Coronavirus

[No_Church_InThe_Wild]

^^
It looks like that’s the way it’s going to play out ,,, It will hopefully slowly fizzle out with Herd immunity
So the goal is to keep it in check as much as possible and suppress it’s spread as to not overwhelm our healthcare infrastructure
So I figure the more time each one of us buys before we eventually catch it is going to give us a better chance of survival,,, with each week and month that goes by Doctors will be better prepared and informed as they’re learning new ways to best help the ill recover and survive this virus

 

[sorengard]

In a week or so we will be all in the lock down. So, this activity will end anyway for agencies, independent, etc. etc. The projection is that about 56% of population will get it. As Angela Merkel said today this is the race only to save time to increase chances for some people to survive with medical help. We can’t stop it without an effective vaccine. This will only end with the herd immunity I am afraid. It sucks.

Ha! about 56% huh? I promise you it won't come anywhere near that. This virus has been active for over three months and has yet to scale or go exponential. It's clearly following Farr's Law of Epidemics, which proves that large scale epidemics follow a symmetrical bell shape curve. It has been proven correct for AIDS, Ebola, & SARS. I suspect the U.S. and Canada CFR before any extra-ordinary measures are included will be 1% at the highest, more likely much lower based on the outcome Princess Diamond cruise ship (~15% infection rate in total despite central HVAC), which is the purest sample we have. Adjusting for the age demographics in the U.S, implies a CFR of 0.5%.

I'm surprised how little the supposed experts have thought through the implications of the actions we have rashly adopted to save ~1mn mostly elderly lives in the U.S. (midpoint of CDC analysis per the NYT). I fear the economic impact of these “preventative” measures will take longer to recover from than the time it takes to develop a vaccine. I include homelessness, poverty, bailouts and corporate bankruptcies, and deaths related to lack of adequate healthcare due to unemployment in my assessment. And before the virtue signalers begin their harping about the value of each and every life, we lose ~100,000 to the flu and traffic accidents per year and nobody utters a word. Yet, we literally shut down the entire economy for maybe ~ 1mn (more likely a number well below given our HC system and demographics). I suspect history will judge our behavior as a classic case of the cure being worse than the disease.

 

[minutemenX]

Ha! about 56% huh?

I suspect history will judge our behavior as a classic case of the cure being worse than the disease.

It is estimated that Hispanic flu infected about 30% of the world population and close to 50% in some countries. It did not go in a single wave. There were multiple waves. What you said is probably right for a single wave. Professionals argue that the second wave will start in China within several months. No country is a closed system. As for the economic impact, I agree. This is why in UK they initially proposed to isolate only seniors and let run it free.

 

[minutemenX]

Yes, Hispanic flue went down in about 18 months and there were about 3 waves in the US (the second was with higher "amplitude"). Herd immunity was reached well below 60-70% as some people were naturally immune and did not transmit.

 

[sorengard]

Yes, Hispanic flue went down in about 18 months and there were about 3 waves in the US (the second was with higher "amplitude"). Herd immunity was reached well below 60-70% as some people were naturally immune and did not transmit.

We shall see. I'd be shocked if this virus got above 20% infection rate, which would make the U.S. a six sigma outlier.

 

[minutemenX]

very important new signs of the corona infection:

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesells...ologe-hendrik-streeck-zum-virus-16681450.html

If somebody is fluent in German please translate. Otherwise use Google

 

[sorengard]

MinutemenX, that's a great article. Keeps the fear mongering in check. I appreciated the distinction between SARS-1 living in the lungs and SARS-2 living in the throat. Thanks.

 

[sorengard]

CLOUD 500

I'm afraid I agree with you. As I mentioned above, the parallels between this virus and 9/11 are uncanny. Then as now, we were told we can not allow the threat (i.e., terrorists or COVID-19) to win, the government needed extra-ordinary powers to fight said threat, and any attempt to question such an unchecked response was un-American. 9/11 gave us the Iraq War and the Patriot Act. I'm very interested in seeing what our vigilance will have purchased us this time around. My guess is 24/7 monitoring (cf. Israel's approach to the virus) and war powers for the governors (CA governor just locked down 40mn people).

 

[sorengard]

Quick update for those who may have been in a coma for the last three months:

A virus originating in China has killed 10,000 people globally, 90% of whom were over the age of 70 with pre-existing conditions. In response, the entire western world has closed its borders and shut down its economy proclaiming this to be the greatest threat since WWII, which claimed the lives of 85 million. By way of comparison, the WHO (more on them later) estimates there are approximately 7,000 newborn deaths every single day (seriously). Whereupon…

Dr. Fauci, the chief spokesman for the U.S. government’s corona virus strategy, tells people that he only knows he’s doing the right thing when people tell him “he’s over-reacting”. In response, global markets shed more than $16 trillion in a week, the fastest and largest route in history. This leads to…

President Trump, after promising that the “numbers would go to zero”, authorizing the largest stimulus package in history followed by the Treasury’s strategy of mailing every man, woman, and child $1,000 checks. The Democrats immediately proclaim this response to be insufficient and refuse to approve said package until it is raised to $2,000. Followed by…

California, as a “precaution”, locks down the entire state but releases convicted felons because it needs its police to guard its citizens from spreading said virus. Next…

The WHO condemns the U.S. for attributing the origin of the corona virus to China after praising China for being forthcoming and transparent about the origin of the virus. China responds by immediately expelling American journalists and then the very next day proclaiming it no longer has any cases of the virus. Last but not least…

America’s youth continues to support Senator Sander’s campaign to let the government run every aspect of our lives except when said government orders said youth to stop partying in the midst of a pandemic.

And the most amazing thing to happen this year? Tom Brady is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.

Welcome to 2020 folks

 

[Thor Jr]

Hello ladies and gentle men, do not be too judgmental of my activities, but in times of troubles like these, i like to help. Since i am home and still getting paid during these hard times, i am abstaining from seeing the ladies to help to not spread the virus. I respect the ladies who have decided to take this seriously and i know its hard on some of them. I said in an earlier page that i dont want the ladies to starve, so what i am doing in the past week is help the ladies, the ones i know and trust, i send them e-transfers for an hour of their time and when this blows over and we get back to our normal activities, i will be spending these hours with them. We all would be spending this money anyway, so why not? So, for the ladies who have kept in touch with me, you i guess are the fortunate ones. I hope all are well and we get back to normal soon.

 

[EagerBeaver]

California is now in a total lockdown. I think this is a sign that many states will soon be following suit:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/california-coronavirus-stay-home-order/index.html

The question in my mind is what is total lockdown. Can we still go to our office just to pick up the mail? Because as long as somebody can do that I can work from home.

 

[The Nature Boy]

The merb mods should start charging CAD $30,000 for the ability to read this thread as you can walk out with a fuckin MD. Sooooooo much info from epidemiologist and infectious disease dr’s here. Wonder if Faucis reading this??

EB total lock down is not total, u can go out to walk, walk dog, job, ride bike, just keep a distance from yourself to the next person. Preferably 6 feet. U can go to groceries, chemist, dr, and work if it’s essential. Ie physicians, dentists, pharmacist, firefighters, police officers, medics.

Not a total lock down, I have colleagues in countries where it’s total lock down and you get fuckin caned if your caught out and about

This is mild

 

[mr_scorpio]

I said in an earlier page that i dont want the ladies to starve, so what i am doing in the past week is help the ladies, the ones i know and trust, i send them e-transfers for an hour of their time and when this blows over and we get back to our normal activities, i will be spending these hours with them. We all would be spending this money anyway, so why not?

Kudos Thor for doing this. I am doing the same with no strings attached with my favorite sp as she is not working. I encourage all who can afford it to do the same.

 

[cloudsurf]

The WHO condemns the U.S. for attributing the origin of the corona virus to China after praising China for being forthcoming and transparent about the origin of the virus. China responds by immediately expelling American journalists and then the very next day proclaiming it no longer has any cases of the virus. Last but not least…

You mean any new community based cases. They are now starting to get imported cases in Shanghai and Beijing.

 

[Aspirine]

Following Thor advice, I also sent $$$ to a friend (SP) who stopped working last week. no strings attached of course. Its time to help guys.

 

[minutemenX]

In a month or so, there will be enough guys that are on the other side of the hill, i.e. recovered from the virus. They will probably have a tremendous itch. So, business will be booming again.

 

[Doc Holliday]

In a month or so, there will be enough guys that are on the other side of the hill, i.e. recovered from the virus. They will probably have a tremendous itch. So, business will be booming again.

I don't expect this thing to end until at least August or September but you're probably correct. Let me add that every single person who was outraged at the bbfs thing and are now okay with an sp & clients continuing to see one another today are hypocrites! It was fake outrage on their part!

 

[613ottawaguy]

Like I said before which Meta doesn't understand, the government is encouraging the closing of non essentials! Escorting is non essential! All those who are partaking in hobbying (clients and SPs) are contributing to deaths and its spread.

 

[EagerBeaver]

What sucks is the abstinence that is attaching to all of this and the seeming sentence of months and months of masturbation after washing hands with hand sanitizer. Someone in the thread had mentioned earlier paying SPs to Skype or FaceTime shows (which one can masturbate to, presumably). It seems like this will be the best we can do.

I had a takeout dinner last night with my longtime SA companion but we practiced social distancing, elbow shakes, no kissing and no intimacy. It was great to have her company even platonically, but one’s manly instincts do not stop, as we all know. And the inability to act on them is frustrating. There is gonna be a lot of masturbation happening.

 

[jalimon]

Like I said before which Meta doesn't understand, the government is encouraging the closing of non essentials! Escorting is non essential! All those who are partaking in hobbying (clients and SPs) are contributing to deaths and its spread.

Completely agree. At this point everyone should understand that we are facing a real threat. My work colleagues in Europe are scared shitless. Many reports of healthy 40 or 50 year old dying.

To all who say we should just let it go. Get it and hopefully not die until we are immune enough to not catch it again until a vaccine is produced I would say think about healthcare worker.

Healthcare worker currently risk their life everyday going to work for us! Fucking least we can do to support them is listen to orders and stay fucking home!