Election 2012: Will History repeat itself? Union National splits vote, PQ wins power.

[gugu]

EB, I understand that after reading the propaganda of the Sun news media (Québec owned btw) and unfortunately the Globe and Mail in the last two or three years, you may get a distorted view of what Québec really is. If you could read French, even the right wing federalist Gesca newspapers (including La Presse) would look left wing separatist in your eyes. I appreciate your willingness to make a more objective evaluation of things. I’d like to make a few statements to you:

1 Independence (separation) is not an issue in this election. Polls show that the support for independence is lower then ever before in the last 30 years. No serious political analyst believes that Marois will make a referendum in the next mandate.

2 I am not arguing that it would be a good thing, but if one day Québec decides for its independence, it has all what is needed to do: the territory, the population, the resources, the human resources, the economy. We compare with the Scandinavian countries for our GDP and quality of life. Of course our debt is important (50% of our GDP, 95% if we take into account our share of the federal debt.) It looks important, but even the ultra federalist premier Charest concedes that an independent Québec is perfectly viable economically.

3 The issue of First Nations is a very complex one. The Inuits have strong autonomous governments in Canada (Nunavut) and Québec (Nunavik). Among the Indians, the issue is mainly with the Baie-James Crees with whom the tensions were high at the time of the first implementation of the La Grande mega hydroelectric project. Tensions have decreased quite a lot since. Younger generations are schooled in French and they have signed majors agreements with the Québec Government (Paix des Braves 1 and 2). In both cases, their link to Québec would temper quite a lot their willingness to fight against Québec’s political choice.

3 The partition of the Montréal West Island and Outaouais is a fantasy that no serious political analyst contemplates.

4 About the equalization payments, it is true that they are relatively important. However, in the case of independence, they would be partly compensated by the benefits of gained from ending the duplicities in political and publics service structures.

It is getting more and more clear that Charest has lost the elections (and will probably lose his own riding). If we follow tecman’s ideas, the end of the world is coming soon. We still have a few days to hobby in Montreal before it crumbles in ruin.

 

[Tigers' WOOD!]

Independence (separation) is not an issue in this election. Polls show that the support for independence is lower then ever before in the last 30 years. No serious political analyst believes that Marois will make a referendum in the next mandate.

One of the issues in this election is the possibility of separation. Just having the PQ in power will cost Quebec ( and the rest of Canada ) Each time Marois talks about a referendum it will cost Quebec ( Canada ).

 

[sapman99]

Amusing, puzzling and sad

Ok, first of all this is a thread on a provincial election. I am seeing very little in terms of constructive discussion of why one party, leader or candidate should be chosen over another, and almost no discussion on the issues of this election itself.

There are a lot of issues at hand in this election, issues on which the outcome of the vote will hinge:

• Pauline Marois said Monday night (one-on-one debate with Charest on TVA) that she would first "gather the winning conditions" for a referendum and then call one. If that doesn't sound ominous to others it sure does to me. Parizeau did this as well. He used his time in office to exacerbate the disputes with the feds, and public money to "nationalize" everything in sight. When he felt that the masses had been properly "educated" he called his referendum card. We cannot afford a similar line of conduct from our elected government ever again. Using your time in power to ambush the federal system ans re-shape public opinion is despicable. I would "tolerate" a promise to hold a referendum by "such a date", but this open-ended thing is too much. She is buying time with the radicals. kidnapping the politics of the country at large (in part) and using her time in power to advance public opinion towards her party line.
• Like I have said before, the Liberals will reward their corporate donors and keep the unions moderately happy, while the PQ will reward the unions and keep the corps moderately happy. Same old same old
• Corruption: the Charbonneau Commission is likely to tarnish the Liberals, and the PQ to an extent
• Education and health: no real change proposals except from the CAQ
• Only Legault has had the courage to say that relations with the feds may be tense because of our negative balance sheet there

I see a discussion on the partition of Quebec, which is totally moot at this point because we are nowhere near a referendum. First we need to get the election over with. The equalization payments issue is loaded but is not per se a provincial election issue. And no one can claim to paint a clear portrait of provincial/federal money flow on those alone. Someone brought up dollars versus inhabitants for one. Then there is the matter of federal investments in infrastructures in the various provinces or the awarding of large contracts such as the latest navy vessels (Quebec lost big time). I am not trying to say here what is fair or unfair, just pointing out that its' simplistic just to point the finger at equalization.

I sometimes get this feeling that amuses, puzzles and makes me sad all at once. Its' when I read comments or quoted articles coming from our "outside Quebec" contributors: its' very obvious they enjoy coming to our province for the "Joie de Vivre", the nightlife, the festivals, the food, and lest I forget, pleasure. Yet when it comes to the political scene, I cannot help but feel the sneering. Most comments of that sort are not going to create positive political change.

I also hear freedom being touted a lot in the language debate. Some of what is brought up is correct, but lacks context. Not only that, but no one ever talked about the lack of freedom that exists in most US States in regards to sex work... Which is partly why you grace us with your presence every now and then. I even remember meeting an American girl here, because she had the freedom to do this legally in Canada.

If I posted on TERB for example, I wonder how much wrath my sneering at Mayor Ford and his "extreme righting" of Toronto would incur once it was discovered I was writing in from Montréal. Or if TERB had been around 1995-2002, I wonder how my criticism of Mike Harris and his "common sense revolution" would have been received.

I am not asking fellow MERB members who visit Québec not to post on local politics. All I am asking is to try to round out your opinions. There are plenty of English-language press sources you can access to get a more complete picture than Sun newspapers . Or even one isolated Globe & Mail opinion piece. In fact, it was very indicative of the mood of posters that this one G&M column made it here as opposed to many others.

P.S.: no, Toronto is definitely not Houston. I spent 15 years there 1981-1996, have been going back at least twice a year since then. This year, I got to spend three weeks there on a combination of work and personal time. Toronto is fantastic: very clean, lots of imaginative architecture on the numerous new towers, excellent restaurants and mini ethnic islands all over town. The TIFF (Toronto International Film Festival) is starting to be a better showcase for Québec cinema than "Le Festival des films du monde"...

 

[sapman99]

The debates

I have so far watched the three debates, one more tonight.

• Charest is already acting defeated. He cannot in good conscience continue to hold the reins, his hands are too slippery from all the corruption dirt. He also bungled the student situation badly.
• In some situations, in some elections, and with another leader, I may one day vote PQ. But certainly not this time and even less with Pauline Marois. If the PQ was ever "frank" about independence (as in "we are calling a referendum 90 days after the election"), ok. But in their dialectic "waiting for the winning conditions" is tantamount to using their time in power to change the game and create said conditions. This had been done in the past and involves both "the empty chair policy" and "losing out" on some good deals with Ottawa just for the purpose of demonstrating that Canada is not working.

For those not aware, there are four debates on French-language TV: the first one Sunday had the three major leaders and the Solidarité QC leader, on Radio-Canada. The other three are on TVA and involve 1-on-1 debates: Charest-Marois, Charest-Legault, Legault-Marois. The last one is tonight.


Anyone that says Marois won't call a referendum may be right. There is just no knowing what she will do, and that is bad. Not only that: if any supporter of Marois thinks she is not going to call a referendum, then they are calling her a liar and supporting her all at once. I understand that she is under pressure from the separatist wing of the party, but that is just too bad, and no excuse to lie. As for the Liberals, giving them a pass now for fear of the PQ is as stupid: they will see it as a last chance to fill their pockets.

We finally have a third party which is more credible than the ones who have surfaced over the last couple of decades. And many seem to see it as a vote-divider instead of an opportunity for change. The French-language press is giving Legault good-ok marks for the debates, and they are rising each night (the marks).

Hoping for him to make it to power may be wishful thinking, but it would be nice if he manages to create a minority government situation. I think this is what QC needs right now: Marois would be kept on her toes about these "winning conditions", and Charest would be watched like a hawk with corruption. Since the Charbonneau Commission will resume shortly after the elections, a minority gov't also makes it possible to successfully pass a non-confidence motion if both opposition parties back it :eyebrows:.

A word on an English debate

Techman correctly pointed out that Marois refused an English language debate. I have said before that the move was purely strategic, but that does not excuse the cynicism and total disrespect of the English community. In honour of the "empty chair policy" the PQ adopted in regards to fed-prov conferences back when they 1st gained power, I would organize the debate anyway, invite all three leaders and leave the PQ chair empty. We could either have silences or a pop-up commercial come on when it is their turn to talk...

 

[rumpleforeskiin]

Hoping for him to make it to power may be wishful thinking...

...but maybe not. The polls I've seen have him quite close 33 (PQ), 32 (Lib), 27 (CAQ). There are still 8% undecided and certainly some minds that may be swayed in the final days. I don't think anybody foresaw the size of the NDP rout here in Quebec in the last Federal election.

 

[gugu]

The latest poll (also from Léger), a week later, show movements from those figures: 33% (PQ), 28% (Lib) 27 (CAQ) undecided at 4%. Both polls are prior to the debates. French political analysts even from the pro liberal La Presse consider Charest will lose power. Tonight's debate is crucial for the CAQ. Legault performed very well yesterday against Charest. My prediction is that he will do as well tonight. IMHO, Marois's nationalist drive is the last few days may be costly for her. The game is difficult for her: she has to avoid losing nationalist votes to QS with the amazing performance by David in the debate. She played the nationalist card instead of the social policies for that purpose and it was an error IMHO. She also has to maintain her advance aver the CAQ. Her best card is also social policies here. She played the game pretty well so far, criticizing the unrealistic (from the time table point of view) CAQ program on health care and education. BTW, may I remind that the CAQ wants to abolish the school boards that are protected by the constitution.

 

[james t kirk]

EB, I understand that after reading the propaganda of the Sun news media (Québec owned btw) and unfortunately the Globe and Mail in the last two or three years, you may get a distorted view of what Québec really is. If you could read French, even the right wing federalist Gesca newspapers (including La Presse) would look left wing separatist in your eyes. I appreciate your willingness to make a more objective evaluation of things. I’d like to make a few statements to you:

1 Independence (separation) is not an issue in this election. Polls show that the support for independence is lower then ever before in the last 30 years. No serious political analyst believes that Marois will make a referendum in the next mandate.

2 I am not arguing that it would be a good thing, but if one day Québec decides for its independence, it has all what is needed to do: the territory, the population, the resources, the human resources, the economy. We compare with the Scandinavian countries for our GDP and quality of life. Of course our debt is important (50% of our GDP, 95% if we take into account our share of the federal debt.) It looks important, but even the ultra federalist premier Charest concedes that an independent Québec is perfectly viable economically.

3 The issue of First Nations is a very complex one. The Inuits have strong autonomous governments in Canada (Nunavut) and Québec (Nunavik). Among the Indians, the issue is mainly with the Baie-James Crees with whom the tensions were high at the time of the first implementation of the La Grande mega hydroelectric project. Tensions have decreased quite a lot since. Younger generations are schooled in French and they have signed majors agreements with the Québec Government (Paix des Braves 1 and 2). In both cases, their link to Québec would temper quite a lot their willingness to fight against Québec’s political choice.

3 The partition of the Montréal West Island and Outaouais is a fantasy that no serious political analyst contemplates.

4 About the equalization payments, it is true that they are relatively important. However, in the case of independence, they would be partly compensated by the benefits of gained from ending the duplicities in political and publics service structures.

It is getting more and more clear that Charest has lost the elections (and will probably lose his own riding). If we follow tecman’s ideas, the end of the world is coming soon. We still have a few days to hobby in Montreal before it crumbles in ruin.

Oh my....

Quebec would drown in debt. It would be more than 100% of GDP. An independent Quebec would have a bond rating of "junk" as opposed to AA stable which it currently enjoys. The elimination of billions in equalization payments, let alone billions in payments that flood into Quebec in the form of various other Federal programs. Quebec would need to declare bankruptcy and its currency would be worthless. Not a pleasant prospect.

You might think that a partition of Quebec is fantasy, but a great many people would not. If Canada is divisible, so too is Quebec. The north, Montreal, the west, all would vote to remain part of Canada. All you'd be left with is the middle and the east - the gov't bureaucrats in Quebec City. (Yep, they generate a lot of wealth.) Partition will be a massive disaster for Quebec and that's exactly why Separatists never want to talk about it. But the rest of Canada is willing to listen.

Quebec does not compare with the Scandinavian countries because their debt is 38% of GDP. Quebec's would be between 100 and 110 percent (right now, never mind what Quebec's GDP would end up when companies like BBD.B flee to Toronto).

Quebec's GDP is actually akin to Nigeria, not Sweden.

Quebec = 300 billion (now, as a stable province in the Country of Canada)

http://www.gouv.qc.ca/portail/quebec/pgs/commun/portrait/economie/PIB/?lang=en

Sweden is 538 billion

http://www.google.ca/publicdata/exp..._cd&idim=country:SWE&dl=en&hl=en&q=sweden+gdp

Nigeria = 273 billion (and they have oil)

http://www.gfmag.com/gdp-data-country-reports/207-nigeria-gdp-country-report.html#axzz24JB6lXjl

 

[gugu]

Of course. Nigeria. Sorry I did not think about it. 160M people, a rich country with a diversified economy. But sorry, they can't compare. We have corruption in Québec.

 

[Nokia]

Just talk of separation sent hundreds of thousands down the 401, actual separation will send millions away including myself.

 

[Zatara]

Here is something to think about. If Marois wins the election and there is just talk about a referendum for separation it will cost us big. If a date is set for a referendum, then nothing moves until that day. If they win a referendum that is when the the economy goes to crap. ( they are suggesting that a referendum can be initiated if 15% of the population signs a petition )

The early polls are tomorrow ( Sunday ) and Monday. I will vote early.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I'd be curious if they'd hold a referendum for the rest of Canada, on whether or not they want Quebec to separate from Canada.

I have a hunch that the number of Canadians wanting Quebec to leave Canada would be much higher than many believe. The rest of Canada is so sick n' tired of Quebec constantly whining & threatening to separate. Let them separate if they want to! Good riddance!! It'll be less of a burden on Canadian taxpayers' wallets!

 

[RobinX]

Charest's Liberals now in third place in the polls

Good News! or bad, depending on your point of view. The latest Leger poll, taken after the debates, now has Charest's Liberals in third place at 27% support, having been overtaken by the CAQ, which is now at 28%. The PQ is still in the lead at 33% and is poised to form a minority government. - Leger Marketing - Élections Québec 2012 - Sondage électoral - Publication 25 août 2012

Also, Charest continues to trail in his own Sherbrooke riding with 33% of the vote against 45% for the PQ candidate. So there is Good News all around, or bad. - Segma Recherche - 2e sondage électoral dans la circonscription de Sherbrooke (provinciale) - 23 août 2012

 

[gugu]

I was in remote area for the last fews days. Just got to see the latest poll:

1 so the debates did not change anything in the voting intentions;

2 I was absolutely right in answering the seminal question. The CAQ does not split vote, so helping the pQ, as suggested. CAQ's voters second vote intention is equally split, at 29%, between the PQ and the lib;

3 CAQ has a huge lead in the Capitale nationale region unparalleled with any other region. They call it the enigma of Québec. Some make a lnk with the popularity of the right wing radio (Radio X).

4 PQ's vote is definitive choice for 80% of PQ's voters. CAQ is at 68% and libs at 70%. That's in favor of PQ.

5 Quite surprizing second choice for the Parti vert voters: a split between the CAQ and QS. (But N=16 is too small to get the real picture.)

6 Amazing second choice for the PQ voters: 38% for QS. This is astonishing considering that PQ voters are not traditionally left. It shows the incredible credibility that Françoise David has in this society going back to her days at the FFQ.

 

[Doc Holliday]

It seems like the polls vary on a day-to-day basis. Just two days ago, a poll had the Liberals leading big. Majority gov't. That was after Marois' disastrous performance in the final debate against Legault. He totally destroyed her!

I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers totally change in a few days.

The only polls that will interest me are the ones that will come out 2-3 days prior to election day.

 

[RobinX]

Just two days ago, a poll had the Liberals leading big. Majority gov't.

You are referring to the Forum poll which has been dismissed as a rogue poll, and has been classified an an "outlier". An outlier is a statistical term which refers to a statistical observation that appears to deviate markedly from other members of the sample in which it occurs, and which is usually caused by statistical measurement errors. In layman's terms, the poll was wrong. Reference: Three Hundred Eight.com - Projection updated, PQ moves back into lead

The Forum poll from earlier this week was either capturing a momentary surge in Liberal support due to the Sunday debate or was completely out in left field. We cannot know for certain, but considering what other polls have shown we have to conclude that it was probably an outlier. Léger has indicated a relatively consistent trendline for all of the parties since their last survey, and riding polls released during the course of the week suggested no bump in Liberal support.

All other polls have consistently shown the PQ at 33% support since before the election was called, with the only question being whether the PQ would win a minority or majority.

 

[RobinX]

Amazing second choice for the PQ voters: 38% for QS. This is astonishing considering that PQ voters are not traditionally left.

I somewhat dispute your statement that the PQ voters are not traditionally left, for the following reasons:

• 1. There has always been a left-right dichotomy within the PQ, going back to it's earlier days, as evidenced by some of the more progressive PQ legislation such as anti-strikebreaking, anti-scab laws, laws dealing with women's rights, such as the right of a woman to keep her name when she marries, etc.
• 2. Quebec citizens are generally acknowledged to be more progressive left-leaning than other Canadians, as evidenced by their support for a more lenient justice system, especially when it comes to juvenile crime, support for strict gun control laws, support for gay rights, etc. Therefore, one needs to ask: Where did the progressive left-leaning Quebec vote go before the formation of Quebec Solidaire - certainly not the ADQ, now the CAQ, the Green Party only gets about 1% support in Quebec, and the Quebec Liberal Party certainly does not appeal to the left. Thus, by default, the left vote in Quebec had nowhere to go except to the PQ.
• 3. There are probably many left-leaning voters who still support the PQ rather than Quebec Solidaire for fear of splitting the sovereignist vote and allowing the Liberal to slip up the middle.

Just because the PQ establishment is not left-wing does not mean that the PQ does not get some left-wing support, especially since up until very recently there were very few alternatives.

 

[RobinX]

Amazing second choice for the PQ voters: 38% for QS. It shows the incredible credibility that Françoise David has in this society going back to her days at the FFQ.

It is important to mention also that the strong performance of Françoise David in the Radio-Canada debate was a major factor in rising support for Quebec Solidaire. Here is an amusing caricature which sums up the performance of Françoise David compared to that of the other leaders taking part in the debate - http://a1.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/574712_431300266916374_300549426_n.jpg

 

[Sol Tee Nutz]

Most of my out-laws are from the small towns around Drummondville, they do not hate the Liberals and want the plan nord. But they would like to see a PQ minority, do not trust Pauline with the referendum issue. Most are trying to figure out who to vote for so there is no majority government.

 

[gugu]

I somewhat dispute your statement that the PQ voters are not traditionally left, for the following reasons:

I have to agree that my statement needed to be more nuanced. I agree with your first point. However all the examples you give are from the first Lévesque government, a landmark in Québec political history. Things got more center right further in time.

Your second point looks true, most particularly in regards with the las federal election. True also that Québec has favored the liberal party over the conservatives in the past, with the noticeable exception of Mulroney. But the center left NDP is a creation of the West that had no echo in Québec until last election. There is a very articulate left in West Canada.

With those nuances I agree with you. Thanks for correcting me.

 

[Halloween Mike]

I didn't read the 12 pages... obviously, but lovemakers comment in the first page make me cringer and smile at the same time... How he said voting for the PQ was voting for french extremist or something like that. I would like to point something out. I respect MERB is english mostly(even tough french is permited) because lots of tourist also come here and check reviews and such, and i guess montreal is really 50/50 in term of french\the rest. But you guys need to understand something, the province of quebec is FRENCH, its the official language, we where conquered by english back then just like france was conquered by nazis in WW2, but the difference is we never got back what was rightfully ours, and thats our province being independant. Outside montreal the province is MAJORITY french, there is only in mtl you will get serve in english first. Never i was served in english at any business in sherbrooke or quebec city, 2 of the other 'major cities".

Don't get me wrong, i welcome the other races and cultures, but i agree with one thing that the PQ mention, they should be push to learn french instead of english and turning the province into spanish/chinese/indian that speak english. We resisted for hundred of years the english, and we must continue. Why Quebec could not be independant? Our territory is bigger than europeen countries... our culture is a miles away from english canada... If i go to china i expect to be served in chinese...or cantonese... whatever you want to call it, but if i go in montreal, i should expect to be serve in french. Gladly most clerks speak in french once they realise you speak it, but sometimes when they don't know it... it make me cringe yes... cause i expect if you WORK and are not just a tourist in a french province, you should speak it.

Not to mention it make me sick to still have to bare all those england royalties... paying for a queen i don't give a f.... seeing a person like lise thibault that fraud pleade some royalties BS... to be immune... ARG. Im not USA biggest fan, but at least they got rid of this stupid monarchy that is as as meaningless as a penny these days...

But if you ask the whole canada if we should drop the queen and the monarchy... sadly 50% or more would want to keep it... and on this... 10% if lucky in quebec only and that would be the english population...

Quebec is currently a prisoner in his own backyard, and i don't like that.

Now in term of elections, i will NOTE vote PQ because i despise Marois... she is a clown, and i hated they followed the students red square... Im thinking of either voting for Charest just for steping up against the students, or i will vote for a small party. CAQ seem like a car without a motor.... may look good but won't work, and Marois... just NO.