aren’t, and Ellsbury ‘s track record in this area is shaky.

As for personality fit… again, he can handle the Northeast. He won’t wilt a la Carl Crawford in Boston. But he isn’t going to bring intangibles beyond the field. One talent evaluator from an AL team described Ellsbury as a “neutral” in terms of clubhouse contributions. He isn’t a bad guy by anyone’s accounts. But for $153 million, he isn’t going to provide much beyond the field.

Let’s put it this way: when you factor in statistical reliability and personality fit, two of the Yankees’ megadeals from five years ago — seven years and $161 million for CC Sabathia and eight years and $180 million for Mark Teixeira — come off as better bets than this Ellsbury pact.

The Yankees were reluctant to commit three years to Carlos Beltran, and that, too, makes sense. But the beauty of a three-year contract compared to one for seven years is, well… it’s four years shorter. The Yankees re-upped a year ago with Ichiro Suzuki for two years, an immediate mistake. It’s halfway over now, though, whereas Teixiera and Sabathia each has three years left — Sabathia extended his deal by a year in 2011 — and we haven’t even dropped Alex Rodriguez’s name yet.

The club appears terrified of going past seven years with Robinson Cano, one of the game’s most durable and accomplished players who has proven his functionality in the Yankees’ world. And somehow seven years for Ellsbury, a stranger with an injury history and little power, is supposed to prompt a celebration.

Maybe Brian McCann, set to be introduced at a Yankee Stadium news conference Thursday, and Ellsbury will be immediate hits just as Sabathia and Teixeira were. If you’re a Yankees fan, though, you sure hope you’re not shaking your head at this deal five years from now the way you do at Sabathia and Teixeira. And you probably wish, too, the Red Sox felt a little worse about this development.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Looks like the Yanks are set at second base:


Yankees agree to one-year contract with Kelly Johnson

The New York Yankees landed a much needed insurance policy on Wednesday when they agreed to a one-year, $3 million deal with free agent Kelly Johnson. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman was the first to report the agreement was in place.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

A few shared thought from Buster Olney:

Based on conversations with executives in the sport, I’d guess the Yankees outbid other serious suitors -- teams that had a legit shot to land Jacoby Ellsbury -- by something in the range of $40 million to $50 million. But just as it happened with CC Sabathia, this is the way it had to be if they were going to take the player off the board in early December.

As one GM noted: "If Scott [Boras] signs a big free agent this early [in the offseason), it means it's bad for the team."

The wide perception within the industry is that the Yankees overpaid for Ellsbury, and a question asked all over is whether the additional money spent to finish the deal for the center fielder will impede their ability to re-sign Robinson Cano.

"If it turns out that they could have had Cano for $200 million, or $210 million, and they wouldn’t go beyond $170 million, then that’s confusing, because Cano is clearly the preferred player," said one evaluator.

Said another: "I’d rather overpay Cano than Ellsbury, because Cano has posted up" -- meaning he’s stayed healthy and remained in the lineup.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Actually, I think you have cited a bunch of ninnies who don't get that this may actually be a deliberate overpayment designed to show Cano they don't have the money for him, and that and the signing of Johnson then caves the demand on Cano, because it effectively takes the Yankees out as players for bigger money in the eyes of the league. I still think the Yankees will sign Cano. The strategy here is overpay Ellsbury in order to get Cano cheaper. It may work- it's a a bold and aggressive move, but that is what you do in games of high stakes poker.

By the ways the Yankees overpaid on Damon as well, and the Red Sox grossly overpaid on Crawford, Lackey and Matsuzaka, among others. The issue is not the overpayment. We all know it was an overpayment and that all of these guys were overpaid. The issue is what flows from that overpayment. And the answer is still to be determined. You are only looking at step 1, like all the ninny writers you cited, and not steps 2, 3 and 4. The same guys were writing the same BS after the 2008 signings, and then praising them after the 2009 World Series. It is the kind of short sighted idiocy that sells newspapers, but does not determine what will actually happen.

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

The strategy here is overpay Ellsbury in order to get Cano cheaper. It may work- it's a a bold and aggressive move, but that is what you do in games of high stakes poker.

You know, Beav, you've said an enormous amount of stupid shit in this thread over the years, but this takes the cake. The only thing giving Ellsbury $23.5 million a year tells Cano is that he's worth $30. If you give Ellsbury $153, there's no way you can tell Cano he's not worth $230.

So ALL the writers who cover the Yankees for the New York papers are ninnies?

The strategy here is overpay Ellsbury in order to get Cano cheaper.

I'm sorry, but even you can't believe something this historically stupid.

By the ways the Yankees overpaid on Damon as well, and the Red Sox grossly overpaid on Crawford, Lackey and Matsuzaka, among others.

True on Matsuzaka and Crawford, though they gave Crawford a whole lot less than the new Ellsbury deal. Fortunately, the brilliant Cherington got someone else to take on the bulk of that deal. Not so true on Lackey. Considering his last year, his first year, and the $500,000 option on 2015 the Sox were genius enough to get Lackey to sign on to, if he pitches half as well the next two years as he did in 2013, Lackey will prove to have been a very reasonable signing.