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Fradi

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Apr 9, 2019
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Around the corner
I do agree Biden is not perfect and we should stay critical. But let us admit that the way he did on his first 100 days was over everybody's expectation relative to the vaccination.
[...]
I don’t quite get what you are after.
What did Bidet do that was so great,he inherited two ready and effective vaccines and proceeded to distribute them according to plans already made which he may or may not have improved obviously he will take credit for it why wouldn’t he.

[...]
 
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Mod21

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Jun 8, 2020
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Everyone,

While it is appropriate and on-topic to discuss and contrast Biden's and Trump's handling of the pandemic such as rollout of the vaccination, posts that veer into broader discussions of American politics such as the 2020 election are off-topic and belong in the political threads.

Fair warning, there will be consequences for those who persist and keep making off-topic comments.
 

Like_It_Hot

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Jun 27, 2010
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The next phase of the U.S. pandemic? Pockets of localized outbreaks. BYLOIS PARSHLEY PUBLISHED MAY 27, 2021 in the National Geographic​

Even if the access to this paper is free, you should sign-in to get full access. I copied the article as I know some do not want to sign-in,
A sudden surge in Fairbanks, Alaska, offers a cautionary tale for places that lift restrictions while local vaccination rates remain low.

People in Fairbanks, Alaska’s second-largest city, have embraced a return to normalcy. Alaska made national headlines in March as the first state to make vaccines available to any adult, and as the snow melted into a long-awaited spring, restaurants were packed, church pews were full, and schools reopened for in-person classes.

Yet signs of trouble became apparent before the trees had even budded. Demand for vaccinations swiftly plateaued; in early April, clinics could no longer fill their appointments. In the last two weeks of April, COVID-19 cases in the Fairbanks North Star Borough rose by 253 percent, and test positivity rates doubled to more than 10 percent. Fairbanks Memorial Hospital, which serves the entire Alaskan Interior, was soon wrestling with its largest spike of the pandemic.

No single outbreak or super-spreader event drove Fairbank’s surge, says Angelique Ramirez, a physician and the chief medical officer of the main health care system in Fairbanks. Rather, this spike is the inevitable result of reopening with low vaccination rates. As such, it’s a grim preview of what could be the next phase of the pandemic in the United States.

Ramirez describes the surge as “sobering.” The hospital hit its capacity in early May, and for three days, administrators had to consider whether they could care for every patient before admittance, sending cases as far away as Anchorage and Seattle. As the only hospital in the area, she was worried what might happen if her family got in a car accident, or needed even non-COVID medical care. “That’s just a serious point,” she says. “And we got there so quickly.”

The vaccines have proven highly effective at preventing severe disease and reducing transmission, and so far, the mRNA vaccines have proven effective against known variants. “But despite the Biden administration’s success in expanding vaccine campaigns, only 39 percent of the U.S. is fully vaccinated—leaving many Americans still vulnerable.”
 

Like_It_Hot

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Second part of the same article:

Resurgent epidemics

Fairbanks is not alone in seeing a disturbing number of cases. In many states, including Washington, Colorado, Michigan, and Maine, among the unvaccinated, transmission is still at winter-surge levels.

Public health experts warn that even as continuing vaccinations reduce the daily number of cases nationally, ongoing—and sometimes epidemic-scale—regional outbreaks will continue. A recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report suggests that by September 2021, “some states could reach levels of disease similar to those observed in late 2020.” The national average wouldn’t see resurgences in that size, because vaccinations will protect some communities.

Justin Lessler, a co-author of the report and an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health explains that every model has to make certain core assumptions, like the impact of interventions like masking. The report combined data from six different models, to improve accuracy and integrate different modeling decisions. It forecast a continuum of scenarios, from optimistic to pessimistic, with a lot of variability in potential outcomes—driven, in part, by how quickly people are vaccinated. Although, Lessler warns, “we can’t forecast human behavior.” Lessler says that in scenarios where there is a low vaccination rate and a lack of control measures—like in Fairbanks and much of rural America—“you start seeing resurgence epidemics in late summer and fall.”

Lessler adds that the recent CDC announcement that fully vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks in public places has led to “relaxing measures much more quickly, which could lead to significant resurgences.” The concern is that because there’s no easy way to verify who has been jabbed, unvaccinated people may choose not to wear masks, increasing risk for themselves and others. In fact, market-research firm Cardify looked at surveys and consumer spending and found that people who don’t plan to get the vaccine were more likely to go out to restaurants, salons, and other venues than those who have been vaccinated. Yet some states, like Texas, have gone as far as preemptively banning vaccine verifications. Theresa Chapple-McGruder, an epidemiologist, scoffs at the idea of an honor system for masking. “We don’t say get a driver’s license, but you don’t have to carry it.”


Masks are also coming off at the same time as more infectious variants are rising. The variant named B.1.1.7, which is about 50 percent more contagious than the original strain, is now responsible for the majority of U.S. cases. So far, there have been very few breakthrough cases, where people who have been vaccinated still get infected: about one in 10,000. But the risk of breakthrough infections increases when transmission is high in the community. That’s one reason many have criticized the communication of the new mask guidelines. The problem is in the policy that has been made as a result, which focuses on individual decisions, rather than on protecting vulnerable populations as a matter of policy. Public health, Chapple-McGruder says, is not just large-scale individual medical care. “When we’re hearing advice geared toward individuals, we’re missing the boat,” she says. “We need system-level approaches to ensure the public is healthy.”

 

Like_It_Hot

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Last part:

Compounding disparities in rural areas

Future outbreaks will likely be centered around those left vulnerable by low vaccination rates. “Right now, we’re at the level that we were in June of last year. We considered it horrific then, and now, we’re all opening up,” says Alan Morgan, chief executive officer of the National Rural Health Association (NRHA), who studies county-level data daily.

For some, vaccine hesitancy is the root of the problem. NRHA recently conducted a survey of almost 200 hospitals and found that even though healthcare workers have had access to shots for months, a third of rural hospitals reported that less than half of their employees had been vaccinated. Morgan notes that may cause a workforce problem if these employees get sick, making these communities less able to respond to surges. A recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that three in 10 Republicans, essential workers, and younger adults say they will definitely not get vaccinated. Rural residents also say they are less likely to wear a mask.


“There’s a real risk of a slow burn in rural places which the country ignores,” Morgan says. “The fact of the matter is I’m worried about rural America being a reservoir for COVID.”

These are often areas with already fragile health-care systems. Rural populations tend to be older, as well as health-compromised, whether from jobs with greater occupational hazards, or from difficulties accessing preventative care, explains Tom Mueller, assistant professor of sociology at Utah State University. “It’s hard to get rural healthcare, and it’s likely only gotten worse during the pandemic,” he says.

But he adds, “It’s important to remember rural America is not a monolith—it’s not just conservative white people.” There are also significant Black, Latino, and Native American rural communities, for whom, Mueller suspects, it’s more about access than hesitancy. Another Kaiser Family Foundation survey supports these suspicions; they found that less than half of Black adults say their rural communities have enough vaccine supply, compared to 59 percent of white rural adults.

Cities have similar equity issues, says Julia Raifman, who conducts research on health and social policies as an assistant professor at Boston University. “It’s not really a surprise that there are large racial and ethnic disparities in vaccinations,” she says. “That’s a logical result of our prioritization policies.” She points to structural barriers, like the ability to take time off work to recover from side effects, or transportation to get to vaccine appointments. Even being five miles from a clinic, as the Biden administration says 90 percent of Americans now are, is a hurdle if you don’t have access to a car. “I not only expect there will be outbreaks, but that the people most affected will continue to be Black, Latinx, and Native American,” Raifman says.

As the pandemic shifts into a new phase, Chapple-McGruder is concerned about children, who she says are now seeing a disproportionate burden of disease as adults get vaccinated; Texas and Iowa have nevertheless banned masks in schools. Morgan predicts that workplace exposures will continue to be significant. Last summer, he was able to anticipate surges in communities that have summer resort destinations, major truck stops, or processing plants—”communities where people travel in, congregate, and travel out again.” It’s a dynamic he expects will repeat this summer. Raifman adds the new CDC guidelines will exacerbate these disparities by removing indoor masking before many essential workers have a chance to be vaccinated.


For Ramirez, the new recommendations are also making it harder to do her job. Despite Fairbank’s surge, doctors and nurses at Fairbanks Memorial Hospital have been frustrated by patients refusing to wear masks within the hospital, which follows CDC guidelines for healthcare facilities that all individuals should be masked, regardless of vaccination status. She says the hospital has also had patients and family members who didn’t believe their doctors’ diagnoses. “When people tell you to your face they don’t believe what you’re saying—that really hits the core of the relationship between caregivers and patients.” And when patients don’t get better, it adds to the staff’s trauma. “It’s really hard when people die of preventable illnesses, and even harder when it’s a young person,” she says. “This didn’t have to happen—that pulls at people.”

The situation in Fairbanks is improving now; Ramirez says that as a low-density area, it doesn’t take much to reduce transmission, highlighting the importance of behavior. But looking ahead, Ramirez says she’s afraid COVID-19 is going to be an endemic disease in Alaska. “I think we lost our chance,” she says, referring to Alaska’s plateauing vaccination rates. “Which really brings home that until we have a significant number of people vaccinated, or people wear masks, we are at risk.”
 

IamNY

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Dec 27, 2005
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Prior to COVID for Memorial Day weekend I would normally take a drive through upstate NY with my golf clubs in hand and play several courses on my way north to Montreal. Then I would spend the rest of the weekend and sometimes the following week watching playoff hockey, getting massages, and seeing girls on my to do list. This weekend marks the second Memorial Day weekend that the borders have been closed because of CCOVID. If a buddy of mine had not shown me just how hot Quebecois girls were 20 years ago, I wouldn't care about the border closure. Next holiday weekend I would typically travel to Montreal would be on Canada day and depending on the weather, I would usually ride up on my motorcycle. I'm hoping for a border opening sometime this summer. COVID positivity rates are down in the states, in NY we are hovering around .5% for the past seven days. 65% of NY'ers have received at least one vaccine dose and 57% are fully vaccinated. Across the US the numbers are different, 51% with at least one vaccine dose and 41% have been fully vaccinated. Having no real choices for vacations in other countries I've done a lot of traveling through the US. But IMHO, nothing beats drinking a Bloody Caesar outside Old Port watching the girls go by. Wishing everyone the best this weekend and to enjoy the unofficial start to the summer.
 
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The Nature Boy

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Same here! Enjoy the long weekend, stay safe everyone!
 

IamNY

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Found two interesting articles about the border being closed due to COVID-19 and it’s eventual opening. First one is saying how if NHL players can cross the border to play hockey why not travelers. And the second article is about Maine opening it’s border with New Brunswick.



 

IamNY

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This one could also go in the NHL thread but I thought it was more fitting here because it has to do more about COVID than it does about hockey IMHO. If the 2 countries have figured out how to have hockey teams cross the borders many are going to be pissed off that it doesn't apply to regular people. Because of their relation to the NHL people on these teams can cross borders but for regular folks we must still wait and see. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy about this, but it's also bullshit that we can make this happen for sports but not for regular citizens that have suffered because of the border closure. Obviously not me, I just want the border opened for my own personal horny gains.

 

IamNY

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NY Governor Cuomo announced that when 70% of NY'ers have received at least one shot of the COVID vaccine he will lift "virtually all" COVID related restrictions. Currently NY is at 68.6 percent:

 

gallantca

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Jan 14, 2006
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NY Governor Cuomo announced that when 70% of NY'ers have received at least one shot of the COVID vaccine he will lift "virtually all" COVID related restrictions. Currently NY is at 68.6 percent:


Hard to believe but Quebec is at 72.8 according to this

 

IamNY

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Hard to believe but Quebec is at 72.8 according to this

Possibly NY is opening up because of the one shot percentage combined with the fully vaccinated numbers as well. Which may not really matter because the CDC recently posted that with at least one shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine the effective rate was 81%. All good news across the board:

 

gallantca

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Possibly NY is opening up because of the one shot percentage combined with the fully vaccinated numbers as well. Which may not really matter because the CDC recently posted that with at least one shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine the effective rate was 81%. All good news across the board:


yes. Agreed

But this is what we have to watch out for : Delta

The variants were given new "code names" Alpha is the first "British Variant, the one for the South African, another for the Brazilian and now "Delta" is the Indian version

A single dose of Pfizer was 80% effective on the original but only 32% on Delta.

Many places are still mostly dealing with the original strain so that 80% holds. But if Delta breaks out, all bets are off. This is why the government is pushing so hard to get the second dose injected.

This is why the UK, who was ahed of everyone (including the US) is now reconsidering their opening up.

The game is changing fast and the rules 2 months ago, no longer apply.

This is why I cringe when I see celebrations like last night. If the Indian variant is here, we're f'd. The government is doing a great job trying to re-energize a very tired population, but this war isn't over.

If we open up smart, we can guarantee to stay open. Too fast and we'll be back in confinement.
 

sene5hos

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Dec 26, 2019
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As Delta variant surges, outbreaks return in many parts of the world.

The highly contagious Delta variant is on the rise, and countries that hoped they had seen the worst of Covid-19 are being battered again.

The nightmare is returning.
In Indonesia, grave diggers are working into the night, as oxygen and vaccines are in short supply. In Europe, countries are slamming their doors shut once again, with quarantines and travel bans. In Bangladesh, urban garment workers fleeing an impending lockdown are almost assuredly seeding another coronavirus surge in their impoverished home villages.

And in countries like South Korea and Israel that seemed to have largely vanquished the virus, new clusters of disease have proliferated. Chinese health officials announced on Monday that they would build a giant quarantine center with up to 5,000 rooms to hold international travelers. Australia has ordered millions to stay at home.

A year and a half since it began racing across the globe with exponential efficiency, the pandemic is on the rise again in vast stretches of the world, driven largely by the new variants, particularly the highly contagious Delta variant first identified in India. From Africa to Asia, countries are suffering from record Covid-19 caseloads and deaths, even as wealthier nations with high vaccination rates have let their guard down, dispensing with mask mandates and reveling in life edging back toward normalcy.
 
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IamNY

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Found this one interesting. I was thinking about the people who have gotten COVID, survived it, and have developed the antibodies naturally. Looks like the Delta variant is so easily spread that many of the un vaccinated with help with getting closer to heard immunity. Me, I would rather be vaccinated, but it looks like herd immunity may happen with or without it:

 

gallantca

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Jan 14, 2006
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Found this one interesting. I was thinking about the people who have gotten COVID, survived it, and have developed the antibodies naturally. Looks like the Delta variant is so easily spread that many of the un vaccinated with help with getting closer to heard immunity. Me, I would rather be vaccinated, but it looks like herd immunity may happen with or without it:


I wonder how this will work.

Something like 58% of Americans are double vaccinated. To get to 85% you need another 27%

If 27% needs to catch it to get to herd immunity, how many people die in the process ?

Currently the 600,000 that died were after 10% of the population caught it. What would 27% of Americans catching it look like ?

I know, I know,... of the 27% some have already caught it. But science tells us the antibodies are there for months, not forever.

They do believe 99% of the people that will die moving forward will be unvaccinated. Too bad something so preventable will happen.
 

IamNY

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I wonder how this will work.

Something like 58% of Americans are double vaccinated. To get to 85% you need another 27%

If 27% needs to catch it to get to herd immunity, how many people die in the process ?

Currently the 600,000 that died were after 10% of the population caught it. What would 27% of Americans catching it look like ?

I know, I know,... of the 27% some have already caught it. But science tells us the antibodies are there for months, not forever.

They do believe 99% of the people that will die moving forward will be unvaccinated. Too bad something so preventable will happen.
First and foremost, I didn't interview Dr. Gotlieb, I just posted something that I thought was interesting. There are people out there that will not get vaccinated and will get COVID. These are the folks that will as you say "die in the process". that's their choice.

"Currently the 600,000 that died were after 10% of the population caught it. What would 27% of Americans catching it look like ?" I don't know, I didn't interview Dr. Gotlieb.

Dr. Gotlieb expressed his opinion and it was uplifting, unlike the crap from the media trying to scare the shit out of you on a daily basis. At least it was some positive news.

Dr. Gotlieb can be reached on The Twitter, maybe you can ask him your questions there:

 

cloudsurf

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May 10, 2003
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According to reputable news agencies like ABC and BBC only about 50% of American`s over 12 are double vaccinated.
25 to 30 % say that they don`t plan to get vaccinated. Herd immunity will be a long process in the States.
 
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