“However, Nicholls also said that he doesn't consider SARS or MERS, a Middle Eastern novel virus that spread in 2012, to be an accurate comparison for this year's outbreak. Rather, the novel coronavirus most closely relates to a severe case of the common cold.
"Compared to SARS and MERS, we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of eight to 10 times less deadly to SARS to MERS," Nicholls is quoted as having said on the conference call. "So, a correct comparison is not SARS or MERS but a severe cold. Basically, this is a severe form of the cold."
Hey, Patron,
Certainly, it is everyone's hope that the coronavirus acts just like the influenza virus and burns itself out in the spring, and thanks for that interesting article about its mechanism.
But I think Nicholls is being too cavalier by calling it just a severe cold.
The worldwide death toll for the novel coronavirus is 1,107. Total infected people is 44,138. That calculates to a 2.5% mortality rate.
The usual influenza (flu) viruses have a 0.01% mortality rate (1/1,000)
The SARS virus had a 9-10% mortality rate (9-10/100)
The novel coronavirus has a 2-3% mortality rate (2-3/100). It is 20-30 times more deadly than the common flu. And when was the last time you heard of someone dying of a severe cold?
The other thing is that Nicholls is merely voicing his educated guess that the coronavirus will burn itself out. The Chinese authorities that sanctioned that now deceased Chines opthalmalogist who first warned of this new virus elected to do nothing, and possibly have already indirectly caused hundreds of deaths by being cavalier. When one is in charge of public health, one has to account for worst case scenarios, not put one's head in the sand and hope for the best.