Brett Gardner is a fine defensive replacement, iggy. You know, the Sox last year had a raft of injuries, a couple of guys having off years, so they punted the season. What happens to them next year is really unpredictable and, of course, will depend in part on the final pieces that Cherington puts in place. They still have a boatload of money to spend and need a pitcher and a left handed bat.
The Yankees are mostly quite predictable because there are few roster changes and pretty well defined career paths. They have holes and we have a pretty good idea of how they're going to fill them. Let's take a look.
Catcher - Martin had a slight down year (.030 off his career) though he still hit 21 bombs and was strong in the clutch. This year, they're opting to go with a minor leaguer. Major downgrade.
First Base - Mark Teixeira has seen has numbers decline for four consecutive seasons to the point where he's a slightly below average hitter. His biggest fall offs were in 2009 and 2010. I have a feeling that he's going to be able to tread water. He can't go much lower. No change
Second Base - Robinson Cano is a wonderful player. However, he did outperform his career norm by .075 in his career year. His career path had been up to last year and he should out perform his career .854, but fall well short of last years .929. I'd say about .875 still a fine year by a fine player but a significant downgrade.
Shortstop - After 2 years in the low .700s, Jeter stepped it up to .791 last year. Given his career path, his age, and a significant injury, Jeter looks to drop back into the .700-.725 range. How much he'll play after the injury and after leading the league in PAs last year will also affect his value. Major Downgrade.
Third Base - Going from one injury prone old man to another, I see little change. Youkilis stepped it up a little bit after leaving Boston, so the change of scenery certainly helped. But he's still old, slow and injury prone and his career path is pretty clear. He's missed 160 games the last three years, so you should expect a season from Youk, pretty similar that of A-Rod last year. No change.
Left field - Bret Gardner has pretty well established himself as a good glove, no hit left fielder. He had his best year .762 at 26 and his career is .723, pretty much what can be expected of him in 2013. Ibanez had a .761 last year, but he's gone. Slight downgrade.
Center field - Granderson dipped slightly from his career average and significantly from his career year in 2011. That's only to be expected at 31. I'd expect a similar season in 2013. No change
Right field - Nick Swisher put up an .837 season last year, Ichiro a .696, pretty much in line with his career path as his legs and bat slow. He's 39, not a good age for a guy who relies on his wheels. Huge downgrade.
There will be a significant upgrade in defense in the corner outfield positions, but that will be given back by putting hobbled old men on the left side of the infield. Look for Bret Gardner to be picking up a lot of slow ground balls.
The pitching won't be as good, but it won't be bad.
CC Sabathia - His innings were down and his ERA was up, pretty much what you'd expect from a 31 year old pitcher with a lot of mileage on the arm. Look for more of the same in 2013. Minor downgrade.
Hiroki Kuroda - At 37, he threw the most innings of his career and had a slightly better than average season. You don't get better as you get older. He'll be 38. Minor downgrade.
Andy Pettitte - Pettitte pitched better at 38 and 40 than he did from 34-37, so he's a wild card. If he can stay healthy, he should give them more innings, though not as good ones as last year. His ERA could be any where from 3.25-4.25. Minor upgrade.
Phil Hughes - He's a wild card. He had his best season as a starter last year and threw more innings than ever before. He could step it up or he could be the same. He's still fairly young, the only young guy on the team and, hence, the least projectable. Minor upgrade.
Fifth starter - who knows. All we know is that he'll be cheap.
Mariano Rivera - Unpredictable. He's older than God and coming off a severe injury. The only thing we can predict about him is that he won't be as good in 2013 as Soriano was in 2012. Downgrade
The pitching will be as good as it was last year, but not nearly good enough to make up the 115 runs that the offense is going to lose. Those 115 runs will cost the Yankees 14-15 games in their march to .500.
