Winter Blues: 2012 Official Offseason Baseball Thread
- Thread starter lgna69xxx
- Start date
That was funny
We loved Rusty..then traded him to Detroit for fat Mickey Lolich
He came back to set a record for batting in the most RBI's in a season as a pinch hitter in his later years
His # was the first to be retired by Montreal
You picked a bad person to make fun of my friend...LOL
Best Regards
Smuler
My dear Smuler. I would never ever make fun of the revered Le Grand Orange. Now, the Bronx Home for the Aged and Infirm, that's a different story.
I just read on the Lohud Yankees blog, by the way, that the Yankees are now considering bringing in Elston Howard to fill one of their many gaping holes.
I just read on the Lohud Yankees blog, by the way, that the Yankees are now considering bringing in Elston Howard to fill one of their many gaping holes.
I completely agree with Kevin Glew in his article about the Dickey deal-
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/o...e-proves-blue-jays-going-all-in-for-2013.html
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/o...e-proves-blue-jays-going-all-in-for-2013.html
New poll conducted by the respected baseball writer Jon Paul Morosi has the Blue Jays winning the East in 2013, guess who is predicted to finish last?, surprise, surprise.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...-dickey-voted-favorites-to-win-al-east-121712
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...-dickey-voted-favorites-to-win-al-east-121712
I was watching some of the very well respected guys from MLB Network yesterday and they did some picks for the AL East next year and the Yanks were first in one, second in one and 3rd in one, meanwhile the red sox were 3rd in one, 4th in one and last in the other, the only guy on that network who thinks the red sox can even make the playoffs is one Kevin "homer" Millar, go figure 
So...how many of the "experts" correctly picked all 4 teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS last year? Yup, that's what I thought.
I personally like the idea of putting together a bunch of guys who can just "play ball", no superstars with $25M contracts, just baseball players...kinda like...the SF Giants:nod:. Funny what happens then...:thumb:.
Looks to me like what a certain Beantown team may be trying to do...
Merry Christmas everyone and best wishes for the New Year!
. I personally like the idea of putting together a bunch of guys who can just "play ball", no superstars with $25M contracts, just baseball players...kinda like...the SF Giants:nod:. Funny what happens then...:thumb:.
Looks to me like what a certain Beantown team may be trying to do...
Merry Christmas everyone and best wishes for the New Year!
Jman, I'm not thrilled with the Sox at this point. They're a mediocre club, just like the Yankees, although they're much less likely to break down. The difference between them is that the Yankees will be at about $210 million, mediocre, and no money to spend. The Sox are at about $150 million and can still go another $30. I've been saying all along that they'd need to spend about $170 million to contend and, in fact, they're just a front line starter short now.
Since they were under the luxury tax threshold last year, they have no spending constraints for 2013. In fact, there was only one team in baseball over the luxury tax threshold last year and they tanked in the playoffs and have done nothing this winter but get a bunch older.
Since they were under the luxury tax threshold last year, they have no spending constraints for 2013. In fact, there was only one team in baseball over the luxury tax threshold last year and they tanked in the playoffs and have done nothing this winter but get a bunch older.
Don't you mean "ex-superstars"?
Payroll and luxury tax numbers are out for the last 10 years. Get this: for their one championship and nine years of utter failure, the Yankees spent: $2,110,334,035. They also contributed $224,558,161 in luxury tax payments. They're currently contributing at a 42.5% rate.
The luxury tax payments are why they've decided not to compete for the pennant for the next few years. Clearly the Steinbrothers are more concerned with the bottom line than was their father.
The luxury tax payments are why they've decided not to compete for the pennant for the next few years. Clearly the Steinbrothers are more concerned with the bottom line than was their father.
Yes, i would agree.
Oh, and rumps, if you seriously think that the red sox are only a front line starter short of contending, well.... i think someone started celebrating the new year a lil too soon my friend. Go add Swisher and Loshe and you might climb out of the basement and beat out the Orioles for 4th place. Mediocre? Nahhhhh, just not very good in a very good division where 4 other teams are better to much much better.
Oh, and rumps, if you seriously think that the red sox are only a front line starter short of contending, well.... i think someone started celebrating the new year a lil too soon my friend. Go add Swisher and Loshe and you might climb out of the basement and beat out the Orioles for 4th place. Mediocre? Nahhhhh, just not very good in a very good division where 4 other teams are better to much much better.
I wonder if it's your sense of entitlement, common among Yankee fans, or the simple fact that you're delusional.
The Sox have signed a number of good, not great players, can expect bounceback seasons from Buchholz and Lester. Have a developing starter in Dubront, third in the AL in K/9 last year and a lefty. (If you knew anything, which I suspect you don't, about baseball, you'd know that quality lefties develop late.) Players who missed major time with injury last year are Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ortiz and Ellsbury and all four will make greater contributions next year. The Sox appear to be an 83-86 win team right now and have room to make additions.
The Yankees have massive problems. Not only are they an old team getting older, but they have lost half of their offense from last year and have done nothing to replace it, nothing at all. No catcher, no DH. A fading, below average first baseman. Light hitting corner outfielders. A broken down old shortstop. The pitching, if it hold us (a huge if) should be good, but it better be for a team that is likely to be last in the AL in runs scored, save perhaps Seattle.
The Sox have signed a number of good, not great players, can expect bounceback seasons from Buchholz and Lester. Have a developing starter in Dubront, third in the AL in K/9 last year and a lefty. (If you knew anything, which I suspect you don't, about baseball, you'd know that quality lefties develop late.) Players who missed major time with injury last year are Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ortiz and Ellsbury and all four will make greater contributions next year. The Sox appear to be an 83-86 win team right now and have room to make additions.
The Yankees have massive problems. Not only are they an old team getting older, but they have lost half of their offense from last year and have done nothing to replace it, nothing at all. No catcher, no DH. A fading, below average first baseman. Light hitting corner outfielders. A broken down old shortstop. The pitching, if it hold us (a huge if) should be good, but it better be for a team that is likely to be last in the AL in runs scored, save perhaps Seattle.
Even if they do they are still head and shoulders better than the Dead Sox, according to Moresi's poll 20 professional MLB baseball scouts who are paid big bucks to analyse teams and players for a living have the Yankees finishing 3rd and the Red Sox finishing in dead last place in 2013, this is not me saying this but 20 scouting MLB experts.
And scouts are often as wrong as you, Joe. The "scouts" said the 1997 Rays would lose 100 games, just like always. The sabermetricians said the Rays would win 90. They were both wrong. The Rays won 97.
Remember Ron Guidry? (Of course you don't. He pitched for the Yankees 25 years ago.) He sucked until he was 26.
Remember Randy Johnson? He sucked until he was 26.
How about CC Sabathia? He sucked until he was 25.
Cliff Lee? He sucked until he was 25.
You might have heard of Sandy Koufax? He sucked until he was 25.
What do these guys have in common? They're all lefthanders with big strikeout numbers. I could cite a whole host of similar lefties who blossomed at 25.
You know who was third in the AL in K/9 (look it up, I'm not going to explain it to you) last year? A 24 year old lefty, who just happens to be pitching for the Red Sox.
Look at the Yankees record in 1964. Now look at their record in 1965. What happened? I'll give you a hint. They got old. They look exactly like the old age home in the Bronx today.
An interesting piece by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory. I agree with most everything he says, though I think the Sox have already caught and passed the Yankees. He seems to think they still have a little work to do. Fortunately, they still have some $20 M worth of flexibility in their budget.
How to catch the Blue Jays
By Dan Szymborski
Baseball Think Factory
The busy offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays continued over the weekend, with the team acquiring NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets in a seven-player trade. Toronto's complete overhaul of the rotation looks to be done, but is it enough to fend off the rest of the division?
There's no question that the Jays gave up a lot of value to bring Dickey across the border. As Keith Law outlined Monday, Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are legitimately excellent prospects and the odds are strong that one or both will succeed with the Mets.
Projecting Dickey
Dickey isn't a short-term fix because typical aging patterns don't apply to knuckleballers. We looked at the issue more deeply in a recent issue of ESPN The Magazine and found that when it came to innings remaining, a 38-year-old knuckler could be considered to be in about the same position as a "conventional" 33- or 34-year-old pitcher.
Year IP ERA K WAR
2013 194.2 3.88 149 4.0
2014 194.2 4.11 142 3.5
2015 191.1 4.33 136 2.8
2016 180.0 4.35 128 2.7
That being said, pitchers of Dickey's value don't come cheaply and the acquisition makes perfect sense when examined against the backdrop of the other moves the Blue Jays made this season. Unlike a team like the Kansas City Royals, Toronto has a base of talent strong enough that a win-now trade is warranted. The ZiPS projection system estimated that the Jays' big trade with the Miami Marlins put the estimated talent level of the Toronto roster at around 90 wins, and this trade pushes that figure even higher.
Dickey's unlikely to be nearly 6 wins above replacement again in the American League in 2012 -- pitchers aren't immune to regression and he's moving to a league and park that will likely result in more homers allowed -- but he doesn't need to be a Cy Young winner in 2013 to push Toronto's playoff chances forward. The ZiPS projection system projects Dickey at a 3.88 ERA in 194⅔ innings in Toronto, good enough to be a 4-WAR season. Coupled with the Melky Cabrera signing, ZiPS now estimates the talent of Toronto's roster at 93 wins, making the Blue Jays the early favorites going into the season.
Now the question that remains is just how the rest of the division responds to this trade. Moves aren't made in a vacuum, after all, so the strength of the competition is something that has to be taken into consideration in any kind of offseason planning. So, what, if anything, could the rest of the division do to answer this trade?
The Tampa Bay Rays already made their big move of the winter, acquiring Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields, and are unlikely to answer with another big move of their own. Their payroll situation is tight, and unlike the New York Yankees, their payroll limits are out of necessity rather than preference. Shields is likely more valuable in 2013 than Wil Myers, but Myers fills a more pressing need for the team long term. ZiPS has the Rays at 88 wins right now (see table).
The Yankees are up against a self-imposed salary cap, so unless they choose to ignore it, the upgrades available to the team are limited. Even assuming the Ichiro contract is a done deal and Kevin Youkilis is a solid DH when A-Rod eventually returns around midseason, the team could still use the outfield help. Even most of the second-tier outfielders like Shane Victorino and Ryan Ludwick are gone and the corner outfield options essentially consist of eating crow and bringing back Nick Swisher or a large drop-off to Delmon Young or Scott Hairston. New York still projects in the mid-to-high 80s in wins as there's still talent on the roster, but there's serious downside here.
Projected standings
As of Dec. 18, the Jays are the clear favorite in the AL East.
Team W L PCT GB
Toronto 93 69 .574 --
Tampa Bay 88 74 .543 5
New York 87 75 .537 6
Boston 85 77 .525 8
Baltimore 77 85 .475 16
The Boston Red Sox were projected at 76 wins last month with their on-hand talent, but assuming the Mike Napoli signing is finalized, him plus the additions of Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes have boosted their mean win projection by about 10 wins. The team could still theoretically decide to overpay Swisher, but the lineup is probably set at this point. Edwin Jackson's probably the best signing left the team could make.
The biggest loser in the AL East moves has been the Baltimore Orioles, now in likely the most precarious position of any AL East team. The O's were projected to win 80 games as of a month ago, but with the aggressive improvements of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the 2013 returns of Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera and the Rays nicely solving their Shields conundrum, the O's position has eroded. Last season was a fun ride, but rather than take 2012 as a sign that the time was right to really go for some quality additions, the big moves have been re-signing Nate McLouth and acquiring Danny Valencia. After missing out on most free agents and likely unwilling to move Adam Jones to left to give them a reason to sign Michael Bourn, the O's practically need to bring in one of Jackson, Swisher or Kyle Lohse to save the offseason from being a categorical failure.
Toronto's fan base ought to be nothing but smiles on Tuesday. The Jays, on paper, are likely the best team in the AL East right now. Pennants are won on the field, of course, but Toronto's offseason revamping has been astonishing. We don't know yet if the wins will materialize, but despite what sports movies always tell us, being the favorite is a better position than being the underdog.
How to catch the Blue Jays
By Dan Szymborski
Baseball Think Factory
The busy offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays continued over the weekend, with the team acquiring NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets in a seven-player trade. Toronto's complete overhaul of the rotation looks to be done, but is it enough to fend off the rest of the division?
There's no question that the Jays gave up a lot of value to bring Dickey across the border. As Keith Law outlined Monday, Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are legitimately excellent prospects and the odds are strong that one or both will succeed with the Mets.
Projecting Dickey
Dickey isn't a short-term fix because typical aging patterns don't apply to knuckleballers. We looked at the issue more deeply in a recent issue of ESPN The Magazine and found that when it came to innings remaining, a 38-year-old knuckler could be considered to be in about the same position as a "conventional" 33- or 34-year-old pitcher.
Year IP ERA K WAR
2013 194.2 3.88 149 4.0
2014 194.2 4.11 142 3.5
2015 191.1 4.33 136 2.8
2016 180.0 4.35 128 2.7
That being said, pitchers of Dickey's value don't come cheaply and the acquisition makes perfect sense when examined against the backdrop of the other moves the Blue Jays made this season. Unlike a team like the Kansas City Royals, Toronto has a base of talent strong enough that a win-now trade is warranted. The ZiPS projection system estimated that the Jays' big trade with the Miami Marlins put the estimated talent level of the Toronto roster at around 90 wins, and this trade pushes that figure even higher.
Dickey's unlikely to be nearly 6 wins above replacement again in the American League in 2012 -- pitchers aren't immune to regression and he's moving to a league and park that will likely result in more homers allowed -- but he doesn't need to be a Cy Young winner in 2013 to push Toronto's playoff chances forward. The ZiPS projection system projects Dickey at a 3.88 ERA in 194⅔ innings in Toronto, good enough to be a 4-WAR season. Coupled with the Melky Cabrera signing, ZiPS now estimates the talent of Toronto's roster at 93 wins, making the Blue Jays the early favorites going into the season.
Now the question that remains is just how the rest of the division responds to this trade. Moves aren't made in a vacuum, after all, so the strength of the competition is something that has to be taken into consideration in any kind of offseason planning. So, what, if anything, could the rest of the division do to answer this trade?
The Tampa Bay Rays already made their big move of the winter, acquiring Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields, and are unlikely to answer with another big move of their own. Their payroll situation is tight, and unlike the New York Yankees, their payroll limits are out of necessity rather than preference. Shields is likely more valuable in 2013 than Wil Myers, but Myers fills a more pressing need for the team long term. ZiPS has the Rays at 88 wins right now (see table).
The Yankees are up against a self-imposed salary cap, so unless they choose to ignore it, the upgrades available to the team are limited. Even assuming the Ichiro contract is a done deal and Kevin Youkilis is a solid DH when A-Rod eventually returns around midseason, the team could still use the outfield help. Even most of the second-tier outfielders like Shane Victorino and Ryan Ludwick are gone and the corner outfield options essentially consist of eating crow and bringing back Nick Swisher or a large drop-off to Delmon Young or Scott Hairston. New York still projects in the mid-to-high 80s in wins as there's still talent on the roster, but there's serious downside here.
Projected standings
As of Dec. 18, the Jays are the clear favorite in the AL East.
Team W L PCT GB
Toronto 93 69 .574 --
Tampa Bay 88 74 .543 5
New York 87 75 .537 6
Boston 85 77 .525 8
Baltimore 77 85 .475 16
The Boston Red Sox were projected at 76 wins last month with their on-hand talent, but assuming the Mike Napoli signing is finalized, him plus the additions of Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes have boosted their mean win projection by about 10 wins. The team could still theoretically decide to overpay Swisher, but the lineup is probably set at this point. Edwin Jackson's probably the best signing left the team could make.
The biggest loser in the AL East moves has been the Baltimore Orioles, now in likely the most precarious position of any AL East team. The O's were projected to win 80 games as of a month ago, but with the aggressive improvements of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the 2013 returns of Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera and the Rays nicely solving their Shields conundrum, the O's position has eroded. Last season was a fun ride, but rather than take 2012 as a sign that the time was right to really go for some quality additions, the big moves have been re-signing Nate McLouth and acquiring Danny Valencia. After missing out on most free agents and likely unwilling to move Adam Jones to left to give them a reason to sign Michael Bourn, the O's practically need to bring in one of Jackson, Swisher or Kyle Lohse to save the offseason from being a categorical failure.
Toronto's fan base ought to be nothing but smiles on Tuesday. The Jays, on paper, are likely the best team in the AL East right now. Pennants are won on the field, of course, but Toronto's offseason revamping has been astonishing. We don't know yet if the wins will materialize, but despite what sports movies always tell us, being the favorite is a better position than being the underdog.
Here is a list of the home runs the Yankees hit last year by players who won't be playing for them in 2012:
Swisher 24
Martin 21
Ibanez 19
Rodriguez 18
Chavez 15
Jones 14
Total 111
Here is a list of how the Yankees have replaced them:
Added:
Youkilis 15
Ichiro (full season) 3
Gardner 5
Total 23
Net minus -88
That alone should cost them about 11. That takes you to Szymborski's 87. As he is assuming all of their geriatrics will play full season, breakdowns should cost them another ten, bringing the Yankees down in the 77-80 win range. The big question is: will the 2013 Yankees be able to stay out of the cellar after shedding all this offense and getting so much older.
Swisher 24
Martin 21
Ibanez 19
Rodriguez 18
Chavez 15
Jones 14
Total 111
Here is a list of how the Yankees have replaced them:
Added:
Youkilis 15
Ichiro (full season) 3
Gardner 5
Total 23
Net minus -88
That alone should cost them about 11. That takes you to Szymborski's 87. As he is assuming all of their geriatrics will play full season, breakdowns should cost them another ten, bringing the Yankees down in the 77-80 win range. The big question is: will the 2013 Yankees be able to stay out of the cellar after shedding all this offense and getting so much older.
Gee, rumps, your math is astounding.
You take the home runs of 6 guys leaving against the home runs of 3 guys, supposedly added, but 2 who were members of the Yankees.
Don't you think the Yankees will add 3 players to replace the ones that are not there anymore?
Besides, Rodriquez should be coming back in mid season. He missed a lot of the season last year. How come you don't count any HR's for him?
Swisher, Ibanez, Chavez haven't signed anywhere yet, by the way. I am not saying they won't soon.
But you do have funny math, rumps.
It shouldn't take a genius to figure out why I added to the numbers of the two returning. 1) Suzuki was not a member of the Yankees for the entire season, so he should give the Yankees more than he gave them last year. 2) Gardner missed the whole season.
As for the Yankees adding, well, maybe but they've already made it clear that they aren't spending money so anyone they're likely to add won't contribute much. For example, they've made it clear that they're adding Cervelli to replace Martin.
As for A-Rod, we'll see if he returns and what kind of power he can generate with two bad hips.
Odd that someone who doesn't understand math should call mine funny.
I don't understand math. Haha, rumps, you're always the same old cantankerous, condescending man in every post you make. You're attitude: You're great; every one else is stupid.
How'd your election math work out? :eyebrows: Recovered yet???
The Yankees will be paying A-Rod a minimum of $115 million for the next 5 years if there is no trade. In his condition there won't be. Try some math to figure out how many great players the Yanks will miss because of the payout.
BTW...your Fox Noise reality sure came through huh. Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Cheers bud,
Merlot
He's still waiting for the returns from Pennsylvania, Merlot.
In 1997, the Tampa Bay Rays lost 96 games. Prior to the 1998 season, all the scouts said the Rays would lose their usual 95-100 games. Not Nate Silver. He said they'd win over 90. They won 97. How'd he do it? Simple. Advanced statistical analysis and performance prognosis, in particular the PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) a sabermetric system for forecasting player performance that he developed.
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