What you need to ask, and tell us, is whether pre Covid-19 pandemic, there were 460 total empty hospital beds in Quebec. Hospitals should know what their typical bed occupancy rates are. If it is typically 460 or less empty beds, then your system is on the cusp of being overwhelmed.
Coronavirus
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What you need to ask, and tell us, is whether pre Covid-19 pandemic, there were 460 total empty hospital beds in Quebec. Hospitals should know what their typical bed occupancy rates are. If it is typically 460 or less empty beds, then your system is on the cusp of being overwhelmed.
EB I wrote 1460 and not 460. But I do not see your point regarding empty beds versus the current situation? Hospital in canada know there capacity perfectly well, and knew they needed to prepare for the worst.
But still that is not the point. The point is for 1 patient hospitalized with the virus nearly 3 health workers caught it. That is a huge problem!
But still that is not the point. The point is for 1 patient hospitalized with the virus nearly 3 health workers caught it. That is a huge problem!
Jalimon it's simple math. If you have 1,460 empty hospital beds in Quebec before the pandemic then you can absorb the cases you have without being overwhelmed. If less than 1,460 then you are on the cusp of being overwhelmed. That's the point. This is what you need to find out and report to us.
The presidents statement along with him trying to play it back as a joke was pretty foolish, I agree. But, what’s really happening is that CNN and MSDNC are jumping all over the least important part of the press conference so that the public doesn’t hear about the good stuff that Bill Bryan, the head of the science and technology directorate at the Department of Homeland Security was saying.
There was good news that came out of the press conference, but the Trump haters would rather report the bullshit instead of something good for a change:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-coronavirus-sunlight-heat-and-humidity
CNN should relax man. You know there’s gonna be some fucking stupid Trump supporter who is gonna try n inject Lysol or some shit to prove the “Fake Media” wrong. It’s @ a point where they are zooming in and giving face slow mo’s of Dr. Birx when she was asked by trump, a bit too much
I dont agree. It's Trump himself that tried to be smarter then everyone but made a complete fool of himself, again, and that put the good news under the radar. He is a complete idiot of COURSE the media will jump on it.
He needs to lead by being a leader that is truthful and rigorous. Unfortunately he is a complete phony. A fucking joke.
Common sense from Wall Street Journal columnist, Holman Jenkins.
The Lockdowns Were the Black Swan
How and why we went from ‘flatten the curve’ to choosing between our economy and the virus.
wsj.com
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
April 24, 2020 5:56 pm
To some the coronavirus is a supporting actor in a drama titled “The Iniquities of Donald Trump.” Those of more balanced mind wonder whether Mr. Trump’s failings can be distinguished from the predictable and expected failings of the U.S. government.
But it’s unlikely Mr. Trump will seem important to historians telling the story. Columbia University once found that 20% of flu sufferers and 5% of cold sufferers bothered to see a doctor. This is why the Wuhan virus was destined to go world-wide even if China had been upfront or an American president had been clairvoyant. Every bit of data since has confirmed it. Infectious respiratory diseases are a fact of nature. Beijing was finally driven to action by the same consideration that drove other countries to action—when the number of infected people and the duration of their cases overwhelmed a local hospital system.
SBSCRIBE
This is the proximate crisis that called for a public response around the world. Novel pandemic diseases are not a black swan. Our lockdown response was a black swan.
We started off sensibly. “This is not something [American families] generally need to worry about,” said CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier in mid-January. “It’s a very, very low risk to the United States,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci a week later.
Bill de Blasio, mayor of New York, urged residents to go about their business normally as recently as March 11.
As coldblooded as it seems, these were the right statements at the time. Under “flatten the curve,” changes in public behavior aren’t needed until they are needed. Roll that around in your mind a bit. The better we do at equipping local hospitals, the less we need to bankrupt local businesses and their workers to slow the virus as it runs its course through society. That was the idea we started with.
Not even the U.K. Imperial College study that so alarmed the world’s policy makers recommended indiscriminate lockdowns and shelter-in-place orders. If we meant what we said, we’ve overshot in many places. Beds are empty. A ventilator shortage did not materialize. We failed to set aside enough capacity to treat other medical conditions like strokes and heart attacks. This is costing lives.
What happened? From Bill Gates to your local editorialist, a new priority waddled to the fore. We decided that, whatever contributes to killing Americans at a routine total rate of 8,000 or so a day, it shouldn’t be the coronavirus.
Accidents, yes—6% of deaths. Heart disease, yes—23%. Flu and pneumonia, yes—20%.
These deaths are allowed but not deaths from the coronavirus even at the cost of economic ruin for millions. Of course the media and public are free to decide now they never wanted flatten the curve; they wanted to be spared the virus altogether. But explain how this is to be done. And explain why. The Economist magazine says we can’t restart the economy without an “unprecedented” $180 billion testing regime. Unprecedented is an interesting word because China, a country of 1.4 billion people with eight cities larger than New York, either must have developed such a system with nobody noticing or hasn’t found it necessary.
With its porous southern border, with its nine million overseas citizens who can come home whenever they want, the U.S. isn’t New Zealand. Even so, I wonder if New Zealand a year from now will think it was sensible to seal itself off from the world to avoid a disease that may not be more deadly for the average person than the flu and certainly will not be extinguished elsewhere.
U.S. politicians, sensitive to their survival in office, are stuck trying to save their constituents simultaneously from the virus and poverty, and get only cheap shots from the media. Restarting the economy will lead to more coronavirus deaths—and more motor-vehicle deaths, more workplace deaths, even flu deaths.
What Americans need now is not another celebrity ad repeating the unsustainable “stay at home” mantra. They need detailed advice from government about how transmission does and does not occur (do masks help? are surface residues a significant threat? does infection confer immunity?) so they can learn to live with a virus that isn’t going away at least until a vaccine is developed.
And, for God’s sake, the media should stop confusing “infection fatality rate” with “case fatality rate,” grotesquely misleading the public on the true death rate. It’s hard to see why anybody would even report case fatality rate, a number without meaning since most of those tested either had celebrity access to testing or symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization (i.e., the equivalent of counting drunks and people who drive blue Austin-Healeys to estimate the risk of dying in a car accident).
Notice I have not mentioned Donald Trump since the second paragraph, because he has yet to find a way to be particularly relevant to this story—which I know will be shocking to readers who think the failings of Mr. Trump dwarf all other narratives.
The Lockdowns Were the Black Swan
How and why we went from ‘flatten the curve’ to choosing between our economy and the virus.
wsj.com
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
April 24, 2020 5:56 pm
To some the coronavirus is a supporting actor in a drama titled “The Iniquities of Donald Trump.” Those of more balanced mind wonder whether Mr. Trump’s failings can be distinguished from the predictable and expected failings of the U.S. government.
But it’s unlikely Mr. Trump will seem important to historians telling the story. Columbia University once found that 20% of flu sufferers and 5% of cold sufferers bothered to see a doctor. This is why the Wuhan virus was destined to go world-wide even if China had been upfront or an American president had been clairvoyant. Every bit of data since has confirmed it. Infectious respiratory diseases are a fact of nature. Beijing was finally driven to action by the same consideration that drove other countries to action—when the number of infected people and the duration of their cases overwhelmed a local hospital system.
SBSCRIBE
This is the proximate crisis that called for a public response around the world. Novel pandemic diseases are not a black swan. Our lockdown response was a black swan.
We started off sensibly. “This is not something [American families] generally need to worry about,” said CDC’s Dr. Nancy Messonnier in mid-January. “It’s a very, very low risk to the United States,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci a week later.
Bill de Blasio, mayor of New York, urged residents to go about their business normally as recently as March 11.
As coldblooded as it seems, these were the right statements at the time. Under “flatten the curve,” changes in public behavior aren’t needed until they are needed. Roll that around in your mind a bit. The better we do at equipping local hospitals, the less we need to bankrupt local businesses and their workers to slow the virus as it runs its course through society. That was the idea we started with.
What happened? From Bill Gates to your local editorialist, a new priority waddled to the fore. We decided that, whatever contributes to killing Americans at a routine total rate of 8,000 or so a day, it shouldn’t be the coronavirus.
Accidents, yes—6% of deaths. Heart disease, yes—23%. Flu and pneumonia, yes—20%.
These deaths are allowed but not deaths from the coronavirus even at the cost of economic ruin for millions. Of course the media and public are free to decide now they never wanted flatten the curve; they wanted to be spared the virus altogether. But explain how this is to be done. And explain why. The Economist magazine says we can’t restart the economy without an “unprecedented” $180 billion testing regime. Unprecedented is an interesting word because China, a country of 1.4 billion people with eight cities larger than New York, either must have developed such a system with nobody noticing or hasn’t found it necessary.
With its porous southern border, with its nine million overseas citizens who can come home whenever they want, the U.S. isn’t New Zealand. Even so, I wonder if New Zealand a year from now will think it was sensible to seal itself off from the world to avoid a disease that may not be more deadly for the average person than the flu and certainly will not be extinguished elsewhere.
U.S. politicians, sensitive to their survival in office, are stuck trying to save their constituents simultaneously from the virus and poverty, and get only cheap shots from the media. Restarting the economy will lead to more coronavirus deaths—and more motor-vehicle deaths, more workplace deaths, even flu deaths.
What Americans need now is not another celebrity ad repeating the unsustainable “stay at home” mantra. They need detailed advice from government about how transmission does and does not occur (do masks help? are surface residues a significant threat? does infection confer immunity?) so they can learn to live with a virus that isn’t going away at least until a vaccine is developed.
And, for God’s sake, the media should stop confusing “infection fatality rate” with “case fatality rate,” grotesquely misleading the public on the true death rate. It’s hard to see why anybody would even report case fatality rate, a number without meaning since most of those tested either had celebrity access to testing or symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization (i.e., the equivalent of counting drunks and people who drive blue Austin-Healeys to estimate the risk of dying in a car accident).
Notice I have not mentioned Donald Trump since the second paragraph, because he has yet to find a way to be particularly relevant to this story—which I know will be shocking to readers who think the failings of Mr. Trump dwarf all other narratives.
The U.S. death toll has passed 50,000, but as this data demonstrates, mortality rates are MUCH higher in Italy and Spain:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52415579
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52415579
Even Trump knows that injecting bleach to cure coronavirus is ridiculous. As usual, he’s manipulating the media and public.
Trump is distracting us from news reports that he owes millions to the Bank of China, a loan that is due in his 2nd term. Make no mistake about this, Trump is a dangerous political animal that will do anything to win.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/trump-biden-china-debt-205475
Trump is distracting us from news reports that he owes millions to the Bank of China, a loan that is due in his 2nd term. Make no mistake about this, Trump is a dangerous political animal that will do anything to win.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/trump-biden-china-debt-205475
I don't remember who posted that link to Radio-Quebec but thanks a lot. It makes a lot of sense and i been following the guy since.
Im happy they finally started talking herd immunity and opening back stuff. Its a process we have to go trough.
This virus is not the T-Virus guys... its not you get it you die. Its a tiny more severe than a severe pneumonia and more contagious. But the reality is out of the 20k something confirmed case in Quebec. Probably you can double that to get true numbers on how much peoples did got it (but were never tested/reported) . Peoples tend to forget how much peoples dies each year from the flu.
In Canada its 3500 per year. Right now eveeybody that dies is counted as covid 19 so it inflate stats.
Medias spreaded fear (and i was the first to fall for it) and now even the gov says deconfaniment and immunity of society is the only option. Gonna be hard to change the mind of scared peoples but in a way thats what they want to "flatten the curve". They don't want everybody out at same time.
Im happy they finally started talking herd immunity and opening back stuff. Its a process we have to go trough.
This virus is not the T-Virus guys... its not you get it you die. Its a tiny more severe than a severe pneumonia and more contagious. But the reality is out of the 20k something confirmed case in Quebec. Probably you can double that to get true numbers on how much peoples did got it (but were never tested/reported) . Peoples tend to forget how much peoples dies each year from the flu.
In Canada its 3500 per year. Right now eveeybody that dies is counted as covid 19 so it inflate stats.
Medias spreaded fear (and i was the first to fall for it) and now even the gov says deconfaniment and immunity of society is the only option. Gonna be hard to change the mind of scared peoples but in a way thats what they want to "flatten the curve". They don't want everybody out at same time.
HM currently there is no scientific study that proves that there is immunity for this virus. South Korea published a report that a bit more then 200 got reinfected by the virus. They are currently studying why.
Cheers,
p.s. You should follow scientific studies instead of "charlatan" like the Radio-Quebec dude.
Very true. And that's why there's the emoluments clause, which has not been followed by this administration. A foreign adversary & a world power now literally owns the President of the United States. His survival literally depends on the Chinese. He knows & they know it. And more & more people are finding this out. They have him cornered. Will he sell the country out in order to save his own skin? Don't bet against it!
Sounds like a typical CNN screen banner ... dramatic, eye-catching, and totally FAKE NEWS ... so overblown "survival literally depends" OMGosh ... could be a writer for CNN MSNBC or other liberal propaganda rag
Well written positive summary ... some may tell you to "follow the science" and shame you into believing that not doing so make you inferior and ignorant ... everyone has an agenda - even scientists. Someone is paying their salaries too .... always question everything or you become one-dimensional and ignorant.
Nice post HMike
Very good point! They now figure that less than 0.5% of those infected with COVID-19 eventually end up dying from it. That figure will likely go down once massive testing starts taking place. The media keeps on reporting the negatives & the tearjerker stories. But that's always been the media, so it should not be suprising. For ever 12-year old girl that unfortunately ends up dying from coronavirus there's hundreds of thousands who are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms and end up recovering. But you rarely hear about those stories. All you hear is the young girl who died. The thirty year-old husband and father of two young children who died. The celebrities who end up getting infected and people who've suffered tremendously while recovering from COVID-19. But rarely do you hear about the majority who aren't affected or barely are. When it comes to the media it's always a glass half-empty mentality instead of the glass half-full one.
But the main reason for social distancing and the shutdowns is to control the amount of population being infected & possibly getting sick. In my province only 12% of those infected end up requiring hospitalization. This is good! However since this particular virus is very easy to spread more & more people end up getting infected & the majority of them don't even realize it. However in a large population 12% requiring hospitalization would be astronomical if they'd all end up getting infected at the same time. Hospitals & the health care system wouldn't be able to cope & would be overwhelmed. The same thing with a smaller local hospital in town of let's say 10 000 habitants. Let's say out those 5000 get infected. If 12% of them require hospitalization at once this would mean 600 people would need to be hospitalized. Most of hospitals in a small town don't even have 100 beds available. So on top of the non-coronavirus patients needing a hospital bed how could they cope with patients needing at least 6 times their current capacity of beds? That's why we're social distancing and currently in lockdown.
Great point! And it's not only with healthcare workers. Police, fire department, EMS and other essential workers are also very important and they also need to be protected as much as possible.
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