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2014 Official NFL Thread

May 28, 2012
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May 28, 2012
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daydreamer41

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CBS Sports July 22, 2015 at 7.25pm

Harvard Study: Dolphins will win AFC in 2015, Giants will win NFC East

You've probably heard of Harvard.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts school is known for a lot of things, like producing Nobel winners, presidents and Supreme Court Justices.

One thing the school's not known for though is its NFL picks. However, that could change if the Dolphins somehow manage to win the AFC this year, which Kurt Bullard is predicting will happen.

Bullard designed a prediction model for the 2015 NFL season that was published on the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) webpage Wednesday and that model is predicting that the Dolphins will be the best team in the AFC, followed by the Chiefs and Patriots.

So how exactly does Bullard's prediction model work?

I'll let him explain.

From the HSAC page.

The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value statistic, the site's best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN's NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team's per game approximate value of what I considered to be the 'core' makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 'Front Seven' defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.

Basically, on offense, it comes down to a team's top seven players vs. another team's top seven players. On defense, it comes down to one team's top-9 vs. another team's top-9.

Bullard's model doesn't take the schedule into account, which I think is going to kill the Chiefs. Kansas City opens up at Houston, before hosting Denver on Thursday night. After that, the Chiefs will spend their next two weeks on the road against the Packers and Bengals.

That could be 0-4 for Kansas City and 0-4 teams don't make the playoffs. Actually, one 0-4 team did, the 1992 Chargers.

UPDATE (July 23, 11 a.m.): Bullard has clarified that his model does take the schedule into account. That being said, I still think the Chiefs are going to fall flat on their face during the season's first four weeks.

As for other weird nuances in Bullard's model: The Ravens are ranked 28th, the Vikings are ranked 25th, and the highest ranked NFC South team (Atlanta) is 18th overall.

It's probably also worth noting that the Giants, at No. 13, are the highest ranked team in the NFC East. Sorry Cowboys and Eagles fans.

You can see each team's ranking below, along with the team's percentage chance of making the playoffs.

In some cases, a team with a higher ranking has a lower playoff percentage than a team below it because of how the postseason is set up.

For instance, although the Falcons are ranked 18th, they have the 12th highest playoff percentage because a team from the NFC South -- no matter how bad it is -- has to make the playoffs.

2015 NFL prediction from the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective

(Overall ranking, team, percentage chance of making playoffs)

1. Seattle Seahawks: 95 percent chance of making the playoffs (Highest chance)

2. Green Bay Packers 93 percent

3. Miami Dolphins 77 percent

4. Kansas City Chiefs: 66 percent

5. New England Patriots: 62 percent

6. Denver Broncos: 62 percent

7. Detroit Lions: 53 percent

8. New York Jets: 56 percent

9. Indianapolis Colts: 62 percent

10. Buffalo Bills: 43 percent

11. Pittsburgh Steelers: 51 percent

12. Houston Texans: 54 percent

13. NY Giants: 42 percent

14. Cincinnati Bengals: 39 percent

15. Philadelphia Eagles: 35 percent

16. Dallas Cowboys: 23 percent

17. San Diego Chargers: 33 percent

18. Atlanta Falcons: 51 percent

19. New Orleans Saints: 42 percent

20. Arizona Cardinals: 29 percent

21. Chicago Bears: 25 percent

22. Washington Redskins: 18 percent

23. Carolina Panthers: 19 percent

24. Cleveland Browns: 20 percent

25. Minnesota Vikings: 12 percent

26. San Francisco 49ers: 12 percent

27. St. Louis Rams: 10 percent

28. Baltimore Ravens: 9 percent

29. Jacksonville Jaguars: 3 percent

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3 percent

31. Tennessee Titans: 2 percent

32. Oakland Raiders: 1 percent

Just in case you're wondering what the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) is, it's "a student-run organization at Harvard College dedicated to the quantitative analysis of sports strategy and management. Founded in 2006, the club meets weekly and is for students interested in sports statistics, sports business, and problem solving. HSAC has become an analysis partner for several sports related publications and companies and we are available to engage in additional projects."

EDITORIAL COMMENT: If CBS Sports really believes this then the Fins are doomed. Frankly I'd tend to believe them if the Fins had a real coach, but hopefully one will come in 2016.

Have the NY Jets improved that much over last year to have a better than 50 percent chance of making the playoffs?
 
May 28, 2012
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Have the NY Jets improved that much over last year to have a better than 50 percent chance of making the playoffs?

The Jets really did a nice job during the off season. Interestingly, the Jets are very close to the position of the Fins regarding needs. They both need a good Guard and they both have unproven Quaterbacks (Jets more so than the Fins). The only difference is that the Jets got the real coach and the Fins remained with the imposter. I personally think a good trade would be Philbin & Dion Jordan for Todd Bowles. I'll even throw in an autographed picture of Tom Brady not cheating (no really, I'm sure I can find one during his high school years).....LOL
 
May 28, 2012
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Merlot

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HELLO ALL :D

THE BEST POSSIBLE DECISION HAS HAPPENED: Goodell Upholds HIS Original 4-game Suspension!!!PERFECT!!!


Though many in New England had thought Goodell might stick to his original punishment most had been saying if he had any brains at all he'd decrease the suspension to 2 or 3 games just to try to fool the appeals court into thinking he was trying to be thoughtful, magnanimous, and apply some kind of justice. New Englanders were a little concerned such a ploy could be bought, though not really. We also worried that if the suspension was brought down to 1 or 2 games that Brady might not fight it, of course it's really not in his character to quit. What has happened now is the best case scenario. Goodell looks like a tyrant trying to impose a punishment that's crazily out of wack with the previous penalty to Brett Favre of a $50,000 fine for a matching offense of not turning over his phone and will look like an overbearing irrational fool to the courts, a position he's used to about every time an appeals court looks at his judgements.

So why did he do it:

1. No matter how foolish the courts make him look by overturning his decisions it has not affected his position with the owners in the past.

2. Though an arbiter is bound to decide on merit, some owners have been known to be badgering him to stick to his original decision, especially Irsay of the Colts....the team that started all the shit to begin with.

3. No matter what the courts do Goodell will look like a hero to all the foaming vapid HATERS.

4. His ego and his arrogance simply won't allow it.

5. He's a coward. Remember Brady has never been accused of doing anything except knowing ("more likely than not he was aware") something was going on. If he handled this the same way he did in the previous for the only offense he can prove, not handing over the phone, it's a $50,000 period. But after letting the phony Chris Mortensen report get out of hand which badly distorted what had happened Goodell let himself get overrun by the tide of public hating> it might have been about misunderstanding but it could easily have been about exploiting an opportunity to reassert his power after the disaster of how he handled the Ray Rice incident.

This decision has been all about Goodell saving Goodell's ass. NOTHING ELSE!



NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell Upholds Tom Brady's Deflate-Gate Suspension

by Erin McClam

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/...ds-tom-bradys-deflate-gate-suspension-n399821

The NFL on Tuesday upheld its four-game suspension of Tom Brady, the star quarterback of the New England Patriots — and said he had his phone destroyed just before he met with Deflate-Gate investigators.

The players union said it would appeal what they called an "outrageous decision." Unless Brady wins in court, he will sit out a quarter of the Patriots' season as they defend their Super Bowl title.

"Brady's deliberate destruction of potentially relevant evidence went beyond a mere failure to cooperate in the investigation and supported a finding that he had sought to hide evidence of his own participation in the underlying scheme to alter the footballs," the NFL said in announcing the ruling.

Commissioner Roger Goodell wrote that Brady, one of the most marketable athletes in the sport, "engaged in conduct detrimental to the integrity of, and public confidence in, the game of professional football."

An investigator hired by the league concluded earlier this year that there was "substantial and credible evidence" that Patriots personnel deflated footballs before the AFC championship game, and that Brady knew about it. Brady has denied wrongdoing.

The NFL on Tuesday filed suit in federal court to confirm the suspension. Brady has authorized the player's union, the National Football League Players Association, to appeal the suspension.

The NFLPA said it would appeal. The union said the league had no policy that applied to players, and the NFL violated the collective bargaining agreement.

"The fact that the NFL would resort to basing a suspension on a smoke screen of irrelevant text messages instead of admitting that they have all of the phone records they asked for is a new low, even for them, but it does nothing to correct their errors," the union said.

Read more from ProFootballTalk: Tom Brady's agent calls NFL appeal process "a sham"

A football inflated under the minimum pressure can be easier to grip, especially in bad weather, as the Patriots and Indianapolis Colts faced in the championship game.

Besides the four-game suspension of Brady, the team was fined $1 million and stripped of two draft picks.

Brady's agent and attorney, Don Yee, said "the appeal process was a sham, resulting in the Commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision."

"The Commissioner's decision is deeply disappointing, but not surprising because the appeal process was thoroughly lacking in procedural fairness," Yee said. "Most importantly, neither Tom nor the Patriots did anything wrong. And the NFL has no evidence that anything inappropriate occurred."

The NFL said that Brady had the phone destroyed just before he met with Ted Wells, the NFL investigator, on March 6. The destruction was not disclosed until June 18, the league said.

Brady told the league that he routinely has his old phone destroyed when he gets a new one. But he offered no explanation for why he had his phone destroyed just before the meeting after using it for four months, the commissioner said.

Yee said Brady and his representatives turned over "an unprecedented amount of electronic data" during the investigation.

"Tom was completely transparent. All of the electronic information was ignored; we don't know why," Yee said, adding that more details about Brady's cooperation would be presented in the coming days.

The investigator's report also faulted a Patriots locker room attendant and an equipment manager and included incriminating texts between the two. One of them referred to himself as "the deflator."

John Jastremski, the equipment manager, texted Brady on Jan. 19, the day after the championship game: "Dave will be picking your brain later about it. He's not accusing me or anyone. Trying to get to the bottom of it. He knows it's unrealistic you did it yourself."


NOW THERE WILL BE AN INJUNCTION AND BRADY WILL PLAY.

THE COURT WILL LAMBAST GOODELL AS HE ALWAYS EXPECTED AND ERASE HIS PENALTIES.


BRAVO Goodell BRAVO! :thumb:

Merlot
 

lgna69xxx

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Nice to see cheaters are not taken lightly by MISTER Goodell. After looking at the schedule, no wonder the cheatriots are mad because 3 of the four games tommy-boy will miss are tough games against the Bills, Cowboys and Steelers with the only easy game versus Jacksonville.

Word has it that when asked how he feels about the decision by Mister Goodell earlier today, Shady bRady said he was simply, "deflated" about the whole situation. :lol:

Mister Goodell, you made a lot of new fans today sir :thumb:

One of many GRRRREAT articles continuing to come out:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2015/07/28/armour-tom-brady-deflategate-cover-up/30791437/

PS....Hey MISTER .T, what are the chances the Cheatriots will miss the playoffs if the SHADY one does in fact miss all four of those games?

Man, how the boston sports teams have fallen from grace so quickly..... love it!
 
May 28, 2012
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This news is good and bad. The game as a whole will suffer from the lack of sportsmanship demonstrated BY BOTH SIDES. The suspension will never see the light of day until either late in the season or 2016. I'm betting on 2016.

On the flip side of the issue, it's really great to be seeing the NFL backing up its talk with action. Brady had ample chance to minimize the impact, but he doesn't appear to be concerned about dragging the NFL through the mud. I'm betting that Goddell would have settled for 1 to 2 weeks. Instead it was clear from the start that Brady was going for broke and not settling.

I'd prefer that the suspensions take effect at the beginning of the season so my Fins could honestly beat the Pats. I don't want it being said that the Fins faced a second rate squad. I was really looking forward to seeing multiple sacks of Brady with lots of aqua-marine surrounding him.

But everyone shouldn't panic, I have more pics to share:

 

Merlot

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:D

PS....Hey MISTER .T, what are the chances the Cheatriots will miss the playoffs if the SHADY one does in fact miss all four of those games?

ROFLMAO!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: First running to Joe blow the puppet for anything is hilarious. Then wonder boy says the same thing every year.

GUARANTEED PREDICTION: "The Patriots will finish in last place out of the playoffs"...like I said last year - Joe.t - BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

U guys :crazy:

Merlot
 
May 28, 2012
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And here's the part that's probably got Melot's panties in a twist, Brady destroyed the cell phone that he used to communicate his cheating with. Bottom line is that the cover-up is worse than the crime. Brady and Nixon were made for each other....LOL Brady's legacy is totally trash. There's always going to be an asterisk by his name...LOL
 

daydreamer41

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Hmm, I say destroying evidence and cover up is a serious violation of trust. An American President was forced to resign because of erased tapes. I say Brady will lose in court. No Sham here, Mr. Yee.

(CNN)The National Football League has upheld a four-game suspension of New England Patriots star quarterback Tom Brady for his role in the football tampering scandal known as "Deflategate," the league announced in a news release Tuesday.

Commissioner Roger Goodell, in affirming the suspension he handed down in May, said new information about the destruction of Brady's cell phone showed the four-time Super Bowl champion "sought to hide evidence of his own participation in the underlying scheme to alter the footballs."

Don Yee, Brady's agent and attorney, said Brady did nothing wrong.

"The appeal process was a sham, resulting in the commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision," Yee said.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/28/us/tom-brady-deflategate-suspension-upheld/
 

daydreamer41

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And here's the part that's probably got Melot's panties in a twist, Brady destroyed the cell phone that he used to communicate his cheating with. Bottom line is that the cover-up is worse than the crime. Brady and Nixon were made for each other....LOL Brady's legacy is totally trash. There's always going to be an asterisk by his name...LOL

Great minds think alike, Mr. Vercingentorix.
 

daydreamer41

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:D



ROFLMAO!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: First running to Joe blow for anything is hilarious. Then wonder boy says the same thing every year.

GUARANTEED PREDICTION: "The Patriots will finish in last place out of the playoffs"...like I said last year - Joe.t - BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

U guys :crazy:

Merlot

Hey, Merlot, show some respect Mr. Joe.t. He wipes your clock clean everyday in the baseball thread and in here. Calling him Joe blow is very low. People are watching.
 
May 28, 2012
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Hey, Merlot, show some respect Mr. Joe.t. He wipes your clock clean everyday in the baseball thread and in here. Calling him Joe blow is very low. People are watching.

Me thinks that Merlot is having second thoughts about Shady Brady with the most recent disclosures. I mean it's a little like Hillary's defense of the erasure of her mail server. Brady is asking us to believe him once he's destroyed the evidence. The reality is that Brady knows that the phone could have been supeoned when he takes the case to court, thus the damning evidence is gone. So while he proclaims his innocence, having destroyed the "mail server", the world will know the truth. The disclosure of the destroyed phone is the equivilent of a nuclear bomb for Brady's career. Everyone is going to be asking themselves what he was hiding? I mean why else would you destroy a cell phone? The real kicker is that despite now having doubts about his own hero, Melot will feign support for Brady to the end in order not to have to admit to his own mistake in judgment. Brady and Gronkowski have a new line of specially branded sports apparel coming out shortly. I'd hate to be the stores that put out advanced orders on the stuff. That slashing sound you hear is the retailers slashing prices to get rid of the stuff....LOL


AND PETE ROSE SAYS: SAY IT ISN'T SO TOM, SAY IT ISN'T SO....

 

smuler

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What honor is vindicated now ? :lol:

Cracks me up

Best Regards

Smuler
 

daydreamer41

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What honor is vindicated now ? :lol:

Cracks me up

Best Regards

Smuler

So according to Merlot, Goodell is the problem. Yeah, right. It's like the police officer getting blamed for arresting a drunk driver. :confused::noidea:
 

Merlot

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What honor is vindicated now ? :lol:

Smuler

Yes, you're so honorable mimicking your pals and kissing up to them, playing the phony hate game. No honor is lost over an issue that's a completely made up fraud from the start...especially when there's a power mad clown judging his own decisions, which were based on nothing more than lowering himself to the drooling lust of the mob in the first place.

Try being your own man. ONCE!



and...if you think any of this is over guess again.

:thumb:

Merlot
 

daydreamer41

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Yes, you're so honorable mimicking your pals and kissing up to them, playing the phony hate game. No honor is lost over an issue that's a completely made up fraud from the start...especially when there's a power mad clown judging his own decisions, which were based on nothing more than lowering himself to the drooling lust of the mob in the first place.

Try being your own man. ONCE!



:thumb:

Merlot

Notice if anyone disagrees with the self proclaimed master Merlot is called a hater. Where did we see this before? :confused:
 

lgna69xxx

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None and for the record, the words "Honor" and "pAtriots" have not gone together in over a decade and it will take DECADES to get that back if ever. Thank You once again, MISTER Goodell :thumb:

(Goodell made one mistake tho with the more and more evidence coming out that brady really is Shady, he should have benched his prima donna ass for a whole season without pay and made Giselle file for divorce....... wait a second, shady might have liked that second part so scratch that idea haha)

What honor is vindicated now ? :lol:

Cracks me up

Best Regards

Smuler
 
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