Coronavirus

[The Nature Boy]

Its a tiny more severe than a severe pneumonia and more contagious.

hi Mike,

im sorry brother but this is an extremely silly comment. A severe pneumonia is a severe pneumonia. It can land someone in the hospital and kill someone

with respect to these South Korean “reinfection” claims, what r possibilities?

1. The tests were duds, and results were bullshit
2. The tests pick up remnant viral components which are non transmissible and will not make you sick
3. Its a true reinfection, if this is the case, it would be a funky coronavirus for reinfection. Even for the cold you have some level of immunity for a few months.

also with all the questions about whether these antibodies mean anything, again, what r the possibilities?

1. U have antibodies and they are neutralizing and they will hold you over till vaccine?
2. They r worthless. No immunity. If you are someone who has died, well, it is what it is, end of story. If you lived whether you were in hospital or didn’t know you had it, for you to have even more severe disease the second time you got it would again be a bit funky

chances are the antibodies will provide some level of immunity, how long or how much is the question. Getting more sick the second time around......I don’t know, possible, but unlikely

 

[cloudsurf]

They now figure that less than 0.5% of those infected with COVID-19 eventually end up dying from it.

Doc who is THEY ? Yes in well governed and mostly island states like Singapore and New Zealand , the death rate is a fraction of a percent....but the population has to follow very strict isolation rules. Viet Nam may be the only large country with no deaths reported.

On the other hand in Sweden where they are doing very little in they way of restrictions, the death rate is over 10%. Italy , Spain and G.B. the rate is also hovering around 10%. Messy USA is 5% and rising. Germany supposedly doing a great job is 3.5% So where do THEY get the 0.5% ?

 

[hungry101]

Some of the latest stats I heard bandied about are interesting. If you are put on a ventilator your chance of survival is ~10-12%. Heck that hardly makes them worth it...unless you or someone you love is that 1 in 10 that makes it. There has got to be a better way.

Listening to Ben Shapiro lately...He was citing several studies such as the one in LA and the other in Santa Clara County. He was saying that the virus has a mortality rate of 0.2 to 0.3% or about 2x to 3x that of the flu. The complicating factor is that it is also about 3x contagious than the flu so that it is about 6x to 9x worse than the flu. And when they consider the increased death rate from staying at home that makes this even worse.

 

[jalimon]

And when they consider the increased death rate from staying at home that makes this even worse.

I agree with that but how in hell can it be calculated?

hi Mike,
im sorry brother but this is an extremely silly comment. A severe pneumonia is a severe pneumonia. It can land someone in the hospital and kill someone

A pneumonia is an infection and not a virus. Often caught because of a virus, bacteria or germs.

chances are the antibodies will provide some level of immunity, how long or how much is the question. Getting more sick the second time around......I don’t know, possible, but unlikely

Correct. The scientist based the possible immunity because of other same type of virus. But they want proof of it and that is what we do not have at this moment. So any decision based on natural herd immunity is very risky at this time.

 

[The Nature Boy]

And when they consider the increased death rate from staying at home that makes this even worse.

true, a lot of people here in U.K. who would normally go to casualty/ER for chest pain, stroke like symptoms, suspected broken bones are not going to facilities for fear of getting exposed to covid, some are sadly expiring @ home

 

[sene5hos]

Do you know why Trump gave 2 hour press conferences every day?

The answer is very simple: he had an audience of at least 8,000,000 people each time, while Biden had no exposure.

But with the monumental blunder he had made on the injection of disinfectant to kill the virus, he became very irritated by questions from journalists, and yesterday his speech lasted barely 30 minutes, and his conference today has been canceled, and he thinks (nuance people around him think, because he doesn't have the capacity to think) of perhaps diminishing by much or outright doing it less often.

In short, he doesn't give a damn about people, he only thinks about being re-elected in November.

 

[bignasty]

Common sense from Wall Street Journal columnist, Holman Jenkins.

And, for God’s sake, the media should stop confusing “infection fatality rate” with “case fatality rate,” grotesquely misleading the public on the true death rate. It’s hard to see why anybody would even report case fatality rate, a number without meaning since most of those tested either had celebrity access to testing or symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization (i.e., the equivalent of counting drunks and people who drive blue Austin-Healeys to estimate the risk of dying in a car accident).

There was some idiot in a previous post arguing that the U.S. death rate is much worse than Spain and Italy. He totally ignored the fact that while those 2 Countries may have had approximately 1/2 the death totals of the U.S. their populations of roughly 60 million pale in comparison to the U.S. population of 330 million. And, at this point there is little to be gained by scaring people with inflated death rates, since as the WSJ article pointed out, we have no idea how many people have been infected by this virus. The studies mentioned by Hungry in California do suggest that the numbers are over inflated and that the actual rates may be comparable to the annual influenza virus.

Excellent quote Captain

 

[cloudsurf]

I agree that its not logical to compare the US death rate with that of Italy and Spain because of the population difference. As a percent the US is 5% compared to 10% for the 4 hardest hit European countries.
But one statistic is shocking and hard to ignore . The US accounts for one quarter of the world`s total covid19 deaths. Is that because they are more honest in reporting numbers, or the rest of the world will only catch up in a few weeks or months, or that the US response was too slow and too late. Maybe all of those reasons

 

[OnJustALark]

... or that the US response was too slow and too late. Maybe all of those reasons

NY accounts for almost half HALF of all deaths and cases in the US ... so maybe the question should be directed to liberal buddies Cuomo and DeBlasio .... ill-prepared and ill-equipped to handle things in their State ... Thank one isn't trying to handle things for our country any longer, and the other ... him and his brother can find a dark room to cuddle in together.

 

[The Nature Boy]

There was some idiot in a previous post arguing that the U.S. death rate is much worse than Spain and Italy. He totally ignored the fact that while those 2 Countries may have had approximately 1/2 the death totals of the U.S. their populations of roughly 60 million pale in comparison to the U.S. population of 330 million.

hey Big B,

think I may be that idiot. Yes, it was a stupid comparison. I was looking at the #’s in absolutes and not looking at over all grand scheme of things. Much like your analysis of that Santa Clara and La county report of projected cases and comparison to the flu which in the same way doesn’t take into the overall picture. I’m not sure the take away lesson is that the mortality rate would be comparable to the flu, you fuckin silly goose you. But more likely that the transmission of covid-19 is insane and that more people out there have it and don’t know it and can pass it on to even more people who can have a potentially bad out come

 

[The Nature Boy]

NY accounts for almost half HALF of all deaths and cases in the US ... so maybe the question should be directed to liberal buddies Cuomo and DeBlasio ....

Larry let me tell u something, today on CNN ( we sometimes get different stories than in USA on CNN international) they had this lengthy story of another chic who accused Biden of actual sexual assault. Like literally pinnin her to a wall or something. Biden isn’t not Teflon don like trump. If this accusations stick and he has to go, wonder if cuomo will swoop in?

 

[Sai_Baba]

NY accounts for almost half HALF of all deaths and cases in the US ... so maybe the question should be directed to liberal buddies Cuomo and DeBlasio .... ill-prepared and ill-equipped to handle things in their State ... Thank one isn't trying to handle things for our country any longer, and the other ... him and his brother can find a dark room to cuddle in together.

On the flip side, if the death rate us really 0.2%, and if 20,000 died in NY, a simple math shows that 10 milion people had already been infected in NY, with or without symptoms. The rest of the US? also 10 milion. So while the rest of the US gets to stay closed, NY state can be safely opened for business, thus jumpstarting the economy.

What do you think of that?

 

[Halloween Mike]

The Korean 200 is probably test errors or such. That would be weird. Yes we can't know it as fact atm if you do develop immunity to it but we need to test it out...

Whats fact is that society can't be as it is now for in between 1 and 2 years.

 

[minutemenX]

On the flip side, if the death rate us really 0.2%, and if 20,000 died in NY, a simple math shows that 10 milion people had already been infected in NY, with or without symptoms.

?

This reverse calculation is a very valid point. The total NY state population is 20M. There is no way that half has already been infected. This means that the death rate is well above 0.2%. Really scary. Quite possible, however, that there are different strains of the virus in circulation some deadlier than others. Thus, the average death rate and comparison of different countries that may deal with different strains is not very meaningful.

 

[cloudsurf]

Don`t forget that the death rate in NY State keeps increasing every day and no one knows for how long. At a calculation of 0.2 % they`ll be out of uninfected population in a few months.

 

[Sai_Baba]

For those of you wondering where I got 0.2%, I got two words for you: Ben Shapiro.

Listening to Ben Shapiro lately...He was citing several studies such as the one in LA and the other in Santa Clara County. He was saying that the virus has a mortality rate of 0.2 to 0.3% or about 2x to 3x that of the flu.

 

[Sai_Baba]

Don`t forget that the death rate in NY State keeps increasing every day and no one knows for how long. At a calculation of 0.2 % they`ll be out of uninfected population in a few months.

Maybe less, because the herd immunuty kicks in at 70-75%.

But let’s say we want that. It is easy to calculate how many will die in the US if the heard immunity is 75%, and mortality rate is 0.2%. We can even say it will be over in 6 months. In the meantime, food supply chain will be severely disrupted, as the workers at food processing plants get sick. What do you think will happen when a well armed population gets hungry?

 

[cloudsurf]

For those of you wondering where I got 0.2%, I got two words for you: Ben Shapiro.

You are joking...right?
The guy is a right wing nut case lawyer and not a reasonable thinking scientist or doctor.
When the dust settles in a few months....the mortality rate worldwide will stand at 2 to 3 %

 

[Paykah]

A note on the Santa Clara data. Results obtained were not from testing but from a review of data regarding prevalence of seasonal flu-like symptoms. It infers a higher than anticipated infection rate (symptomatic + asymp) which therefore means a lower mortality rate. So yes, it could be we end up with a 0.3, or even lower, overall rate. That is actually positive news.
However, Santa Clara is a wealthy county. Very wealthy. No one there is without insurance and access to top notch healthcare. These figures for estimated mortality do not extrapolate very far. They certainly do not extrapolate to a completely different social and ethnic demographic of say, rural Midwest, NYC, or even Montreal.
This has been a fun forum to read. The diversity of source information that feeds into it is eye-popping.

 

[Sai_Baba]

You are joking...right?
The guy is a right wing nut case lawyer and not a reasonable thinking scientist or doctor.
When the dust settles in a few months....the mortality rate worldwide will stand at 2 to 3 %

I am dead serious. If one is a right wing nut, and one takes information from a right wing nut source, he/she ought to take that information and make a logical conclusion, using a simple math. Right wing nuts often omit the last step. I just wanted to show what they may get once they do that.

A note on the Santa Clara data. Results obtained were not from testing but from a review of data regarding prevalence of seasonal flu-like symptoms. It infers a higher than anticipated infection rate (symptomatic + asymp) which therefore means a lower mortality rate. So yes, it could be we end up with a 0.3, or even lower, overall rate. That is actually positive news.
However, Santa Clara is a wealthy county. Very wealthy. No one there is without insurance and access to top notch healthcare. These figures for estimated mortality do not extrapolate very far. They certainly do not extrapolate to a completely different social and ethnic demographic of say, rural Midwest, NYC, or even Montreal.
This has been a fun forum to read. The diversity of source information that feeds into it is eye-popping.

In other words, a population that lives in single homes may get affected differently than the population that lives in multi-dwelling homes. It’s not that people do not understand that, it is that they don’t care IF they happen to live in a single family home.