Coronavirus
- Thread starter C.B. Brown
- Start date
Maybe less, because the herd immunuty kicks in at 70-75%.
But let’s say we want that. It is easy to calculate how many will die in the US if the heard immunity is 75%, and mortality rate is 0.2%. We can even say it will be over in 6 months. In the meantime, food supply chain will be severely disrupted, as the workers at food processing plants get sick. What do you think will happen when a well armed population gets hungry?
You are joking...right?
The guy is a right wing nut case lawyer and not a reasonable thinking scientist or doctor.
When the dust settles in a few months....the mortality rate worldwide will stand at 2 to 3 %
A note on the Santa Clara data. Results obtained were not from testing but from a review of data regarding prevalence of seasonal flu-like symptoms. It infers a higher than anticipated infection rate (symptomatic + asymp) which therefore means a lower mortality rate. So yes, it could be we end up with a 0.3, or even lower, overall rate. That is actually positive news.
However, Santa Clara is a wealthy county. Very wealthy. No one there is without insurance and access to top notch healthcare. These figures for estimated mortality do not extrapolate very far. They certainly do not extrapolate to a completely different social and ethnic demographic of say, rural Midwest, NYC, or even Montreal.
This has been a fun forum to read. The diversity of source information that feeds into it is eye-popping.
However, Santa Clara is a wealthy county. Very wealthy. No one there is without insurance and access to top notch healthcare. These figures for estimated mortality do not extrapolate very far. They certainly do not extrapolate to a completely different social and ethnic demographic of say, rural Midwest, NYC, or even Montreal.
This has been a fun forum to read. The diversity of source information that feeds into it is eye-popping.
I am dead serious. If one is a right wing nut, and one takes information from a right wing nut source, he/she ought to take that information and make a logical conclusion, using a simple math. Right wing nuts often omit the last step. I just wanted to show what they may get once they do that.
In other words, a population that lives in single homes may get affected differently than the population that lives in multi-dwelling homes. It’s not that people do not understand that, it is that they don’t care IF they happen to live in a single family home.
So you are suggesting that there will be 228,450,000 deaths from china virus realized globally in the next month or two? Seriously?
Your calculation is dead wrong...... absurdly so. Firstly since when is 1 or 2 months equal to a few months. If that was the case then I would have written a couple of months.
We were never talking about a percent of worldwide population. If you`ve been away then you can be forgiven for not realizing that I`m talking about a percentage of deaths among reported cases of covid19. So the figure you post of 228,450,000 is off by more than a couple of hundred million.
We were never talking about a percent of worldwide population. If you`ve been away then you can be forgiven for not realizing that I`m talking about a percentage of deaths among reported cases of covid19. So the figure you post of 228,450,000 is off by more than a couple of hundred million.
This is all BS as the infection rate and the number of positive tested cases are fluid numbers and depend on many variables. At the end the only total number of the COVID death per say 1M of population would make sense. And not reported (or misreported) but real. You don’t need to know the number of infected people for this. Just subtract the number of deaths from this year with COVID from the total number of deaths from the previous 2019. You can also go month by month, but it is less accurate. The death rate (DR) in US changes (increases) by about 1% from year to year without any pandemic. We will see what increase in the DR this COVID pandemic will bring. Make your bets gentlemen.
The number of deaths per population is just as misleading a measurement since different countries are at different stages of infection as well as cycles. In a few months we should have a better idea. Even if 75% of a country is tested its still going to be a fluid scenario.
I am not talking about the current death rate, but the death rate calculated and compared when pandemic is over. Hopefully in 2-3 years the death rate will go to “normal” numbers. My bet is that COVID pandemic will increase the US yearly death rate by 5-10% in 2020.
Your words ... in a few months .... that took into account the 'few months' now we've been at this china virus thing ...
Your words ... mortality rate world wide stand at 2-3$ ... that number I posted IS 3% of world wide population ...
Of Course the number of case will continue to grow ... as more testing is done - I bet many MA-NY on this Board have had this virus and didn't know it cuz you wee NOT tested - just a chest cold or little congestion - felt better with your regular remedy - Nyquil, Tyleno Cold/ Flu.
And yes, people will continue to die ... as they do with the flu ...
And yes, flu comes back in the late fall and will impact people because the shot doesn't;t cover every strain ... surprise surprise ... will be same with latest china virus ...
Will be especially BAD in the fall ... i assure you ... know how I know? I bet you intellects can figure it out ... come on, who knows? Raise you hand or just shout out the answer
A Stanford University doctor writes in the NY Post:
Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns
By Scott Atlas April 26, 2020 |
nypost.com
The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been enormous, and New York has suffered more than anywhere else in the world. Compared as a separate country, the New York area would rank, by far, as No. 1 for deaths per capita.
The New York-New Jersey-Connecticut tri-state area accounts for approximately 60 percent of all US deaths. Theories abound, but the New York area itself is different: New York is the top port of entry for the hundreds of thousands of tourists coming to the US every month from China; Gotham has a uniquely high density of living that swells daily by millions from workers and tourists; and Manhattan sees some 1.6 million commuters daily, mostly on crowded public transit, including 320,000 from Jersey alone.
Yet the pandemic toll is falling, dramatically so in New York, *including both hospitalizations and deaths per day. Few doubt that the unprecedented isolation policies had a significant *impact on “flattening the curves.”
Now, we face another, even greater problem: how to sensibly re-enter normal life. This must be based on what we now know, not on worst-case projections, using facts and fundamental medical knowledge, not fear or single-vision policies.
First, we know the risk of *dying from COVID-19 is far lower than initially thought, and not significant for the overwhelming majority of those infected.
Multiple recent studies from Iceland, Germany, USC, Stanford and New York City all suggest that the fatality rate if infected is likely far lower than early estimates, perhaps under 0.1 to 0.4 percent, i.e., 10 to 40 times lower than estimates that motivated extreme isolation.
In the Big Apple, with almost one-third of all US deaths, the rate of death for all people ages 18 to 45 is 0.01 percent, or 13 per 100,000 in the population, one-eightieth of the rate for people aged 75 and over. For people under 18, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. Of Empire State fatalities, almost two-thirds were over 70 years of age. And regardless of age, if you don’t already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small. Of 7,959 NYC COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions, 99.2 percent had an underlying illness.
Second, protecting older, at-risk people helps prevent hospital overcrowding. Of New York City’s 38,000 hospitalizations, less than 1 percent have been patients under 18 years of age. Studying 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded: “Age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.”
Recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness than early World Health Organization reports that noted 80 percent of all cases were mild. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people don’t get hospitalized.
Third, due to fear and the single-minded focus on COVID-19 regardless of cost, other people are dying. Critical medical care isn’t being provided. Millions of Americans have missed critical health care for fear of encountering the disease, and people are dying to make room for “potential” coronavirus patients.
When states and hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery, that didn’t mean unimportant care. Treatments for the most serious illnesses, including emergency care, were missed. Some estimate about half of cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. Approximately 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Perhaps half or more of acute stroke and heart-attack *patients missed their only chances for early treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability. Transplants from living donors are down 85 percent from the same period last year.
And that doesn’t include the skipped cancer screenings, avoided childhood vaccinations, missed biopsies of now undiscovered cancers numbering thousands per week — and countless other serious disorders left undiagnosed.
Lastly, total isolation prevents broad population immunity and prolongs the problem.
We know from decades of medical science that infection causes individuals to generate an immune response (antibodies), and the population later develops immunity. Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases: to assist with “herd immunity.”
In the COVID-19 epicenter, Gotham, higher immunity is likely, although undoubtedly muted by the extreme isolation. More than 20 percent of those tested had antibodies. While we don’t know with certainty that antibodies from COVID-19 stop infection, it would be expected, based on decades of virology science, including other coronavirus respiratory bugs, where immunity post-infection is thought to last for a year or more. That’s why scientists are hopeful about using COVID-19 antibodies to treat the sickest patients.
For population immunity, it is great news that half of infected people are asymptomatic and that medical care isn’t even necessary for the vast majority of people. That fact has been incorrectly portrayed as an urgent problem requiring mass isolation.
On the contrary, infected people are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread *immunity. By transmitting the *virus to others in lower-risk groups who then generate antibodies, pathways toward the most vulnerable people are blocked, ultimately eradicating the threat.
The curves have been flattened. Now, we must use established medical science and the evidence we have *gathered, and for New York City in particular, limit the enormous harms accumulating from broad isolation and economic lockdown. While New York is unique, strategy should now focus on rigorously protecting the most vulnerable and strictly regulate access to senior-care centers.
Officials must issue rational distancing guidelines to the elderly and their families, including self-isolating the mildly sick. Masks could be required for public transit. We know children and young adults in good health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19, so logic means opening most schools. With sensible precautions and sanitization standards, most workplaces and businesses should reopen. This would save lives, prevent overcrowding of hospitals, restore vital health care for everyone and allow the socializing essential to generate immunity among those with little risk of serious consequences.
Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford Medical Center.
Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns
By Scott Atlas April 26, 2020 |
nypost.com
The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been enormous, and New York has suffered more than anywhere else in the world. Compared as a separate country, the New York area would rank, by far, as No. 1 for deaths per capita.
The New York-New Jersey-Connecticut tri-state area accounts for approximately 60 percent of all US deaths. Theories abound, but the New York area itself is different: New York is the top port of entry for the hundreds of thousands of tourists coming to the US every month from China; Gotham has a uniquely high density of living that swells daily by millions from workers and tourists; and Manhattan sees some 1.6 million commuters daily, mostly on crowded public transit, including 320,000 from Jersey alone.
Yet the pandemic toll is falling, dramatically so in New York, *including both hospitalizations and deaths per day. Few doubt that the unprecedented isolation policies had a significant *impact on “flattening the curves.”
Now, we face another, even greater problem: how to sensibly re-enter normal life. This must be based on what we now know, not on worst-case projections, using facts and fundamental medical knowledge, not fear or single-vision policies.
First, we know the risk of *dying from COVID-19 is far lower than initially thought, and not significant for the overwhelming majority of those infected.
Multiple recent studies from Iceland, Germany, USC, Stanford and New York City all suggest that the fatality rate if infected is likely far lower than early estimates, perhaps under 0.1 to 0.4 percent, i.e., 10 to 40 times lower than estimates that motivated extreme isolation.
In the Big Apple, with almost one-third of all US deaths, the rate of death for all people ages 18 to 45 is 0.01 percent, or 13 per 100,000 in the population, one-eightieth of the rate for people aged 75 and over. For people under 18, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. Of Empire State fatalities, almost two-thirds were over 70 years of age. And regardless of age, if you don’t already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small. Of 7,959 NYC COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions, 99.2 percent had an underlying illness.
Second, protecting older, at-risk people helps prevent hospital overcrowding. Of New York City’s 38,000 hospitalizations, less than 1 percent have been patients under 18 years of age. Studying 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded: “Age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.”
Recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness than early World Health Organization reports that noted 80 percent of all cases were mild. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people don’t get hospitalized.
Third, due to fear and the single-minded focus on COVID-19 regardless of cost, other people are dying. Critical medical care isn’t being provided. Millions of Americans have missed critical health care for fear of encountering the disease, and people are dying to make room for “potential” coronavirus patients.
When states and hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery, that didn’t mean unimportant care. Treatments for the most serious illnesses, including emergency care, were missed. Some estimate about half of cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. Approximately 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Perhaps half or more of acute stroke and heart-attack *patients missed their only chances for early treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability. Transplants from living donors are down 85 percent from the same period last year.
And that doesn’t include the skipped cancer screenings, avoided childhood vaccinations, missed biopsies of now undiscovered cancers numbering thousands per week — and countless other serious disorders left undiagnosed.
Lastly, total isolation prevents broad population immunity and prolongs the problem.
We know from decades of medical science that infection causes individuals to generate an immune response (antibodies), and the population later develops immunity. Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases: to assist with “herd immunity.”
In the COVID-19 epicenter, Gotham, higher immunity is likely, although undoubtedly muted by the extreme isolation. More than 20 percent of those tested had antibodies. While we don’t know with certainty that antibodies from COVID-19 stop infection, it would be expected, based on decades of virology science, including other coronavirus respiratory bugs, where immunity post-infection is thought to last for a year or more. That’s why scientists are hopeful about using COVID-19 antibodies to treat the sickest patients.
For population immunity, it is great news that half of infected people are asymptomatic and that medical care isn’t even necessary for the vast majority of people. That fact has been incorrectly portrayed as an urgent problem requiring mass isolation.
On the contrary, infected people are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread *immunity. By transmitting the *virus to others in lower-risk groups who then generate antibodies, pathways toward the most vulnerable people are blocked, ultimately eradicating the threat.
The curves have been flattened. Now, we must use established medical science and the evidence we have *gathered, and for New York City in particular, limit the enormous harms accumulating from broad isolation and economic lockdown. While New York is unique, strategy should now focus on rigorously protecting the most vulnerable and strictly regulate access to senior-care centers.
Officials must issue rational distancing guidelines to the elderly and their families, including self-isolating the mildly sick. Masks could be required for public transit. We know children and young adults in good health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19, so logic means opening most schools. With sensible precautions and sanitization standards, most workplaces and businesses should reopen. This would save lives, prevent overcrowding of hospitals, restore vital health care for everyone and allow the socializing essential to generate immunity among those with little risk of serious consequences.
Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford Medical Center.
i fully agree with that NY Post article (dont generally like that rag though )
it is time to confront this virus head on. the sooner the heathly and younger 80% of the population can catch it and get over it, the sooner the older and weaker can be freed. We have to do it for them. I would not want to be an old person or a weakend person right now. Lets help them. (of course, we have to do it while not overwhelming the heath care facilities, but if only the young and healthy catch it, we wont)
)it is time to confront this virus head on. the sooner the heathly and younger 80% of the population can catch it and get over it, the sooner the older and weaker can be freed. We have to do it for them. I would not want to be an old person or a weakend person right now. Lets help them. (of course, we have to do it while not overwhelming the heath care facilities, but if only the young and healthy catch it, we wont)
It was great, especially considering that Fauci had previously said "Brad Pitt, of course" when asked by a reporter who he'd like to play him on SNL. Brilliant !
2fast2slow
I completely agree with you and that NY article and this is how things occur in nature. Besides we cannot live in fear locked up in our homes for years. Plus the government wants to use this opportunity to install a nanny state. Cannot let that ever happen. Help and protect the vulnerable and let the rest of us live our lives.
I completely agree with you and that NY article and this is how things occur in nature. Besides we cannot live in fear locked up in our homes for years. Plus the government wants to use this opportunity to install a nanny state. Cannot let that ever happen. Help and protect the vulnerable and let the rest of us live our lives.
Pepcid Being Used to Treat Covid 19 in NYC Hospitals
The strategy of trying whatever is reasonable that might possibly work seems to be what is being followed in New York City:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/health/famotidine-coronavirus-northwell-trial/index.html
The strategy of trying whatever is reasonable that might possibly work seems to be what is being followed in New York City:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/health/famotidine-coronavirus-northwell-trial/index.html
I don't know Capt'n. I read the article and it sounds compelling but how does he vote in elections? What does Alexander Orcasio Cortez think? "Like! Like!"
Thanks for the great post. Staying on this same path is insane! In my town of 80 thousand, I have inside information from staff. We have had two dead who were both sick people already and there are three others hospitalized and the hospital stands half empty. This is insane!!!
Thanks for the great post. Staying on this same path is insane! In my town of 80 thousand, I have inside information from staff. We have had two dead who were both sick people already and there are three others hospitalized and the hospital stands half empty. This is insane!!!
Experts Say Americans Venturing Out Due to "Quarantine Fatigue"
"Quarantine fatigue" has started according to the experts:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...a-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html?outputType=amp
I think part of it is also a sense that restrictions are being loosened as the curve begins to flatten. At this point only time will tell whether the trend has any consequences.
"Quarantine fatigue" has started according to the experts:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...a-a3eb-e9fc93160703_story.html?outputType=amp
I think part of it is also a sense that restrictions are being loosened as the curve begins to flatten. At this point only time will tell whether the trend has any consequences.
Quarantine fatigue. My ass!!!
Fatigued from being quarantined for how long? A month or so??
Remember: Anne Frank remained locked up in a small attic for nearly 2 years. Two years!!! She didn't complain. She spent the time writing a diary. The worse part of course is that the fucking Nazis still got her & murdered her!
Fatigued from being quarantined for how long? A month or so??
Remember: Anne Frank remained locked up in a small attic for nearly 2 years. Two years!!! She didn't complain. She spent the time writing a diary. The worse part of course is that the fucking Nazis still got her & murdered her!
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