Coronavirus

[2fast2slow]

its too bad we can't include picts in our posts because, as the old saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words.

If I could post a picture, it would be the one of a graph showing mortality rates as a function of age. Up to 50 years old, people basically just dont die from this disease. Up to 50 years old, the mortality rate amongst known infected people is 0.2% - that is 1/500. In other words, the actual rate if you include non-tested people is assuredly much lower, like 1/1000, 1/2000 or even 1/5000.

I think it is safe to say, that providers of sexual services are at an extremely low risk - since their median age must be in the 20s, it is only some of us old fucks on this board who are slightly at risk.

So please, stop the fear-mongering. If you want to scare people, do it somewhere else, you are not helping our community. Do it on 65+punters.com.

here is the graph I cannot directly include in this post if one is interested.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coron...SARS-COV-2_Case_Fatality_Rate_200228_01-1.png

 

[Morris Wanchuk]

If you are younger than 50 and get the virus,
Yes ,the odds are you will come out of it ok,
However you are now a carrier and every old person or young person with a low immune system will be at risk just by you breathing on them.
Then they get really sick and they flood the emergency rooms and hospitals.
Now , when any person gets in a serious car accident
or some serious home accident that has them going to the hospital, there's no beds available except maybe in a tent in the parking lot.
Aids was a death sentence in the 1980s and gays kept on fucking each other in the ass with no condoms, drug addicts kept sharing needles. President Reagan did shit. Then it got into the blood banks and "innocent" people starting dying.

It's up to you. You want to try to put off getting the virus as long as possible.
You could get it on the metro from a quick cough from an Italian guy coming from the airport or you could get it from a beautiful sw walking into your room, who 30 minutes ago had her mouth around that Italian guy's cock.

 

[C.B. Brown]

I think it is safe to say, that providers of sexual services are at an extremely low risk - png

your trying to tell me somone who has had more cocks in them than a banana tree has bananaa is low risk.
show me a 20 yr old who uses a condom all the time cause they all think they are invincable
a high volume escort can see 50 guys a week thats 2600 gfe sour dicks a year
and many of their clients else other sexorts as well so each peson each person comes into contact with their germs are attched to each other
with the occasional std

well donald trump did good trump floats payroll tax cut am opened 1000 points up
116,307 case world wide which is 10,000 more than saturday
4089 deaths 5788 people in criticle condition
iran up 881 cases today
italy table at 9172 cases

government of canada web page with information updated daily
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

ovince or territory	Confirmed cases
Ontario	34
British Columbia	32
Quebec	4
Alberta	7
Total cases:	77

 

[cloudsurf]

No need to stress over toilet paper even if you and your family are quarantined for a month a six pack will be enough.
Besides there are billions of trees in Canada that are ready to be pulped into poop wipes.
Drugs are another matter since 80% have ingredients that are manufactured in China and India . Critical supplies have and are being squeezed.

 

[2fast2slow]

im not saying they will not get exposed to the virus or that they will not catch it, only that they ate not at risk of getting very sick and/or dying. if you are in your 20s, it will be like a nuissance cold thats all. kids and teens dont even get sick

 

[The Nature Boy]

Kids and teens are getting sick, although it is @ a waaaaay less frequency than others.

 

[C.B. Brown]

im not saying they will not get exposed to the virus or that they will not catch it, only that they ate not at risk of getting very sick and/or dying. if you are in your 20s, it will be like a nuissance cold thats all. kids and teens dont even get sick

Specialist said 1 in 1000 perfectly healthy 25 yr olds will get it and die unexplained
and don't forget you can catch this apparently more than 1x which is different according to 1 news report
and there is a risk it could mutate to a deadlier form

 

[hungry101]

According to Dr. Oz, a virus will mutate to become more contagious and not to become more deadly. If the host dies the virus dies too. This one already has mutated and is highly contagious. Clam down. We've already lost 17,000 to the non-Corona flu this year and some years we lose 71,000. So far Corona has claimed 26 victims. Maybe you should be whipping up fear for the non-Corona flu? 0.1%? Those are good odds.

 

[C.B. Brown]

Meanwhile, the flu. Deadly, but boring.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-flu-killed-20-000-011523876.html

hopefully its over reaction but recent numbers are bad
China 80,761 +26 3,136 +17
Italy 10,149 +977 631 +168
Iran 8,042 +881 291 +54
S. Korea 7,513 +35 58
France 1,784 +372 33 +3
Spain 1,690 +459 35 +5

 

[EagerBeaver]

Because of Coronavirus, the Ivy League has cancelled the men’s and women’s postseason basketball tournaments, which usually determine automatic bids to the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Instead, regular season men’s champ Yale and regular season women’s champ Princeton will be awarded those bids- assuming the NCAA Tournament is played, which I think it will be.

This result sucks for the Harvard men’s basketball team. They finished #2 to Yale and were denied the chance to win the Ivy League tournament. Similarly the Yale women were denied.

The impact on the sports world is already being felt with cancellation of tennis and basketball tournaments and restrictions to locker rooms, in the NBA, NHL, MLB and MLS.

 

[C.B. Brown]

Meanwhile, the flu. Deadly, but boring.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-flu-killed-20-000-011523876.html

[h=1]Is the Coronavirus Worse Than the Flu? Here's How the 2 Illnesses Compare[/h]
patron in answer to your statement this corona virus has the potential to be much worse than flue
incubation period of flue is fast you see someohe is sick a person with corona 2-14 days in other words a perfect healthy looking person can infect endless people


https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-worse-than-flu

 

[C.B. Brown]

[h=1]How the coronavirus compares to SARS, swine flu, Zika, and other epidemics[/h]https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-sars-swine-flu-mers-zika-2020-3
There have been more than 113,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, and it has a mortality rate of 3.4%, according to the latest data.

 

[IamNY]

Because of Coronavirus, the Ivy League has cancelled the men’s and women’s postseason basketball tournaments, which usually determine automatic bids to the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

Bomani Jones on ESPN’s High Noon show was trying to spin this decision because the Ivy League could easily cancel the games based on them not needing or relying on the cash it would have brought in because the schools already have plenty of money. Unlike the NCAA tournament not canceling the March Madness games because with the NCAA it’s all about the money and they don’t give a shit about the people.

Interesting spin, but spin none the less.

 

[EagerBeaver]

Bomani Jones is correct about the financial aspect of the cancellation. I personally think it creates a bad precedent when the rich conferences can afford to cancel their tournament but the other conferences who aren’t as well endowed play on, even before smaller crowds. I know a lot of UConn fans who aren’t flying to Dallas-Fort Worth for the AAC tournament because they are worried the games will be cancelled and that would mean money on airfare and hotels for nothing.

 

[hungry101]

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think

Don’t hoard masks and food. Figure out how to help seniors and the immunosuppressed stay healthy.

There are many compelling reasons to conclude that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is not nearly as deadly as is currently feared. But COVID-19 panic has set in nonetheless. You can’t find hand sanitizer in stores, and N95 face masks are being sold online for exorbitant prices, never mind that neither is the best way to protect against the virus (yes, just wash your hands). The public is behaving as if this epidemic is the next Spanish flu, which is frankly understandable given that initial reports have staked COVID-19 mortality at about 2–3 percent, quite similar to the 1918 pandemic that killed tens of millions of people.

Allow me to be the bearer of good news. These frightening numbers are unlikely to hold. The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. If anything, it underscores just how early we are in this.


But the most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise outbreak and subsequent quarantine off the coast of Japan.

A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled. We know that all but one patient boarded the boat without the virus. We know that the other passengers were healthy enough to travel. We know their whereabouts and exposures. While the numbers coming out of China are scary, we don’t know how many of those patients were already ill for other reasons. How many were already hospitalized for another life-threatening illness and then caught the virus? How many were completely healthy, caught the virus, and developed a critical illness? In the real world, we just don’t know.


Here’s the problem with looking at mortality numbers in a general setting: In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. A significant fraction of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the death rate from COVID-19 in China spiked precisely among the same age groups in which these chronic diseases first become common. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke. How were doctors supposed to sort out which of those 25 out of 25,000 daily deaths were solely due to coronavirus, and which were more complicated? What we need to know is how many excess deaths this virus causes.


This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low). Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were detected in China. This alone suggests a halving of the virus’s true fatality rate.

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.

The data from the Diamond Princess suggest an eightfold lower mortality amongst patients older than 70 and threefold lower mortality in patients over 80 compared to what was reported in China initially. But even those numbers, 1.1 percent and 4.9 percent respectively, are concerning. But there’s another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols. It’s also worth noting that while cruise passengers can be assumed to be healthy enough to travel, they actually tend to reflect the general population, and many patients with chronic illnesses go on cruises. So, the numbers from this ship may be reasonable estimates.


This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported. Given the low mortality rate among younger patients with coronavirus—zero in children 10 or younger among hundreds of cases in China, and 0.2-0.4 percent in most healthy nongeriatric adults (and this is still before accounting for what is likely to be a high number of undetected asymptomatic cases)—we need to divert our focus away from worrying about preventing systemic spread among healthy people—which is likely either inevitable, or out of our control—and commit most if not all of our resources toward protecting those truly at risk of developing critical illness and even death: everyone over 70, and people who are already at higher risk from this kind of virus.

This still largely comes down to hygiene and isolation. But in particular, we need to focus on the right people and the right places. Nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes. We need to up the hygienic and isolation ante primarily around the subset of people who can’t simply contract SARS-CoV-2 and ride it out the way healthy people should be able to.

Yes, this disease is real. And, yes, there truly do appear to be vulnerable patients among us, those far more likely to develop critical illness from it. And that relatively small subset, if infected in high numbers, could add up to a tragically high number of fatalities if we fail to adequately protect them.

The good news is that we have huge advantages to leverage: We already know all of this and have learned it remarkably quickly. We know how this virus spreads. We know how long people are contagious. We know who the most vulnerable patients are likely to be, and where they are.

Healthy people who are hoarding food, masks, and hand sanitizer may feel like they are doing the right thing. But, all good intentions aside, these actions probably represent misdirected anxieties. When such efforts are not directly in service of protecting the right people, not only do they miss the point of everything we have learned so far, they may actually unwittingly be squandering what have suddenly become precious and limited resources.

 

[Aficionado]

I sure would not like to own a massage parlor at times like this.

As a matter of fact, I was asked last Friday by an Asian MP if I traveled abroad lately.............. funny, I replied I should be the one asking.

 

[The Nature Boy]

They just postponed Coachella, hope the line up stays the same in October, was looking forward to seeing Rage

 

[jalimon]

I have been out for a week with minimal check up on anything but can anyone explain to me why people are stocking up their garage full of toilet paper??

I mean last I know this is not a gastroenteritis pandemic...

 

[2fast2slow]

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think

Don’t hoard masks and food. Figure out how to help seniors and the immunosuppressed stay healthy.

excellent piece. Sums up the situation perfectly. Healthy people have nothing to fear. We should concentrate our concerns on the elderly or people with co-morbitities.

 

[henri007]

check if you took public transportation on 24/2 and 06/3. https://montrealgazette.com/news/lo...ecer-with-covid-19-travelled-by-metro-and-bus