Coronavirus

[The Nature Boy]

There was some idiot in a previous post arguing that the U.S. death rate is much worse than Spain and Italy. He totally ignored the fact that while those 2 Countries may have had approximately 1/2 the death totals of the U.S. their populations of roughly 60 million pale in comparison to the U.S. population of 330 million.

hey Big B,

think I may be that idiot. Yes, it was a stupid comparison. I was looking at the #’s in absolutes and not looking at over all grand scheme of things. Much like your analysis of that Santa Clara and La county report of projected cases and comparison to the flu which in the same way doesn’t take into the overall picture. I’m not sure the take away lesson is that the mortality rate would be comparable to the flu, you fuckin silly goose you. But more likely that the transmission of covid-19 is insane and that more people out there have it and don’t know it and can pass it on to even more people who can have a potentially bad out come

 

[The Nature Boy]

NY accounts for almost half HALF of all deaths and cases in the US ... so maybe the question should be directed to liberal buddies Cuomo and DeBlasio ....

Larry let me tell u something, today on CNN ( we sometimes get different stories than in USA on CNN international) they had this lengthy story of another chic who accused Biden of actual sexual assault. Like literally pinnin her to a wall or something. Biden isn’t not Teflon don like trump. If this accusations stick and he has to go, wonder if cuomo will swoop in?

 

[Sai_Baba]

NY accounts for almost half HALF of all deaths and cases in the US ... so maybe the question should be directed to liberal buddies Cuomo and DeBlasio .... ill-prepared and ill-equipped to handle things in their State ... Thank one isn't trying to handle things for our country any longer, and the other ... him and his brother can find a dark room to cuddle in together.

On the flip side, if the death rate us really 0.2%, and if 20,000 died in NY, a simple math shows that 10 milion people had already been infected in NY, with or without symptoms. The rest of the US? also 10 milion. So while the rest of the US gets to stay closed, NY state can be safely opened for business, thus jumpstarting the economy.

What do you think of that?

 

[Halloween Mike]

The Korean 200 is probably test errors or such. That would be weird. Yes we can't know it as fact atm if you do develop immunity to it but we need to test it out...

Whats fact is that society can't be as it is now for in between 1 and 2 years.

 

[minutemenX]

On the flip side, if the death rate us really 0.2%, and if 20,000 died in NY, a simple math shows that 10 milion people had already been infected in NY, with or without symptoms.

?

This reverse calculation is a very valid point. The total NY state population is 20M. There is no way that half has already been infected. This means that the death rate is well above 0.2%. Really scary. Quite possible, however, that there are different strains of the virus in circulation some deadlier than others. Thus, the average death rate and comparison of different countries that may deal with different strains is not very meaningful.

 

[cloudsurf]

Don`t forget that the death rate in NY State keeps increasing every day and no one knows for how long. At a calculation of 0.2 % they`ll be out of uninfected population in a few months.

 

[Sai_Baba]

For those of you wondering where I got 0.2%, I got two words for you: Ben Shapiro.

Listening to Ben Shapiro lately...He was citing several studies such as the one in LA and the other in Santa Clara County. He was saying that the virus has a mortality rate of 0.2 to 0.3% or about 2x to 3x that of the flu.

 

[Sai_Baba]

Don`t forget that the death rate in NY State keeps increasing every day and no one knows for how long. At a calculation of 0.2 % they`ll be out of uninfected population in a few months.

Maybe less, because the herd immunuty kicks in at 70-75%.

But let’s say we want that. It is easy to calculate how many will die in the US if the heard immunity is 75%, and mortality rate is 0.2%. We can even say it will be over in 6 months. In the meantime, food supply chain will be severely disrupted, as the workers at food processing plants get sick. What do you think will happen when a well armed population gets hungry?

 

[cloudsurf]

For those of you wondering where I got 0.2%, I got two words for you: Ben Shapiro.

You are joking...right?
The guy is a right wing nut case lawyer and not a reasonable thinking scientist or doctor.
When the dust settles in a few months....the mortality rate worldwide will stand at 2 to 3 %

 

[Paykah]

A note on the Santa Clara data. Results obtained were not from testing but from a review of data regarding prevalence of seasonal flu-like symptoms. It infers a higher than anticipated infection rate (symptomatic + asymp) which therefore means a lower mortality rate. So yes, it could be we end up with a 0.3, or even lower, overall rate. That is actually positive news.
However, Santa Clara is a wealthy county. Very wealthy. No one there is without insurance and access to top notch healthcare. These figures for estimated mortality do not extrapolate very far. They certainly do not extrapolate to a completely different social and ethnic demographic of say, rural Midwest, NYC, or even Montreal.
This has been a fun forum to read. The diversity of source information that feeds into it is eye-popping.

 

[Sai_Baba]

You are joking...right?
The guy is a right wing nut case lawyer and not a reasonable thinking scientist or doctor.
When the dust settles in a few months....the mortality rate worldwide will stand at 2 to 3 %

I am dead serious. If one is a right wing nut, and one takes information from a right wing nut source, he/she ought to take that information and make a logical conclusion, using a simple math. Right wing nuts often omit the last step. I just wanted to show what they may get once they do that.

A note on the Santa Clara data. Results obtained were not from testing but from a review of data regarding prevalence of seasonal flu-like symptoms. It infers a higher than anticipated infection rate (symptomatic + asymp) which therefore means a lower mortality rate. So yes, it could be we end up with a 0.3, or even lower, overall rate. That is actually positive news.
However, Santa Clara is a wealthy county. Very wealthy. No one there is without insurance and access to top notch healthcare. These figures for estimated mortality do not extrapolate very far. They certainly do not extrapolate to a completely different social and ethnic demographic of say, rural Midwest, NYC, or even Montreal.
This has been a fun forum to read. The diversity of source information that feeds into it is eye-popping.

In other words, a population that lives in single homes may get affected differently than the population that lives in multi-dwelling homes. It’s not that people do not understand that, it is that they don’t care IF they happen to live in a single family home.

 

[OnJustALark]

...
When the dust settles in a few months....the mortality rate worldwide will stand at 2 to 3 %

So you are suggesting that there will be 228,450,000 deaths from china virus realized globally in the next month or two? Seriously?

 

[cloudsurf]

Your calculation is dead wrong...... absurdly so. Firstly since when is 1 or 2 months equal to a few months. If that was the case then I would have written a couple of months.
We were never talking about a percent of worldwide population. If you`ve been away then you can be forgiven for not realizing that I`m talking about a percentage of deaths among reported cases of covid19. So the figure you post of 228,450,000 is off by more than a couple of hundred million.

 

[minutemenX]

This is all BS as the infection rate and the number of positive tested cases are fluid numbers and depend on many variables. At the end the only total number of the COVID death per say 1M of population would make sense. And not reported (or misreported) but real. You don’t need to know the number of infected people for this. Just subtract the number of deaths from this year with COVID from the total number of deaths from the previous 2019. You can also go month by month, but it is less accurate. The death rate (DR) in US changes (increases) by about 1% from year to year without any pandemic. We will see what increase in the DR this COVID pandemic will bring. Make your bets gentlemen.

 

[cloudsurf]

The number of deaths per population is just as misleading a measurement since different countries are at different stages of infection as well as cycles. In a few months we should have a better idea. Even if 75% of a country is tested its still going to be a fluid scenario.

 

[minutemenX]

I am not talking about the current death rate, but the death rate calculated and compared when pandemic is over. Hopefully in 2-3 years the death rate will go to “normal” numbers. My bet is that COVID pandemic will increase the US yearly death rate by 5-10% in 2020.

 

[OnJustALark]

Your calculation is dead wrong...... absurdly so. ... .

Your words ... in a few months .... that took into account the 'few months' now we've been at this china virus thing ...

Your words ... mortality rate world wide stand at 2-3$ ... that number I posted IS 3% of world wide population ...

Of Course the number of case will continue to grow ... as more testing is done - I bet many MA-NY on this Board have had this virus and didn't know it cuz you wee NOT tested - just a chest cold or little congestion - felt better with your regular remedy - Nyquil, Tyleno Cold/ Flu.

And yes, people will continue to die ... as they do with the flu ...

And yes, flu comes back in the late fall and will impact people because the shot doesn't;t cover every strain ... surprise surprise ... will be same with latest china virus ...

Will be especially BAD in the fall ... i assure you ... know how I know? I bet you intellects can figure it out ... come on, who knows? Raise you hand or just shout out the answer

 

[CaptRenault]

A Stanford University doctor writes in the NY Post:

Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

By Scott Atlas April 26, 2020 |

nypost.com

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been enormous, and New York has suffered more than anywhere else in the world. Compared as a separate country, the New York area would rank, by far, as No. 1 for deaths per capita.

The New York-New Jersey-Connecticut tri-state area accounts for approximately 60 percent of all US deaths. Theories abound, but the New York area itself is different: New York is the top port of entry for the hundreds of thousands of tourists coming to the US every month from China; Gotham has a uniquely high density of living that swells daily by millions from workers and tourists; and Manhattan sees some 1.6 million commuters daily, mostly on crowded public transit, including 320,000 from Jersey alone.

Yet the pandemic toll is falling, dramatically so in New York, *including both hospitalizations and deaths per day. Few doubt that the unprecedented isolation policies had a significant *impact on “flattening the curves.”

Now, we face another, even greater problem: how to sensibly re-enter normal life. This must be based on what we now know, not on worst-case projections, using facts and fundamental medical knowledge, not fear or single-vision policies.

First, we know the risk of *dying from COVID-19 is far lower than initially thought, and not significant for the overwhelming majority of those infected.

Multiple recent studies from Iceland, Germany, USC, Stanford and New York City all suggest that the fatality rate if infected is likely far lower than early estimates, perhaps under 0.1 to 0.4 percent, i.e., 10 to 40 times lower than estimates that motivated extreme isolation.

In the Big Apple, with almost one-third of all US deaths, the rate of death for all people ages 18 to 45 is 0.01 percent, or 13 per 100,000 in the population, one-eightieth of the rate for people aged 75 and over. For people under 18, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. Of Empire State fatalities, almost two-thirds were over 70 years of age. And regardless of age, if you don’t already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small. Of 7,959 NYC COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions, 99.2 percent had an underlying illness.

Second, protecting older, at-risk people helps prevent hospital overcrowding. Of New York City’s 38,000 hospitalizations, less than 1 percent have been patients under 18 years of age. Studying 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded: “Age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.”

Recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness than early World Health Organization reports that noted 80 percent of all cases were mild. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people don’t get hospitalized.

Third, due to fear and the single-minded focus on COVID-19 regardless of cost, other people are dying. Critical medical care isn’t being provided. Millions of Americans have missed critical health care for fear of encountering the disease, and people are dying to make room for “potential” coronavirus patients.

When states and hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery, that didn’t mean unimportant care. Treatments for the most serious illnesses, including emergency care, were missed. Some estimate about half of cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. Approximately 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Perhaps half or more of acute stroke and heart-attack *patients missed their only chances for early treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability. Transplants from living donors are down 85 percent from the same period last year.

And that doesn’t include the skipped cancer screenings, avoided childhood vaccinations, missed biopsies of now undiscovered cancers numbering thousands per week — and countless other serious disorders left undiagnosed.

Lastly, total isolation prevents broad population immunity and prolongs the problem.

We know from decades of medical science that infection causes individuals to generate an immune response (antibodies), and the population later develops immunity. Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases: to assist with “herd immunity.”

In the COVID-19 epicenter, Gotham, higher immunity is likely, although undoubtedly muted by the extreme isolation. More than 20 percent of those tested had antibodies. While we don’t know with certainty that antibodies from COVID-19 stop infection, it would be expected, based on decades of virology science, including other coronavirus respiratory bugs, where immunity post-infection is thought to last for a year or more. That’s why scientists are hopeful about using COVID-19 antibodies to treat the sickest patients.

For population immunity, it is great news that half of infected people are asymptomatic and that medical care isn’t even necessary for the vast majority of people. That fact has been incorrectly portrayed as an urgent problem requiring mass isolation.

On the contrary, infected people are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread *immunity. By transmitting the *virus to others in lower-risk groups who then generate antibodies, pathways toward the most vulnerable people are blocked, ultimately eradicating the threat.

The curves have been flattened. Now, we must use established medical science and the evidence we have *gathered, and for New York City in particular, limit the enormous harms accumulating from broad isolation and economic lockdown. While New York is unique, strategy should now focus on rigorously protecting the most vulnerable and strictly regulate access to senior-care centers.

Officials must issue rational distancing guidelines to the elderly and their families, including self-isolating the mildly sick. Masks could be required for public transit. We know children and young adults in good health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19, so logic means opening most schools. With sensible precautions and sanitization standards, most workplaces and businesses should reopen. This would save lives, prevent overcrowding of hospitals, restore vital health care for everyone and allow the socializing essential to generate immunity among those with little risk of serious consequences.

Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford Medical Center.

 

[The Nature Boy]

Cliff notes captain?

anywhoo, though brad Pitt was just a toot as Tony Fauci on SNL

 

[2fast2slow]

i fully agree with that NY Post article (dont generally like that rag though )

it is time to confront this virus head on. the sooner the heathly and younger 80% of the population can catch it and get over it, the sooner the older and weaker can be freed. We have to do it for them. I would not want to be an old person or a weakend person right now. Lets help them. (of course, we have to do it while not overwhelming the heath care facilities, but if only the young and healthy catch it, we wont)